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However, the momentum oscillators are encouraging with MFI forming a higher high and the OBV continuing to rise. The MACD looks like it would do a bullish crossover with the signal line in negative territory. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
My strategy in a downtrend: Sell into strength as price rebounds to test resistance. Buy more when price shows signs of bottoming or when the trend shows signs of reversing. Bearing this in mind, I would queue to sell some at 47.5c, the trendline resistance, tomorrow
9.07 AM at 21c, 1,086 lots bought up.
9.28 AM at 21.5c, 1,185 lots bought up.
11.59 AM at 22c, 1,821 lots bought up.
It is my guess that this REIT has attracted the attention of more funds and big time investors. Something might just be brewing. The OBV is rising strongly, a sign of heavy accumulation. The MFI is rising towards 50%, a sign of positive buying momentum. The MACD has turned up sharply towards the signal line, ready for a bullish crossover in negative territory. Unless the MACD crosses upwards back into positive territory, what we have today could just be a rebound although the very high volume is encouraging.
A further upmove in price should test 23c, a many times tested resistance level, once more. Is this REIT going to move up out of its trading range finally? Only time will tell.
My strategy in a rangebound situation: Sell into strength at resistance and accumulate on weakness at support. I sold the units I collected at 20.5c last week at 21.5c resistance for a quick gain today. I am queueing to sell more at 23c, the top of the trading range, tomorrow. 23c is a long term resistance and would be harder to overcome. If I do manage to sell more at 23c tomorrow, I would be left with 75% of my original position which I would leave to enjoy any breakout if it should take place. Always hedge.
Obviously, as is seen in my blog's header, I am more interested in building a reliable passive income stream than anything else. So, yield is a big thing for me and REITs naturally have a role to play in my strategy.
The meltdown in the global stock markets after the Lehman Brothers crisis shocked me out of complacency and into action, action which saw me beefing up my FA and picking up TA. I refused to be beaten and I was furiously reading and updating my knowledge, reviewing my past mistakes and planning for the future.
REITs are a big part of my portfolio and they gave me much angst during the crisis. I also blogged about the lessons learnt. See: High yields: Successes, failures and the in betweens.
I went on to accumulate more units in REITs which met my selection criteria and currently the top three holdings in my portfolio are REITs. They are Saizen REIT, AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and LMIR. These are all trading at big discounts to their respective NAVs, they have low gearing (or in Saizen REIT's case, lowered gearing) and high yields (or in Saizen REIT's case, potential high yield).
Saizen REIT: 3Q FY2010 results.
I was a unitholder of MI-REIT and I was not very pleased with the recapitalisation package proposed late last year but I recognised that it was the best way to strengthen the REIT as there were no other viable alternatives (even though the CEO of CIT claimed there was). The renamed REIT is stronger in its balance sheet which is the most important thing in any business, in my opinion. Why bother objecting to the recapitalisation plan on the grounds that unitholders' equity would be heavily diluted if the balance sheet remained terminally ill? The renamed REIT has the lowest gearing for industrial property REITs in Singapore now, next to the new kid on the block, CLT. See: AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT (MI-REIT).
LMIR: More units at 10% yield.
Recently, some suggested that I might be overexposed to REITs. In my usual way, I told them that it really does not matter to me if something I am investing in is a REIT or a company as long as it is able to satisfy certain criteria I have of which high yield is one. I rather concentrate my limited resources on a few good REITs than to spread out over tens of REITs and companies for the sake of safety through diversification. I think Warren Buffet got it right to concentrate rather than diversify, in such an instance.
Many bloggers are quite comfortable revealing how much they receive in dividends on a monthly basis. I am somewhat less open but I will say that in the month of May, a big chunk of my dividends came from LMIR. In the month of June, I am expecting a similar amount of income distribution from AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT. Between LMIR and AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, the annualised income distributions I receive could be as much as 4x my monthly salary. It is like getting 4 extra months of bonus every year. You like the idea? I do too.
Things should get better from here as from the month of September, income distribution from Saizen REIT would add to my passive income stream. I might just stop trading the market and sit back, relax and let the passive income stream in. Of course, it remains to be seen if my calculations as to Saizen REIT's potential income distribution would come to pass. See: Replies from AK71: All things Saizen REIT.
