Charts in brief: 28 April 10.

Straits Asia Resources posts 68% fall in Q1 net profit to $15.4m
Wednesday, 28 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

STI drops 2% to 2,932.04 at closing
Wednesday, 28 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

CapitaMalls Asia: A white spinning top formed today on lower volume.  This is a reversal signal, again. The MACD has stopped increasing its distance from the signal line.  This suggests that the downward movement in price has slowed down somewhat in intensity. Stochastics and MFI are going deeper into oversold territory and the OBV turned down slightly.  All in, the technicals are still bearish. If the reversal signal delivers, immediate resistance are at $2.24 and $2.27, provided by the declining 20dMA and 50dMA respectively.

Golden Agriculture: Despite gapping down initially, a white candle was formed today as the counter closed at 59.5c.  However, unable to close higher than the closing price of the previous session is still rather bearish.  OBV is down. MFI is flat which suggests a lack of positive buying momentum. Initial support is still at 57.5c.

Healthway Medical: A gravestone doji formed today as price closed at 15.5c. A dead cross formed as the descending 20dMA cuts the 50dMA from the top. Technically, things look grave, pardon the pun.  However, the more or less flat OBV plus the fact that the Stochastics is in the oversold region suggest that any downward movement is likely to be a slow drift rather than a crash.

Courage Marine: The MFI continues to move lower away from the overbought region.  OBV dips down slightly as the price action formed a doji today. Price touched a low of 22c for the second day in a row, supported by the rising 20dMA.  Perhaps, this counter needs to see the longer term MAs catch up with the 20dMA before its price could move higher. A correction using time, perhaps?

Saizen REIT: It is worth reminding ourselves that the longer term uptrend is intact as the descending 100wMA plays havoc with sentiments. Look at the daily chart and we see the MFI has formed a higher high and a higher low.  Buying momentum has been positive.  In fact, the MACD has turned up slightly today towards the signal line while still above zero.

16.5c is still the support to watch. 17.5c is still the resistance provided by the descending 100wMA.

 
In the weekly chart, it is quite clear that the OBV has been trending up which suggests that steady accumulation is happening over time. Any further weakness in price is likely to bring out more buyers, as such.
 

Singapore’s central bank says inflation could hit 4% in Q4
Wednesday, 28 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Even the 4% being earned in our CPF Special Accounts is just keeping pace with inflation by Q4 this year.  A scary thought. Bungee jumping, anyone?

Be Patient ... Big Jobs Gains Are Coming,
Chris Rupkey Says
Posted Apr 28, 2010 09:00am EDT by Heesun Wee



Las Vegas Sands Corp. Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Sheldon G. Adelson tells Yahoo! SEA's Ion Danker what he thinks of Resorts World Sentosa, 28 April 2010.

What do you think of the competition from Resorts World Sentosa? @ Yahoo! Video

Related post:
Charts in brief: 27 April 10.

Markets are going higher in time.

In a couple of earlier posts, I mentioned that I believe the bull market we are experiencing is a cyclical bull market and that we are actually still caught in a secular bear market.  This means that the previous high set in the markets would not be bested.  So, we have to be careful once markets start testing those old highs.  A quick check against the charts would tell us that we are nowhere near those highs yet.

However, since the lows of March 2009, the markets have recovered tremendously.  The much anticipated correction has been elusive thus far but it will come and it is only a matter of time.  In such a correction, it would be an opportune time to load up on quality stocks for the next leg up. 

I would advise anyone who would like to make some money in the stock market to start drawing up a list of stocks which he or she would like to own for the rest of the cyclical bull.  Then, load up during the correction.  Buy on weakness.

We should not be overly bullish or bearish.  We should not be stubbornly holding on to any position.  I believe in being a pragmatist.  Good luck!

Related posts:

Be a pragmatist and prosper in 2010.

A new year and a new decade: Strategy for 2010.

---------------------------------------------

"Don't Fight the Tape," Jon Markman Says:

Classic Advice That's "Very Relevant" Today

Posted Apr 26, 2010 03:27pm EDT by Aaron Task

Bullish Sentiment on the Rise:

Is It Time to Get Worried ... or Get on Board?

