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China Hongxing, Healthway Medical, Sabana REIT and First REIT.

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

I was wondering whether to take a break from blogging tonight but once I switched on my computer, I just had to check my blog. Before I knew it, I was blogging. This is a most serious addiction.

China Hongxing: Last night, "Closing at 17c is resistance provided by the falling 50dMA which just completed a dead cross with the rising 100dMA recently. Technically, China Hongxing has just broken out of its downtrend but it remains to be seen if 17c resistance could be turned into support. Falling back under 17c would mean that the downtrend is still intact.

So, 17c is still resistance and I see strong support at 15.5c. If volume does not expand on the next upmove to push past resistance, the declining 50dMA could well prescribe the next downtrend resistance. However, with the MACD rising towards zero, we could see momentum turning positive. This counter bears watching.

Healthway Medical: Last night, "Price could first retreat to 16c, a many times tested resistance and now possible support, before closing the gap at 15.5c. In case the bearish reversal signals are nullified in the next session, the upside target is still 18.5c."

Its share price closed at 16c today and I fully expect 15.5c to be a strong support, if tested. Both MFI and RSI are retreating from the borders of their overbought regions and we could see them retreating to retest their uptrend support lines. This would mean a further weakening in price and a thinning in volume. I would want to see support holding up nicely before venturing with another long position here. Overly cautious? Perhaps but that's what I would do.

Sabana REIT: Last night, "the white spinning top, a possible reversal signal, formed today on low volume is encouraging. Volume was the lowest since the REIT started trading in late November. OBV also seems to be rising since 7 Dec, suggesting continual if mild accumulation since. Selling pressure has weakened and if 92.5c was ever tested again, it would be a stronger support as market participants would remember it as the price they missed out on to go long. The worst could be over."

Volume expanded nicely as price rose to hit a high of 96.5c before closing at 95.5c. There is some selling pressure as suggested by the upper wick of the white candle. However, selling pressure is much weaker now and OBV suggests that accumulation is ongoing.  For anyone who is thinking of investing in Sabana REIT, it would seem as if things have stabilised. Technically, 94c (the 38.2% Fibo line) and 93.5c (the 23.6% Fibo line) are fairly safe entry prices now.

First REIT: Last night, "What we see today is a textbook example of a bullish harami, a bullish reversal candlestick setup."

We have confirmation of the bullish signals formed yesterday. Buy signal seen on the MACD histogram. Price gapped up, starting the day at 68c, touched a high of 69.5c and closed at 69c. Resistance provided by the 100dMA at 68.5c was taken out with ease. With volume much lower, it suggests that there is a lack of sellers which allowed little buying to push up the price. 68.5c could be resistance turned support. Next resistance level is at 70c.

The rights closed at 17.5c today and for anyone who is thinking of investing in First REIT, buying the rights at 17.5c would make more sense than buying units in First REIT at 69c. There is a 1.5c difference which is a 2.18% savings. If there should be further selling down tomorrow, I would buy more, tomorrow being the last day for the trading of nil-paid rights. 22 Dec is the last day for the acceptance and payment of the rights.


CL said...

"I was wondering whether to take a break from blogging tonight but once I switched on my computer, I just had to check my blog. Before I knew it, I was blogging. This is a most serious addiction"

don worry its a good habit. :)

AK71 said...

Hi CL,

You think so? Sigh, any form of addiction is bad or so my doctor tells me. I am beginning to fear my blog. Could I have created a monster? This was a question I posed to LP, the blog master of Bully the Bear when I met him and his missus for lunch not too long ago. ;-p

Anonymous said...

Perhaps "passion" sounds better than "addiction"? Ever heard of the "flow" experience? It's good for you :)


AK71 said...

Hi Victor,

"Passion" sounds way better. "Flow" experience? Sounds like Taiji. I will go read about it. Thanks! :)

AK71 said...

Hi Victor,

"According to Csíkszentmihályi, flow is completely focused motivation. It is a single-minded immersion and represents perhaps the ultimate in harnessing the emotions in the service of performing and learning. In flow the emotions are not just contained and channeled, but positive, energized, and aligned with the task at hand. To be caught in the ennui of depression or the agitation of anxiety is to be barred from flow. The hallmark of flow is a feeling of spontaneous joy, even rapture, while performing a task."

Wow! I like this! :-)

Anonymous said...

Sabana Reit went up to .98 today.People who brought .925 shall be happy now.


AK71 said...

Hi TN,

Sabana REIT has bottomed. :)

Unfortunately, my BUY queue at 92.5c was not filled the day it went that low. Anyway, when I checked then, only 4 lots were sold at 92.5c. It was touch and go. 150% Fibo line was a strong support.

WK said...

today last day of first reit trading right? so its time to pay up? :)

AK71 said...

Hi WK,

I just went to the ATM earlier this evening to pay for entitled and excess rights.

We have till 22 Dec to pay up. Please refer to the package they sent to us for details. :)

Anonymous said...

Sabana Reit hit .99. Will it reach the IPO price for this year.


AK71 said...

Hi TD,

I can only say that it is obvious that Sabana REIT bottomed at 92.5c. Could it recover to its IPO price? Your guess is as good as mine. :)

Anonymous said...

It went up to 1.00 today.:)


AK71 said...

Hi TN,

Very nice! Congratulations! :)

If only my 92.5c buy queue was filled so many weeks ago. Oh, well.

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