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Noble: Downtrend.

Wednesday, August 4, 2010

Noble has been in a downtrend since the middle of March. This downtrend is intact.  With MFI forming lower highs, which suggests a lowering demand, and OBV dipping gradually, suggesting consistent distribution, the technical picture is rather negative.  The MACD is in negative territory and has just completed a bearish crossover with the signal line. Momentum is negative and it is not improving.




The counter is nowhere near oversold and price could sink lower if there is no catalyst strong enough to turn market sentiments positive. Price is currently resting on immediate support at  $1.66.  Immediate resistance is at $1.70 as provided by the 20dMA and candlestick resistance. 

CapitaMalls Asia: Low volume sell down.

Price reached a low of $2.09 before closing at $2.11 which is the top of a mini double bottom formation. If $2.11 breaks, we could see a retest of the base of the double bottom at $2.02.  How likely is this?




Although price has moved down, volume has likewise reduced.  A low volume pull back. Good news. Second opinion? The OBV has turned down but it did not plunge which means no massive distributrion. Again, good news.

However, chart watchers would see the sell signal on the MACD histogram.  If this is confirmed in the next session, price is more likely than not going to move lower.

Blackstone is buying real estate in Japan.

I came across an article published by Bloomberg on 22 July, 2010, that Blackstone may buy Morgan Stanley's real estate assets in Japan.  Here are some salient points:

Prices for Tokyo office buildings have fallen as much as 50 percent from their 2007 peak, according to an estimate by CB Richard Ellis Group Inc.’s Japan subsidiary. Blackstone’s first purchase in the country, after opening a Tokyo operation three years ago, may suggest prices are set to climb, said Takashi Ishizawa, a real estate analyst at Mizuho Securities Co.


“The news confirms my view that property prices in Japan have reached bottom,” Ishizawa said in a telephone interview in Tokyo. “Now is the time to invest.”

Japan’s nationwide average land prices dropped 8 percent in 2009 from a year ago, the second straight annual decline, the National Tax Agency said in a report earlier this month.

The drop has attracted other buyers. Acquisitions by the country’s 38 publicly traded real estate investment trusts more than doubled in the first quarter to 229 billion yen from the same period last year, according to IB Research and Consulting Inc., a Tokyo-based research firm.

Japan’s listed real estate investment trusts have raised 195.5 billion yen in the first six months of this year, the highest since 2008, as they look to expand their portfolios, according to Mizuho Securities Co.

Read full article here.

Related post:

Starhub: Testing support.

Tuesday, August 3, 2010

Technically, this counter looks a bit weak. $2.38 has been established as a strong resistance while $2.30 is a many times tested support. Volume was rather high today as price started at $2.38 and travelled all the way down to test the support at $2.30 before closing just 1c higher at $2.31.  Could the rising 50d and 100d MAs lend support to $2.30 or would the support break?




The declining MFI suggests that demand has weakened while the declining MACD suggests that the shorter term MA is losing altitude.  All in, a rather ominous picture for the bulls. Support at $2.30 is critical. If this support level holds as momentum oscillators decline, that is a sign of strength. If it were to break, $2.22 would be the immediate downside target.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: New SS.

There is a new substantial shareholder for this REIT: Dragon Pacific Assets Limited.

No. of Shares held before the change: 38,985,000

No. of Shares which are subject of this notice: 66,693,000

No. of Shares held after the change: 105,678,000
As a percentage of issued share capital: 7.21%

Reason given:  Acquisition for investment purposes.

Many are probably wondering who are the sellers as this is probably a married deal. The volume is really very high.  Fundamentally, more substantial shareholders with a longer term investment horizon is good for the REIT. They would give a stronger floor to the unit price and, therefore, a firmer platform for possible future price appreciation.




Technically, the big sell down today at 22.5c sent the MFI crashing into the oversold region. The MFI has also formed a lower high.  What we see now is a negative divergence with price which has moved up to test the long term resistance of 23c in recent sessions.  23c remains a formidable resistance.