I remember watching and very much enjoying a cooking program in my teenage days, "If Yan can cook, so can you!". Now, I say to anyone who wants to create more passive income with limited capital, "If AK71 can do it, so can you!" See: Seven steps to creating passive income from the stock market.
26 May 2010:
Ms. Yvonne Ho Yuk Yee, spouse of Mr. Raymond Wong Kin Jeon, has purchased 300,000 warrants of Saizen REIT (“Warrants”) on the open market. Mr. Wong is therefore also deemed to be interested in the 300,000 Warrants owned by Ms. Yvonne Ho Yuk Yee and held by HSBC as depository agent.
Amount of consideration (excluding brokerage and stamp duties) per share paid or received: 6.5c.
Mr. Raymond Wong Kin Jeon's deemed interest now stands at 19,373,390 Units or 2.033% of current issued share capital.
Given the weakness in the stock market which has made valuations more attractive, I have considered increasing my exposure to Saizen REIT through purchasing more of its warrants. Warrants, however, do not get any income distribution and that is a big negative for me.
Technically, things remain somewhat dicey as it remains to be seen if the unit price of Saizen REIT would be pushed down further by the declining 100wMA or if the support provided by the 50wMA would prevail. If I were not informed by TA, I would have simply gone ahead and bought many more Saizen REIT units as the price retreated. Marrying FA and TA has made me more cautious and a recent purchase made with the retreat in price was a smallish hedge.
Saizen REIT: Recent insider purchases.
Charts in brief: 27 May 10 (Part 2).
Healthway Medical: The MACD is poised for a bullish crossover with the signal line in negative territory. MFI is just above the oversold region while OBV has been in gradual decline. Technically, not very inspiring although the 14c support has been recaptured. This is a long term support provided by the 200dMA which has flattened.
The shorter term downtrend is obvious with both the 20d and 50d MAs declining. Overcoming the 20dMA resistance would probably see 15.5c tested as a significant resistance level. Another chance to sell at resistance? Perhaps. Good luck to all who are still vested.
LMIR: An impressive white candle day. MFI formed a higher low and is rising. OBV is rising. MACD has turned up towards the signal line.Without higher volume on an up day, we have to remain somewhat sceptical of the upmove but an upday is always welcomed. I would now wait to see if the upward movement continues. I expect resistance to any continuing upward movement in price at 47c which was the support level which failed on 19 May. This was rather recent and is still fresh in the minds of market participants.
NOL: Buying momentum has been improving with the MFI rising. OBV has been rising strongly too, suggesting accumulation is robust. A white engulfing candle formed today after a black spinning top yesterday. This confirmed the black spinning top as a reversal signal. Expect further resistance at $1.94 and $1.99.
Saizen REIT: It is quite obvious that there is some weakness in the short term. If the tension in the Korean peninsula should escalate, more nervous investors might sell their investments in Saizen REIT. This, unfortunately, is not something we could have anticipated or controlled. Fundamentally, Saizen REIT is improving over time and its income stream is stable and secure. 15.5c remains a significant support. The next significant support is at 14.5c.
SPH: Things are turning around, it seems. A white candle day with MFI and OBV rising. MACD has gone flat which allows the distance with the signal line to lessen. Immediate support provided by the 200dMA at $3.70 while immediate resistance is at $3.78. Overcoming $3.78 would find further resistance at $3.82 where the fast descending 20dMA seems poised to form a dead cross with the 100dMA in the coming sessions.
Starhub: Price has not been able to recapture the 200dMA support so far. $2.14 remains the immediate resistance. Although MFI has been rising, forming higher lows, OBV has not been as enthusiastic. This suggests that we have positive buying momentum but accumulation is weak. MACD is still declining in negative territory and the downtrend is still very much intact.
A successful break above the 200dMA would find resistance at $2.19, the top of a base formation which lasted a few months. Upside seems limited and going long at this point seems less likely to be rewarding. Any decline in price from here should see initial support at $2.06, the neckline of a reverse head and shoulders formation seen in November 09.
