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Healthway Medical: A retest of recent high.

Saturday, March 13, 2010

Healthway Medical moved from 17.5c to retest the recent high of 18.5c in the last session but failed to move higher, establishing 18.5c as a strong resistance in the minds of market participants.  This is all the more significant when we remember that the price action was accompanied by volume more than four times that of the previous session.  This might be a bit more than disappointing for shareholders looking forward to the formation of a new high.  The nagging question on their minds: Is it a sign that distribution has started?

Technically, any price movement up or down without significant volume is seen as unsustainable.  What about significant volume without any significant price movement?  Usually, it means we have a stalemate between the bulls and the bears.  Neither camp is willing to give the other any satisfaction.  That the price managed to inch up 0.5c at the close was a small victory for the bulls.  That 18.5c remains a significant resistance was a small victory for the bears.




Looking at the MFI, the decline has halted and formed a higher low.  The buying momentum stopped weakening although it has not strengthened enough to form a new high.  Now, look at the OBV.  No sign of distribution.  Instead, accumulation has spiked.  This is bullish.  Finally, the sell signal on the MACD has been negated.  All signs point to the bulls having the upper hand, for now.  However, we have to remember that these are lagging indicators.  TA can never tell us what will happen for sure.

So, in the event that price does not move up but declines instead, we should have a plan.  The uptrend is intact.  So, my usual style is to buy at supports.  Initial support is where we find the merged 20dMA and 50dMA.  Connecting the two previous lows yields a trendline support that coincides with these merged MAs at 16c.  This should be the initial support and also a strong one, albeit in the short term.

Related post:
Healthway Medical: A beautiful symmetry again.

Saizen REIT: A symmetrical triangle?

On 23 Feb, I had a post titled: "Saizen REIT: Obvious uptrend."  In that post, I said, "... given the trend of the longer term MAs, the downside is very limited from current levels. Any upward push in price will meet with initial resistance at 17c and if this is overcome, the recent high of 18c might be tested..."

Well, the initial resistance of 17c was not overcome.  In the last session, Saizen REIT closed at 16.5c after touching a low of 16c, forming a dragonfly doji. OBV is flat which suggests a lack of significant distribution or accumulation.  The MFI has dipped into oversold territory.  MACD's sell signal has not been reversed.  Lethargy is a signature of Saizen REIT's price action.




I have drawn a trendline resistance connecting recent highs and a trendline support connecting recent lows.  What looks like a symmetrical triangle took shape with its apex sometime in April.  Symmetrical triangles are not the most reliable patterns in charting but, if valid, a price action in the prevailing trend is not far off.  In this case, the trend is UP.  The ascending MAs make this quite obvious.

My decision to accumulate Saizen REIT from 13c to the current price is informed by a thorough FA with the understanding that it is terribly undervalued. Even if the REIT's portfolio of YK Shintoku were to be foreclosed and even after all the warrants are converted into regular units, Saizen REIT would still have a NAV of 29c per unit. At 16.5c, it is still a good 43% discount to NAV. I have blogged about this quite extensively and shan't dwell on the fundamentals too much in this post but I will say this again, "Think contrarian!"

A video interview with Marc Faber (Posted Mar 12, 2010 07:30am EST by Peter Gorenstein):



"If you are going to put money to work in stocks both market watchers think Japan is the place to be. After a 20 year bear market and despite high-debt-to-GDP levels, the pair think the market has become too cheap to ignore. Always a contrarian, Faber believes the lack of interest in Japanese stocks makes it one of the most compelling buys in the world. "

Related posts:
Saizen REIT: Obvious uptrend.
Passive income with high-yields: Saizen REIT.
Japan's debt issue and Saizen REIT.

Golden Agriculture: Waiting for support.

Friday, March 12, 2010

Having sold almost all of my investment in Golden Agriculture two days ago, I am now waiting for the price to correct to supports before buying again.




We have a sell signal on the MACD today after the price declined for two days, closing at 56.5c, after touching a low of 55.5 today.  The ascending 20d and 50d MAs have merged and should provide initial support at 55c.  I have also drawn a line connecting the previous two lows which would give an indication of where the trendline support is in the next session, 54c.  If this uptrend is violated, the ascending 100dMA would be called upon as support, 51c.

Even though we have a sell signal on the MACD and even though the MFI shows lower highs and lower lows, suggesting a weakened buying momentum, the price decline has been accompanied by lower volumes.  If we look at the OBV, we do not see any obvious distribution activity either, which is a contrast with what we observed for the month of January after the price peaked at 65.5c.  For anyone thinking of accumulating at supports, the low volume sell down plus benign signs in the OBV provide positive confirmation.

