Feeling the stress in Singapore?

"Singapore, one of the world's richest cities, has a land area of just 710 square kilometres (274 square miles) but until recent years, it had avoided the congested feeling of places like Hong Kong and Tokyo.

"Widely acclaimed as one of the world's most "liveable" cities, Singapore is now experiencing urban growth woes as it moves to expand its population to 6.5 million in 20 years, up 30 percent from the current level of five million."

Some facts:

1.  Tourist arrivals surpassed the one million mark in a single month for the first time in July 2010.

2.  Despite increased train frequency during peak demand periods, trains were more cramped than before.

3.  As of July, there were 936,311 vehicles plying the roads of Singapore, with cars accounting for 61.5 percent of the total, compared to 755,000 vehicles just five years ago.

4.  Demand for homes in Singapore's public housing blocks, where 80 percent of the population reside, is also straining supply. Foreigners who enjoy permanent residency and are eligible to purchase public housing totalled 533,000 in 2009, a 37.8 percent increase from 2005.

Read the full article here.
Singapore shows signs of urban stress.
AFP, Wednesday, 25 August 2010.

Raffles Education: Downtrend in force.

Raffles Education's downtrend continues. Distressed shareholders must be wondering if there is any end in sight. 29.5c is where we find the merged 20d and 50d MAs. This level was previously a support and is now resistance. Volume expanded as price drew to a close at 27.5c in the last session.

The MACD is declining in negative territory.  Momentum is clearly negative. After enjoying a brief period of accumulation from 26 July, distribution activity which started on 11 August has wiped out all gains in the OBV by the end of the last session.  Traders who were nimble enough to offload at 31c before the distribution activity took hold would have made a gain assuming they bought in at 29.5c.

Raffles Education's downtrend is in force and it would take a brave punter to try and make money trading this counter. Selling on rebounds is the strategy to adopt here, at least until there are clearer longer term reversal signals.

Related post:
Charts in brief: 16 Jul 10 (Part 3).

Genting SP: Twin spinning tops.

No matter how bullish analysts might still be about Genting SP, I believe that taking some profit off the table for anyone who is still vested is the prudent thing to do.  Yes, the MFI is still uptrending and OBV shows accumulation.  However, take note that the RSI is in overbought territory and has formed a lower high.  This suggests that the buying momentum is weakening and being overbought, it has to be corrected in time.

The MACD is still rising above the signal line in positive territory but notice how the distance between the two lines is narrowing. Another cautionary signal could be found in the candlesticks formed.  We have twin spinning tops formed in the last two sessions, a sign of indecision and doubly so.  Indecision in an uptrend?  Doesn't sound positive, does it?  Also, notice the huge decline in volume as the counter tries to hang on to its gains.

Genting SP's price seems to have support at $1.50 but gaps are more often than not filled.  So, we could see price touching $1.46 in case of weakness.  From the chart, it is clear that the top of the base formation could be found at $1.30 and this is also where the rising 50dMA would approximate soon.  In case of a dramatic decline, expect strong support at $1.30, therefore.

China Hongxing: Retesting resistance.

On 13 August, I suggested that the immediate support was at 14.5c and anyone who bought some in the sessions which saw a low of 14.5c would be laughing to the bank right now.

China Hongxing's volume expanded today as it retested resistance at 17c. Unlike in early August, the technicals are now looking much stronger and China Hongxing's share price could break 17c this time round.

The MACD has turned up and is poised to form a bullish crossover with the signal line in positive territory. Unlike in early August, the MFI is not in overbought territory now and, this coupled with the higher low formed, bodes well for the counter.  Look at the OBV and we see a picture of gradual accumulation.

Overcoming resistance at 17c gives us an immediate target of 19.5c.  Good luck to readers who are vested.

Related post:
Charts in brief: 13 Aug 10 (Part 1).

Golden Agriculture: Breaking the 200dMA.

CPO at RM2,543 and Golden Agriculture's share price is at 53.5c. The 200dMA is at 54c and closing below this MA is bearish.  The question to ask is could this bearishness be short term in nature.

Although the MFI's dramatic decline has continued, signalling a rapid fall in demand, it is bordering on oversold.  The RSI has, in fact, plunged into oversold territory, suggesting that the strong selling pressure might be overdone.  Looking at the OBV, we do not spot any heavy distribution activities.  This suggests that the selling could be by weaker holders.  In fact, look at the volume and we realise that, although higher than the previous three sessions, it is not dramatic.

Drawing upon the gentlest of uptrend lines from the low of 25 May, we find the next support at 52.5c.  Look at the weekly chart and 52.5c is where we find the 50wMA and this has proven to be a reliable support before.  Very interestingly, look at the MFI and RSI in the weekly chart. They are rising and as price fell in the last three weeks, the MFI continued rising. If price bounces off 52.5c, we could have a reversal on hand.


