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AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Excess rights.

Friday, October 15, 2010

A friend who applied for 2,500 excess rights was given 100% of his application.

Another friend who applied for 365,000 excess rights was given 39,000 rights or 10.7% of his application.

A reader, SnOOpy88, commented this morning:
"Results are out in CDP A/C.
I got only 17% of excess over my rights. Good start for me.
Wonder what will be the pricing direction now, given that some of us had got shares at $0.155 ?
Huat ah..."

SnOOpy88 did not mention how many excess rights did he apply for.

From my friends' experience, it seems that the less excess rights we applied for, the larger the percentage of our application would be successful. I wonder how many excess rights I would be alloted.  I would know this evening when I open the mailbox, I guess. ;)

Congratulations to fellow unitholders who are successful in getting some excess rights.  Each lot of excess rights secured is equivalent to an immediate gain of S$65.00 based on the current market price of 22c per unit. That's a 42% gain! In the money! :-)

Related post:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Results of rights issue.

53 comments:

Hubert wee said...

Hmm..how come I only got 3.3% of the excess I applied for..

AK71 said...

Hi Hubert,

In LP's cbox just now, Elaine said she has 14 lots entitled and she applied for 40 lots excess but she only got 1 lot excess.

LP applied for 300 lots excess and got only 1.5 lots excess.

This led me to think that the initial investment size could be part of the equation as well.

So, someone with a large position in the REIT who applied for 300 lots excess could get more excess than someone with a smallish position who applied for 300 lots excess...

Anonymous said...

AK71
My wife's right entitlement was 33.6lots. Applied for 100 lots excess and got 2.4 lots excess right

My entitlement was 109.2 lots. Applied for 100 lots excess and got 8.8 lot excess right.

Hope that the above throws some light into their distribution of excess right.

Cheers

CS Tan

AK71 said...

Hi CS,

I think we need a mathematician to work out the formula. I am totally flummoxed!

Paging for LP, please help. ;)

Hubert wee said...

I received 14.4% of rights entitlement as excess, but did not have any odd lots.

What we need to know is the % of rights that were allocated to top up odd lots..

Odd lots get filled first, so excluding odd lots:

CS 8/109 (7.3%)
CS' wife 2/33 (6%)
LP 1/10 (10%)

I thought that the larger the holdings, the lower the % of excess rights received, but the reverse is true for CS and his wife's case..

mark said...

LOL.. I checked CDP. Its all there. I didnt check mail..

mark said...

I applied 2.5 lots, to round up my shares.. and i got my 100%. They did say priority is for rounding up. Its in the document they released. They also stated who has the least priority.

AK71 said...

Hi Hubert,

This is totally mind boggling. Anyway, I checked my DBS bank account to see how much was refunded as CDP's letter did not arrive today. Based on the refunded sum, I could work out how many excess rights I got.

I was entitled to 399,000 rights and I applied for 141,000 excess rights and I was alloted 20,000 excess rights. I do not have any odd lots to round up. So, what does that tell us about the process or formula?

AK71 said...

Hi Mark,

I think our good friend must thank his lucky stars. He had 35,000 entitled rights and applied for 365,000 excess rights and received 39,000 excess rights!

He received many more excess than his entitlement. I think he owes us a treat. ;)

I hope he did not get mixed up and the number of excess rights received was actually 4,000. Haha... Anyway, I am totally flummoxed as to how they allocate these excess rights. 8-p

Drizzt said...

have some good liao. i dun even have.

lol.

Drizzt
Investment Moats.com

AK71 said...

Hi Drizzt,

Why weren't you given any excess rights? You should have some odd lots to round up, right?

mark said...

AK, i think the order of priority is defined in their release.

Oh ok, well I have 17.5 lots entitlement (u can work out how many i have originally?) and applied for 2.5 lots excess. I got all 2.5 lots to round off my total holdings to 70 lots.

AK71 said...