Healthway Medical: A beautiful symmetry again.

Thursday, March 11, 2010

On 11 January, I had a post titled "Healthway Medical: A beautiful symmetry."  In that post, I said: "I am a believer in chart patterns. See how the cup formation troughed at 9.5c and topped out at 14.5c? The target price in case of a breakout of the top of the formation is just a projection of the trough to the top and beyond which gives us 19.5c. This target price was reached in just one week from the midpoint of the cup pattern at 12c."

Now, I observe a similar symmetry in Healthway Medical's chart once more.  Recent bottom was formed on 11 Feb at 13.5c before price moved up, formed mini ascending triangles before breaking out on 3 Mar.  The neckline?  16c.  Target price of the mini ascending triangles would be a projection of the bottom at 13.5c to the neckline at 16c and beyond which gives us 18.5c which was hit on 9 Mar.  OK, interesting geometry lesson.  Now what?





This suggests that 16c is an important support and resistance.  The merged 20d and 50d MAs which are rising in tandem would be at 16c soon and re-inforce the importance of this price level in the near term.

Price has not been able to form a new high since 9 Mar. Dwindling volume suggests a lack of buying interest.  This is confirmed by the lower high formed on the MFI signifying a reduction in buying momentum.  A sell signal was registered on the MACD yesterday and confirmed today.  So, is the price going to crash?

Looking at the MFI sometimes provides an incomplete picture without the OBV.  If we look at the OBV, we will see that there is no strong distribution going on.  So, although the MFI suggests a slowing down in buying momentum, the OBV reassures by suggesting that the counter is not undergoing any distribution.  The logical conclusion is that weak holders are once again being shaken out.  However, this does not mean that price will not drift lower.  We might see 16c tested yet.  That coincides with the fundamental fair value I have ascribed to the shares of Healthway Medical when I did a revaluation on 24 Feb: "Healthway Medical: An updated valuation."

If 16c fails to hold, we could possibly see 13.5c tested and would relegate Healthway Medical to a wide trading band although the rising MAs at the moment suggest that the uptrend is still intact.

Related post:
Healthway Medical: A beautiful symmetry.
Healthway Medical: An updated valuation.

Planning to travel? Check out ZUJI.

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Do I make money from this blog?  I was asked this question recently.  Frankly, I started this blog out of curiosity last Christmas Eve as I was wondering what is this blogging business all about. I've always enjoyed sharing my ideas with friends and family.  So, I guess I've just moved up to the next level with my blog in that I am sharing my ideas with a bigger audience.  Of course, it helps that I actually enjoy writing.

I didn't know I could make money from blogging. However, I did discover quite quickly that there are many ways of making money through a blog, especially for a blog with a strong readership base.  I found out that there are sites which actually charge a membership fee and there are some which charge a fee for subscription (and within the first month of my blog being set up, I actually received an email asking me how much do I charge for subscription and, a little bewildered, I told the writer that it's free).

The most common way to make money from a blog is through ad placements.  For some time now, I've had ads in my blog.  There are companies which would pay according to the number of impressions my blog generates.  There are companies which would only pay if visitors actually click on the ads.  There are companies which would only pay if visitors click on their ads AND actually buy something.

I checked my account with ZUJI recently and found that someone made a purchase and I have been credited with a small percentage as a commission.  It works! 

So, when you plan your future holidays, please click on the ZUJI advertisement banner in my blog's header and see what they have to offer. You get a good deal AND make a small monetary contribution towards my blogging efforts at the same time.  Cool?  Thanks for the support.  :)

Golden Agriculture: Partial divestment at 59c.

If you have been following my posts on Golden Agriculture in recent days, you would get an impression of how TA works for me.  TA can never show us what will happen.  It can only show what might happen and there will always be two possibilities in price movement, up or down, with varying probabilities.  What we can see quite clearly would be things like supports, resistance and trend, amongst a few other things.  TA informs on fair exit prices in the event that price goes up and in the event the price goes down, what are safer entry prices.  If the uptrend is intact, buy at supports and wait to sell at resistance; if the price does not move up but moves back down to support, consider increasing exposure.

Using Golden Agriculture as a case study, let us do a recap:

In my post of 5 March, I mentioned that Golden Agriculture's price action formed a white hammer, closing at 54.5c, suggesting that a trend reversal is at hand.  Initial resistance at 57c, followed by 59c.  On 8 Mar, I mentioned that the white spinning top formed was unlikely to be a trend reversal signal because it did not take place after several consecutive days of upmove in price.  On 9 Mar, yesterday, a doji was formed, another possible trend reversal signal and it was accompanied by a decline in the MFI.  I suggested that if the malaise continued today, the counter might do a gap cover to 54.5c where it will have initial support and I would accumulate on weakness as the uptrend is intact with the rising 100dMA at 50.5c.

