SPH, Healthway Medical and Golden Agriculture

SPH
After the positive newsflow yesterday, SPH powered upwards to $3.82 forming a wickless white candle today. This effectively broke the resistance provided by the declining 200wMA at $3.80. As the white candle day took place on the back of very much higher volume, the target of $4.00 which I identified in earlier posts looks attainable. This is especially so with the MFI rising rapidly today but has yet to reach the overbought region. To those who hedged and bought some when SPH was at support ($3.60 to $3.62) recently, congratulations.

Healthway Medical
A black candle day and Healthway Medical closed lower at 18c on higher volume. The gravestone doji was a harbinger of bad news, after all. MFI continues to decline and is emerging out of the overbought region. Expectation is for the weakness to continue. Support levels identified in an earlier post are still valid.Healthway Medical: Black spinning top.

Golden Agriculture
A white candle day on reduced volume does not impress me. Unable to gap close on a white canlde day is a bearish sign and the gap resistance at 61.5c remains. I am still of the view that the price will weaken and, therefore, I shall wait to accumulate at supports on the way down. If the price should rise instead and the gap resistance is taken out, initial resistance would be the recent high of 65.5c and the eventual target is 69c.

Saizen REIT impresses

Saizen REIT broke the 17c resistance level, forming a wickless white candle and closing at 18c in the process. This is on the back of very much higher volume and, if the move is confirmed in the next session, effectively turns the 17c resistance into support in the near term. The rising MFI is on the way to forming a higher high. As the index is not overbought yet, a follow through in the next session might see the initial target of 19c tested.

Please refer to my post on 11 Jan for a recap. In that post, I said "if 17c is taken out convincingly, the initial target is 19c. The rapidly declining 100wMA at 21c should put a cap on gains should 19c be taken out this week."Saizen REIT: Sell signal negated. If 21c is taken out, I see an eventual target of 24c which was a candlestick support level that gave way decisively in October 2008 and is now a gap resistance.

Saizen REIT is one of the three counters I've identified in the last few months that would help to build my wealth in 2010. Its fundamentals have strengthened and the market will recognise this in the usual way. Three portfolios and three counters: future gains and passive income

AusGroup closed unchanged

AusGroup closed unchanged at 68.5c, forming an inverted black hammer in the process. This was after forming a doji yesterday. Both candlesticks are signs of a possible reversal. Volume on both days were relatively low which suggests that the selling pressure is probably easing and AusGroup has found support. The flattening 100dMA happens to be at 68.5c. Over a longer term, the MFI is still uptrending and the counter's current weakness might just be temporary. The fast rising 200dMA is a positive. A hedge at 68.5c for someone who does not yet have a position in this counter is not a bad idea. To accumulate, I always like to buy on the way down at every support level. 68.5c looks like one to me. If 68.5c breaks, the next support is at 66c.

Resistance is provided by the rising 200wMA at 74.5c which also happens to be the most recent high achieved on 5 Jan 10. Overcoming this resistance level would give an intial target of 78.5c and an eventual target of 83c, a candlestick support level which broke decisively in June 2008.

Golden Agriculture: A choppy journey

My blog is pretty new but if you have been following my writings for at least the last week or so, you would know that I'm big on Golden Agriculture. In a post on Christmas Day, I wrote about three portfolios and three counters. One of the counters is Golden Agriculture which I called a cyclical counter as it is most sensitive of the three (the other two being Healthway Medical, a growth counter, and Saizen REIT, a yield counter) to economic cycles.

In that post, I said, "Currently at 49c. This is the second largest crude palm oil (CPO) producer in the region. It is heavily levered to the price of CPO compared to Wilmar which has a greater percentage of income from downstream activities. Whether we look at PE, ROA, ROE or Gross Margin, Golden Agriculture looks better than Wilmar. With the improving global economy, the demand for CPO has increased. With the rising price of crude oil, there will be a further increase in demand for CPO as an important source of biofuel. The journey up will be choppy which makes this a perfect counter for trading."Three portfolios and three counters: future gains and passive income

If anyone who were not vested before had taken a position in Golden Agriculture then and sold in the last few sessions at resistance levels on the way up, say at 54c and 62c, he would have made a handsome profit. I know it reached a high of 65.5c but few would have been able to time it that well.