Hi Mark,

Thanks for sharing the numbers. Who has precedence etc is published but we are now wondering at the exact formula used to arrive at the number of excess rights each of us have been given.

I believe it is a function of the following as well:

1. Initial investment size.

2. Number of excess rights applied for.

However, our good friend's claim on getting 39 lots of excess rights when his entitlement is only 35 lots threw a spanner into my weak attempt at mathematics.

Maybe, I should adopt Drizzt's attitude. Haha.. ;)

mark said...

AK - Oic... u want the formula. U will need to ask the dude from Numnb3rs hahah...

Lets look at it this way. The excess lots we have could be from someone who failed to pay for their rights on time. Suay for them, good for us. Any excess rights, is a bonus itself. No excess also ok, cause at least you werent like some who got their holdings diluted.

The point of it all today is, there are very few sellers cashing in? Or maybe they dont know how many they have so they cant sell. Next week it will be a clearer picture.

My attention is now turned to first reit.

Darryl said...

I applied 51 excess lots but only got 1 lot...disappointing...

la papillion said...

Hi AK,

I took up the challenge to decipher it, but I lack more data points to fit the model. I found out (from my limited data point) that the amount of excess rights given is related more to the amt of units held than the amount applied.

Your friend who got the 39 lots excess must be either very lucky (given us an outlier) or had made a mistake. He should be given 3 lots instead.

I corrected his data point and formed a linear model:

Amt of excess granted (include odd lots) = 0.017 (amt of units held upon XR) + 0.97

Most fit in with a 0.988 correlation coefficient (1.0 being the most linearly correlated) after correcting for outlier. If given more data points, I might be able to come out with a more accurate formula.

Formula doesn't make sense, because it means that anyone who applied will get at least 1 lot. Not sure if there's anyone who didn't get it. Is Drizzt vested in aims?

AK71 said...

Hi Mark,

Yes, next week would give a clearer picture. I agree. :)

From a TA perspective, price could retest 21.5c support. If that happens, I am waiting to get more. ;)

AK71 said...

Hi Darryl,

Would you mind letting us know how many rights were you entitled to? You have already told us you applied for 51 lots excess and was given only 1 lot.

We have to give LP a few more sets of numbers to test his formula. Thanks! :)

AK71 said...

Hi LP,

Let us hope that more would come forward with their sets of numbers:

1. Entitled rights.

2. Excess rights applied for.

3. Excess rights given.

I think my friend could possibly have made a mistake. He says he would double check when he is back in Singapore next week. I am happy for him if he is an outlier, actually. ;)

Now that you say,
"I found out (from my limited data point) that the amount of excess rights given is related more to the amt of units held than the amount applied.", I feel like kicking myself for not applying for more excess rights! :(

I wonder if Drizzt got his units during CR or XR. He didn't say. Hmm..

Darryl said...

Hi AK71, my entitlement was only 7 lots.

Thanks for taking the effort to try to figure out the allotment ratio...

I am quite curious too...

Anonymous said...

Hi AK

To add, I owned 22 lots and have 7700 rights. Applied for all rights and got only 1700 excess allocated. I can't remember exactly which part of 30K+ excess that I had applied for.

Anyway, I am happy to get something in excess that I can afford and make a paper gain. ^-^

I'd remember that they say something like priorty will be given to rounding up of odd lots and something, with staff/directors/majority shareholders last in the queue.

Everyone huat ah

SnOOpy88

Hubert wee said...

What's done is done. No point over-analysing it..I wonder if there is anyone who didn't get any excess rights? Must ask Raelynn, who had 5000 units..

AK71 said...

Hi Darryl,

Thanks for this. :)

LP is the one who is trying to figure out the formula. I am not much of a mathematician. ;)

Anonymous said...

Sorry for missing this format, here is my input

1. Entitled rights. = 7700

2. Excess rights applied for = 31300

3. Excess rights given = 1300

1300/7700 = 17%

Hoped this help to pin point the tikam.