So, the strategy?  Divest at resistance of 57c and 59c in case of an upmove.  Accumulate on weakness in case of a move down to 54.5c and 50.5c as the uptrend is intact.  Whichever direction the price moves, we have a plan. My overnight sell queue was done and I have partially divested at 59c this morning, retaining a smallish position in case the price continues to move up.  This is a hedge, which is another one of my strategies.

For anyone who has been following my trading strategy so far, I hope you have made some good money.  Remember, it is never wrong to take profit.

Related post:
Rationale for partial divestment.

Golden Agriculture and Healthway Medical closed unchanged.

Tuesday, March 9, 2010


Golden Agriculture closed unchanged today on lower volume at 56c, forming a doji in the process. MFI has dipped below 50% which indicates a breakdown in positive buying momentum. If the malaise continues tomorrow, we might see the counter do a gap cover to 54.5c. This is very close to the rising 50dMA while the rising 20dMA is at 54c. If these supports break, strong support is provided by the rising 100dMA at 50.5c. Overall, the uptrend is intact and I would buy more on weakness.




Healthway Medical's EGM took place today to seek shareholders' approval on plans to expand in China. Shareholders' approval are also sought for the share placements to IFC and five substantial shareholders. Some were expecting this to give the counter a bit of a boost but that did not materialise today as the price hit 18.5c, the previous XR high before retreating to 17.5c, forming a graveston doji. Indeed, the bullish picture from yesterday did not follow through as the volume today was significantly reduced, suggesting a lack of strong buy ups.


As I mentioned in an earlier post, I've sold a third of my remaining investment in Healthway Medical at 17.5c and will sell more at 18.5c. Technically, if the counter does a pull back to 15.5c, which is where we find the rising 20d and 50d MAs, that might be a good entry price as the trend is still up.


This counter has run up from a recent low of 13.5c on 11 Feb to the high of 18.5c today. MFI shows how it went from being oversold to overbought in the same period. We should not be disappointed if it decides to take a break.

STI and AIMS-AMP Capital Industrial REIT.

STI's movement today shows indecision as it started the day higher, see-sawed a bit and closed almost unchanged at 2839.54. What we can say for sure is that the 50dMA at 2810 provides initial support and the rising 100dMA at 2780 provides a stronger support. It remains to be seen if it could overcome the gap resistance at 2850. If it overcomes 2850, it is good news for the bulls.


I know many out there are turning cautious and even bearish but the higher lows and the higher highs on the MFI are encouraging. We see that in the OBV as well. Failing to move higher, the STI should not come crashing down either. Please see my earlier post on how the STI might behave in March: STI: Marching in place in March.



Turning defensive, I bought more units in AIMS-AMP Capital Industrial REIT today at 21c. Fundamentally, I like the numbers. Please see:AIMS-AMP Capital Industrial REIT. This is probably the best value for money industrial property REIT in Singapore right now. Increasing the weightage of this REIT in my portfolio diversifies away from an emphasis I've had on Saizen REIT in recent months.
Technically, the price looks like it has bottomed at 20.5c and has begun to move up. The MACD did a bullish crossover with the signal line and the stochastics has started to move up from the oversold region. 21.5c is the resistance provided by the flat 50dMA. It might take a while for the counter to move up in price but the limited downside makes it technically attractive to increase my investment here.

Golden Agriculture: Buy signal confirmed.

Monday, March 8, 2010

Crude palm oil (CPO) closed up 1.46% today or RM39 to close at RM2,709 (US$811).  The outlook is bullish and CPO's price might push higher yet.  As mentioned in my previous post on Golden Agriculture, this is good news indeed for the company.



Golden Agriculture did a bullish gap up today, closing at 56c, forming a white spinning top.  Indecision?  Seeing how the spinning top did not take place after at least several consecutive days of upmove in price (because at least several days in one direction is required to qualify price movement as a trend), it is unlikely to be a trend reversal signal. 

The buy signal seen in the MACD is confirmed today.  50% on the MFI has lived up to expectations and acted as a support, preventing the index from declining which would have signalled negative buying momentum.  All in all, chances of Golden Agriculture's price pushing higher seems good.  In the event that 57c is taken out, 59c (138.2% Fibo resistance) would be the resistance to watch. Support remains at 50c, a many times tested candlestick support and resistance level which coincides with the rising 100dMA.

