AusGroup impresses.

On Monday, 22 Feb, I said that "AusGroup closed at 57c today on low volume. This is the second black candle day in a row experienced by AusGroup on low volume while the two preceding white candle days happened with relatively higher volume. This is a positive. The MFI has formed a higher low while the MACD continues to pull higher away from the signal line after forming a bullish crossover three sessions ago. Any continuing attempt to move higher will have to overcome resistance provided by a declining 20dMA which is at 59c today."

AusGroup broke that resistance provided by the declining 20dMA which is at 58c today on the back of heavy volume.  MFI has crossed above 50% sharply but is far from overbought.  Resistance is at 63c in the event of a continuation in the upmove.  This resistance is likely to be strong as it is was a candlestick support level in addition to being where the 200dMA is currently flattening out at.  Although the MACD has formed a bullish crossover, it is still below zero and this upmove is probably a great chance for stale bulls to reduce exposure.  Given the nice white candle formed today, there is a good probability that price might continue to move higher tomorrow.  Whether it will close higher or not is harder to say.

Healthway Medical: An updated valuation.

I have blogged extensively about Healthway Medical since I started this blog in December last year.  I like the business and I like their strategy.  The management is growing a defensive business.  Sounds good, doesn't it?  Their announcement to expand in China is a shot in the arm for the company.  That Singapore's domestic market is small and could only provide so many growth opportunities is quite obvious.  As Healthway Medical already has a business platform in Shanghai, continuing expansion in China is only natural and, if successfully executed, in time, it should be a more important contributor to Healthway Medical's overall performance.
Healthway Medical: Growing a defensive business.
Healthway Medical's growing in china.
Healthway Medical: A seven months journey.

In order to expand in China, Healthway Medical issued rights (1 for 5) at 7.5c to existing shareholders.  This, I like. It allowed all shareholders to participate in the enlarged capital base of the company.  Coverage by DMG with a target price of 28c sent the share price soaring soon after.  Although I believed that Healthway Medical's valuation was inexpensive at 13c then when compared to peers such as Raffles Medical Group (RMG) and Parkway (and if we compared it to Q&M Dental, it was dirt cheap), seeing the price moving rapidly from 13c to hit 19.5c in a very short period was just unbelievable. 

Fundamentally, at the CR price of 19.5c, it had similar valuations as RMG at that point in time.  Technically, 19.5c was an eventual target provided by the chart pattern then.  I divested as its price hit various levels of resistance on the way up and was 80% divested by the time it retreated a cent from 19.5c.
Healthway Medical - Rising too quickly?
Healthway Medical: A beautiful symmetry.
Rationale for partial divestment.

The CR target price of 19.5c translates to a XR target price of 17.5c.  A CR target price beyond 19.5c was 24c and the XR target price beyond 17.5c is 21.5c.  DMG later lowered their target price from 28c to 21c to take into consideration the dilution resulting from the rights issue as well as a share placement that would be taking place.  The proposed share placement is good and bad and I have blogged about it before.
Healthway Medical: XR.
Healthway Medical: Share placement.

Today, I received a circular from Healthway Medical for an EGM on 9 March 2010.  The following resolutions are being put up for a vote by shareholders:

1.  The Proposed China Expansion Plans.
2.  The Proposed IFC Placement.
3.  The Proposed Placement.

Healthway Medical's management is being very forthright with all the risks which it might face in its proposed plans to expand in China.  In total, there are 11 risks listed.  Not great bedtime reading, for sure.  This is why I have mentioned before that the plan is good and all we have to worry about is its execution.  We can only hope that the management is up to the tasks at hand and that they have a measure of good luck on their side as well since, realistically, we cannot expect the entire process to be without hiccups.  However, the management's strong track record in Singapore is re-assuring and we hope for the best.

That a member of the World Bank Group, International Finance Corporation (IFC), is going to take up 108,000,000 placement shares at 13c per share is a positive.  IFC is going to be a long term partner and its track record of more than 50 years in creating opportunities and improving lives in emerging markets will raise the corporate profile of Healthway Medical.   IFC will also extend a term loan of US$15m for a period of 10 years as a substantial shareholder of Healthway Medical.

A share placement at 13c per share is also being offered to two controlling shareholders and three substantial shareholders of Healthway Medical.  This is to ensure that their aggregate interest in the company remains substantially unchanged at 44.6% and it also demonstrates the five shareholders' confidence in the growth prospects and plans of the company.

