Healthway Medical: Share placement

The Board of Directors of Healthway Medical Corporation Limited (the “Company”) wishes to announce that the Company is in advanced discussions with a major international financial institution (“FI”) for an equity and debt funding package (the “Funding”) of up to US$25 million. The terms and conditions of the Funding have been substantially agreed between the Company and the FI. The Funding is, inter alia, subject to the FI’s board approval. The FI’s board is expected to meet and
decide on the Funding by end February 2010.....

.... The Company will convene an Extraordinary General Meeting (“EGM”) to seek the approval of the shareholders of the Company (the “Shareholders”) on the above transactions. This EGM is expected to be held in the first quarter of 2010.

As the Funding and the Placement are still subject to the FI’s board approval and/or Shareholders’ approval at the EGM, the Company wishes to state that there is no assurance that approval of the FI’s board and/or the Shareholders will be obtained and the Funding and the placement will be undertaken.

Healthway Medical is attracting the attention of international financial institutions now which is good. They are doing a share placement which is bad as it does not allow minority shareholders to participate.

Healthway Medical: Time-table

Shares traded ex-rights : 19 January 2010 from 9.00 a.m.

Books Closure Date : 21 January 2010 at 5.00 p.m.

Despatch of Offer Information Statements, the AREs or the : 26 January 2010
PALs (as the case may be) to Entitled Shareholders

Commencement of trading of “nil-paid” Rights : 26 January 2010 from 9.00 a.m.

Last date and time for splitting Rights : 29 January 2010 at 5.00 p.m.

Last date and time for trading of “nil-paid” Rights : 3 February 2010 at 5.00 p.m.

Last date and time for acceptance of and payment for Rights : 9 February 2010 at 5.00 p.m. (9.30
Shares and excess application p.m. for Electronic Applications)

Last date and time for renunciation of and payment for Rights : 9 February 2010 at 5.00 p.m.
Shares

Expected date for issuance of Rights Shares : 22 February 2010

Expected date for the listing and commencement of trading of : 23 February 2010
the Rights Shares

Healthway Medical and Saizen REIT

Healthway Medical: A low volume pull-back today with price closing at 16c. MACD seems certain to form a bearish crossover. MFI has formed a lower high today as it formed a higher low yesterday. There is no momentum either way, it would seem. If this continues, it actually favours the bears as price is more likely to drift lower than to float higher in such instances. Support at 15c is still valid.

Saizen REIT: MFI is moving higher but the index is still not overbought. OBV is moving higher too which indicates continuing accumulation although slight. Supports provided by the rising 20dMA at 16.5c and the rising 50dMA at 15.5c. I continue to like the REIT's fundamentals and I see limited downside while upside potential remains attractive.Saizen REIT: Accumulate at supports.

Golden Agriculture: High volume sell down

Golden Agriculture broke support provided by the 50% Fibo line at 56.5c to close at 55.5c after touching an intra-day low of 55c. This is on the back of pretty high volume and it seems that the negatives from lower crude oil and crude palm oil prices yesterday were too much to bear. Price is now supported by the rising 20dMA. With this type of high volume movements, there is usually some momentum and expectation is for the price to move lower tomorrow to test supports at 54.5c (38.2% Fibo line) and 54c (gap support). If those break, the next supports are at 51.5c (gap support) and a band between 50c to 51c (many times tested resistance turned supports).

Longer term fundamentals are still good. After selling off 90% of my position by the time it hit 62c last week, today I bought a chunk of Golden Agriculture's shares at the 20dMA support. This was a buy queue I put in last night. I will continue accumulating on further weakness.

Golden Agriculture: A tale of two crudes

I was watching Bloomberg on TV while vacationing and some technical analyst said that US$80 for crude oil is in the bag and would happen before the week ends. There is also news out of Venezuela that Chavez might have to do something drastic to handle a crisis in the country and that might send crude oil up to US$100! That would make Darryl Guppy happy.

Crude oil moved to the lowest in 2010 on Tuesday, 19 Jan, while crude palm oil trades at the lowest level in 8 weeks today at RM2,444, down RM46 or 1.85%. Short term weakness providing a chance to accumulate? Maybe.