From my earlier chart reading, I said we might soon have a golden opportunity to load up on Golden Agriculture again with a correction in price as true to expectations, the ride is choppy.Golden Agriculture: A golden opportunity.

Crude oil has been trading lower and is down at US$79.13 as of now. Crude palm oil (CPO) has been down for a few sessions now, closing at RM2,510 in the last session, down 1.8%. There is concern that rising production and lower exports may drive stock levels to a new record high. Apparently, America is having a good harvest of soybeans as well which will help put a lid on the price of CPO as a greater availability of soyoil will dampen the demand for CPO.

With such negative newsflow and as Golden Agriculture is the most levered to the price of CPO amongst all the CPO companies listed in Singapore, it will bear the brunt of lowered expectations. With a bearish chart to boot, I would be surprised if Golden Agriculture does not test those support levels identified in my earlier posts.

SPH: Net income in Q1 doubles

SPH delivered a set of impressive results, as expected, as first-quarter net income rose to $144.7 million from $73 million a year earlier. This is likely to give its share price a bit of a push upwards tomorrow despite the bland technicals.

Rising 100dMA provides support at $3.62 and with the positive news flow, it should limit any downside. If price closes above $3.69, a many times tested resistance level tomorrow, it would likely move up to test the resistance provided by the declining 200wMA at $3.80. Breaking $3.80 would give a target of $4.00.

Healthway Medical: A grave situation?

Towards the last half hour of the trading day, it was quite apparent that the bears have won the day. There were too many sellers with almost no buyers and price closed at 18.5c to form a gravestone doji. Selling down activity accounted for 24.6m shares while buying up activity accounted for a paltry 1.2m shares.

The steep uptrend seems ultimately unsustainable. Sell signal on the MACD is confirmed while the MFI moved lower, remaining overbought. Even though the continuing sideways movement in price is taking place on the back of reducing volume, without any significant buying up activity, price is likely to lower in time.

Strategy: I have divested more of my position in Healthway Medical in the last half hour of the trading day. What remains is 20% of my original investment. I now look forward to accumulating at supports as the expectation is for the counter to do a correction in price.

Golden Agriculture: A golden opportunity

Golden Agriculture confirmed the bearish signals seen yesterday with a gap down today. Opening at the psychologically important 60c level, it quickly turned that into a resistance level, resulting in a black candle day on rather high volume. Sell signal is confirmed on the MACD. The MFI continues to decline, moving out of the overbought territory in the process. The counter is no longer overbought but such black candle days usually have some momentum and the expectation is for a further decline in price. A major support level is at 54c.

Despite the fall in price, the uptrend for Golden Agriculture is still intact. I have drawn three trendline supports in blue, orange and purple colors. Comparing the high achieved just three sessions ago with the trendline supports, we get an idea of how the rapid rise in price was not sustainable. It would be nice to see the blue trendline tested sometime in the next few sessions and holding, failing which the orange trendline comes into play. With improving fundamentals, I do not expect Golden Agriculture to fall to test the purple trendline but, of course, nothing is for sure.

Strategy: This correction presents a golden opportunity to accumulate. Having divested 90% of my position at every resistance level on the way up, I will now accumulate at every support level on the way down.

Mid-afternoon take: AusGroup

On 9 Jan, I wrote in a post that "AusGroup had a sell signal on the MACD on Thursday (7 Jan). In the near term, price seems set to go lower. Initial support is at 69c, a many times tested candlestick support level. The cluster of rising 20dMA, 50dMA and 100dMA, all within close proximity of each other, should limit downside to 66c which coincides with the 50% Fibo line."AusGroup

AusGroup closed at 68.5c in yesterday's session and is now hugging the 100dMA and the 20dMA supports which are at 68.5c and 68c respectively. MFI has formed a lower high indicating weakened buying momentum and the OBV has gone flat. Despite the ugly black candle formed in the last session, the uptrend is still intact. If the support at 68c gives way, next support is provided by the 50dMA at 66c.

The current uptrend is negated if price closes below 65c this week. From a technical perspective, the probability of this happening is rather low. Having said this, we want to see AusGroup forming a higher low to confirm the uptrend in the next few sessions. The previous low was at 63c on 23 Dec 09.

Confirming the signs

A host of negatives with Alcoa reporting a US$277 million loss, the U.S. Commerce Department reporting a deficit in international trade of goods and services which expanded 9.7% to US$36.40 billion and with China raising its banks’ reserve ratio to cool economic growth, sent markets lower.

