Gold and Silver highest in the last 12 months.

Gold is currently at US$1,267.51 an ounce while silver is currently at US$20.42 an ounce. These prices are higher than in June 2010 when I blogged (again) about how we should hold some gold and silver as a hedge against all other forms of investments and against fiat currencies. What little exposure I have to these two precious metals is turning out rather nicely.

In the short run, I see immediate support for gold at US$1,260.00 an ounce and immediate support for silver at US$20.20 an ounce.  Gold is now challenging resistance at US$1,270.00 and if it does break this, it could go much higher.

On 20 June 2010, I blogged that "if we believe in charting, silver's longer term trend is still up and I would buy more on weakness." That view has not changed.

Related post:
Hedging and precious metals.

Gold hit $1,269.45 on the London Bullion Market on Tuesday afternoon, beating the previous record of $1,265.30 struck on June 21. Read article here.

Addition on 15 Sep 10:
Gold prices under the continuous contract set a new all-time high of $1274.60 per ounce, well above the previous all time high of $1266.50 per ounce. Silver prices continued their ascent as well. Specifically, the December contract for the precious metal hit $20.55 per ounce.

K-REIT: Trading bands.

It seems that the worst is over for office rentals in Singapore. There is a general expectation that things have stabilised and we could even see some upside next year.  I have a small position in K-REIT in my frozen portfolio and this small investment is actually enjoying a paper gain now.  So, when would I sell my stake?

We could do a very simple TA for K-REIT even if I do not have access to today's data on ChartNexus. Price touched a high of $1.28 before closing at $1.26. It opened at $1.27 and touched a low of $1.25. So, picturing it mentally, it formed a black spinning top today. That it touched a high of $1.28 is significant as it confirms $1.28 as an important resistance level. Volume was only half of yesterday's which suggests a lack of conviction by sellers today even as price action formed a black candle.  So, the indecision suggested by the black spinning top does not have strong downside pressure, I feel.  In case of continuing downside, where do I see support?

Looking at the chart, it is quite obvious that $1.22 was a major resistance level and I expect this to provide immediate support in case of a move downwards. If this breaks, the next support is at $1.16.  Having said this, you could have noticed an interesting phenomenon. K-REIT seems to be trading in a 6c trading range recently: $1.16 to $1.22 and $1.22 to $1.28.  This is useful information for anyone who is interested in profiting from some range-bound trading.

In the event that $1.28 resistance is taken out, one could therefore expect $1.34 to be the next resistance level if this phenomenon continues to play out.

Singapore office plays better bet vs developers: Morgan Stanley
Tuesday, 14 September 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Golden Agriculture: Trading Buy by OSK.

On 8 Sep 10, I mentioned that "I am vested in Golden Agriculture because I believe in its fundamentals." So, even if the technicals were somewhat directionless, I was willing to take the risk going long. Today, OSK upgraded Golden Agriculture's target price to 68c. Fundamentally, I think that is a fair price.  However, how does the technical picture look?

Today, its share price hit a high of 60.5c before closing at 59c, forming an inverted black hammer in the process. That this happened on much higher volume than the previous session is not promising.  On a brighter note, it does mean that price action broke out of the triangle suggested on 8 Sep 10 on the upside.  Could this be sustained?  I don't know about 68c but I spot a major resistance at 62c. This has been tested many times and price has closed above this level only once this year and that was on 11 Jan 10.  Many people who bought at 62c are probably waiting to break even at that price. Hence, the expected resistance.  So, if price does test 62c again, I would sell some.  In case of a further decline in price, I see immediate support at 58c.

I am not able to comment on the momentum oscillators or OBV this evening and I am afraid I do not have a chart to put up as, for some reason, my broker's version of ChartNexus has not been updated yet.

Golden Agri-Resources raised to Trading Buy by OSK. Expects "very strong" 3Q10 results after 2Q10 weakness due to dry weather, as production recovering.
Tuesday, 14 September 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Related post:
Golden Agriculture: Triangle.

Alexa (Part 2) - Updated 2 Nov 10.

According to Alexa, my blog's traffic ranking in Singapore has improved.  However, its global traffic rank has slipped.  This probably means that although my blog is gaining in popularity in Singapore, there are many more websites in the world now and they are more popular than my blog on a global scale.

Our country's government is always telling local companies to go global and that the domestic market here is just too small.  Even if my blog becomes more popular locally, on a global scale, it is still insignificant and, in fact, is getting more so.  That's the message Alexa is sending to me.  This message from Alexa reinforces the perception of how small Singapore really is.


According to Alexa:
Singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.com has a three-month global Alexa traffic rank of 730,608.  Visitors to the site view an average of 2.3 unique pages per day. Visitors to Singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.com spend approximately two minutes on each pageview and a total of eight minutes on the site during each visit. Roughly 33% of visits to the site consist of only one pageview (i.e., are bounces).