Posted Apr 27, 2010 08:15am EDT by Aaron Task

Charts in brief: 27 April 10.

STI drops 0.4% to 2,991.68 at closing
Tuesday, 27 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: This counter has formed two dragonfly dojis in a row.  Look at the OBV and we see steady accumulation as steps are formed upwards. The MACD continues to pull away upwards from the signal line.  This is a REIT with strong numbers and technically, it has limited downside as well.  Still one of my favourite high yields.

CapitaMalls Asia: A white hammer! Another reversal signal! Dare I believe it? $2.12 support identified in earlier TAs was hit today.  Closing at $2.15 is actually closing at resistance.  So, if this is indeed a reversal signal, there should be confirmation tomorrow.  Let's see.

Golden Agriculture: Volume expanded on a black candle day as price closed at 60c, the support provided by the 20dMA. If this support breaks, the next support is at 57.5c. The many times tested resistance at 62.5c remains the immediate upside target.

Healthway Medical: The declining 20dMA has made contact with the 50dMA. A dead cross is imminent. Price touched a low of 15.5c, a price the counter has not seen since 3 Mar this year.  That this happened on much higher volume is ominous. MACD is under zero which suggests that the positive momentum is over. This is confirmed by the declining MFI, forming lower highs. The positives? OBV is flat which suggests a lack of accumulation AND distribution.  Stochastics shows a deeply oversold situation. So? I do not expect any crash in price but a gradual drift downwards is probable, in the absence of any positive catalyst.

China Hongxing: Much lower volume.  OBV flattened.  Price unchanged. MFI and Stochastics are still declining and seem ready to move into oversold territory.  For now, it seems that the selling pressure has abated but the technicals are definitely more negative overall. Any upside will meet with resistance at 15c, provided by the 20dMA.

Courage Marine: OBV turned up ever so slightly on a white candle day. It could very well have been a doji since only 2 lots were done at 23c at closing, seemingly in an effort to form a white candle. That price action has detached from the upper limits of the Bollinger band is obvious.  This usually suggests that the uptrend has lost momentum. In case the price does continue moving higher, 23.5c remains the initial resistance, followed by 25.5c and 27c.  Initial support is at 22c.

Suntec REIT achieves DPU of 2.513 cents for 1Q
Tuesday, 27 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

U.S. Finally Starts Dumping Citigroup
-- Smart Move, Tim Geithner!
Posted Apr 26, 2010 03:30pm EDT by Henry Blodget

 
Related post:
Charts in brief: 26 April 10.

Charts in brief: 26 April 10.

Singapore recovery becoming broad-based, entrenched, Lim says
Monday, 26 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

STI gains 0.5% to 3,002.62 at closing
Monday, 26 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

CapitaMalls Asia: Reversal signal from the last session was negated today.  This is becoming a habit for this counter. Price closed at $2.15, a 123.6% Fibo support.  Further weakness would bring in $2.12, $2.10 and $2.07 as supports as suggested by Fibo lines.  MFI and Stochastics are firmly in oversold terrritories. MACD is still moving downwards away from the signal line.  It is my guess that when the MACD starts closing the distance with the signal line, that is when we are closing in on a genuine reversal.

Golden Agriculture: The move up today was unconvincing.  Lower volume formed a hangman. The lack of volatility in recent sessions is obvious as the Bollinger bands begin to converge.  Price will have to move in one direction soon.  OBV shows continuing accumulation while the MFI has been exhibiting higher lows and higher highs.  MACD is above zero but is somewhat sluggish.  The leaning is towards a move upwards and any retracement should find initial support at 60c, followed by 57.5c.

Saizen REIT: Price action is trapped between the 20dMA and the 50dMA at 17c and 16.5c, respectively. Nothing exciting is happening.  OBV is flat.  MFI is declining.  Stochastics has flattened. Longer term uptrend is still intact.

Courage Marine: MFI has emerged from the overbought region. OBV is flat. MACD has made a bearish crossover with the signal line. All signs suggest that we are seeing weaker holders giving up their positions.  Initial support is at the 20dMA, 22c.  For the more cautious, waiting to see if the 20dMA is able to hold up is a good idea as the next support in case the 20dMA gives way is at 20c which is some way to fall.  Of course, it might be a good idea to hedge, as usual.