"We could have had an interim bottom of some kind - had an incredibly negative spate with really big volume on the downside," says Danielle Park, president of Venable Park Investment Council and author of Juggling Dynamite. "I think the themes we're concerned about today are like the volcanic cloud over Europe. It'll blow away for a little while and then it'll come back."
Posted May 26, 2010 05:09pm EDT by Aaron Task
Charts in brief: 26 May 2010.
CLSA notes S-REITs offer yield of 7.1% vs yields of 5.3% from telcos, 3.0% from market.
“Unlike before, where S-REITs’ dividends could see further dilution from recapitalization exercises, we would argue that with a lower sector gearing and stable physical asset yields, most REITs would not need to recapitalise further. Hence, earnings and dividends are more insulated from any possible dilution,” says the research house.
Thursday, 27 May 2010
Another up day for the STI on respectable volume. We will lose a trading day tomorrow as it is Vesak Day. We can only cross our fingers and hope that global stock markets continue to strengthen tomorrow so that the STI could have a decent chance of continuing this rebound next Monday.
Courage Marine: This counter strengthened ever so slightly to close at 18.5c. The BDI is up again at 4,209. The longer term support of 17.5c is holding as price formed a white hammer today on thin volume. I like this company's strong fundamentals. The technicals are turning up and I've bought some at 18c as a hedge.
MFI has formed higher lows and emerged from the oversold region. The MACD is turning up towards the signal line. Courage Marine might just be a laggard and might just play catch up if movement in the BDI remains favourable.
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: A rebound is underway. Volume expanded as MFI and BDI rose in tandem. The MACD has turned up towards the signal line since it started its decline ten sessions ago. Expecting strong resistance at 21.5c. Overcoming 21.5c would give this counter a chance at retesting old highs at 23c.
CapitaMalls Asia: Volume expanded today as we have another white candle day. Price touched a high of $2.13 before retreating to $2.11. The trendline resistance has done its job at $2.12.
MFI continues to rise, forming higher lows. OBV is rising too. MACD is rising in negative territory. If the next session sees price closing above $2.12, we could see $2.19 tested as the next resistance. If this does not happen, price is likely to go lower, seeing that it is a symmetrical triangle and the downtrend could continue. I am no longer vested in this counter, having cut my losses in last week's rebound. Good luck to those who are still vested.
FSL Trust: Price has detached itself further from the lower limits of the Bollinger bands. It is quite obvious that OBV has stopped declining, suggesting that distribution activities have come to an end for now. MFI has formed a higher low and is still rising. The MACD looks set to form a bullish crossover with the signal line, although it is still in negative territory. The worst is probably over for this counter. For anyone who has been waiting to go long on this counter, it seems fairly safe to put in a hedge now although further volatility to the downside cannot be discounted.
Golden Agriculture: Reached a high of 52c only to close at 50.5c. From the candlesticks, it would seem that 50.5c is an important resistance level. Successfully overcoming this would find resistance at 52.5c and 54c. Could it retest 56c, where we now find the flat 100dMA?
Charts in brief: 26 May 2010.
Courage Marine: The BDI closed above 4,000 at 4,187. That is up 6.188%. Courage Marine, however, closed lower at 17.5c while Cosco, NOL and STX Pan Ocean rose. This, in my opinion, is an invitation to buy more shares of Courage Marine. 17.5c is a long term support and downside should be limited. Another hedge, perhaps.
SPH: Formed a white hammer and recaptured the 200dMA at the same time. This is a bullish reversal signal. Resistance to be found at $3.82 to $3.84 which are price levels at which are found many times tested candlestick resistance and supports. The 100dMA is also at $3.82 while the descending 20dMA is fast approximating $3.84. As the MACD is still descending in negative territory, this is likely to be just a rebound.
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: MACD is still drawing away downwards from the signal line as the histrogram turned green. MFI is still in oversold territory. 20c has been established as the new support. Any upward movement in price is likely to be capped by the gap resistance at 21.5c which is also where we find all the MAs bunching up.
LMIR: A gravestone doji suggests a failed attempt to move higher in price. OBV turned up but the buying momentum is weak as suggested by a lower high on the MFI. Fundamentals are still good but I would wait and see due to the very weak technicals.