After wondering aloud if we were seeing the beginnings of a correction last evening, the STI confirmed my suspicion this morning in a most sporting manner. If we look at the daily chart, sell signal on the MACD was spotted on 7 Jan. Candlesticks are detaching from the upper limits of the Bollinger bands as the MFI formed a lower high. Movement has a definite downward bias on a decline in buying momentum. With the MACD poised to do a bearish crossover, more downside cannot be ruled out.

The previous uptrend channel resistance for the STI should now provide support at 2,860 through early next week. If the index breaks this support, it would rejoin the channel. Having said this, with the 20dMA, 50dMA and 100dMA all rising and each within 70 points of each other, more or less. The outlook for STI's uptrend is still good. The correction will be a good opportunity to accumulate shares of good companies as prices move closer to supports.

Reading the signs

Are we seeing the beginnings of a correction? The European markets are now in negative territory. U.S. futures are also down as of now. I personally feel that we are missing a much needed correction. A correction will be good as it shakes out the weaker holders. It also allows unwinding of overbought conditions and lets serious investors accumulate more at lower prices. This gives a more solid platform for further advances in future.

For the counters I'm actively watching, there is nothing remarkable. So, I'm just going to list my observations here:

Saizen REIT:
There is no follow through on the MFI today. The uptick in buying momentum seen yesterday fizzled out today. 17c remains the resistance to watch while downside support is seen at 15.5c. All the MAs on the daily chart are rising with the exception of the 100dMA which is flat. With all the MAs clustering closer together, there is limited downside in this counter but I am still waiting for a pullback closer to support before accumulating more.

Healthway Medical
We have a sell signal on the MACD today on the daily chart. The MFI has turned down, indicating a reduction in buying momentum but the index is still in the overbought territory and should have some way to fall. The price action has finally detached from the upper limits of the Bollinger bands as it closed at 18.5c today. Initial support is at 16.5c. I will accumulate at every support level on the way down just like how I sold at every resistance level on the way up.

Golden Agriculture
The chart is similar to Healthway's. We have a sell signal on the MACD and the MFI has turned down although it's still in the overbought territory. Price action formed an ugly black candle on rather high volume. Closing under 62c, the previous target price and resistance, is ominous. Initial support is at a round number, 60c. If that breaks, a strong support band is to be found at 52c to 54c.

SPH
Although SPH averted a sell signal on the MACD, price action formed a devilish inverted cross, a bearish candlestick pattern. MFI is still rangebound even though it has moved to the upper end of the range identified in my earlier TA while OBV has turned down again. I like SPH but I will wait a bit more to accumulate at a lower price.

Healthway Medical: A beautiful symmetry

Healthway Medical closed 0.5c higher at 19c today on much reduced volume. MFI has flattened in the overbought region and OBV inched up ever so slightly. I am a believer in chart patterns. See how the cup formation troughed at 9.5c and topped out at 14.5c? The target price in case of a breakout of the top of the formation is just a projection of the trough to the top and beyond which gives us 19.5c. This target price was reached in just one week from the midpoint of the cup pattern at 12c. Fast and furious indeed. Will it find fuel to extend the run or will it soon turn lower? It is quite obvious that there is more risk of a downside than a probability of an upside at this stage. I sold more shares in Healthway Medical today and I am left holding only 25% of my original investment. Why not sell all? It pays to remember that the market can be perverse. Always hedge.

Breaking 19.5c resistance will give an eventual target of 24c. Any correction in price will find initial support at 16.5c with a stronger support at 15c.

Saizen REIT: Sell signal negated

Saizen REIT's sell signal on the MACD was negated today with the MFI turning up and forming a higher low in the process. Are things picking up? The price closed at 17c today which is a resistance level provided by the previous high on 26 Aug 09. However, the volume which accompanied the upmove today was much lower and in fact, the negative divergence between price and volume from early October till now is quite clear.

If 17c is taken out convincingly, the initial target is 19c. The rapidly declining 100wMA at 21c should put a cap on gains should 19c be taken out this week. I continue to see support at 15.5c and will wait to accumulate at that level.

SPH: Moving up for real?