"Palm oil prices must rise to around MYR3,000 ($955) a metric ton to curtail demand for exports, as bouts of bad weather have limited palm production growth in Indonesia and Malaysia, the world’s top palm oil producers, leading vegetable oils analyst Dorab Mistry said Thursday evening. 

"Global consumption of vegetable oils for food and biofuels will likely grow by 6 million tons during the year to March 2011, while growth in supply of those oils will likely be a dismal 2.3 million tons due to adverse weather around the world, Mistry said in a speech prepared for an industry conference in Belem, Brazil."

-By Shie-Lynn Lim, Dow Jones Newswires;
August 26, 2010 09:00 ET (13:00 GMT)

Saizen REIT: Better than expected DPU.

Saizen REIT reported full year results this morning and declared a DPU of 0.26c, payable on 29 September 2010.  This is better than expected as the REIT did not have a full quarter to accumulate cash for distribution.  They also refinanced GK Choan and had to pay some fees as well as amortise that loan.  Read about it here. 

So, I was expecting a smallish cash distribution of about 0.1c in September.  Instead, a DPU of 0.26c in September, given the difficult conditions, bodes well for the next DPU in December which would have a whole quarter to accumulate cash for distribution to unit holders.  I estimate the DPU in December to be between 0.4 to 0.5c.  Assuming it is 0.4c, that would give an annualised DPU of 1.6c and an annualised yield of 10% at the current unit price of 16c.

Some key numbers from the reports:

1.  Annual valuation of properties (161 Freehold buildings in Japan) declined 4% from a year ago from JPY42,051.1m to JPY40,381.7m.  The rate of decline has slowed and this is in line with the general view that real estate prices in Japan are bottoming.  Read valuation report here.

2.  NAV is still at 40c per unit given the strong JPY.  The JPY is likely to stay strong, given the concerns of weak recoveries in heavily indebted western economies.

3.  NPI yield at 6.7%.  This is above the average of 5% that is required by most pension funds.

4  Gearing level at 36.9%.  This is quite comfortable.

5. Occupancy rate at 91.3%.  This is Saizen REIT's strength as it was able to maintain an occupancy rate of above 90% even through the recession.

Read full report here.

The one last thorn in the sides of Saizen REIT is the CMBS for YK Shintoku.  A punitive interest rate of 7.07% is still being paid to the bondholders.  Successfully refinancing this CMBS with a conventional bank loan at a more reasonable interest rate of about 4% would bring about substantial cost savings and could bump up DPU significantly.  This would be a major positive catalyst for Saizen REIT's unit price to be revalued upwards when it happens.

Discussions with a financial institution on the terms and timing of a loan, which will potentially enable the loan of YK Shintoku to be refinanced, have commenced. Currently, the main impact of the maturity default is the increase in interest rate on the outstanding loan amount from 3.07% per annum to a default interest rate of 7.07% per annum.

I am happy with Saizen REIT's results and look forward to a higher DPU in December.

Saizen REIT's slides presentation here.

Related posts:
Saizen REIT: 3Q FY2010 results.

Improve your trading skills: Learn technical analysis from the experts.

Macquarie is inviting avid investors and traders to a FREE SEMINAR where Mr. Keane Lee, the founder of the T3B trading system, will be sharing his trading techniques. These include trend spotting and opportunities, how to set stop losses and using gearing to increase returns.

The session will also include a short presentation on warrants and how they can be used to increase exposure while limiting total capital at risk.

About Mr. Keane Lee:
Mr. Lee obtained his DR License and was a Dealer Representative proficient in various trading systems, strategies and indicators. This was in the 1990s. He is highly proficient in intraday and short term swing trading in stocks, CFDs, futures, options and warrants. He formulated his first trading system in 1996. This was vigorously back-tested, forward-tested, evaluated and refined. He became a multi-millionaire using this system before he was 30.

Improve your trading skills: Learn technical analysis from the experts.

Dates: 30 August 2010 & 31 August 2010

Time: 6.30 pm to 8.30 pm

Venue: DBS Auditorium, 6 Shenton Way, DBS Building Tower 1, Level 3

Admission is FREE and light refreshments will be provided after each session.

Register at: http://www.warrants.com.sg/en/seminar/seminar_e.cgi

ADVERTORIAL

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Rights issue.

Unlike the share placement proposed by Cambridge Industrial Trust, a rights issue allows all unit holders to participate in an enlarged capital base and to reap the rewards, if any.  So, is this rights issue beneficial to unit holders?  Let us examine the proposal.

I won't go into the full details since anyone interested enough could find all the details in the announcement at SGX.  Read it here. For anyone who is more visually inclined, presentation slides could be viewed here.

Basically, the proposal is to acquire 27 Penjuru Lane (a 30 years leasehold property starting October 2004) for S$161.0 million.  This price is about 2% below the latest valuations.  This acquisition will be funded by debt and equity.

