Tea with AK71: A PDA phone?

Nuffnang is running a HTC mobile phone campaign on my blog for a few days and this triggers something personal in my mind.

Many friends own PDA phones but I have not found the need for one myself so far.  Of course, I have been described by many as an IT dinosaur.  So, I am not a good reference, I guess.

A friend just bought a HTC mobile phone a month ago and he says that it's pretty decent and very useful. Maybe, just maybe, I should consider a PDA phone too.  Do you own a PDA mobile phone? What is your experience with it? Is a HTC good or do you think that other PDA phones are better? I would appreciate any good advice.  :-)

Charts in brief: 20 April 10.

The STI clawed back 20.44 points today to close at 2,981.31 on respectably high volume. U.S. Futures are all showing an upward bias as of now.  This bull has legs.

Despite guarded sentiment, Phillip Securities says longer-term outlook for market still positive: “The reaction to Goldman’s fraud charges could eventually be trumped by what has been very positive S&P 500 earnings results.” Written by The Edge, Tuesday, 20 April 2010 13:30.

CapitaMalls Asia: Another black candle day as price closed at the support identified at $2.20.  My overnight buy queue was done.  Will the counter retest the low of $2.19 made in February this year or would price bottom here and start a basing process to form a double bottom?  Only time will tell.  Stochastics is suggesting that the counter is very oversold and further downside should see the next significant support at $2.12.

Golden Agriculture: Another doji as price stays above the rising 20dMA.  Volume has reduced. All MAs are trending upwards. From the MFI, it is obvious that positive buying momentum is lacking. Hard to say which way this might go.  So, no fresh positions for now.  Would buy some if price retraces to 56.5c.

China Hongxing: Closing at 15.5c, it formed a gravestone doji as price touched a high of 16c today.  Although it is a gravestone doji, I think it more positive than negative here as price did not touch 15c the whole day.  This means that, for the first time since 26 January, China Hongxing managed to trade at or above the 50dMA the whole day. The MACD continues to rise and seems to be sneaking a peek above zero, heralding a return of positive momentum. However, volume is anaemic and this will have to expand for a convincing move up.

Courage Marine: Low volume day as MFI and OBV both turned up slightly. Not much to say here. I would accumulate on pullbacks. Overcoming the gap resistance at 23.5c should test the immediate target of 25.5c.  Eventual target is still 27c.

Saizen REIT: Someone sold down 3m warrants and 1m shares at 7.5c and 16.5c respectively, rather late in the day.  This caused the OBV and MFI to both turn down.  16.5c is now the new floor for Saizen REIT.  This is a support level provided by the 50dMA.  My overnight buy queue for more warrants at 7.5c was filled.

Healthway Medical: 16c is still holding up nicely as the support.  OBV is flat.  No obvious distribution.  MFI is declining gently, which is logical. This counter might just be basing at 16c for a while. Further downside will find support at 15c.

NOL: Formed a higher low yesterday as it closed at $2.24 today, forming a wickless white candle.  Nice.  Uptrending OBV suggests continuing accumulation. Taking out the recent high of $2.35 would suggest an immediate target of $2.50.  Eventual target is still $2.60.  A rising 20dMA and candlestick supports should limit downside in the near term to $2.11 but a stronger support is found at $1.96.

Goldman Sachs reported first-quarter earnings of $3.3 billion, or $5.59 a share, on revenue of $12.78 billion. Earnings nearly doubled from a year ago and the results were well ahead of consensus expectations. Posted Apr 19, 2010 05:16pm EDT by Aaron Task.





Related post:
Charts in brief: 19 April 10.

Charts in brief: 19 April 10.

Most of my portfolio hardly budged as the STI retreated 1.5% today.  The exceptions are the likes of CapitaMalls Asia and SPH.  AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, LMIR, First REIT and Saizen REIT are holding steady.  I believe that any further weakness would bring out the buyers as the problem in the USA with Goldman Sachs should not have any material impact here in Asia.  It is not a financial meltdown or anything like it.  It is a legal matter and the proceedings are domestic in nature.

STI drops 1.5% to 2,960.93 at closing
Monday, 19 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

CapitalMalls Asia: Closed at $2.21.  I have put in my buy queue for tomorrow at $2.20.  In the last three sessions (today inclusive), the volume has been reducing as price retreated.  Stochastics has dipped into oversold territory.  MFI is declining fast and OBV shows some distribution.  Overall, not a pretty picture.  Any purchase of shares in this company is now based on fundamentals, not technicals as expectations of a feisty reversal is out the window for now.