NOL says container shipping volumes up 32% and average revenue up 12% in Period 3
Monday, 26 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

China Hongxing: It seems that the sell call in my last TA was spot on.  OBV down.  MFI down although not oversold yet.  MACD formed a bearish crossover with signal line and is beneath zero. Volume expanded enormously on a black candle day. The lows of 27 April and 23 June 09 which were at 12c might soon be tested if the selling momentum persists.  Any rebound in the meantime would find a cluster of resistance at 15c, 15.5c and 16c.  Not for the faint hearted.

Related post:
Charts in brief: 23 April 10.

A movie: How to train your dragon (Part 2).

LP commented last night that he found this movie very good.  I agree.  He got to watch the 3D version.  I'm envious.  I was going to watch the 3D version but I had discount coupons and they could not be used for the 3D version.  I am so tempted to go back and watch the 3D version.  Watch the movie a second time? Why not?  I remember some of my female (and male) friends watched "Titanic" four or five times!

'Dragon' wings it back to No. 1 with $15 million
'How to Train Your Dragon' wings it back to No. 1 with $15M; 'Back-up Plan' finishes second
David Germain, AP Movie Writer, On Sunday April 25, 2010, 2:27 pm EDT

LOS ANGELES (AP) -- "How to Train Your Dragon" continues to breathe fire at the box office, while newer releases are mostly blowing smoke.

The DreamWorks Animation adventure took in $15 million to reclaim the No. 1 spot in its fifth weekend of release. "How to Train Your Dragon" opened in first place in late March, then dropped back into the pack. But it has held up strongly and climbed to the top again amid a flurry of so-so new releases.

The tale of a Viking youth and his pet dragon raised its total to $178 million and is on its way to becoming a $200 million hit.

Premiering weakly at No. 2 with $12.3 million was Jennifer Lopez's romantic comedy "The Back-up Plan," released by CBS Films. Another comedy, Steve Carell and Tina Fey's "Date Night" from 20th Century Fox, held up well to finish at No. 3 with $10.6 million, raising its total to $63.5 million.

Among the weekend's other newcomers, the Warner Bros. action flick "The Losers" flopped at No. 4 with $9.6 million. Disney's nature film "Oceans" had a solid opening for a documentary, coming in at No. 8 with $6 million.

"How to Train Your Dragon" nearly regained the No. 1 spot the previous weekend but wound up a close second to Lionsgate's superhero comedy "Kick-Ass." In its second weekend, "Kick-Ass" slumped to No. 5 with $9.5 million, down 52 percent from its debut, lifting its total to $34.9 million.

Read complete article here.

Related post:
A movie: How to train your dragon.

Tea with AK71: Be kind to ourselves.

I just read an article by Wilfred Ling titled "Silent pain from an insurance agent".  You can read the article here. It is a rare peek into the life of a rookie insurance agent and his angst.

Rare indeed is it for a person to find a job he is actually interested in, grows to love and makes a comfortable living out of it. I believe that many muddle through their careers and endure hardships and even disillusionment, just like this insurance agent.

Personally, I have a simple philosophy in life: "Be happy.  As long as you are not hurting anyone while being happy, you're doing fine."  Of course, sometimes, life throws us into a hole and prevents us from being happy.  What do we do? Climb out of the hole and start afresh.

There may be some truly compassionate and altruistic beings in this world but, generally, no one will take care of us. We have to take care of ourselves. Nobody owes us a living.

If others are cruel to us, we have to love ourselves more. Do not hurt ourselves further by staying on and allowing that cruelty to continue unless there is a REALLY good reason to do so.

-------------------------------------------

When the Going Gets Tough, the Tough Get Going:
Maria Bartiromo on the Keys to Success
Posted Apr 23, 2010 05:01pm EDT by Tech Ticker

Revisiting High Yield Portfolio.

On 17 April, I mentioned that I checked Google Analytics to see how my blog was doing and was surprised to find that one of my earliest posts made last Christmas Eve was the most viewed post of my blog.  It was a post that I made about six counters I am vested in and would recommend to anyone who is interested in building up a high yield portfolio.

