Golden Agriculture: Further divestment at 60c.

I hope Golden Agriculture made many happy today as the reversal signals seen a few days ago followed through nicely.  The price closed at 60c today, the previous high. My overnight sell queue at 60c was done towards the end of the day.

Looking at the chart, it is obvious that Golden Agriculture is firmly back in the uptrend channel.  Price action formed three wickless white candles in a row, reminiscent of a pattern which chart watchers call the Three White Soldiers and this pattern could signal more upside to come.

MFI rose above 50% convincingly, signalling positive buying momentum.  OBV continues to rise, signalling continuing accumulation.  The MACD has crossed the signal line in a bullish crossover.  All the momentum oscillators are bullish and also hint of more upside to come.

I have drawn some Fibo lines to determine the next resistance levels to watch in case of further upside.  I would like to draw your attention to 63.5c and 64.5c as these would be in closer proximity to the uptrend resistance in the course of the new week.  64.5c was also the closing and opening prices of the peak achieved in mid January on the 11th and 12th respectively.  This price would likely be fresh in the memories of market participants and would thus be a strong resistance.  I do not expect it to be taken out for now but I could be wrong.

Bugbear? Volume has not expanded in this latest move up in price and this suggests that we should not be too euphoric. I have put my remaining Golden Agriculture shares in the queue to sell in case its price hits the resistance levels I have identified in the preceding paragraph.

Certainly, from a fundamental perspective, the very strong showing by crude oil which is trading at almost US$85 a barrel as of now might have a spillover effect on crude palm oil and this would surely benefit Golden Agriculture.

Related posts:
Golden Agriculture: Reversal confirmed.
Golden Agriculture: Partial divestment at 57.5c.

Unique visitors: Crossing the 40,000 mark.

It might be a cliche but time really flies.  It has been slightly more than three months since I started this blog last Christmas Eve. Has it been so long? It feels like I just started blogging last week.  I guess we don't feel the passage of time when we are doing something we enjoy.

Blogging has introduced new groups of people in my life.  I used to simply share ideas with friends and family but I am now sharing ideas in cyberspace and reaching out to a wider audience.  I have made contact with fellow bloggers and I have many visitors to my blog, some of whom have left comments and exchanged ideas with me. My social life has become a tad fuller.

Today, the number of unique vistors to my blog crossed the 40,000 mark.  This is overwhelming and I am truly humbled by the support my blog has received so far.  I guess I must be doing something right here.  Although this is really a personal blog, your support and encouragement give me that little push to continue blogging and sharing my ideas.  Thank you very much and have a great long weekend. :)


Thank You Images

AusGroup: Update.

AusGroup seems to have some trouble breaking resistance at 61.5c. If we draw a trendline support from 9 Feb, we see the support at 59.5c today, it is quite clear that the uptrend is broken.

However, I would like to point out that volume was rather low and, in fact, it is true for other down days in the past few weeks. Volume has been generally lower on down days and higher on up days for AusGroup recently. This suggests that a longer term accumulation is underway and this is confirmed by the rising OBV in recent weeks. However, with the MFI turning down, I expect some weakness in the near term but I do not expect a crash in price.

If 58.5c gives way, the next supports are at 57.5c (50% Fibo) and 56.5c (38.2% Fibo).  If the price action moves above the trendline support once more, resistance remains at 61.5c.

CapitaMalls Asia: Inverted black hammer.

CapitaMalls Asia's volume expanded on a down day as the 50dMA was breached.  It closed at $2.26, forming an inverted black hammer in the process, which happens to be another possible reversal signal.

OBV has declined but the overall trend of accumulation is still intact.  MFI shows reduced buying momentum while the MACD has dipped below zero, signalling the end of positive momentum.  Having said this, the picture of a low volume pullback has not changed.

Drawing Fibo lines to determine where the supports are in case the price does continue to decline shows the next support levels at $2.25 and $2.23.  The low in February was established at $2.19 and should be a strong support if tested.  The downside is still pretty limited, therefore.