SPH has a nice white candle day with the rising 100dMA seemingly giving it a bit of a push. This prevented the MACD from completing a bearish crossover. However, putting on 7c to close at $3.69, a many times tested candlestick resistance and support level, on relatively low volume is not very convincing. As the MFI shows, the buying momentum has been rangebound between 13% and 50% for more than two months now and has been steadily forming lower highs since August 2009. OBV still shows a downward trend that is levelling off with no significant increase in accumulation activity per se. Unless there is a meaningful increase in volume together with a move up in price, SPH is unlikely to break out of resistance.

The rising 20wMA provides immediate support at S$3.62. While breaking the resistance provided by the declining 200wMA at $3.80 gives SPH an eventual target of $4.00 which was a strong support level that gave way decisively in July 2008, a break below $3.62 would see more downside.SPH: A chance to accumulate?

Golden Agriculture: defying gravity

Golden Agriculture gapped up today to start the day at 62c which was the eventual target price and resistance level which I identified in earlier TA. A friend SMS me halfway through the morning to say, "Golden Agriculture is on drugs. It's 65c now!" Indeed, if Golden Agriculture took part in the Olympics, it might have tested positive for steroids as it reached a high of 65.5c and closed at 64.5c on increased volume! Most impressive.

In my previous TA on Golden Agriculture, I said that if 62c is taken out, the next target is 69c. If the price action stays as energetic as it did in the last few sessions, 69c might be reached sooner rather than later. However, it is likely to be a stronger resistance than 62c as it is not only a candlestick resistance/support level, it is also a 123.6% (in red) and a 161.8% Fibo line (in green). Drawing two sets of Fibo lines instead of one is what I do sometimes to find very strong resistance or support levels. MFI has pushed higher into the overbought territory and OBV shows continuing accumulation. With the MFI so overbought at 98%, I wonder how much longer can the gravity defying upmove continue. In keeping with my style which incorporates hedging, I am now 90% divested.

Healthway Medical: A seven months journey

One of the best performers in my portfolio in recent times has to be Healthway Medical. I started accumulating shares in the company in June 2009 at 10c and I was actively contributing in various forums on why Healthway was a value buy and how its intrinsic value should have been higher. I walked the talk and was actively buying up more shares in Healthway Medical over time and my last purchase was in December 2009.

I had to constantly explain to people why I was so convinced that Healthway Medical was a value buy. Most were more attracted to Parkway or RMG. To be fair, there were believers and there were skeptics. Here were some of my replies (edited for brevity in some cases):

7 Nov 09:
I started accumulating shares in Healthway earlier this year at 10c.
Fundamentally, a strong company....... Successfully breaking the top of the cup formation seen earlier at 14.5c would give an immediate target of 17c and an eventual target of 19.5c. Patience will be rewarded.

9 Nov 09
I am not too concerned about Healthway paying little or no dividend. This is a growth stock, not a dividend stock. I opted for scrip dividend instead of cash the last time.

There will always be growing pains and uncertainty. That's why Healthway is trading at 11x PE while RMG is trading at 19x PE. There is a discount for risk but I feel that it's too heavily discounted. A 17c target which translates into a PE of 14x for Healthway is realistic.

23 Nov 09
Healthway's chart is interesting. Its price is going through a protracted consolidation period after the cup formation was completed in August. 9.5c is the lowest point of the cup while the brim is at 14.5c. The halfway point is 12c.

The lowest price in the consolidation period since August is 12c in late October. This cup with a very long handle is seeing volume dwindle over time. As the MFI and Stochastics show, there is simply no momentum in this counter since mid August. However, OBV shows consistent accumulation and this picture has not changed.

This is a counter for long term investors but if I'm going to do a bit of crystal ball gazing, I am willing to hazard a guess that price might see a significant upmove end of this year or early next year. Rising 20wMA and 100dMA at 12.5c should limit any downside.

2 Dec 09
Some say that Q&M is overpriced. I am of the opinion that Healthway is too cheap and should trade closer to Q&M's PE. A PE of 14 for Healthway translates into a price of only 17c. At 19.5c, the PE would be about 16.5 which, I feel, is about right. The current weakness in Healthway's price presents an opportunity to accumulate and I've done so.

4 Dec 09
Insiders can sell shares in the company for many reasons. Maybe, they are buying a new property or meeting some other expenses.