Technically, the 50% Fibo line at 56.5c seems to be providing near term support. If this counter is also doing a correction using time, it would be waiting for the 20dMA to catch up and the 20dMA would be at the 50% Fibo line sometime in the next couple of sessions. The 20dMA also coincides with an uptrend line and this reinforces the near term support.

If the 20dMA support gives way, Golden Agriculture should find support at 54.5c, the 38.2% Fibo line and at 54c which is a gap support.

Healthway Medical: XR

Healthway Medical's share price seems to be holding up pretty well even after XR. However, today's price action formed a doji after the previous two white candle days. That is always "iffy".

The MFI has formed a higher low which suggests that buying momentum exists but it is very close to crossing into the overbought region. We still do not see a buy signal on the MACD and I get a feeling that the counter is consolidating, doing a correction using time. If this is right, the price is unlikely to decline very much further and is waiting for the 20dMA to catch up before moving higher.

Adjustments have been made to the chart after the counter went XR on 19 Jan. So, I've redrawn the Fibo lines and we have a support level at 15c (61.8%) which is where the 20dMA is headed towards by end of this week. Downside should be limited to 15c if the counter is indeed doing a correction using time. New eventual target is also adjusted for XR and is now at 21.5c (down from 24c) as indicated by the 161.8% Fibo line.

I have repurchased some shares at 16.5c as a hedge. I will now wait to see if the counter is indeed doing a correction using time or if it would correct in price to hit 15c.

Rationale for partial divestment

Amongst the three counters I am actively monitoring, I remain heavily vested in only one counter: Saizen REIT. I have divested 90% of my position in Golden Agriculture and 80% of my position in Healthway Medical in the recent run up in prices.

From 4 Jan, the first trading day of 2010, Golden Agriculture raced from 51c to a high of 65.5c for a gain of 14.5c or 28%. Healthway Medical blasted through the roof as it started the year at 14c and hit 19.5c for a gain of 5.5c or 39%! In both instances, partial divestments took place at every resistance level as the prices rose.

Now, have I changed my mind about these two counters? No, of course not. The fundamentals and prospects are still good over the longer term. I just feel that the market became a little too enthusiastic and sent prices up too high and too quickly. I liken it to a sprinter who is able to run very quickly over short distances but the speed is unsustainable over longer distances.

Knowing which companies' shares to buy and when to buy them is important but knowing when to sell the shares is equally important. For sure, if we simply hold on to the shares till they reach the zenith before selling is one way. However, to grow our wealth more quickly, selling at resistance levels and repurchasing at supports for the next leg up could be more rewarding. It is with that mentality that I partially divested my shares of Golden Agriculture and Healthway Medical.

What about Saizen REIT? It started the year at 15c and reached a high of 18c for a gain of 3c or 20%. Not too mean either. I identified Saizen REIT as a yield counter for regular passive income. Conservatively, I expect a yield in excess of 10% per annum from middle of 2010. With that in mind, I am not too keen on divesting my investment in Saizen REIT unless the price is extremely compelling. Three portfolios and three counters: future gains and passive income.

The stock market climbs a wall of worries and goes down a river of hope or so the saying goes. Basically, it means that prices do not go up or down in straight lines. If the prices go up without a break, it means that the wall of worries is non-existent. I would worry in such an instance! It usually means that the market is euphoric and we have buyers rushing in en masse.

When we have almost full participation in the market, there is very little fuel left to push it higher. That is when the market reverts to the mean. Anytime, when too many people shift to one side of the boat, a shift back to the other side is necessary to maintain equilibrium.

In an article I read this morning by ETF Guide, it says,"Investors Intelligence tracks the recommendation of different market advisors. As of the most recent poll, 53.4% of all advisors are bullish. 30.7% of advisors are longer term bullish...... " It went on to say that even the market high of October 2007 did not get such a positive response. This is a wake up call and contrarians are taking note. Marc Faber is probably one of the first to sound the warning and I talked about this in a post yesterday: STI: Up or down?

Right, this is where I sign off. I will be going away for a short holiday from tomorrow and will not be adding new posts for a few days. Thanks for the overwhelming support so far and I hope my posts have been useful and in some cases, maybe, inspiring. I wish everyone the best of luck and, remember, always hedge and come back often.