------------------------------------------------------------

The Chinese people love to shop. Grand Gateway Plaza in Shanghai:

Golden Agriculture: Partial divestment at 57.5c. (Rabobank's John Baker speaks.)

Golden Agriculture breached the resistance at 57.5c and closed at 58c, forming a nice bullish white candle in the process.  In my usual style, I partially divested at resistance on the way up and it's 57.5c in this case.  I have put in a sell queue at the next resistance of 60c, the previous high.

Although price action formed a white candle today, the slight reduction in volume creates a bit of unease, especially when volume expanded on the STI as the index tumbled almost 46 points to close at 2,887.46.

OBV continues to rise and MFI has turned up, indicating continuing accumulation and a return of positive buying momentum.  This is comforting.  MACD has touched the signal line and a bullish crossover seems imminent.

-------------------------------------------------------
Baker Says Palm Oil `Stands Out' Among Soft Commodities.
22 March 2010, Bloomberg.

A tale of two reversals and Saizen REIT.

In the last two sessions, I spoke of reversals for CapitaMalls Asia and Golden Agriculture and how their prices are likely to move higher.

CapitaMalls Asia disappoints today as its price closed at $2.29, supported by the 50dMA, forming a black hammer in the process.  A black hammer is actually another possible reversal signal.  The trading volume continues to decline which re-inforces the picture of a low volume pullback.  The MFI turned down, forming a lower high while the OBV is more or less flat.   All these suggest that the selling is half-hearted at best.

I continue to believe that buying at the current price has limited downside even though the buy signal on the MACD yesterday was negated today.

Golden Agriculture, on the other hand, put on a satisfying show of strength as it gapped up and closed at 57c, forming a bullish white candle in the process today.  Volume has also expanded with the rise in price, suggesting some sustainability.  The MACD's buy signal is confirmed as it moved upwards today, poised to do a bullish crossover with the signal line.  OBV continues to rise, signalling ongoing accumulation.

MFI, however, continues to decline, suggesting weak buying momentum.  We want to see the MFI turn up as that would signal a strengthening buying momentum.  Otherwise, any appreciation in price might turn out to be mediocre.

Saizen REIT has a new substantial shareholder, Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Limited.  Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Limited bought 2,149,000 units on 25 March 10, making it a substantial shareholder with 49,659,000 units or 5.2112 % of Saizen REIT.  Percentage of issue share capital computed based on unit capital of 952,927,055 units.  Saizen REIT closed unchanged at 16.5c today.  Longer term MAs are all rising and the longer term uptrend is intact.

CapitaMalls Asia: Reversal confirmed. (With comments on the US economy.)

Last Friday, I suggested that a reversal might be on hand as price action formed a white spinning top, with stalling selling pressure and continuing accumulation.

MFI turned up today and OBV is still rising as price action formed a white hammer.  Suggestion is for the price to continue rising with immediate resistance being provided by the 20dMA at $2.32.  Breaking this will see the recent high of $2.41 tested as resistance and I have an eventual target of $2.55 which should be the top of a longer basing process. The MACD has a buy signal today.

Buying at the current level has limited downside as it would be almost at the support provided by the 50dMA at $2.29.  Vested.

------------------------------------------------
Growth May Slow But "There's No New Recession Anywhere in Sight"

Posted Mar 26, 2010 01:51pm EDT by Peter Gorenstein



My sentiments are similar for 2010.  This guy makes sense.

And, as for a double-dip recession, Achuthan says it isn't in the cards. "There's no new recession anywhere in sight. In 2010, the business cycle remains your friend," he says with confidence.
---------------------------------------------------

IMF foresees rapid US growth
AFP - Tuesday, March 30

WARSAW (AFP) - – The US economy looks set to return to relatively rapid growth soon, International Monetary Fund chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn said here on Monday. "The US economy, whilst it has been hard hit by the crisis, may recover rather rapidly," Strauss-Kahn said in a speech at the Warsaw School of Economics, during a visit to Poland.

"It's a flexible economy," noted Frenchman Strauss-Kahn, who is managing director of the Washington-based global lender.