I am not usually concerned when one or two insiders sell some of their shares. I will, however, take notice if insiders are selling en masse and in larger percentages which is not the case here. In the last dividend payouts, insiders opted for scrip dividends rather than cash. Updates on 20 Nov 09. I did the same.....

13 Dec 09
...How do I usually decide on whether a company is a worthwhile investment these days? Firstly, I look at the sector versus the economy. Secondly, I look at the company's numbers to ensure that it is not over-valued, that it is profitable, that it is not too highly geared and that it has good cashflow. Thirdly, I compare the company's numbers to its peers. There are other things which I might look at in time but these 3 points form the core of my fundamental analyses. Then, I use technical analysis (charting) to decide on fair entry points.....

13 Dec 09
I only took notice of Healthway as its price was recovering from its bottom this year. I was attracted to it because of its dominant position in the domestic primary healthcare sector. This, I viewed as a strength in times of recession as it did not depend so much on medical tourism like RMG and Parkway do. It is a business that, even if managed by a conservative management, would continue to benefit from strong cashflow and would in time amass a cash hoard. My first purchase was at 10c. This was below its NAV at the time.

Since then, the more I learned about the company and the business, the more convinced I am about the future of the company. My concerns regarding the fundamentals of the business have been mostly addressed.

In terms of the price, it is seeing some weakness. I believe that 12c should hold. It is exactly the halfway point of the cup pattern which I identified earlier. Price action might be going through what Darryl Guppy calls "correction using time".

You have asked me questions on the history of the company but I'm afraid I do not have the answers as I'm quite a new shareholder (and do not have the emotional baggage and knowledge of older shareholders).

Taking a leaf from Dr. Tony Tan's book, I do know that I have taken care of the downside in my fundamental analysis of the company. I will leave the upside to take care of itself. I can wait.

On Christmas Eve of 2009, I wrote an article in my blog titled Healthway Medical: Growing a defensive business. My blog was still very new at the time but I've been a firm believer for 6 months by then.

I have, by now, divested 50% of my position in Healthway Medical, selling at every resistance level which is my style. The technical target of 19.5c has been achieved in just one week. I am still rubbing my eyes in disbelieve, to tell the truth. A correction at this point in time would be healthy. Of course, Mr. Market is always right and my opinion should not matter. To one and all, have a good week ahead! :)

AusGroup

I counted 9 attempts at searching for information on AusGroup in my blog. So, here is a TA for those who are interested:

AusGroup had a sell signal on the MACD on Thursday. In the near term, price seems set to go lower. Initial support is at 69c, a many times tested candlestick support level. The cluster of rising 20dMA, 50dMA and 100dMA, all within close proximity of each other, should limit downside to 66c which coincides with the 50% Fibo line.

MFI, a momentum oscillator, shows an uptrend in buying momentum as it formed higher lows and higher highs. The OBV shows gradual and continuing accumulation. Seemingly, this counter has support and a probability of a severe downward movement in price is low.

With buying momentum intact over the longer term, breaking 74.5c, the recent high, is a matter of time. That would give an initial target price of 78.5c as provided by the 123.6% Fibo line. Accumulating at supports would give a potential gain of 12% (buy in at 69c) to 19% (buy in at 66c).

Risks and rewards: TA and FA.

In an article in Investor's Business Daily on 7 Jan 09, Alan R. Elliot wrote:

"One of the most common mistakes among investors young and old: never bothering to learn to read charts. Yet the price and volume action shown on charts is a critical tool."




The long and short of TA is to determine resistance and supports as the basic idea is that we should sell at resistance and buy at supports. This is in conjunction with trend analysis. For example, if the trend is up, everytime the price falls to support, generally, it's good to accumulate.

Then, we want to look out for chart patterns which might hint of trend continuation or a trend reversal. In TA, it is always important to seek confirmation in the following session after a signal, either bearish or bullish, manifests itself.

I know of people who have paid thousands of dollars to take up courses in TA and I can't possibly do justice to the subject here with a short post. Investopedia is a very good free online resource and I've provided a link in a box labelled "RESOURCES" here in my blog.




In the same article, Alan went on further to say that "other investors suffer from the opposite weakness: not knowing how to analyze fundamentals. That is, they don't know what to make of sales, earnings, margins and other financial data. So, if there are areas of financial reporting you haven't gotten your arms around, make 2010 the year you master them."