SnOOpy88

AK71 said...

Hi SnOOpy88,

It is strange that you have 7700 entitled rights but given 1700 excess. Then, you would still end up with odd lots, right? They should round up by giving you 1300 or 2300 excess rights. Do you mean 1300? ;)

AK71 said...

Hi Hubert,

Paging for Raelynn. :)

I don't think we are over-analysing. I mean people play with puzzles for centuries as a pastime. I would like to treat this as such. ;)

AK71 said...

Hi SnOOpy88,

Haha... Our comments were one minute from each other. OK, you got 1300 excess rights allocate. Gotcha. :)

bummy said...

AK, Mark,

Just checked my bank account, you guys were right, i misread by CDP online.

Cash Position as follows :

1. Entitled rights. 35,000
2. Excess rights applied for. 365,000
3. Excess rights given. 4,000

Unable to check my SRS position.

LP, i am not sure if i follow your linear model. Can you give an example please.

la papillion said...

Hi bummy,

So you're the one, haha :)

Just trying to fit some linear model into 9 data points that I had. Found out that the amt of lots given are highly linearly correlated to one thing: the amt of holding you have before XR. Almost nothing to do with the amt of excess rights applied.

I'll do a proper presentation when I find some time, but presently, I've 2 models. One is based on correcting the data to remove odd lots (as Hubert suggested) and the other is to use the raw data. Both are good enough approximation, with the one suggested by Hubert being marginally more linearly correlated.

Here it is:
No. of lots of excess rights granted excluding odd lots = 0.017 x (no of lots held before XR)+ 1.06

E.g if you have 50 lots before XR, the amt of excess rights granted without counting the odd lots = 0.017*50 + 1.06 = 1.91

Which is about 2.

But 50 lots gives you 17.5 lots entitled, so to round off to nice lots, should add 0.5 lots to 2, you shld get 2.5 excess.

-----
Sorry if I'm over analysing..I just find it fun to solve such problems. I'm kinda weird, I know haha

Drizzt said...

if you look at the date of my purchase is after ex rights.

its ok i am happy for you guys. the price still stayed quite high.

Drizzt
Investment Moats.com

LK said...

Hi ppl,

Its interseting to analyse the data. Here's my input to help have a more accurate model:

1. Entitled rights: 14000

2. Excess rights applied for. 30000

3. Excess rights given. 1000

Cheers,
LK

Hubert wee said...

Your formula means that everyone will get at least 1 lot, if they applied for at least 1 excess? Any exceptions?

AK71 said...

Hi bummy,

That's my suspicion too. You blur blur while having fun on vacation. ;)

4 lots excess, entitled 35 lots. Still better than me: 20 lots excess, entitled 399 lots. I should get at least 40 lots excess, by proportion! Oh, well.

AK71 said...

Hi LP,

Thanks for taking the effort to decipher this. Really an eye opener. :)

Based on your discovery:
No. of lots of excess rights granted excluding odd lots = 0.017 x (no of lots held before XR)+ 1.06

I should get 0.017x1140+1.06= 20.44. Guess what! I got 20 lots excess! You are amazing! How on earth did you do this?

OK, I feel better now. Thanks a bunch, LP. :)

AK71 said...

Hi Drizzt,

I realised that on hindsight too. Thanks for confirming this. :)

21.5c is a strong support, I believe. I would like to buy more. ;)

Hi LK,

I think LP cracked the problem already. Amazing!

Thanks for the contribution. :)

Hi Hubert,

LP is uber cool mathematician! No wonder he is uber popular maths tutor!

To anyone reading this who might need a maths tutor, look for LP at Bully the Bear!

Hubert wee said...

Hmm it doesn't quite match with bummy's

100*0.017 + 1.06= 2.67, but he received 4 lots excess

AK71 said...