Healthway Medical: A boost from DMG & Partners.

Healthway Medical's target price was revised upwards by DMG & Partners to 26c from 21c after being reduced from 28c not too long ago.  Target price is raised this time "taking into account the potential growth that the new clinics can generate, despite an enlarged share base."  Why didn't they take this into account the last time when the target price was reduced to 21c (the reason given for the lower target price being the dilution from an enlarged share base then)?  It went on to say that "Healthway can potentially open another 30 medical centres in China....This would fuel earnings growth going forward."




Let's look at the charts today.  Price moved to touch a high of 18c after breaking a stubborn resistance level at 17c, forming a white spinning top in the process.  Spinning tops usually signify indecision and are generally treated by chartists as possible reversal signals.  The MFI has moved into overbought territory while 18c happens to be the 138.2% Fibo resistance as well.  However, the expansion in volume today, as price pushed upwards, is impressive and is more than three times the volume of the last session.  This suggests that the price might push higher yet.  If this happens, the XR high of 18.5c will be tested next.

I have sold a third of my remaining position in Healthway Medical today at 17.5c which I've identified as the XR equivalent of 19.5c CR.  This is also fundamentally trading at 10% higher than the fair value I've ascribed to Healthway Medical's shares, which is 16c.  I will sell more if its price moves to retest 18.5c.  Beyond 18.5c, the ultimate bullish target I have is 21.5c which is the XR equivalent of 24c CR I arrived at a couple of months ago.  At 21.5c, I would divest almost all of my investment in the company.  I would have hit my targetted investment returns then.

I maintain that buying into Healthway Medical at prices higher than 16c now is a bet on a very strong improvement in future earnings, strong enough to recover all the EPS lost in dilution and more.  It has to be more or else, Healthway Medical's fair value would stagnate.  I would prefer to be cautious in the midst of too many potentials, especially when mostly positive potentials have been emphasised.

Related post:
Healthway Medical: An updated valuation.

Money management: Is gambling a bad thing?

Sunday, March 7, 2010


At first glance, the title of this post seems like a rhetorical question.  After all, the Chinese people have a saying, which literally translated would say "Ten gamble, nine lose." 

Even though the odds are stacked against us, many are attracted by the excitement that gambling offers and the possibility of instant riches.

Personally, I don't have a very strong stand for or against gambling.  However, from the standpoint of money management, anything that might cripple our finances should be avoided. 

At face value, rationally, since the chances of losing money is much higher compared to making it, gambling should be avoided like the plague (or H1N1, in today's context).

A real life story which I remember to this day was a TV interview with Ng Man Tat, a Hong Kong actor.  Before that interview, Ng was churning out movie after movie with Stephen Chow Sing Chi, the Hong Kong king of comedy, for a few years.  It was during that interview that I understood why. 

Ng was addicted to gambling and lost a fortune.  He approached Chow Yun Fatt, a Hong Kong superstar who has gone international, a very good friend, and asked for a loan but was turned down.  Initially, Ng was very angry with Chow but later on he became grateful as he worked hard to pay off his debts. 

Ng said that if Chow had helped him to pay off his debts, he would never learn and be rid of his addiction to gambling.

Many, if not all, of us must have a story or two to tell about the misfortune that gambling has brought to people we know directly or indirectly. 

However, we have also heard stories of people getting really rich through gambling, haven't we?  I remember reading in the papers how, over the years, in some months, the Singapore Sweep's top prize (which is S$2.2m today) was won by foreign workers who went back to their home country, bought land, became landlords, got married and lived happily ever after. 

OK, the last bit is just my imagination.

So, what am I trying to say? 

Well, I don't think gambling is totally bad.  It is not one of those things which is clear cut like a hit and run (which is what Dr Silviu Ionescu, the Romanian diplomat, is suspected of doing here in Singapore), rape, robbery or murder.  These are just plain evil. 

Gambling is more of a grey area.

From a money management standpoint once more, if we budget a small sum of money for entertainment and classify gambling as one form of entertainment, as long as we stay within what is budgeted, gambling would not become financially crippling and it might even be rewarding. 

The Chinese people have a saying, "mai ge xi wang", or "buying a hope".  This, I feel, is not a bad thing. 

If you are a regular reader of my blog, you could probably tell that I'm a pragmatist, not an idealist.  Everyone has his or her own beliefs and values.  Gambling is one of those issues that will always attract strong opinions.  That is why I thought about it for a long time before deciding to blog about it. 

I hope I won't be flamed for my ideas. -.-"

Interesting article:
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/cna/20100302/tap-130-casino-games-prove-popular-shops-231650b.html


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