FSL Trust: A smaller white candle forming in the middle of a preceding larger black candle, we have a bullish harami setup. If this setup is valid, price could continue higher to test 50c. The MACD is closing in on the signal line while the MFI is rising sharply. The technicals certainly suggest that the downward momentum is exhausted and a rebound is looking more likely.
CapitaMalls Asia: Nice white candle day. MFI formed a higher low. MACD averted a bearish crossover with the signal line. If price continues to move higher tomorrow, we would have a higher low. Next resistance at $2.12 which was the support that failed on 4 May. This coincides with the trendline resistance. Going higher would find resistance at $2.19, an important support that held up in February. $2.19 is also where we find the descending 50dMA.
Saizen REIT: Another anxious seller. This time at 3pm, 1.7m shares at 15c. FA is about value and TA is about price. So, the market could get quite irrational. The next support, if 15c fails to hold up, is at 14.5c. If the market is willing to sell to me cheap, I am willing to buy. As of now, the 12 months uptrend is still intact.
Charts in brief: 25 May 10.
On 20 May 2010, I said that "to keep a semblance of an uptrend, the next low formed by the STI should be higher than 2,660 points." Today,the STI closed below 2,660. The uptrend is broken and we have a bloodbath.
Golden Agriculture: CPO closed 2.17% lower today at RM2,436. The downtrend is reinforced. Golden Agriculture's share price has weakened as well to close at 48c. Further weakness would test support at 46c, 45.5c and 42c. This counter is still looking for its bottom. Not a good time to go long here.
Courage Marine: BDI is up 2.575% at 3,943 and yet Courage Marine's share price weakened somewhat today, touching a low of 17.5c before closing at 18c. 17.5c has significance as the base price of the double bottom formed over the last few months. Was what we saw today the base of the third bottom? A triple bottom in the making? Volume has been reducing as the price pulled back. BDI has been rising but Courage Marine's share price has been in decline. The signs are too tempting and I bought some shares at 18c. Just a hedge.
SPH: On 23 May, I mentioned "there would probably be a lower entry price to go long on this counter. I would wait and see." Closing below its 200dMA signals more downside to come.
Let us see if the support at $3.62 would hold up if tested. This is where we find the rising 50wMA.
Saizen REIT: The news that North Korea is getting ready for war with South Korea seems to have spooked some investors. One person sold more than 2.3m shares at 4.01pm at 15.5c a share. This caused the 15.5c buy queue to be wiped out. Saizen REIT has not closed at 15.5c since January this year. However, a look at the weekly chart confirms that the longer term uptrend is still intact as price is still being supported by a rising 50wMA. I would wait and see.
STI: Falling through the 200dMA.
Charts in brief: 24 May 2010.
FSL Trust: There is confirmation of the reversal signal. Price closed higher at 45.5c. There is a chance that the counter might move to test 50c but before that, expect resistance at 47.5c and 48.5c. MACD is closing the distance with the signal line. MFI has emerged from the oversold region after forming a higher low. A rebound is underway.
SPH: A white candle formed but it's not a morning star set up. Volume was not impressive either. It was a weak rebound. It remains to be seen if volume will expand meaningfully if price continues to move up. Initial resistance at $3.82 followed by $3.91.
Golden Agriculture: A bearish day as all the gains of the previous session was wiped out today. OBV continues to decline which indicates continuing distribution. Volume continues to decline as the price pulls back. As the downtrend is intact, I would wait for clearer signs of bottoming before adding to long positions.
LMIR: Reversal signal failed. Very bearish. OBV continues to decline, indicating continuing distribution. MACD continues to increase its distance from the signal line, pulling away downwards. This counter is still trying to find a bottom.
If the camp was not so far away from my home in those days, I might not have gone to the movies so often. I would have preferred to go home in the evenings, I guess. Since we had to go back to camp by 11.59pm at night, it just didn't make sense for me to make the long commute both ways.
I remember one evening, I went to the cinema and found that I had watched every single movie there was to watch at the time. Yes, even those which I didn't think I would enjoy, I'd watched. That's how good a customer I was for Golden Village then. During that time, I got used to watching movies on my own and actually enjoyed it.