Golden Agriculture: Price closed at 59c, supported by the rising 20dMA.  A doji is formed.  This is, of course, a possible reversal signal.  The MACD has just completed a bearish crossover.  Further weakness will see support at 56.5c, provided by the rising 50dMA.  I might reload then.

Healthway Medical: >2.6m shares sold down at 16c at 5.05pm, creating a gravestone doji in the process.  This is the first time the counter has closed at 16c since 3 March 2010.  The MACD has gone under zero, suggesting an end of positive momentum.  16c remains a critical support.  If this goes, the next support is at 15c.  That would be a nice price to accumulate some.

Saizen REIT: Some profit taking continues. MFI has formed a lower high but the OBV is flat, suggesting that although the buying momentum has stalled, there is no heavy selling down going on. The rising 50dMA is at 16.5c which coincides with my believe that 16.5c is the new floor for the counter and should be a strong support.  Uptrend is intact.

SPH: A big black candle day as price managed to close just 1c above $4.00.  Any further weakness will see support at $3.89 where we find the rising 20dMA.  The rising 50dMA is at $3.82.  I would accumulate on weakness.  Uptrend is intact.

Courage Marine: Down 1c, MFI is dipping out of overbought territory.  Any weakness should find support at 21.5c.  The flat 200dMA should provide support at 20c in case of further weakness.  I would accumulate on weakness as I like the fundamentals over the next few months at least.  Uptrend is intact.

China Hongxing: Closed 0.5c lower on lower volume. Signs are still good that this counter is probably prime for a breakout. Price action is now trapped between the 50dMA (15.5c) and the 20dMA (15c) in a crab-like pincer.  Going by the rising MFI and OBV since 30 March, the chances are good that price is likely to move higher.

Related post:
Charts in brief: 16 Apr 10.

Avoiding the memory effect.

Human beings remember well things which are particularly unpleasant or particularly pleasant.  In short, human beings remember extremes very well.  However, as investors, we really have to stay level headed and be in tune with the present, the current reality, and not let the past shackle us.

For example, I have a friend who bought a few hundred lots of Healthway Medical's shares when it was 12.5c, if I remember correctly, last year and sold most of them at 13c or so just before the price ran up.  The investment in Healthway Medical was one premised on its relatively strong fundamentals and inexpensive valuation.  However, any shareholder of the company at the time would remember the months of malaise in its price action last year and my friend divested most of his shares.  With only 100 lots left, he became reluctant to sell even as the price rose to hit the eventual technical target I identified at 19.5c shortly after.

When we spoke, he told me, "but I only have 100 lots left". I told him that he must not base his decision on the larger position he once had.  He had to make his decision on what he had then which was 100 lots.  So, the question to ask was: "if he did not have those hundreds of lots which he sold off cheap (on hindsight) and 100 lots were all he had to begin with, would he sell some, if not all, to realise some gains?"  Freed from memories of the past, the answer was a loud and clear "yes".  Never be chained down by what could have been.  Focus on the present and what is.

Similarly, I have friends who told me that they should have bought Healthway Medical shares at 10c when I first started accumulating in mid 2009.  That's the beauty of hindsight, isn't it?  These same friends also said that they should have started accumulating Saizen REIT at 10c.  The memories of the past chained them down and they could not act in the present.

I would tell anyone that I only started accumulating Saizen REIT at 13c, not 10c, and I kept on buying as its price rose. I bought more at 16.5c too.  Why?  The uptrend is intact and this has not changed.  The fundamentals are still compelling.  There is no reason for me to sell if the very reasons which compelled me to buy have not changed and are still valid.  Mind you, these reasons could be fundamental, technical or both.  I am not a purist.  I am a pragmatist.

I might have shared some of these thoughts before in some other posts.  I cannot remember but if I am repeating myself, I beg your pardon.  Please humour me.  Have a great Sunday!

Tea with AK71: Top 5 posts.

I visited Google Analytics just now to see how my blog is doing.  I was surprised when I found that the most viewed post is actually something I wrote in December last year when I first started this blog.  I guess I am not the only one who is interested in building a high yield portfolio.  Sweet!  Or do you prefer teh-o kosong?