Healthway Medical's star is shining bright but the risks which are inherent in their ambitious plans to expand aggressively in China cannot be ignored.  The journey will be a long one and fraught with obstacles.  Shareholders will have to believe in the management and their vision.  Having said this, shareholders will also have to keep an eye on the progress that is being made and adjust their expectations accordingly. 

Investing in a company with confidence and holding with conviction is not the same as blind faith.  Periodic reviews are still necessary.  This brings me to the most important part of this post:

Number of shares:
As at 30 Sep 2009:                                              1,384,752,983
Upon completion of Rights Issue:                      1,647,665,980
Upon completion of Proposed IFC Placement: 1,755,665,980
Upon completion of the Proposed Placement:   1,841,539,384

The much enlarged share capital of Healthway Medical is something shareholders and would be investors should bear in mind.  Buying Healthway Medical's shares today at 13c is different from buying it at 13c in December last year which was the last time I bought some before it issued rights.  Buying it at 13c now is closer to buying at 14.5c in December.  So?  It means that Healthway Medical's shares are not as cheap as before.

EPS would be about 20% lower and PE is less attractive.  Fundamentally, at 16c, its PE would be 20x once all the proposed share placements are approved and effected.  This valuation is similar to RMG and I would, therefore, consider 16c per share as a fair value for Healthway Medical from a fundamental perspective.  Buying at any higher price would be a bet on the future earnings of Healthway Medical which cannot be determined with any great amount of certainty at this point in time.

I still have 20% of my original investment in Healthway Medical which were purchased at prices ranging from 10c to 13c.  I still have shares which were given to me as scrip dividends which are about 11c per share in cost.  I have also left a small position of those I bought at 16.5c XR as a hedge which is now losing money (which is what hedging does sometimes), having divested most of it at 16c and incurring a small loss when support became resistance.  Finally, I have some entitled rights and excess rights which I got at 7.5c recently.

Fundamentally, I do not see a compelling reason rooted in the present to increase my investment in Healthway Medical.  Technically, the counter might provide trading opportunities and I have identified 17.5c and 21.5 as the resistance levels to watch.  13c should be a strong support level.  Good luck to all fellow shareholders.

Outlook for REITs in 2010.

I came across some video clips on YouTube where professionals talked about the outlook for REITs in 2010.  Some make good sense and I would like to share a couple of clips here with you:


 
I like their advice on how we should focus on the balance sheets of REITs as well as their acknowledgement that a low gearing level is safer in case real estate values are revised downwards again.  Can't usually go wrong being conservative when it comes to gearing.  For those of us who are in the know, treat this as a reminder.



Re-capitalisation exercises hit REITs big time in Singapore in 2009.  Off the top of my head, I remember forking out more money for MI-REIT and FCOTs' rights.  Re-capitalisation exercises have strengthened REITs and with the improving credit market, with funds more readily available at lower cost, I rather think that REITs will continue to do well in 2010 and 2011. 

What do I look out for in a REIT?  Low gearing, high yield and preferably trading at a discount to NAV.

Saizen REIT: Obvious uptrend.

Saizen REIT is in an obvious uptrend channel.  The closing in of the 100dMA and 200dMA indicates the formation of a stronger support level at 15c thereabouts.  It also suggests a lack of volatility in the longer term.  Thin trading volume as price goes sideways usually means more downward bias. 

However, given the trend of the longer term MAs, the downside is very limited from current levels.  Any upward push in price will meet with initial resistance at 17c and if this is overcome, the recent high of 18c might be tested.  I would accumulate on dips.

Please remember that I am investing in Saizen REIT due to its very cheap valuation and potentially high yield.  This is not a trade for me and I could hold this for a very long time.

AusGroup, Healthway Medical and Golden Agriculture.

AusGroup closed at 57c today on low volume.  This is the second black candle day in a row experienced by AusGroup on low volume while the two preceding white candle days happened with relatively higher volume.  This is a positive.  The MFI has formed a higher low while the MACD continues to pull higher away from the signal line after forming a bullish crossover three sessions ago.  Any continuing attempt to move higher will have to overcome resistance provided by a declining 20dMA which is at 59c today.

Golden Agriculture closed at 55c on the back of lower volume, forming a doji in the process.  It was unable to break a down trending resistance line.  MACD is above zero and MFI formed a higher low, indicating positive momentum and a stronger buying momentum.  However, these are lagging indicators and in a situation where the trend is weak or short lived, they must be treated with care.  The target remains at 59c in the event that immediate resistance is taken out.  The rising 100dMA is still rising and if the price should retreat closer to this level once more, I will buy more.