Out of curiosity rather than necessity, I decided to take a look at the portfolio to see how it has performed since:

Saizen REIT:  This was 15c at the time. The last done price was 17c. Gained 13.3%.  Income distribution to resume in mid 2010.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT (MI-REIT):  This was 20.5c at the time. The last done price was 22c.  Gained 7.3%. XD 12 Feb: 0.1868c which is a yield of 0.91%.

LMIR: This was 51.5c at the time. The last done price was 50c.  Lost 3%. XD 17 Feb: 1.6c which is a yield of 3.1%.

First REIT: This was 80c at the time. The last done price was 87c.  Gained 8.75%. XD 28 Jan: 1.91c which is a yield of 2.39%.

Suntec REIT: This was $1.34 at the time. The last done price was $1.38.  Gained 2.99%.  XD 29 Jan: 0.318c which is a yield of 0.2%.

SPH: This was $3.60 at the time. The last done price was $4.15.  Gained 15.3%.

Assuming that an investor had put in an equal amount of money in each of these six counters on 28 Dec 2009, he would have gained 7.44%.  He would also have an average yield of 1.1%.  Total returns of 8.54%. Not bad for a 4 months period (28 Dec to 23 Apr). Since inflation is expected to be about 3% this year, this portfolio has beaten inflation by now.

The allure of such a portfolio is that very little time is required to maintain it. Buy in at fair prices as indicated by the charts and simply hold until a time when the technicals turn negative. Regular streams of passive income happening in the meantime would make an average person quite happy. Such a portfolio is perfect for anyone who does not have the time, savvy or inclination to trade the market.

It would be interesting to see how this portfolio would do after a 12 months period. I expect that it would look even better with all the income distributions from the REITs and the dividends from SPH streaming in over the next few months.  Let's check in again on 24 Dec 2010, shall we?

Related posts:
Tea with AK71: Top 5 posts.
High yield portfolio.

----------------------------------
I don't usually watch football but this is entertaining:
A match in Argentina produces a bizarre goal, with two players scoring the same overhead kick.

Gimnasia Vs. Boca @ Yahoo! Video

Charts in brief: 23 April 10.

STI gains 0.3% to 2,988.49 at closing
Friday, 23 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

CapitaMalls Asia:  No descend to $2.12. Opened at $2.17, hit a low of $2.14 and closed at $2.17.  A dragonfly doji and, yes, a bullish candlestick. We have a green histogram on the MACD after many red ones.  A buy signal.

The stochastics is turning up from the oversold region while the MFI is deep in oversold territory.  Is this a reversal?  Needs confirmation and immediate resistance could be found at $2.26, a candlestick support that failed on 16 April.  Incidentally, that is also where we would find the descending 20dMA next Monday.

CapitaRetail China Trust posts 7.5% rise in net property to $19m in 1Q
Friday, 23 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Golden Agriculture: A white candle day as we get a buy signal on the MACD.  Stochastics has turned up and the MACD has turned up towards the signal line as well. The Bollinger bands look to be initiating a squeeze.  A retest of 62.5c, a three times tested resistance, looks likely. A longer term negative divergence between price and volume is still intact and like I said in an earlier TA, I might just divest some of my remaining shares at 62.5c, taking some gains off the table.

China Hongxing: My latest purchase is not turning out well, just like an earlier purchase of CapitaMalls Asia. Unlike CapitaMalls Asia, however, my purchase of China Hongxing was not premised on strong fundamentals.  So, I am wondering whether to cut.

Price declined on very much higher volume today to close at 14.5c.  The MACD turned down and seems poised to form a bearish crossover with the signal line.  This negated the buy signal seen yesterday. All the momentum oscillators have swung down.  I might cut loss on Monday.

Courage Marine: The technical picture isn't all that great here either but the OBV is flat.  So, that is at least a positive as it suggests that the weakness is not accompanied by any massive distribution. The MACD has done a bearish crossover with the signal line. If 22.5c gives way, price could go lower.

Saizen REIT: Many must be wondering at the weakness displayed by this counter in recent sessions.  If we take a look at the weekly chart, it becomes quite clear why this has been so.  Saizen REIT has one big hurdle to cross before it can go higher: the 100wMA.  I have mentioned this a few times in some earlier posts.  This descending 100wMA is a powerful negative force, a strong resistance.  It is now at 17.5c.