Here are the top 5 posts of my blog based on the number of pageviews for the period under review (March 17 to April 16, 2010):

No. 1: High yield portfolio. 
Dated: 24 Dec 2009.

No. 2: Courage Marine: Riding the waves of recovery.
Dated: 3 Apr 2010.

No. 3: Portfolio strategy: Undervalued high yield counters.
Dated: 22 Feb 2010.

No. 4: LMIR: More units at 10% yield.
Dated: 17 Mar 2010.

No. 5: Healthway Medical: An updated valuation.
Dated: 24 Feb 2010.

Given the relative "youth" of the post in second place, I guess the interest in Courage Marine must be quite strong.  Good luck to all fellow shareholders. :)

Charts in brief: 16 Apr 10.

STI retreated today on lower volume to close at 3,007.19.  The market is digesting its gains and this is not something I would worry about for now.

STI down 0.5%, struggling to hold above 3,000
Friday, 16 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

China Hongxing: Coincidentally, DMG & Partners issued a buy call at 2.50pm, approximately an hour after my post about how the counter might present a trading opportunity this afternoon.  Their target price is 22c.  Just like their target price of 30c for Healthway Medical, it is a 12 months target.  So, I would stick to my earlier chart reading, recognising that if 15.5c is cleared, the next resistance levels are at 17.5c and 18.5c.  For the report by DMG & Partners, please see: 16 Apr 10 China Hongxing: Buy.

 

Healthway Medical: Technically, the weakness is obvious as the support at 16c has been tested four out of five sessions this week.  This support is provided by the flat 50dMA.  If 16c goes, the rising 100dMA should provide the next level of support at 15c.  OBV is flat and this should be viewed positively as it suggests that there is no heavy selling down of the stock.  So, downward pressure is somewhat limited.

Golden Agriculture: Closed down 1c at 59.5c on heavier volume. MACD has made contact with the signal line and is poised for a bearish crossover.  Things are looking somewhat bleak but let's see if the rising 20dMA will be able to push up the price next week.  The higher high on the MFI does suggest a return of positive buying momentum. This would confirm that the counter is doing a correction using time.  If the 20dMA fails to hold up as the support next week, the rising 50dMA is at 56.5c and the rising 100dMA is at 54.5c.  These two longer term MAs would provide stronger supports then.

CapitaMalls Asia: Price has broken down from the sideways movement. I see strong support at $2.20 and that's where I would buy more. Upside eventual target remains at $2.55.

Courage Marine: Demolished the gap resistance at 23.5c in early morning trading to touch a high of 24c.  The gap resistance soon reasserted itself and the counter ended the session at 23.5c.  The white candle day took place on the back of much increased volume.  OBV turned up sharply, suggesting heavy accumulation. MFI continues pushing higher into overbought territory but if the bullishness continues, the index could stay overbought for much longer.

SPH: Price pushed higher to close at $4.07 but volume has reduced significantly. MFI has pushed higher into overbought territory. OBV continues its upward trajectory, suggesting continuing accumulation. Upside target is still $4.20 but it remains to be seen if this could be achieved.  Volume should expand as price pushes higher for the upmove to be sustainable.

Saizen REIT:  Extreme low volume day.  Volume has not been so low in more than two weeks.  There has been some profit taking going on but price has stayed firmly above the 20dMA.  MFI shows a decline in buying momentum and OBV shows that some distribution has been taking place.   Despite all this, price has stayed at 17c and this shows strong support.  If 17c gives way, we should find a stronger support at 16.5c, provided by the rising 50dMA.  It is my personal believe that 16.5c is the new floor for Saizen REIT if it is ever tested.
Please see: Saizen REIT: A symmetrical triangle?

Related post:
Charts in brief: 15 April 10.
China Hongxing: Prime for a breakout?

China Hongxing: Prime for a breakout?

I first blogged about China Hongxing on 6 March 2010.  In that post, I said: "Analysts are downgrading the prospects of the company en masse despite the company reporting a net cash position of 22c per share. The share price closed at 14c on 5 March. CIMB-GK and Kim Eng Securities even ceased coverage of the company altogether."  Please see: China Hongxing: Another S-chip bites the dust.