Healthway Medical's trading volume expanded slightly as it formed a gravestone doji, closing half a cent higher at 15.5c.  MACD seems poised to cross the signal line and zero at the same time, more or less.  This is a very bullish sign.  MFI has moved decisively out of the oversold territory and has more room to move up.  If volume expands meaningfully with a continuing push upwards in price, we could probably see price pushing 17.5c and even retest the previous high of 18.5c. 

Portfolio strategy: Undervalued high yield counters.

As the stock market seems set on moving sideways with thinning volume, a downward bias is definitely stronger.  Over time, even the most optimistic bulls will turn cautious and every rally attempt will see stale bulls reducing their exposure.  

This is likely to continue until only the really longer term holders remain or when institutional buying interest returns in a meaningful way (read upward price movement with higher trading volume) or both.

As the high beta stocks turn quiet, the more boring high yielding counters might start to look more interesting.  After all, achieving 10% yield per annum is not too shabby.  

I am now looking to increase my investments in AIMS AMP Capital REIT (AA REIT) and Lippo Mapletree Indonesian Retail Trust (LMIR).  It is no secret that I like these REITs.  Their fundamentals are sound and they have attractive yields.

Using TA to look for entry points, it is obvious that the upward momentum in LMIR is over for now.  The 20dMA seems poised to form a dead cross with the 100dMA soon.  MFI has formed a higher low but with volume thinning, it is unlikely that LMIR is about to form a new high in price.  Chances are higher that the price will continue declining and the rising 200dMA (at 44c today) should provide a stronger support.  I would accumulate if price falls to 46c and lower.

For AA REIT, MFI has been going in and out of oversold territory since late January.  Like LMIR, it lacks upward momentum.  However, its low was formed at 19.5c in early December. 

Psychologically, this is very fresh in the minds of investors.  20.5c is a many times tested support and resistance level and I expect this to be a strong support in the absence of selling pressure.  If this support breaks, 20c is likely to be a much stronger support and would be a great price to accumulate more units of AA REIT at.

Saizen REIT tried to rally today as it reached a high of 17c, only to fall back to close at 16c, forming a gravestone doji in the process.  The fact that this attempt to move higher took place on the back of higher volume and failed is not positive.  Nonetheless, with the longer term moving averages still moving up and being in close proximity to each other, together with the absence of selling pressure, the downside is likely to be limited.  As I have a sizeable investment in Saizen REIT already, I would only accumulate further on dips.

Related posts:
Aims Amp Capital Industrial Reit.
Lippo Mapletree Indonesia Retail Trust.
Saizen REIT: Long-term buy.

Japan's debt issue and Saizen REIT.

On 15 Feb, a reader, Robin Lim commented, "I read yr comments about saizen and they are good. But i hv always been concerned about japan's debt/gdp. An article in Forbes Feb issue p62 "Blowup" explained it well. Be careful about Japanese property, because it can be a Greece."

When I returned to Singapore on 17 Feb, I responded, "Japan does have a debt problem but we have to remember that Japan is not only a borrower, it is also a lender. Japan is the second largest lender to the USA. China is of course the largest.


"I have not read the article in Forbes but did they look at debt as a percentage of GDP only? Another way of looking at this is debt per capita. In this respect, Greece is number one in the world at US$ 27,746. USA is 11th at US$ 11,094. Japan does not even come close."

Apparently, Japan is now the largest holder of US Treasury debt as China cut back its exposure in December 2009.  This was revealed last Tuesday by the US Treasury Dept.



This is one factor which sets Japan apart from Greece.  Japan is also a lender, not just a borrower.  When we look at debt, it is important not to just look at gross debt (ie. the total amount borrowed), we should look at net debt which takes into consideration the borrower's status as a lender.  Japan is one of the largest creditor nations in the world.

Also, as Japan is home to many renowned MNCs, a more accurate picture of Japanese debt situation should compare its net debt to GNP, instead of GDP.  Japanese MNCs repatriate earnings from their global operations back to Japan and GNP is a much bigger figure than GDP.

Interestingly, much of Japan's debt is in local hands.  Less than 10% of Japanese debt is funded by foreign bodies.  This is largely due to the fact that the Japanese people have been such big savers.  In contrast, American national debt is, to a large extent, in foreign hands.