Golden Agriculture: As per expectations

Golden Agriculture is behaving according to expectations. Closing at 57c on lower volume suggests that if the price retreats to the gap support at 54c, we should expect some strong support. Although if 54c gives way, the steeper orange color trendline would be violated and the gentler green color trendline would come into play. The latter, incidentally, coincides with the 38.2% Fibo line at 50.5c and should be a very strong support. I am going to accumulate on the way down at supports as the longer term fundamentals of crude palm oil remain intact.

Healthway Medical: Decline continues

On 13 Jan, I said, "Even though the continuing sideways movement in price is taking place on the back of reducing volume, without any significant buying up activity, price is likely to lower in time." Healthway Medical: A grave situation?

Today, Healthway Medical closed at 17.5c on relatively low volume. For people who are waiting to accumulate Healthway Medical shares and would like to hedge, one bid above the support provided by the 61.8% Fibo line seems like a fair proposition. I like accumulating shares at support levels on the way down. 61.8% Fibo support at 16.5c looks attainable as the declining OBV tells me that distribution is underway.

Saizen REIT: Accumulate at supports

Saizen REIT retreated from 18c to close at the resistance turned support level of 17c today. An overnight buy queue at 17c which I put in as a hedge was done. I like accumulating shares when they are consolidating or coming off their highs to hit supports. With a high of 18c achieved in the last session, I have drawn the new support levels using Fibo lines. If the support at 17c gives way, next supports are to be found at 16c (61.8%) and 15.5c (50%). Of course, I will be accumulating at those levels as well.

Upside targets remain at 19c and 21c. Eventual target is at 24c.

STI: Up or down?

Looking into crystal balls can be hazardous to health because they give you signs of what might be and not what will be. Usually cryptic and sometimes perverse, it's best to avoid these magical objects. However, being human, I have the failings of our kind, the type of failings which got us kicked out of Paradise in the first instance.

In a post dated 12 Jan, I wondered if a correction was at hand and on 13 Jan, it looked as if a correction was underway. For a recap, please seeConfirming the signs. However, on 14 Jan, things did a u-turn and that got people wondering if there would be more upside to come.

To me, the recent ups and downs of the STI is a sign that a correction is probably going to happen. A 3000 points initial target which so many analysts have talked about is so near and yet so far. The market is grudging and unwilling to give bulls the satisfaction (yet). Analysts have also talked about a 3300 points eventual target for the STI by end 2010. That's a mere 10% from where we are now.

Marc Faber, in an interview with Yahoo! Finance on 13 Jan said that he is no longer bullish on stocks because everyone is now bullish on stocks. Marc is a shrewd contrarian who has been proven right time and time again. He made the observation that many stocks' prices are flattening out and that once the momentum fizzles out, momentum players who are in the market for the upward momentum and not to hold long term positions, will pull out and they will pull out fast! We will then have a correction in earnest. It would be prudent for us to take Marc's views seriously.

What are we to do? I suggest keeping an eye on the newsflow and on the STI at the same time for signs.

During the recent multi-months recovery from the market bottom, we saw how streams of bad news were brushed aside as the market powered upwards. That was a powerful sign that a cyclical bull was charging back. It was a sign which many ignored much to their regret later on. At best, disbelievers missed out on a money making opportunity of a lifetime. At worst, shortists were caught with their pants down and lost their pants in the process (and some even got spanked on their backsides).

If we get a constant stream of positive newsflow and the STI hardly budges but a slight whiff of negative news sends it down, the signs are clear: a correction is not far away.

A saying from Warren Buffet now rings clear in my mind: Be fearful when others are greedy! That is a generalisation like many of his sayings. It serves to inform and not to instruct. That's where many would be Buffets got it wrong. They think his sayings are instructions.

Personally, I believe in being a pragmatist and not being overly bullish or bearish. I believe in hedging. I have taken some profit off the table, leaving some long positions in the market in case it decides to go higher. After all, crystal balls reveal only part of the picture, leaving us to form our own conclusions and, usually, we see what we want to see.

Video added on 11 Feb 2010: