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Sabana REIT, Golden Agriculture, First REIT and K-Green Trust.

Monday, December 6, 2010

Sabana REIT retested its low of 96c today. To top it off, it closed at 96c. Distribution activity continues for the seventh straight session. This is quite obvious when we look at the OBV. I said before that I could consider getting some if the yield is greater than 9%. Technically, if 96c gives way, the 123.6% Fibo line is at 94.5c and the 138.2% is at 93.5c. I might buy some at those levels.


Golden Agriculture formed an inverted black hammer today, closing at 74c after moving higher in the day. This is a bearish development. I remain wary of the negative divergence between price and volume. I would like to see the uptrend support retested and that is when I might add to my position.  This is currently at 70c.




First REIT's trading volume has been declining as price stayed at and above the immediate support at 73.5c. The momentum oscillators are positive and the MACD is rising above the signal line in positive territory. All very nice but as volume dwindles, we have to be wary. If we had missed loading up earlier, loading up now at 73.5c carries a higher risk, technically speaking, even though the uptrend is intact.


Immediate support at 73.5c with the next support at 71.5c and this is also where we find the rising 20dMA. Looking back, this counter has a history of relying on the 20dMA for support as it moved higher. So, buying at the 20dMA is safer.



K-Green Trust broke its immediate support at $1.04 and touched a low of $1.03. Immediate resistance is now at $1.06 while we could see the low of $1 achieved on 1 July retested. All the momentum oscillators are downtrending. The declining OBV suggests continual distribution taking place. I had originally thought of buying more at $1 but I might want to wait for clearer signs of a reversal before taking action now.


Related posts:
Sabana REIT: Fundamental analysis.
Golden Agriculture: Levitation act.
First REIT: XR and fair value.
K-Green Trust: A bad investment?

6 comments:

Drizzt said...

very disappointed with K-Green. it looks a dud to me. wonder if i should be divesting

Drizzt
Investment Moats.com

AK71 said...

Hi Drizzt,

At my entry price of $1.11, if KGT retains the status quo, the real yield is about 1 to 2% per annum, assuming none of the concessions are renewed.

However, if KGT goes on the acquisition trail, which I think it would, this could change dramatically. Being a business trust, it could gear beyond 45% and, to top it off, it has 0 gearing at the moment. So, there is much potential.

I will wait and see. :)

Drizzt said...

still i think i regreted my impulsive decision in this case

AK71 said...

Hi Drizzt,

All of us have our share of bad judgement. We learn from each experience. Don't be too hard on yourself. :)

Anonymous said...

FR is 70-70.5 today.

Is it a good entry point to start hawk-eyeing for 69-70 cents ? or it is gonna be tough

SnOOpy168

AK71 said...

Hi SnOOpy168,

I do not see any reason to sell down units in First REIT below 70c. At 70c, with an annualised DPU of 6.4c in 2011, that's a yield of 9.14%.

There was massive sell down at 71c today. Whether there will be sustained selling down, I don't know but if it does go under 70c, I will buy more. :)

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