Having said all these, I am not glossing over Japan's debt issue which still has to be dealt with.  Borrowings have to be repaid.  An ageing population puts into question the sustainability of Japan's national debt as well. 

There are some difficult decisions which the government must make and as Japan is still the largest economy in Asia, we should all be very concerned whether any progress is made over time.

I am not a politician or some big shot in a global organisation like the Asian Development Bank or the World Bank.  There is nothing I could do about this, obviously.  The question which might be on your mind now is, "How will this affect Saizen REIT?"

I do not see the debt situation in Japan becoming unmanageable in the next few years.  As the Japanese population ages over the next decade, they will start cashing out of government bonds.  The Japanese government might have to sell US Treasury debt gradually then unless it is able to trim expenditure in a meaningful way or get its economy to grow more robustly in time.  As you can imagine, all these will most likely not happen in, say, one or two years.  It's going to take far longer. 

Saizen REIT is still a most compelling buy in the near term and is still most attractive as a high yielding passive income generator over the next few years.

Saizen REIT: Long-term BUY

A nice and cool Sunday morning.  Woke up early, did the laundry, had a drink and surfed the net for news as usual.  When I visited Next Insight, I got a nice surprise.  Saizen REIT, which has not attracted any analyst coverage in a long time, received coverage from NRA Capital. 

Regular visitors to my blog would know that I am still actively accumulating units in Saizen REIT.  I have written extensively about the REIT and I have also received readers' comments in affirmation as well as cautionary advice.

Even though I believe that my FA of the REIT is thorough and my continuing accumulation of units in the REIT is sensible, it is, dare I say, bracing to hear from more professional quarters.

I remember saying that even if the YK Shintoku portfolio suffers foreclosure, Saizen REIT is still a buy as it would still be severely undervalued.  That is why when a friend told me that his father does not like the management's seemingly cavalier attitude towards this matter, I told him that it is not a big issue and that the management has good reasons to be less worried about it.

"Assuming a conservative stance and based on the assumption that the JPY7.25b CMBS loan encumbered with JPY9.10b worth of assets will be foreclosed eventually, using DDM, we value Saizen at 24.5 Scts (previously 24.3 Scts) and arrive at a target price of 17.0 S cts as previously, maintaining our discount to valuation of 30%." 

"News flow of new credit access is expected to lift valuations to 32.3Scts and a target price of 22.5Scts (based on the same 30% discount rate), providing catalyst for further upward re-rating of Saizen."

Written by Angeline Phua (NRA Capital) .
SAIZEN REIT: Fair value 17 c, long-term buy , please read it here.

Just like my earlier investments in Healthway Medical and some other companies before I started this blog, I believe that accumulating shares in good companies before everyone else is interested in them is one of the best ways to greater capital gains. Well, in the case of Saizen REIT, we are accumulating units.  Good luck to fellow unitholders and have a good Sunday.


Related posts:
Buy Japanese real-estate.
Passive income with high yields: Saizen REIT.
Saizen REIT's quarterly report.

Money management: Needs and wants.

I first learned about needs and wants more than twenty years ago in an Economics class when I was a Junior College student.  During the class, a female classmate told an irritating guy that he needed medication and asked if he wanted some.  That made the distinction between needs and wants very clear to us all and we had a good laugh.

There will always be things out there to buy in the modern world.  The question to ask is always whether we need these or we want these.  The question seems innocent enough at first glance.  However, one person's needs might be another person's wants. Do I hear some readers going, "Huh?"

Human beings have various needs for survival.  In my mind, at the most basic, we need air, water, food, shelter and clothing.  Some might say that the last item is debatable and it might be a want that has become a need due to the evolution of human society which invented the notion of modesty.  Here we start to see a blurring in the line separating needs and wants.  However, we should have an idea of what are needs and what are wants for us to do a good job of managing our money.

Recently, I was asked how much of my income do I save.  Off the top of my head, I said I probably save about 80% of my annual income and that received some incredulous expletives.  Is it possible?  Yes, it is.  How could we achieve this?  It is through a combination of increasing our income and reducing our expenses.  This post is about the latter.

In business, we very often hear how efforts are being put into increasing revenue.  Rarely do we hear how efforts are being put into decreasing costs.  Somehow, increasing revenue is more glamorous than decreasing costs.  It is when times are bad that businesses start decreasing costs in the hope of preserving their bottomline.  