Debt is in the form of two term loans (a 3 year term loan of S$100m and a 5 year term loan of S$100m) and a revolving credit facility of S$80m for a period of 3 years. The manager will use S$97 million to part finance the cost of the acquisition and S$175 million to refinance an existing S$175 million facility maturing in December 2012, allaying refinancing fears.  The 7 for 20 rights issue at a price of 15.5c per unit would raise a net amount of $74.8m, of which S$64.5 million will be used to part finance the acquisition.

The acquisition will contribute to a higher NPI yield.  The current portfolio has a NPI yield of 7.4% while the property to be acquired has a NPI yield of 7.7%.  Post acquisition, the NPI yield for the REIT becomes 7.5%.  Due to the rights issue, however, the NTA per unit would decline from 31c to 26c.  However, what is of more interest to unit holders is probably the DPU and how it would be impacted.

Acquiring the property in question would bump up the total cash distribution to unit holders.  However, due to the rights issue, actual DPU would decline from 0.54c per quarter to 0.52c per quarter. So, existing unit holders will see a reduction of 3.7% in yield for their current investment in the REIT.

Having said this, unlike a share placement as proposed by CIT which dilutes the shares of existing unit holders without any benefits, the rights here are offered to unit holders at only 15.5c.  On an annualised basis, these rights shares are therefore going to enjoy a yield of 13.42%. We lose some and we win some. I support this rights issue and will apply for excess rights as well.

K-Green Trust: Possibly stabilised.

On 15 Aug, I did a TA for KGT and suggested that its chart showed some weakness. At that time, it hit a low of $1.11.  In the next two sessions, it went to a low of $1.10 as its price hugged the lower Bollinger. It has since shown a detachment from the lower Bollinger as price moved sideways. Volume has been declining in recent sessions with this sideway movement in price. This suggests that much of the selling is done. This is possibly confirmed by the OBV which has gone flat which suggests a stalemate between accumulation and distribution.

 

The RSI's lower highs indicate recent selling pressure and the index is now in oversold territory.  The MFI has similarly entered the oversold territory with falling demand. However, both indices are turning up slightly. Is a reversal on hand? It is too early to tell. However, there is a picture of growing stability as price has moved sideways for more than a week.

I decided to look at the Stochastics since it is most useful in a rangebound situation.  It has been trending up in the oversold region since 5 Aug. This looks promising. It means that the daily closing price has been relatively stronger in recent sessions compared to its price range.

On 3 July, I blogged that KGT has "Stable cash flow, low risk and room to grow.  This sounds like a good addition to my passive income portfolio. It diversifies my income stream and injects a higher level of stability at the same time. The lower yield is acceptable because of its debt free balance sheet.  When a balance sheet is heavy in debt, the risk is higher and, consequently, I would demand a higher yield."

I have been waiting for a possibly better entry price but it was impossible to use TA at that time as KGT was newly listed then. This situation is being corrected.

I believe the catalyst for an upward movement in price for KGT would be the announcement of a cash distribution and a near term support seems to have formed at $1.10 in anticipation of this. Therefore, I would buy some at the current price of $1.11 instead of waiting as per my original plan.

With an estimated yearly DPU of 7.82c, buying at $1.11 would give a yield of 7.05%.  It would also be buying at almost the NAV of $1.12. I believe that KGT would be a valuable part of my passive income portfolio.

Related post:
Charts in brief: 13 Aug 10 (Part 3).

Today's millionaires.

Do you know that millionaires' effective income tax rate might actually be lower? This is true in the USA and it is also true in Singapore.

Remember how much income tax I had to pay? See: Double your income but not your tax.



85% of America's rich are self made. (18 March 2014.)

I enjoyed reading this article and would like to share it:

7 Millionaire Myths
by Claire Bradley, 15 Aug, 2010


1. Millionaires Don't Pay Their Taxes 
2. Millionaires Just Inherited Their Money
3. Millionaires Feel Rich 
4. Millionaires Have High-Paying Jobs
5. Millionaires All Drive Fancy Cars 
6. Millionaires Hang Around the Golf Course All Day
7. Millionaires Are Elitists


Today's millionaires are people who live within their means, budget and spend wisely, and focus on financial independence first. 

These are habits that take discipline, but ones we can all adopt to begin growing wealth. If these facts prove anything, it's that every one of us can strive to become a millionaire.

Read article here.

You might also like this post:
Grow your wealth and beat inflation.

Golden Agriculture: Inverted black hammer.

On 16 Aug, I mentioned: "Any further weakness should see strong support at 55.5c as provided by the 100dMA." Price closed at 55.5c in the last session. This is also where we find the rising 50dMA which seems set to form a golden cross with the 100dMA soon. The volume, although rising, is relatively low.

The declining MACD does suggest some price weakness and the 20dMA has completed its turn downwards.  The MFI, although showing longer term strength, might continue to decline in the near term if price weakens to test the 200dMA as support and if volume increases on such a move. This next support is at 54c. 

Despite the recent weakness in price, OBV does not show a major downswing, suggesting that distribution is weak. Thus, I would continue to accumulate on weakness.

Related post:
Golden Agriculture: Chinese demand on the rise.