On 14 March 2010, I blogged about the company again.  In that post, I said: "The decline in China Hongxing's price seems to have halted and rebounded as it was supported by the channel support at 14c. The decline in price has been accompanied by a decline in trading volume. The Stochastics has just turned up from the oversold region. These indicators suggest that downward pressure is limited but it might be a temporary respite." Please see: China Hongxing: Downside target.

As it turns out, the limited downward pressure allowed China Hongxing to bottom at 14c. Its price made a bullish move up to touch a high of 16.5c before closing at 16c on 7 April on the back of very high volume.  The 20dMA has been rising gently and the counter has been trading above it since 7 April.  Immediate support is now at 15c, provided by the 20dMA.  Immediate resistance is at 15.5c, provided by the descending 50dMA.

Since 8 April, volume has been reducing as price was capped by the declining 50dMA.  Yesterday, volume expanded as price broke resistance to touch 16c but ultimately closed at 15.5c.  The MACD has been rising and seems poised to cross zero to herald the return of positive momentum.  Strictly speaking, I do not see a buy signal yet. However, technically, this counter might be prime for a breakout.  A breakout would see the 100d and 200d MAs acting as resistance at 17.5c and 18.5c respectively.  Might the current setup be good for a trade?

Tea with AK71: A frog in a well.

As I grow older and as I get to know more people and see more things, the feeling of personal insignificance increases. 

The growing knowledge of my ignorance is humbling.

I am but a frog in a well, seeing only a patch of sky. I have asked myself before in the past if I would ever jump out of this well. 

However, over time, I have stopped asking this question. Why? 

I wonder if I really want to jump out of this well. 

I have everything I need in this well and I am protected from predators. Perhaps, what I need is just a bigger well so that I can see a larger patch of sky. 

Better to be a happy and healthy frog in a larger well than to be a frog freely hopping in the open and be in constant danger of being preyed upon?

Is this a bad thing, to be contented?  

Or perhaps I am just growing apathetic with age? 

Could it be wisdom as some told me that with age comes wisdom?  

I am not so sure since my usual rejoinder is that this is not always true.

Charts in brief: 15 April 10.

Another high volume day for the STI.  The index closed hardly changed today.  Unless there are more definite signs to the contrary, the bias is for the index to continue rising.

PM Lee sees ‘good’ growth after record first quarter: Bloomberg
Thursday, 15 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

CapitaMalls Asia: Turning in a set of impressive numbers has not helped its share price as it closed at $2.27 today.  A big black candle day on higher volume.  Fundamentally, this company is very sound.  Technically, it has been rather weak.  It has been consolidating since breaking down from an uptrend on 23 March.  If downward pressure persists, I see strong support at $2.20 and that's where I would buy more. Upside eventual target remains at $2.55 which is a few cents more than DBS Vickers' target price of $2.51.

Retail sales rise a second month as economy rebounds
Thursday, 15 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Golden Agriculture: Mixed signals persist as a white inverted hammer was formed today with price closing the session at 61.5c.  Could we be looking at a correction using time?  Could Golden Agriculture's price be waiting for the 20dMA to catch up?  We have had a series of reversal signals but none has been confirmed as price closed firmly at or above 60c, the immediate support, in the last few sessions.  MFI has formed a higher high after forming higher lows.  Buying momentum is positive. OBV has not declined dramatically. The situation is very dicey.  Wait and see.  No fresh positions and I will hold on to my remaining shares in case the price goes higher.

NOL: Price did not close above $2.30 today and the buy signal on the MACD has been negated.  Volume is much reduced compared to the previous session.  This suggests that this is profit taking rather than a massive selldown.  Further downside should be capped at $2.17, a many times tested resistance turned support.  This is followed by $2.12.  A continuing trek upwards would need to see the price closing above $2.30 firmly and the eventual target is $2.60 then.

Singapore March container traffic up 10% from Feb
Thursday, 15 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Courage Marine: Clinging on to 22.5c, the MFI remains in overbought territory.  I would accumulate on weakness and queue to buy more at 21.5c (one bid above initial support).  Courage Marine's strong fundamentals and the improving Asian economies bode well for the company's fortunes in the near term.

SPH: A very nice white candle day on heavy volume as the price closed firmly above $4.00 at $4.04.  The upside target is now $4.20.  OBV is rising strongly, signalling increased accumulation and the MFI has pushed further into overbought territory. Any pullback would see $3.84 acting as a strong support.