I believe that cost control must always be an important consideration in business. Costs should always be kept low, in good times and bad.  This is especially true when we are looking at fixed costs or costs which cannot be adjusted downwards in the short run, at least not without incurring some kind of penalty or monetary loss.

Similarly, in our personal finances, if we keep our living expenses low, we do not have to worry during bad times if our income level takes a dip or, indeed, disappears over a period of time.  We would have ample reserves to see us through.  In the world of business, these are called retained earnings.

Making money is an important skill in modern society but managing money is an equally important skill and, very often, neglected.  We can make a lot of money but we can easily squander it all through mismanagement or, indeed, no management.

Do you believe me if I tell you I know of someone who made $10k a month but spent it all, habitually? Seemingly flying high, he had a really rough landing with a few broken bones thrown in when the wind was taken away from under his wings.

So, what we have to do is to have quite clearly in our minds what are needs to us and what are wants.  We should cut back on our expenditure on wants.  Sounds simple enough, doesn't it?  Maybe not.

As mentioned earlier in this post, the definitions of needs and wants can be quite subjective.  We need transportation but do we need to have a car?  For a businessman, he probably needs a car.  Or, indeed, do we need to take a bus if the destination is only a few stops away?  For an old granny, it's probably a need.  Defining our needs and wants, this is the tough bit and I leave it to you.

Assuming we manage to sort out our needs and wants, what's next?  Once we have amassed some "retained earnings", look at how to put them to good use.  It's time to increase our income.  A company that is sitting on a lot of cash and not doing anything with it is doing its shareholders a grave injustice.  Similarly, just keeping all our wealth as cash in a bank account is doing ourselves a great disservice.  That's another subject and if you are interested enough, you might want to read a couple of my earlier posts below.  Have a good weekend and I will talk to you again soon.

Related posts:
Grow your wealth and beat inflation.
Bungee jumping, anyone?
To queue for $1 parking fee redemption.

STI shows relative strength

The STI exhibited relative strength today, declining 0.44%, even as the HSE crashed 2.59%.  Closing at 2,757.14 keeps the STI within its uptrend channel.

Genting SP held its ground amid a high volume sell off which pushed its price to touch an intra day low of 90c.  Closing at 94c, it's only 1c lower than yesterday's close.  The decline's rapid pace has been thwarted for now.  Almost a black hammer, there is a chance of a rebound next week for this counter.  Resistance is at $1.01, provided by the 38.2% Fibo line.  I see a stronger resistance at $1.04, a candlestick support turned resistance.  It is also the 50% Fibo line.  Any such rebound is an opportunity to reduce exposure.

AusGroup has a black candle day.  The good news is that it happened with much reduced volume.  MACD has formed a bullish crossover but being still below zero, positive momentum has not returned.  MFI has turned down which shows a slowing of buying momentum.

On the weekly chart, we have an inverted white hammer which suggests a probability of price closing higher next week.  The bugbear?  Volume is very low and this does not make any upmove in price sustainable.  A continuing rebound would allow stale bulls to reduce exposure and is likely to meet with resistance for this reason.  The weekly chart confirms that the target of 64c I have identified for AusGroup in the event of a continuing rebound is plausible.  Any long position in AusGroup taken this week is a punt at best.

With the continuing decline today, Golden Agriculture's price action has formed a lower high at 57c.  However, the pullback is on relatively lower volume which leads to a reasonable suggestion that any decline will not be severe.  Having said this, the lack of buying momentum could see the counter drifting lower.  Critical support remains at 50c thereabouts.  It will most likely hold as the rising 100dMA reaches 49c today.  I continue to like the company's fundamentals and will accumulate at supports.

Genting SP: How low could it go?

I was going through my blog's statistics and found a jump in readership for a post on Genting SP I did in early January.  Of course, that post is outdated by now since it was a TA on the counter.  I looked at Genting SP and discovered the reason for the renewed interest.  The counter is crashing through all supports, including the longer term 200dMA at 97.5c! Intrigued, I decided to take a look at how low this counter might go.

From the plunging OBV, it is quite obvious that distribution is taking place big time.  The counter closed at 95c today, down 7c, on much higher volume.  The MACD showed a sell signal yesterday and this signal was confirmed today.  The MFI is still hovering at the 40% level and is far from being oversold.  All these suggest that there is more downside for this counter and shortists are having a field day here.