OBV dropped a notch and the MACD seems ready to form a bearish crossover with the signal line.  With XD date approaching in another 3 days, a pull back in the unit price of this REIT is probable.  In such an instance, expect initial support at 22c and a stronger support at 21.5c, the midpoint of the trading range (20c to 23c).  Good luck to fellow unitholders.

CapitaMalls Asia: Sell on news?

The market seems unimpressed with CapitaMalls Asia's results.  Price tried moving higher, touched a high of $2.18 before declining to close unchanged at $2.16. The MACD is back in positive territory which suggests that we are once again seeing positive momentum in price movement.




Although the rising MFI suggests a strong demand, the OBV has turned flat in the last two sessions which suggests that neither accumulators nor distributors have the upper hand. Therefore, the lower volumes in the last two sessions as the price tried to move higher should be taken as a strong cautionary note.

Having said all these, it is worthwhile noting that price has closed above the 100dMA again even though it's a black candle day.  If the 100dMA is confirmed as the new support, price could move higher.

Genting SP: Bearish engulfing candle.

Genting SP spots a bearish engulfing candle today.  This is a big black candle that envelopes the entire candle of the previous day.  This is extremely bearish as it indicates that price started the day higher but met with resistance and turned down to close lower than the previous day's low. That this was accompanied by high volume makes it more ominous. The bearish situation is backed up by a sell signal on the MACD histogram and the MACD has turned down towards the signal line.




However, even with the massive sell down today, the uptrend is still intact.  Look at the support line I labelled "uptrend support 2".  This uptrend approximates the position of the 20dMA.  Could price bounce off this support in the next session or continue to decline to test the many times tested resistance turned support at $1.20?  Although the MFI has turned down, the uptrend is intact.  OBV has turned down which indicates some distribution took place today.


Golden Agriculture: Sell down,

In my post on Golden Agriculture yesterday, I said that "Although volume expanded today, a case could be made that we are seeing a negative divergence with price.  Just keep this thought handy."

Golden Agriculture started the day at 60c to hit a high of 62c before retreating to close at 58.5c on high volume.  This is where we find the downtrend resistance which was overcome yesterday.




OBV has turned down which confirms that distribution is taking place.  However, the MFI is now higher than the previous high.  This hints that demand continues to be strong and there are buyers waiting to collect at lower prices.

Could 58.5c now serve as support?  It could but we need confirmation.  A stronger support is at 55.5c, as provided by the 100dMA.

Related post:
Golden Agriculture: Downtrend broken.

China Hongxing: Resistance broken.

Monday, August 2, 2010

Against the odds, China Hongxing broke the resistance provided by the 200dMA at 16c.  It touched a high of 17c before closing at 16.5c.




The sell signal on the MACD spotted in the last session is now negated as volume expanded today with the move up in price. MFI and RSI rose and stayed in the overbought region.  OBV rose higher which suggests increased accumulation. 




I look at the weekly chart for a glimpse of the longer term picture. The MFI, RSI and OBV are all rising.  MFI and RSI are not overbought yet. The MACD is still rising but in negative territory and its distance from the signal line is increasing. 

The bullish crossover with the signal line was completed five weeks ago.  Being in negative territory, this could just be a rebound but a strong one.  The increasing distance from the signal line is bullish but as the distance widens, bulls should turn cautious as the last four weeks have seen some big moves upwards.

The descending 100wMA is at 17.5c in the next session and this could be a formidable resistance.


Hyflux Water Trust: Privatisation.


Trading of units in Hyflux Water Trust (HWT) was halted today as a proposed voluntary delisting was announced. The exit offer price is 78c per unit in cash.  This represents a premium of almost 14% over the last traded price of 68.5c.  Read announcement here.

I still have 5% of my original investment in HWT left, having divested the rest in stages for capital gains.  I planned to keep this remaining investment as a no brainer passive income earner for the longer term as I bought these at 30c early last year and the DPU is about 5c per annum, giving me a yield of about 17%.  This is not to be, it seems.  Looking on the bright side, I will be getting back some money and booking a gain.

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Healthway Medical: Underlying strength.