I don't go to the movies as often nowadays. If I do go to the movies, I would go with friends or family. However, I recently watched a movie alone. That was IP MAN 2. Watching a movie alone again brought back memories of my NS days. I might watch Shrek 3 alone too.
Just like LMIR, SPH spots a bullish reversal signal. In this case, it is a doji. Technically, it is less bullish than a white hammer but it might work.
The declining 20dMA will very likely form a dead cross with the 50dMA soon. The 50dMA should cap any rebound in price at $3.91. A lower high was formed earlier this month at $3.95 and this would be the next resistance level in case the 50dMA resistance is taken out.
MFI has been forming lower highs and dipped into oversold territory recently. OBV has been in decline. The MACD is still declining in negative territory. The bearish picture is obvious. There would probably be a lower entry price to go long on this counter. I would wait and see.
SPH: Another black candle day.
LMIR is one of my favourite REITs. It has high yield, low gearing and a big discount to NAV. However, its price has been in an obvious downtrend. The downtrend recently worsened.
FA is about value and TA is about price. Price wise, this counter might see more downside. Being pragmatic, I would add to my position when the next base is formed or when price rebounds and forms a higher low.
Looking at the daily chart, we see that on Friday, a white hammer was formed. This is a nice bullish reversal signal. Drawing downtrend lines, we see that the steeper downtrend line coincides more or less with the declining 20dMA which formed a dead cross with the 200dMA in the last session. This would be at 48c in the next session. A rebound would probably find initial resistance at 48c.
I would wait to see if a lower high is formed before deciding whether to add to my position. The MACD is still pulling away downwards from the signal line and the OBV is in decline. MFI is in the oversold region and this also supports the idea of a near term rebound but it has been forming lower highs. So, if another lower high is formed during the rebound, the bearish picture is reinforced.
LMIR: 1Q 2010 results.
17 May 2010:
Ms. Yvonne Ho Yuk Yee, spouse of Mr. Raymond Wong Kin Jeon, has purchased 186,000 Units on the open market. Mr. Wong is therefore also deemed to be interested in the 186,000 Units owned by Ms. Yvonne Ho Yuk Yee and held by HSBC as depository agent.
Amount of consideration (excluding brokerage and stamp duties) per share paid or received: 16.5c.
19 May 2010:
Ms. Yvonne Ho Yuk Yee, spouse of Mr. Raymond Wong Kin Jeon, has purchased 300,000 Units on the open market. Mr. Wong is therefore also deemed to be interested in the 300,000 Units owned by Ms. Yvonne Ho Yuk Yee and held by HSBC as depository agent.
Amount of consideration (excluding brokerage and stamp duties) per share paid or received: 16.5c.
Mr. Raymond Wong Kin Jeon's deemed interest now stands at 19,073,390 Units or 2.001% of current issued share capital. See announcements here.
This is one thing which helps to convince me that Saizen REIT's fundamentals are sound. Logically, if it is a basket case, insiders would not be buying.
Some people tell me that I should have sold my Saizen REIT units at 17.5c and buy again when it is lower to make more money. Hindsight is beautiful, isn't it? Well, I could have but my investment in Saizen REIT is not for trading. Even at 17.5c, I consider it a bargain. Why would I sell? Of course, this is informed by FA.
As always, how I treat each investment depends on my motivation for being invested in the first place as well as the prevailing circumstances. The reasons for investing in Saizen REIT are still valid. Circumstances have not soured in the present. If anything, the REIT's fundamentals have improved and are likely to improve further. So, I am staying vested.
Saizen REIT: 3Q FY2010 results.
The rising 50wMA is at 15.3c and should be at 15.5c next week. That there is buying interest in this REIT is seen in the higher high formed in the MFI and the upmove in the OBV. The declining 100wMA should be at 16.5c next week.
Price could remain trapped between the support provided by the 50wMA and the resistance provided by the 100wMA in the near future without affecting the uptrend.
The Bollinger bands are narrowing. A couple of golden crosses seem to be in the works. An impending positive move in price is not an unreasonable expectation and is consistent with the REIT's improving fundamentals. Today, I bought more at 16c.