If a person bought some stock without any knowledge of fundamental analysis (FA), he could make some money depending on TA as he trades the psychology of the market.

If a person has no knowledge of TA, he could also make some money gunning for undervalued stocks.

If a person has no knowledge of either, he is going in with 100% risk. If a person has knowledge of both TA and FA, his risk is not 0% but it is much reduced.




What about depending on professional analysts, you may ask? My answer is to do your own research. This gives you confidence in your decision and allows you to hold with conviction.

If an analyst says "BUY", use that as a starting point and go look through past financial reports and announcements made by the company. Compare with peers in the same sector. Look at the macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions. Consider financial or any other trends which might have an impact.

Then, decide if the company is fundamentally sound and if the prospects are good. If you have a green light, use TA to determine a fair entry point. I must have mentioned this a few times before and it sounds really quite simple. Of course, it's not. It entails some hard work.




So, if you have yet to learn FA and/or TA, it's time to hit the books. You will find it all worthwhile.

Related posts:
1. Rich Dad, Poor Dad: 2 are better than 1.
2. Recommended books for FA and TA.
3. 5 rules for successful stock investing.
4. Secrets of Millionaire Investors.
5. Little Book of Value Investing.

Monitoring our stocks

Being minority shareholders, we are at the mercy of the management of the companies we own when it comes to disclosure of information. So, there is always a strong preference to be vested in companies which are transparent in their business and timely in announcing any development which might affect the value of our investments.

Every day, we should scan the announcements on the Singapore Exchange for possible news from the companies we own or, simply, are interested in. Apart from extraordinary events, I am usually very interested in the quarterly financial reports. That's the best tool we have to see how a company is progressing through the year. I also like to look at the quaterly financial reports of other companies in the same sector to determine the comparative performance of the competition.

From a technical perspective, I look at the charts every night. Charts provide a window into the mass psychology of the market participants with the two emotions of fear and greed being much talked about in investment communities. So, it is not good enough that we identify investment opportunities, it is equally important to be able to read charts in order to approximate when to buy and when to sell.

Monitoring our stocks is a daily affair.
Thoughts on methodology

Determining the impact of news on specific companies

Investors have to determine the implications which news might have on the economy, specific sectors and companies within the sectors. In so doing, investors will be able to position themselves to take advantage of any developments.

So, for example, a year or so ago, when we read about how most cities in China do not have clean drinking water and how the Chinese government intends to spend more on infrastructure, the implication was that companies in the water sector with exposure in China should benefit.

For examples in Singapore, we could consider the near completion of the integrated resorts (IRs) and a growing population. The IRs are expected to attract many more tourists to Singapore in 2010. The hospitality and retail sectors are prime to benefit from this.

With a growing population in line with the government's aim to achieve a long term target population of 6.5m residents in Singapore, we expect real estate developers, healthcare services providers and transportation companies to benefit.

These connections are not difficult to make. Investors just have to keep themselves informed of the latest news. A nightly scan of the latest business news online has become a routine for me.
Identifying trends and value: FA and TA.

Bloggy Award

Being pretty new to the business of blogging, I decided to send my blog in for a professional opinion. I chanced upon "Bloggy Award" while visiting other websites, submitted my URL and, voila, a review was completed on 6 Jan 2010. My blog was given a very objective review and some very constructive comments. I am so impressed that I've decided to blog about them and recommend that fellow bloggers who would like to know the positive and negative aspects of their blog designs to send their URLs to "Bloggy Award" as well.

In case you have doubts as to their professionalism or objectivity, I have reproduced here the review which they did for my blog:

Posted Jan 6 2010 in Personal Finance by Noemi:

A Singaporean Stockmarket Investor is the blog of AK71, whose aim is to secure a financial future for himself. In his blog, he shares his experience in trying to grow his wealth and create a steady (passive) stream of income.

Visual Aesthetics – 8
The color scheme of A Singaporean Stockmarket Investor is quite pleasant – various hues of green. First impression: the blog looks stark. If you think about it though, the simplicity matches the central idea of the blog. I suggest a more striking header, though, as well as a few more images here and there. Another suggestion is to balance out the contents of the columns, as most columns have lots of content while the third column has too much “white space.”