Global traffic rank: 730,608 (was 667,393 on 28 July).
Traffic rank in SG: 2,506 (was 3,808 on 28 July).

Updated on 14 Oct 2010:

Singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.com has a three-month global Alexa traffic rank of 684,209. Visitors to the site spend approximately two minutes on each pageview and a total of nine minutes (up from eight minutes) on the site during each visit. Roughly 28% of visits to the site consist of only one pageview (i.e., are bounces) - down from 33%. Visitors to Singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.com view an average of 3.3 unique pages per day - up from 2.3 unique pages per day.

Global traffic rank: 684,209. 

Traffic rank in SG: 2,218.

Updated on 2 Nov 2010:

 

Singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.com has a three-month global Alexa traffic rank of 630,248. Visitors to the site spend approximately two minutes on each pageview and a total of ten minutes (up from nine minutes) on the site during each visit. Visitors to Singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.com view an average of 4.0 unique pages per day. up from 3.3 unique pages per day.

Global traffic rank: 630,248. 

Traffic rank in SG: 2,021 .

Related post:
Alexa


Visit Alexa: here.

Hock Lian Seng: Resistance broken.

On 9 Sep, I wondered if the 30c resistance level could be taken out soon and went on to say that "I believe so as the massive 30c sell queue was wiped out today."  Today, Hock Lian Seng touched a high of 31c before closing at 30.5c.

Although volume is lower than the previous session which saw the shares trading at only one price, 30c, we could have seen the effective weeding out of weaker holders.  30c could be resistance turned support.

OBV has continued its upward trajectory suggesting continual accumulation.  MFI shows formation of higher lows which suggests sustained demand.  RSI has lower highs which suggest that buying momentum is weak.  So, this counter has support but its share price is not going up in a hurry, it seems.  Another counter that requires more patience, perhaps?

Related post:
Hock Lian Seng: Ready to break resistance?

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 23c support?

This REIT is attracting more interest as volume expanded again today as price rose to close the day at 23.5c.  23c resistance has been taken down.  Could we see 23c turn support this time round after it failed to do so in early August?

Taking a look at the momentum oscillators, the MFI has formed a higher low which signifies strengthening demand while the RSI has risen sharply into the overbought region which suggests strong buying momentum and that buying in now could bring with it higher risk. OBV has turned up sharply, suggesting accumulation.  All the technicals are promising and whether 23c could be the new support needs confirmation.

This REIT would go XR on 15 Sep, 2 days from now.  Expectations are for the price to weaken to around 21c (TERP) then.  It would be interesting to see if it pans out.

Related post:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Rights issue.

REITs: Simply explained?

The diversity of opinions in this world is what makes it colorful and interesting.  Everyone is free to express his opinions on diverse subjects.  We should remember, however, it is not just what is said which is important.  Of equal importance is how it is said.

I have been following a series of posts on the subject of REITs by a certain local blogger. Are his posts on REITs objective? I don't think so but I respect the blogger's right to express his opinions and I am sure readers will arrive at their own conclusions.  However, I do hope that this blogger would exercise restraint and not make insinuations beyond what is civil.

In his latest post, he took a quote from the writings of another blogger:

"For those existing investors who could raise the capital to subscribe for their rights, they are returning most (if not all or more) of the dividends they had collected back to the REIT. Don’t let the discounted price fool you as you are essentially paying just to maintain your percentage shareholding in the REIT." -Lion Investor

The blogger whom I am taking issue with went on to say:

I can't agree more with the truth on "the discounted price fool" as I recently overheard some joys near the Temple of Cows over AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT's right issues - discounted price fools?

Firstly, Lion Investor was expressing an opinion about how we should exercise caution and not let discounted price of rights fool us into thinking we are getting a good deal.  The word "fool" is used as a verb.  The blogger in question has twisted it and used it as a noun. Calling people names isn't very nice, is it?

Secondly, going beyond language, let us objectively evaluate what Lion Investor has said and consider the proposed rights issue by AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT in the same vein.  Are we paying more money just to maintain our "percentage shareholding in the REIT"? 

In the case of AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT's rights issue, the objectives are clearly communicated. 

We are putting down more money to participate in the REIT's income accretive activities which would benefit us as unit holders. 

We are paying more money but NOT just to maintain our percentage shareholding in the REIT. 

See: AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Rights issue.

At a level that is of greatest importance to most, unit holders could choose to participate and enjoy a higher yield in future or unit holders could choose to sell away their nil-paid rights when they start trading. 

This was what I said:

REITs are income instruments.  Therefore, we must remember that we are investing in REITs for regular income.  The DPU per unit would decline from 2.15c to 2.08c, post rights.  This is a DPU loss of 0.07c a year.  It is not dramatic.  We would also be able to sell away the nil-paid rights when trading starts.  At an exercise price of 15.5c and with expectations that price would see a modest decline to 21c per unit, post rights, we can expect the nil-paid rights to trade at around 5.5c each.  Selling these away would bag 30 months' worth of DPU (post rights) straightaway!  Now, is that such a bad thing?