The sell signal on the MACD in the last session was negated today. In fact, the MACD seems poised to do a bullish crossover with the signal line in positive territory.

The rising MFI shows unabating demand. OBV shows gradual accumulation. 18.5c has been established as immediate support.






The rising 50dMA seems to be on course to hit 18.5c soon.  Could this push the price of Healthway Medical's shares up at the same time?

Volume has been declining as price settled into a tight range of 18.5c to 19.5c. There were two sessions in which volume spiked but price was unable to break past 19.5c.  This shows that there are still sellers out there.  However, with the OBV gradually higher, the sellers might be thinning as more accumulate shares in the company.

Technically, this counter is looking interesting.  Could we see a breakout soon? In case of a breakout, we could see a retest of 21c, the high of 16 Jun.

Golden Agriculture: Downtrend broken.

With the white candle formed today, closing at 60c, the downtrend which started on 11 January is effectively broken.




The buy signal on the MACD histogram spotted in the last session has been confirmed. Momentum oscillators are still rising, forming higher lows which is good news for bulls. Although volume expanded today, a case could be made that we are seeing a negative divergence with price.  Just keep this thought handy.

If the positive momentum keeps up, we could see the next resistance at 62.5c tested.  Immediate support is provided by the flat 100dMA at 55.5c. Uptrend support coincides with the rising 200dMA.

Tea with AK71: Bought a new car!

Sunday, August 1, 2010

On 2 May, I blogged about how expensive it is to buy a new car now. I mentioned that I paid only $80k for my current car, a Mazda 6, almost five years ago and that for the same price I could only get a Mazda 2 hatchback, not even a Mazda 3, now! I said I would continue driving my fully paid Mazda 6 for another few years.

Yesterday, I blogged about my Mazda 6 being pillarised in a carpark and how I toyed with the idea of getting a new car. I decided to just keep driving my pillarised Mazda 6 after some thought. However, I still went online and looked at what's new at Mazda Motors just for fun. I was kind of attracted to the new Mazda 2 sedan which was just launched recently. Why not the hatchback? Cars, for me, must have a boot. 




The boot allows me to hide my car washing stuff and it also acts as an extra large bumper if my car were hit in the back by some reckless driver. Also, people cannot see what I have in the boot and would not be tempted to break into my car. Might be a false sense of security but it gives me a peace of mind.

As I had nothing much to do today, I went down to Mazda's showroom to take a look at the Mazda 2 Sedan. Mazda is having a 90th Anniversary promotion and I was given a $12,000 discount. So, final price is $71k for a new Mazda 2 Sedan with leather seats and solar film. They also offered me $29k for my old Mazda 6, accepting all the dents and scratches.

I made phonecalls to my parents to get their opinions before test driving the car. As my previous cars ranged from 1.6 litres to 2.2 litres in capacity, my major worry about the Mazda 2 was the possible lack of power, being a 1.5 litres. Driving the car, I was impressed by how such a small engine could deliver so much punch. I am not an engineer and I won't go into details like DOHC and stuff. The information is available online, I'm sure. Anyway, as you have probably guessed from the title of this post, I bought it.  Decision made within two hours or so.




A smaller car with a more fuel efficient engine is environmentally friendlier and is easier on the pocket as well.  I will save on petrol, road tax and maintenance.  The car will get a 3 years/100,000km warranty which is good. I have replaced quite a few parts under warranty for my previous cars before. I think it will not be any different with this car. Did I mention I was given $300 servicing vouchers as well?

The only downside is, of course, the much smaller size and this will take some getting used to.  Then again, most of the time, I am just driving myself around.  The backseat is usually for my briefcase, my gym bag and my Crumpler. So, this will be my first practical car for city driving.

I had hoped to drive my Mazda 6 for more than 5 years.  It seems that is not to be. I hope to drive this new car for more than 5 years. Wish me luck.

Related posts:
Tea with AK71: Buying car now?
Tea with AK71: Pillarised.

SPH: A new high.

SPH hit a new high of $4.20 early in the morning of the last session and closed at $4.13, up three cents from the previous session.  Volume almost quadrupled from the previous session and this has corrected the negative divergence I have blogged about recently.