AusGroup:  Sell signal seen on the MACD.   MFI in overbought territory.  A pullback should find support at 63.5c.  70c is the immediate target.

Related post:
Charts in brief: 14 April 10.

Blog's readership profile.

You might have noticed the big blue box on the right side of my blog.  In case you think it's an advertisement, it's not.  I am collecting information on my blog's readership profile.  From the latest figures, my blog receives, on average, 500 unique visitors a day but so far only 23 visitors have taken the poll since it started.  :-(

Please take a few seconds to answer three simple questions in my poll if you have not done so already. Thank you very much.  :-)

Tea with AK71: Money making.

This might be the beginning of another series like "Replies from AK71".  This time, it is "Tea with AK71".  Imagine having tea with me one afternoon, realising much to your dismay what a talkative person I am, and listening to my thoughts on myriad issues.  Small talk, that's exactly what "Tea with AK71" is going to be about.  Another side of AK71?  For sure.  Darjeeling, anyone?

"Something I say more and more as I grow older is, "we can't make all the money in the world".  It is probably something that many others say too but how many actually appreciate the essence of this simple phrase?  When I miss a money making opportunity, I would shrug my shoulders and say, "what to do?".  I do not see any point in berating myself or even making a promise that it will not happen again because I am almost sure that it will happen again. 

Picture by Montwerx.

"I always say that chasing after perfection is like chasing after a rainbow.  We can keep running towards a rainbow but will we get closer to the rainbow? The rainbow is an optical phenomenon after all.  Pretty to look at but unreachable.  Don't be too hard on ourselves. 

"I make my money and others make theirs.  We have different paths and make our money our own ways.  We can share our methods and our experience but we would probably not have the same experience. This is natural and there's nothing wrong with it."

Charts in brief: 14 April 10.

A most sterling performance by the STI today as it surged 48.14 pts to end the session at 3,019.74 on heavy volume. People vested in NOL, DBS, UOB and SembCorp, just to name a few, would have made quite a bit of money.

Singapore shares end near 2-year high on surge in 1Q GDP
Wednesday, 14 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

CapitaMalls Asia:  Despite an impressive 1Q 2010 report, its share price barely moved and closed up 1c at $2.30 as it went XD.  Consolidation continues.
Earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) were $110.9 million for 1Q 2010, 174% higher than the $40.5 million for 1Q 2009.

CapitaMalls Asia records 1Q net earnings of $97m
Wednesday, 14 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

NOL: An impressive white candle day as price shot past the recent high of $2.24 to close at $2.30 after touching a high of $2.34.  We have a buy signal on the MACD.  OBV and MFI have both turned up. With such strong momentum, it is likely to power ahead.  Closing above $2.30 convincingly would give an eventual target of $2.60.

Golden Agriculture:  Another higher low formed on the MFI. Price action formed an inverted white hammer, another reversal signal.  Signals continue to be mixed for Golden Agriculture.  Will the improving buying momentum push the price higher?  Initial support has been established at 60c.  Channel resistance is at 64.5c.

Courage Marine: OBV turned up sharply as volume increased significantly.  Price closed up 0.5c at 22.5c, forming a long legged doji, a reversal signal, as it touched 23c, the previous high.  If the reversal signal is valid, price should find initial support at 21c.  If the chart pattern plays out (neckline at 21.5c), we should see gap resistance at 23.5c taken out and the chart pattern resistance at 25.5c tested with a possibility of a push to the eventual target of 27c.  Could we be seeing a beautiful symmetry in the making?

SPH: Volume expanded as price touched a high of $3.99, just 1c shy of the target of $4.00.  MFI has pushed deeper into overbought territory and OBV has turned up sharply.  Forming a white spinning top today as price closed at $3.97, will it push higher tomorrow?  $4.00 remains the resistance to watch.  If this is taken out, the next target is $4.20.  A retracement would find initial support at $3.84.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Buy signal seen on the MACD.  Price touched a high of 23c before closing at 22c on much higher volume. OBV turned up.  MFI has formed a higher low.  22c is still the resistance to watch but if price closes decisively above 22c in the near future, it would be resistance turned support.  23c is the immediate target.  Immediate support is at 21.5c.

 Related post:
Charts in brief: 13 April 10.