38.2% Fibo line at 91c might provide some near term support.  If this breaks, the 23.6% Fibo line is at 81c and the rising 100wMA is at 73.5c.  I rather doubt that price action would descend to the 100wMA in a hurry but one never knows.

I have mentioned before that I do not like the fundamentals of Genting SP and consequently, I was never vested.  However, technically, it is now looking interesting.  I would keep an eye on the MFI and if it enters the oversold territory, it might provide an opportunity to go long.

STI, AusGroup, Golden Agriculture and Healthway Medical

STI closed at 2,769.19, down 24.87 points.  It is still within the uptrend channel and above its 100dMA.  Volume is somewhat reduced and the downwards adjustment in the index is nothing alarming at this stage.

AusGroup looks interesting as volume continues to expand for a second day with price moving up to close at 58c today.  MFI is rising strongly and is almost at 50%.  MACD turned up and a bullish crossover with the signal line seems inevitable.  Currently, the declining 20dMA is providing resistance at 59.5c.  If the price action overcomes this, it could move to 64c which is the resistance provided by the 50% Fibo line.  This is also the price level which the descending 50dMA seems on track to meet in the next few sessions.

Golden Agriculture experienced a down day closing at 55c on the back of reduced volume.  MACD is poised to cross above zero which would herald the return of positive momentum.  Gap support at 54c.  My target price for this counter remains unchanged at 59c if the upmove should continue in the near term.

Healthway Medical's price action formed a gravestone doji today.  This is a bearish candlestick. With the MFI and MACD turned up, the expectation is for some continuing push upwards but these momentum oscillators are lagging indicators.  So, we have to take this with a pinch of salt.  If price action does not close above the resistance provided by the descending 20dMA at 15.5c, we want to at least see the rising 50dMA confirmed as a support at 14.5c.  All we can do is to wait and see.

A rebound or something more lasting?

A reader, CT, posed some questions in response to my post yesterday:

"i was wondering why u would reduce ur exposure at this point in Goldenagri and STI. do u think that there will be another correction soon? or are u just afraid of high volatility? could u expand ur thoughts on that? i ask because it seems to me that after this correction, the entire mkt seems poised for a steady uptick."

The STI broke the uptrend channel's support on 5 Feb before re-joining the channel on 9 Feb.  Of note is that the support broke on very high volume while rejoining the channel took place on relatively lower volume.  This is more bearish than bullish.  Incidentally, the support broke on the same day that the declining 20dMA formed a dead cross with the 50dMA.  The declining 20dMA seems poised to form another dead cross, this time with the 100dMA.  The 50dMA has stopped rising and is drifting lower.  The 200dMA is still rising strongly and should provide a stronger support at about 2600 points.  All these do not mean that the STI is going to crash to the 200dMA but it does indicate more weakness.

In the near term, the MFI is rising and this indicates positive buying momentum.  The MACD has risen above the signal line which is a positive as well.  There is probably some room to move up as the MFI is far from being overbought.  However, keep an eye on volume as without any meaningful expansion in trading volume, the upmove in the STI is likely to be no more than a technical rebound.

Yesterday, while chatting with LP in his blog, Bully the Bear, he mentioned that he is vested in SGX.  I took a quick look at the chart as I was curious and saw SGX clearly in a downtrending channel.  In such a situation, the probability of a counter forming lower highs and lower lows is higher.  It would be prudent to reduce exposure if the price moves to retest the channel resistance.  I mention this as a quick reminder becaue if the charts of counters you are vested in show a similar trending, you might want take this into consideration.

As for Golden Agriculture, I am just doing what I have always done.  As price moves up, I divest gradually at every resistance level.  I hedge against the risk of any sudden reversal in such an instance but I will also never maximise my returns.  Given that the market usually lapses into a stupor after the Chinese New Year period, I am not optimistic that the recent high of 65.5c could be bested.  If you look at the chart, 62c was a resistance level in August 2008 which sealed the fate of this counter as the price plunged after that.  That it was punctured for a couple of days last month in January was a positive but it happened too soon.  59c is a many times tested resistance in recent memory and is psychologically more important.  Hence, I have chosen it as a more realistic target price this time round.  The important thing is to make money.  Greed is not a bad thing but beyond a point, it is.

TA cannot predict what will happen for sure in future.  It simply gives us clues and we can choose to be conservative and wait for confirmation before acting or hedge to reduce risk (which could also reduce rewards).  I have a preference for hedging as I am not a pure TA practitioner.