The MACD is once again pulling away upwards from the signal line in positive territory.  The MFI is rising after forming a higher low, suggesting that demand is healthy.  OBV turned sharply upwards, indicating ongoing accumulation.

Immediate support is resistance turned support at $4.08. Immediate resistance is at $4.20, the new high.

Related post:
SPH: Rising on low volume.

Tea with AK71: Pillarised.

Saturday, July 31, 2010

What is "pillarised"? I would be surprised if such a word existed. It is just a word that happened to pop into my head as my car had a close encounter with a pillar in the carpark this afternoon in Burlington Square.  That building has to have one of the most badly designed carparks in Singapore! One particular turn near the exit ramp was very tight.  Anyway, that's where my car's passenger door got "pillarised".  Sob.

I usually drive well and I have survived even the most claustrophobic of HDB carparks.  So, this accident was a bit of a shock for me.  Talking to a friend when I reached home, he suggested that my car is too big. Too big? It's a Mazda 6! Imagine if I were driving a Mazda CX-7! Although my car is turning five in less than two months, mechanically, it is still in good condition. Change my car? I admit that it is a tempting thought but it is probably not financially prudent to do so.

However, a customer recently told me that the COE price is probably going to increase month after month because less vehicles are being scrapped.  This would mean that prices of cars would keep climbing. He said if anyone wants to buy a new car, it is now! Where is my chequebook?!

Then, talking to my mom after the "pillarising" experience, she suggested that I wait a couple of days and if I really want to get a new car, do it.  My mom is basically being very rational and hinting to me not to be impulsive, I'm sure. Cool down and think clearly. I just damaged my car. Do I want to damage my chequeing account too?

I took a shower and felt a bit better.  I went downstairs, washed my car and decided that I could live with the damage for another few years. Yes, you guessed it.  I don't think I will fix the dent and scratches although my dad might insist that I do.  Will see.

Usually, I could manage very tight turns but there were too many things on my mind today and I was kind of distracted.  Like I commented in one of my posts lately, work has been stressful. So, what is it about work that is stressful? Workload stress, I can handle but stress due to certain transgressions by people, I don't handle very well. It is the latter that has been bothering me in the last few days. People trying to take advantage of people and people not playing by the rules.


money love Pictures, Images and Photos

We could probably rationalise it in so many ways but it almost always boils down to money.  Radix malorum est cupiditas.  The love of money is the root of all evil.  How true.  Many will do so many things just for money, including creating trouble for other people.  It really gets to me.  Well, they don't say it is a dog eat dog world for no reason, right? Right.

Unfortunately, some of us have the thankless task of policing people. It is worse when we have a conscience! The task is not so distasteful if we were able to punish the transgressors, ensuring they would not do the same things again. It is when we are not able to do anything more than issuing warnings that it gets irksome. Imagine a toothless dog guarding a home. You get the idea.

If we keep doing the same things the same way, things will never change. So, what do we do? Make plans to change the way things are done or make plans to do different things. I know we might not have a choice sometimes but if we have a choice, we should remember that we have only one life to live and we owe it to ourselves to live it well.

LMIR: Selling pressure.

LMIR touched a low of 47.5c before closing at 48.5c, the immediate support identified previously.  That this support was breached on high volume is somewhat ominous for the counter. Remember that this support is also where we find the 200dMA.  Closing below this level would indicate a likely change in the longer term trend of the counter.




MFI has formed a lower high, suggesting decreased demand.  OBV shows a clear trend of distribution since accumulation peaked on 27 July.  MACD seems set to do a bearish crossover with the signal line as a red histogram appeared. Could we see more selling down? The possibility exists.

It would seem that I am not the only person disappointed with LMIR's latest set of numbers.

Related post:
LMIR: DPU reduced 20%.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Firm.

Friday, July 30, 2010

Lots of selling down today at 22.5c on what is a high volume day. Of the 4.107m units which changed hands, 2.219m were sold down at 22.5c. The selling down caused the MFI to break its recent uptrend support. The message? Demand has weakened.  However, the OBV is flat which suggests that even though demand has weakened, any selling is well absorbed and there is no visible distribution.