"We'll see how rapid the recovery in the US economy can be. But I'm rather confident that the US economy will grow rather rapidly again quite soon," he added.

In January, the IMF raised its forecast for US growth this year to 2.7 percent from output in 2009, from its earlier 1.5-percent forecast. Strauss-Kahn did not say whether the IMF was set to revise its forecast upwards again.

Golden Agriculture: Reversal confirmed.

Last Friday, I suggested that Golden Agriculture spotted a Bullish Harami Cross pattern.  OBV showed a cessation of distribution and a reversal to accumulation.

Price action formed an inverted white hammer today with OBV continuing its rise and the MFI upturning, suggesting a return of buying momentum.  The MACD also spots a buy signal today.  The support at 54.5c is confirmed and is underpinned by the 50dMA.  Immediate resistance at 56c.  In the event that this is taken out, next resistance is at 57.5c.  This is followed by 60c, the recent high. 

The rising 100dMA is at 52c and the rising 200dMA is at 47c.  The longer term uptrend is intact.  In the immediate term, we want to see the price closing above 55c to rejoin the uptrending channel to resume the short term uptrend.  A close above 56c would be a firm signal that the short term uptrend is back in play. Vested.

A movie: How to train your dragon.

I know this has nothing to do with the stock market but we need to unwind and not think of the stock market all the time, right?

I am sharing this with all my readers:



Uber cool! I must watch this movie!

Golden Agriculture: Reversal signal?

Golden Agriculture was sold down yesterday due to negative news regarding Sinar Mas group:

Cargill wants Sinar Mas to address concerns over its agri practices. Cargill has threatened to drop Sinar Mas as a supplier if it fails to address general concerns over alleged illegal logging, a statement on its website said. Top European palm-oil buyers such as Unilever and Nestle have already stopped buying palm oil from Sinar Mas after Greenpeace released a report about forest clearing by Sinar Mas. A statement on the Cargill website said the firm had asked the secretariat of the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) − an industry body of planters and green groups − to investigate the allegations made by Greenpeace "about illegal forest clearance and the Indonesian palm oil company, Sinar Mas.".....

There are two listed plantation companies listed under the Sinar Mas Group: Golden Agri and PT Smart. If Cargill pulls Sinar Mas from its supplier list, Golden Agri’s reputation in the palm-oil products market could be further dented. Furthermore, Cargill would become the third client to remove Sinar Mas from their supplier lists. To recap, Unilever and Nestle have stopped buying from the Sinar Mas Group since Dec 09 and Feb 10, respectively. Unilever accounted for 3% and Nestle for 0.2% of Golden Agri’s sales in 2009. Should Cargill follow suit, the impact could be more material at around 5% of its sales...

Read full report:
http://www.remisiers.org/research//GoldenAgri-260310[1].pdf

Golden Agriculture's price action today formed a doji, closing at 54.5c, seemingly recapturing this support level.  A doji formed after a long black candle in the previous session is a possible two stick reversal pattern which chart watchers call the Bullish Harami Cross pattern.

Although the MFI is down, suggesting a weakening buying momentum, the OBV has turned up suggesting that distribution has stopped for now and, indeed, reversed to see some accumulation.

We will need confirmation in the next session to see if the reversal signal is valid.  In the event of a reversal, the initial resistance is at 56c, a many times tested support turned resistance.  This is followed by 57.5c and 60c, the recent high.

CapitaMalls Asia: White spinning top.

A possible reversal signal is observed in CapitaMalls Asia's chart today: a white spinning top.  This has happened on the back of lower volumes as its price declined, suggesting a classic textbook case of a low volume pullback.  MFI has flattened while the OBV is still showing a gradual rise.  This suggests that the selling momentum has stalled and that accumulation is ongoing.

The 50dMA seems determined to act as the immediate support as its rate of decline slows.  The price action is caught between the 50dMA and the 20dMA which has flattened at $2.31.

Bollinger bands will squeeze as the volatility in price action falls.  The probability of an upward movement in price is higher than a downward movement in this instance.  The target of such an upward movement is the top of the base formation which is also where we find major resistance and that is at $2.55.