Hi Hubert,

Yes, bummy should get 3 lots as per LP's formula! Bummy's guardian angel must be working overtime or maybe his guardian angel works for AA REIT. ;p

Anonymous said...

Hi AK,

Here's my input:

1. Entitled rights: 155050

2. Excess rights applied for: 115000

3. Excess rights given: 7950 (950 for rounding off of odd lots)

Pretty sound formula for me.

Rgds,
Wee~

AK71 said...

Hi Wee,

Thanks so much for helping to verify LP's formula! Congratulations on all those rights you got. Huat ah! :)

Anonymous said...

Hi AK71 and LP

Many thanks for breaking the secret code.

Cheers

CS TAN

mark said...

LP - Using your example of 50 lots, it seems right. I got 50 lots, given 17.5 lots. Applied for 2.5 lots and got all 2.5 excess lots.

Gotta pack n prepare for my trip to the airport liao. Have a good weekend all!

AK71 said...

Hi CS,

LP is really good with numbers! I am impressed. :)

Hi Mark,

Have a good trip. :)

Anonymous said...

May I ask if anyone has bought AA-Reits with their CPF ?

In this case where you own the counter under cash (CDP) and CPF, will it still be 1 letter to you saying your total rights entitled is xxxx units ? In the case of excess, same way of applying via ATM ? Will it be spilt between the CDP & CPF holdings ?

Kiam sia for any insights here

SnOOpy88

la papillion said...

Hi guys,

Haha, don't think I cracked the code. It's at best an estimate. The model gets worse when dealing with 300 lots and above, because there's insufficient data. I think we have enough of number crunching, haha :)

Thanks AK for the flattery...I'm not a mathematician lah, just engineering trained, haha

AK71 said...

Hi SnOOpy88,

Wow! You have more in your CPF Investment Account? Congratulations. :)

AK71 said...

Hi LP,

Not flattery. Sincere compliments. :)

Oh yah, you are an engineering grad. Now, I know why being good at maths is important to be an engineer. Sorry, I am very clueless about these things lah. ;)

Thanks again for taking the time to do this. :)

Anonymous said...

AK.

Before I have my HDB, I had parked some $$ into some UT. This way, in case I cannot repay the loan, there is a buffer $ to cushion the repayment.

Anyway, that is no longer needed and CPFIA is now free from it's intentions. However, I am facing paperloss over some UT that I had stupidly invested over the years. One of them is about to breakeven soon and I will want to do something with it.

Is there any word to my original question ?

Thanks

SnOOpy88

AK71 said...

Hi SnOOpy88,

It does not seem as if anyone is in the same boat as you, having AA REIT in both cash and CPF IA. :(

I also have a couple of UTs left which are still in the red. No eyes see.

Raelynn said...

initial holdings: 10,000
entitled rights: 3,500
applied excess: 5,000
allotted excess: 1,500

AK71 said...

Hi Raelynn,

Thanks for the input. Seems to fit in with the formula LP came up with. :)

Anonymous said...

Hi Snoopy,

I happen to have AIMS in both my CDP and CPF accounts. Besides the letter from CDP, you will receive another from the CPF bank, informing you of your rights entitlement, together with the required info.

For CPF, if I remember correctly, the closing date for application is earlier. Ensure that you have enough funds in your CPF, else you can top up with cash. You can return the acceptance and excess rights application form to the bank via mail or directly at the bank.

Just received the results for rights allocation (CPF) today.

Rights Allocation (CPF)
1. Entitled rights: 18900

2. Excess rights applied for: 11100

3. Excess rights given: 2100

Wee~

AK71 said...

Hi Wee,

Thanks for sharing your experience with us. Very useful for some of us, I am sure. :)

Congratulations on the rights you received. :)

Anonymous said...

Thanks Wee. It clears the air, that my broker was unable to answer.

This part will be my greatest turn off as I am often travelling.

"You can return the acceptance and excess rights application form to the bank via mail or directly at the bank."

SnOOpy88

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