The MAs are all rising but we have a sell signal on the MACD histogram. So, prudence dictates against buying more units in the current time frame at the current price. The downside risk is quite real especially once the counter goes XD.  Of course, volume could suddenly expand if a pension fund or some such investor decides to buy up in the next session at 23c but that's pure speculation and falls in the realm of HA, not TA.

Related post:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Steady performance.

Tea with AK71: Singapore is going strong.

Have you noticed how packed the malls are these days?  The fastfood joints are packing in the crowd even on weeknights.  Even the Econ Minimart near my place is crowded in the evenings.  What's happening? 

Singapore's economy is powering ahead and would probably take the number one spot as the country with the highest growth rate this year.  It is all very impressive but one wonders how much longer this level of growth could continue for.

The feel good factor has affected everyone for sure and two articles in Yahoo! Singapore, placed side by side, show consumer confidence alive and kicking here.

Serangoon condo sells like hotcakes
By Angela Lim – July 29th, 2010

Units at The Scala, in five residential towers, are between 472 and 2,142 sg ft each and range from one to four-bedroom apartments. They were sold at a whopping average price of S$1,150 per sq ft (psf), setting a new benchmark price for the area.

Demand for the remaining 300 units of the 99-year leasehold project near Lorong Chuan MRT station was so strong that organisers had to resort to balloting to decide who entered the showflats first.

Read article here.


Mad rush for Apple’s iPhone 4
By Ewen Boey – July 30th, 2010

SingTel’s iPhone 4s were available at their store at Marina Bay Sands, while M1 and StarHub had their launches at Paragon and Plaza Singapura respectively.

The M1 queue at Paragon was by far the longest as it snaked around the basement of the shopping mall, while customers at Starhub’s Plaza Singapura had to register first before joining the queue.

Read article here.

Should we start thinking like a contrarian? There is a saying in Chinese which translates to say "in times of peace, think of the potential pitfalls". Enjoy the good times but stay cautious.

Genting SP: Inverted white hammer.

Thursday, July 29, 2010

Price touched a high of $1.29 before closing at $1.27, forming an inverted white hammer in the process.  This suggests some weakness: the upmove lacks conviction.  The unimpressive volume confirms this observation.




Although the OBV is still rising, suggesting continuing accumulation, there is some profit taking going on and a stalling demand.  This stall in demand is confirmed by a flat MFI which is bordering on overbought.

Many are expecting Genting SP to report a set of sterling numbers but till then, could we see price softening somewhat to retest support provided by the rising 20dMA? There is a chance and that might be an opportunity for any bulls on Genting SP to accumulate.


SPH: Rising on low volume.

Price broke out of the many times tested resistance of $4.08 today to close at $4.10.  However, the relatively low volume suggests that the price rose due to a lack of sellers and not because of an abundance of buyers.  So, it throws up the question of sustainability.




The fact that there is continuing accumulation is not in doubt.  The rising OBV confirms this.  The MFI has recaptured its uptrend support, it would seem, and this suggests a return of demand.

Lacklustre volume not withstanding, price could possibly rise further to retest $4.17 without a significant expansion in volume if selling pressure remains absent. Such a rise in price would, however, be very fragile.

NOL: Breakout.

NOL rose to close at its high of the day at $2.08 on significantly higher volume.  With this, it has broken out of the symmetrical triangle observed some time back.  OBV has been somewhat choppy but rising further would indicate increased accumulation.  MFI has formed an uptrend recently and this suggests increased demand. 




The next resistance is at $2.13, the high of 21 Jun which also did a gap fill then. This is a price which market participants are likely to remember. Taking this out convincingly would give an intial target of $2.28 as suggested by the 138.2% Fibo line.


CapitaMalls Asia: Shopping spree planned.

"CapitaMalls Asia (CMAL.SI) could spend as much as S$3 billion to develop or buy shopping malls in Singapore, Malaysia and China, by using some borrowings on top of the S$1 billion cash that it has, partly from the proceeds of listing CapitaMalls Malaysia Trusts (CAMA.KL), the local press reported, quoting CapitaMalls' chief executive." Thursday, 29 July 2010, The Edge Singapore.