User Friendliness – 10
A Singaporean Stockmarket Investor is very very easy to navigate. The four-column structure makes it easy to find relevant links – both within the blog and outside of it. Load times were not a problem either.

Reading Enjoyment – 10
I have to be honest and say I didn’t really find myself enjoying the posts, but I cannot take this against the blogger; after all, I have no inclination towards stocks whatsoever. Going through the content, however, I am pretty sure that like minded people will find the blog quite enjoyable to read.

Useful Info – 10
As ignorant as I am when it comes to investing, I was able to pick up tidbits of information from A Singaporean Stockmarket Investor. I can just imagine how useful this blog will be to those who actually need information on the Singaporean stockmarket. From the blogger’s favorite companies to his strategies, you will find a lot in this blog.

Overall Experience – 9
A Singaporean Stockmarket Investor has loads of content that many will find useful. If you are into investing and the stockmarket, then you ought to bookmark this blog. If, however, you are not, then I suggest passing up on this one.

Please visit:
Bloggy Award Review

Genting SP

This is another counter which I found visitors searching for in my blog. Personally, I'm not vested. Here is a TA for those who are interested.

On 31 Dec 09, price action formed a wickless white candle, closing at $1.30 for 2009, a record high at the time. On the first trading day of 2010, price action formed a long legged doji with price closing 1c lower. MACD had a sell signal that day and the price has been declining since then.

Today, the price closed unchanged but the relieve this grants to shareholders might be just an illusion as the candlestick formed today is what is commonly called a gravestone doji. With the MACD about to form a bearish crossover, the MFI declining after forming a lower high which spells reduced buying momentum and a declining OBV which tells the chart reader that distribution has been ongoing, more downside cannot be ruled out.

The 61.8% Fibo line is where the rising 20dMA will be next week at $1.21. That provides initial support followed by support found at the 50% Fibo line which is also a many times tested candlestick resistance at $1.18. Rising 50dMA and 100dMA at close proximity to each other should limit further downside by providing a cluster of supports between $1.10 to $1.15.



Taking a quick peek at the weekly chart reveals a bearish candlestick pattern, a smaller black candle within a larger white candle. The black candle week also happened on the back of higher trading volume. The probability of a decline in price is definitely higher next week. Having said this, even if the price should decline to $1.15 next week, the longer term uptrend remains unbroken for now.

Golden Agriculture and Goldman Sachs

Crude palm oil (CPO) closed down RM4 today at RM2,626 (US$777). Nothing to shout about but Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for CPO prices today to US$850 this year and that prices may increase to US$950 next year. This gave some much needed fuel to push Golden Agriculture higher, reaching a high of 61c before closing at 60.5c. This move came on the back of respectably high volume and there is a chance that the target price of 62c might be attained in the next session. If 62c is taken out, the next eventual target is 69c which was a support level that broke in late July 08. As is my usual style, I would hedge by divesting partially at resistance and take some profit off the table.

Healthway Medical: Black spinning top

19.5c remains a stubborn resistance level which refuses to be taken out. Price action started the day at 19c, reached a high of 19.5, only to close at 18.5c, forming a black spinning top in the process. This is often a sign of a probable bearish reversal. MFI shows the buying momentum continuing to level off and the OBV shows that accumulation has halted. The only consolation is that all these negative signs are accompanied by much reduced trading volume.

With this week's spectacular run up in price, new support and resistance levels should be drawn. Using Fibo lines, we identify initial support at 16.5c (61.8%), 16c (50%) and a stronger support at 15c (38.2%). Eventual target at 19.5c is still the resistance to watch. If 19.5c is taken out, the next eventual target is 24c.

It is hard to maximise gains but we can always optimise gains and to do so, we cannot go very wrong selling at resistance and buying at supports in an uptrend.

Saizen REIT: "Good" bearish signs

Saizen REIT had another black candle day. Sell signal seen on the MACD. The MFI has formed a lower high which indicates that over the longer term, buying momentum has not really picked up. OBV shows only a slight bump up in accumulation activities.

As opined in an earlier post, with the rising 20dMA, the new support level for Saizen REIT is at 15.5c which was a many times tested resistance level. If this breaks, the next support level is at 15c which is supported by a flat 100dMA and a rising 50dMA.

A respite is actually good news for people who believe that Saizen REIT is undervalued and would like to start or continue accumulating. Passive income with high yields: Saizen REIT