The 100wMA is keeping a lid on Saizen REIT's attempt to move higher in price in the short run. The rising 20wMA is at 16c.  Price action is probably going to be trapped between the 100wMA and the 20wMA for a while. Any descend to 16c will see increased buying interest.

In the short term, Saizen REIT is trendless but over a longer term, it is in an obvious uptrend.  The weekly OBV shows an obvious trend of accumulation over the last few months too. My strategy for this counter has been and still is a simple one: buy and hold.

First REIT’s 1Q distributable income up 1.3% to $5.2m
Friday, 23 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Maria Bartiromo on Goldman Case: Where's the Fraud?

Posted Apr 22, 2010 04:23pm EDT by Peter Gorenstein


Related posts:
China Hongxing: Prime for a breakout?
Charts in brief: 21 April 10.

Revaluing the RMB.

Revaluing the RMB is a matter of when, not if.  It is widely known that the RMB is undervalued and the Chinese government realises that it has to let the RMB appreciate. This would bring down the cost of living in the country and help put a lid on inflationary pressures.  However, China wants to do so at its own pace. 

The Chinese government is and has always been very concerned about not losing face. A confrontational attitude from outsiders would do more harm than good.

When the RMB is revalued upwards and we can expect this to happen in a series of steps in time, foreign companies with assets in China and with earnings denominated in the RMB will surely benefit. Also, foreigners should find investing in Chinese companies and assets attractive in such a situation as the value of their Chinese investments in their home currencies would likely increase.

China is on track to overtake Japan as the largest economy in Asia and companies which are well positioned to benefit from the growth of the Chinese economy will most likely do better than peers which are not.

CapitaRetail China Trust posts 7.5% rise in net property to $19m in 1Q
Friday, 23 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

-------------------------------------------------------

Yuan Gains May Help China Vault Past Japan to Be No. 2 Economy

April 19, 2010, 1:36 AM EDT


April 19 (Bloomberg) -- China’s anticipated move to let its currency appreciate may help the nation overtake Japan as the world’s second-largest economy, Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. said.

 A 5 percent revaluation against the dollar could see quarterly gross domestic product exceed Japan’s as soon as July- to-September this year, estimated Liu Li-Gang, a Hong Kong-based economist at ANZ. The Chinese economy is likely to vault past Japan by year’s end even if the yuan remains stable, Liu said in an e-mailed interview.

Read complete article here:
Yuan gains may help China vault past Japan to be No. 2 economy.

-------------------------------------------------------
Weak Chinese Currency "Not Just An American Problem,"
FT's Martin Wolf Says.
Posted Apr 22, 2010 07:30am EDT by Peter Gorenstein



Related posts:
New global economic leadership.

Genting SP: Downward drift continues.

STI gains 0.4% to 2,980.69 at closing
Thursday, 22 April 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

I am getting somewhat bored with saying more or less the same things everyday for a while now.  The market has not been very exciting either way.  So, I am giving myself a break from doing a "Charts in brief" post today.  However, Genting SP's price caught my eyes as it touched a low of 85c before closing at 86c today.  I am not vested in this counter but the amount of interest it has generated as the biggest story in Singapore's entertainment and hospitality industries in recent times got me looking on as well.

Technically, it would seem as if a test of the previous low at 83.5c achieved on 4 March is on the cards. The 20d, 50d and 100d MAs are all downtrending.  The MACD is still below zero and has formed a bearish crossover with the signal line.  OBV shows distribution taking place.  MFI shows a lack of buying momentum.  Stochastics has just dipped into oversold territory. 

A bearish picture is obvious, no doubt. However, the selling down lacks strong conviction, in my opinion.  If we look at 18 Feb which was the day the $1.02 support gave way completely, the volume was extremely high.  Volume has been relatively low since that day as price retreated.  I am not saying that price could not go lower but I am saying that the current selling pressure does not seem as great as it was earlier this year.  Having said this, price could go lower and I see 80c as a significant support level.

What if 80c gives way? Well, a look at the weekly chart shows the 100wMA at 75c and this should provide a stronger support.

Related post:
Genting SP: Stale bulls' second chance?