 
This bit of news sent the share price of CapitaMalls Asia up today to close at $2.10 which is the resistance provided by the flat 50dMA.  The MACD has risen above the signal line in negative territory. MFI shows a sustained demand.  OBV shows accumulation.  Indeed, volume expanded more than three times over the previous session and is the highest since 12 Feb 2010. If the momentum continues, we could see price rising to retest the downtrend resistance which coincides with the declining 100dMA at about $2.16.

China Hongxing: Going higher?

China Hongxing breached 16c resistance and touched 16.5c briefly.  Closing at 16c, it is still resisted by the declining 200dMA.  This is a long term MA and unless volume expands significantly with any upmove, a breakout from the 200dMA is unlikely to be successful.




If we look at the volume, it has been declining as price tried to move higher in the last few sessions. Although not significantly so, it is nonetheless a negative divergence and calls for caution.

OBV is still rising strongly which means accumulation is still ongoing.  MFI and RSI have both risen high into overbought territories. Momentum is still positive but the risk of a pull back is definitely higher now.

Taking some profits off the table would seem like a prudent thing to do and if price goes parabolic in the next session, I would divest more as parabolas are usually unsustainable.

Related post:
China Hongxing: Target hit.

LMIR: DPU reduced 20%.

LMIR announced a DPU of 1.04c payable on 27 August 2010.  This is lower than the 1.2c paid in the last quarter. This is due to a higher realised loss on the foreign exchange forward contract. This reduced the funds available for distribution from S$13.9m in 2Q2009 to S$11.2m in 2Q2010.  So, although the net property income increased 17.1% year on year, DPU has reduced 20% year on year from 1.3c to 1.04c! 

I was under the impression that a foreign exchange forward contract is a hedge which would smooth out any currency fluctuations to help deliver a steady level of funds available for distribution, everything else remaining constant.  It seems that I was mistaken.

The issue that bothers me now is that the management has no intention of reviewing its practice, it seems: "Despite the realised loss in the current quarter, the Trust has entered into the foreign exchange forward contracts as a prudent measure to mitigate its exposure to fluctuations of income denominated in the IDR". See press release here.

Therefore, I would hold off plans to increase exposure to LMIR on possible future price weakness.



Technically, LMIR has been on a uptrend since hitting a low of 42c on 25 May. A combination of its uptrend support and the candlestick supports shows immediate support to be at 48.5c in the next session.


AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Steady performance.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT has announced a DPU of 0.5376c payable on 16 Sep 2010. This is the same amount paid out in the last quarter and within my expectations since there has not been any significant material changes which would impact earnings. This represents an annual DPU of 2.1504c and an annualised yield of 9.35% based on the last traded price of 23c.



Technically, price is still range bound and capped by the long term resistance of 23c. MFI has turned down and it remains to be seen if it could bounce off its support. 22.5c is now the immediate support.


What could go wrong?

“The market is overbought and there is a renewed sense of complacency in the marketplace that I think could get shattered pretty quickly,” says the chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff in Toronto.
Posted Jul 28, 2010 11:18am EDT by Peter Gorenstein,Tech Ticker.



"In a country like North Korea, with conventional artillery lined up to literally obliterate Seoul within hours and with direct nuclear capacity and ballistic missile capacity, this is an unprecedented threat from a rogue state," Bremmer says. "Clearly there is a drumbeat in North Korea that they are trying to use to build patriotism and support for their own regime. The question is: how far do they have to go?"

Bremmer goes on to say that the markets have largely ignored South Korea's precarious situation. They should pay attention because Kim Jong-il wields enormous power and no one knows what he is capable of, including his presumed benefactors in China.

"So if this continues to escalate, and so far all indications are that it will, it is going to start creating an awful lot of concern on the ground with some economies that really matter to the world," he says.
Posted Jul 28, 2010 08:00am EDT by Keegan Bales, Tech Ticker.


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