However, the technicals suggest further weakness. The MACD has plunged further into negative territory as price formed a gravestone doji. MFI has dipped into the oversold region after forming lower highs. OBV is declining slightly. Further weakness could see 19.5c tested, the low in Dec 09.
A quick look at the weekly chart shows a range from 20c to 23c as suggested by the Bollinger bands. So, although further weakness cannot be discounted, the downside seems limited.
For a stock which is clearly in a downtrend, sell into strength at resistance. It might be a lower high but it is still a high. We don't want to sell at a low. Then, wait patiently for it to form a base or to rebound and form a higher low. It would be safer to take up a long position then.
Not all stocks are in a downtrend. For stocks of businesses with strong fundamentals with their uptrends still intact, buying at supports is still the way to go. Look to the technicals for possible negative divergence as a warning sign. Certain stocks might be rangebound and if the businesses have strong fundamentals, buying at the support of the trading range is what I would do.
Generally, our motivations for being in the stock market would determine the strategy that we adopt. For me, I am primarily in the stock market to secure a passive income stream. So, I would accumulate stocks with strong fundamentals which provide high yields. Examples are AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, LMIR, Saizen REIT and SPH.
I also invest in growth stocks but these are generally not known for big dividend payouts and I invest in these with a view to trade. Examples are Golden Agriculure and Healthway Medical. Recently, I tried my hands at CapitaMalls Asia and lost some money, if you remember.
Do I think we are having a meltdown? Are we going into another recession or even a depression? I don't think so. Informed by Jim Rogers and Marc Faber, I have talked about the next crisis being a currency crisis and we are seeing the precursors of that crisis. For now, I believe that the stock market will be going higher in time. Fiat currencies are not going to do a disappearing act. Governments around the world will not allow a collapse. So, in crises, we find opportunities.
There would be some people who want to sell away all their shares now, fearing a meltdown, keep their cash and wait. There would also be those who are keeping all their shares, believing them to be good investments, and would be buying more shares at lower prices to average down. In both instances, I would say, look to the technicals as we want to avoid selling at the lows or buying at resistance. We should not be afraid but we should stay cautious. Good luck to us all.
What are investors to do in downtrend?
A correction? An opportunity.
My last post on the STI scared quite a few people, I imagine. Well, the STI has closed below the 200dMA on relatively high volume. Failing to recapture the 200dMA support is bearish, of course.
The MACD continues to pull away downwards from the signal line, increasing the distance with the signal line when it looked as if it was just closing the distance in the last few sessions. The sell signal in the last session was confirmed.
The MFI continues forming lower highs and being some distance from oversold, it could continue moving downwards with little trouble. The OBV is steadily declining. The 20dMA seems set to form a dead cross with the 100dMA in due course.
The low achieved today at 2,735 just touched the uptrend line before bouncing to close somewhat higher at 2,753. Will the trendline support hold up tomorrow?
Looking at the weekly chart, we find the next support provided by the 50wMA at 2,720 points. The previous low was at 2,660 points. To keep a semblance of an uptrend, the next low formed by the STI should be higher than 2,660 points. Well, there is one day left to the week. How the STI behaves tomorrow could very well determine the tone of the market next week.
Incidentally, the declining 100wMA is no longer at 2,425 points. It is now at 2,400 points. A declining MA is not a very strong support. That's for sure.
STI at 2425 points?
I sold half of my remaining position at 55.5c resistance on 10 May and hoped that the upward momentum could be sustained to hit 58c where I would sell my remaining shares but that did not happen.
Today, its price broke the 200dMA briefly to touch a low of 50.5c but closed at 52c. This might be due to a little bounce in CPO's price today to close at RM2,470, up RM35 or 1.44%. Clearly, the downtrends for both Golden Agriculture and CPO are intact.
If the price closes below the 200dMA, the near term supports are at 48c and 46c as suggested by the candlesticks.
Golden Agriculture: An inverted cross.
MFI is in oversold territory. OBV is still declining. However, the price decline in the last 13 sessions show clearly a pattern of low volume pullback. The fundamentals notwithstanding, I sense an opportunity. I would be very tempted to buy some at the 138.2% Fibo line which approximates 41.5c. If the price should go as low as the 150% Fibo line which approximates 39c, I would probably get some.
FSL Trust: A sinking ship?