On top of that, our current investment would still make an annual DPU of 2.08c!  This is provided that everything remains constant, of course.

Accept and pay for the rights or sell away as nil-paid rights, either way, unit holders end up winners.  There will always be detractors but as long as we are clear headed and know what to do in any given scenario, we will be fine.

Unit holders could sell away their nil-paid rights as compensation for dilution and their remaining units in the REIT would still enjoy a very high yield.  

Unit holders who choose to accept and pay for their rights would see their future income increase in dollar terms and at a higher yield.  They are paying more money for greater returns.

Respect has to be earned but sometimes we accord respect to people based on seniority.  Respect should also be reciprocated. Being civil is a great way to start.

Related post:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Sell the rights.

Be a real estate owner the easy way.

I have blogged about the importance of wealth building especially at a rate which would beat inflation.

I also mentioned that investing in real estate is part of a complete approach towards wealth building and how it could be a hedge against inflation.

I have shared on how this could be achieved and how there is no short cut.  Rome was not built in a day and for the vast majority of us, wealth building is an incremental process.

Recently, a customer whom I have known for many years had a conversation with me. He was quite excited and told me that there is a way to own real estate with no money or very little money. 

Right away, I remembered some ads I saw in the newspapers with some similar proposal.  I have always ignored the ads because there is simply no way one could own real estate without any money, or own anything for that matter without any money.

However, then, I was a captive audience and I listened as my customer went on to say all we had to do is to get 120% financing for a piece of real estate. Simple. With interest rates at record low and with rental yield at record highs, it is a no brainer. 

My customer is from Malaysia but I am not sure if he was referring to the situation in Kuala Lumpur. Rent out the property, pay the banks the required monthly repayment and the balance is ours to keep.  Simple again.  It sounds great from a cash flow perspective.


I asked if he would be buying a condominium unit using this method then.  He gave me a look that made me felt quite small and asked why only one?  Imagine the amount of money which could be flowing into our bank accounts every month if we had five or ten units! It is so simple!  It sounds irresistible from a cash flow perspective.

Easy money is always tempting but bearing in mind that there is no free lunch in this world, let us look at this proposal carefully.  Remember how I instinctively brushed away ads with similar proposals? 

Well, firstly, we cannot own anything unless we have paid in full for it with our own money.  If we had borrowed money to buy something, we do not own that thing, we simply have control and possession of it but we do not own it.  The lender could do a repossession if we failed to make repayments in a timely manner.

Secondly, 120% financing is leveraging in the extreme.  Yes, if the party continues for another decade, we could become quite rich.  The exact figures depend on how low the interest rate is for the loan and how high the yield could be from renting out the property in question. 

What if the party were to stop abruptly?

We would find ourselves suddenly under a ton of debt without any income. This would make Nightmare on Elm Street look like a walk in a park! Pardon my use of a piece of horror real estate as a comparison.

An environment of easy credit and rampant risk taking is helping to fuel inflation.  I continue to believe that we will see higher inflation in Asia (ex-Japan) over time. 

In Economics, linear relationships are the norm and this cycle will have its run.  Riding on this wave could be exhilarating but as any surfer would tell you, even the best surf would come to an end.

Related posts:
Grow your wealth and beat inflation.
Real estate as hedge against inflation.

Tea with AK71: Top 5 posts (Part 2).

On 17 April 2010, I mentioned that I was surprised to find that the most read post in my blog was one of my first blog posts written last year on Christmas Eve. That same post remained in the top spot until recently.  It is now in number three position.  Considering its age and having more time on its side, which later posts could have dethroned it?

The following ranking is based on the number of pageviews each post generated since the day they were published:

Number One:
Create more passive income with limited capital.
(29 May 2010)
- All of us have limited capital.  How do we make our capital work harder to give us more in return?  That is a question that many would like to have answered.  This post provides a possible answer to this question and this is probably why it is in the top position.

Number Two:
A minimum of 50k in annual passive income.
(5 Sep 2010)
- The interest this post has generated has been astounding thus far. The allure of passive income is unmistakable and when we put a value to what could be achieved annually if we work at it, it becomes a powerful statement.

Number Three:
High yield portfolio.
(24 Dec 2009)
- Previously Number One and the only post in the previous top 5 posts to retain a position in this ranking exercise.  The interest in building a high yield portfolio is perennial, it seems, and stronger than I could ever imagine.

Number Four:
K-Green Trust: A stable source of passive income.
(3 Jul 2010)
- Making it to the top 5 is my first post on K-Green Trust.  This is a very safe instrument for passive income generation.  I like this trust but wish it could be cheaper, of course.

Number Five:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Rights issue.
(23 Aug 2010)
- This is a post which could slowly fade into oblivion once the rights issue is done and over with.  For now, it is generating quite a lot of interest.

Related post:
Tea with AK71: Top 5 posts.

SPH: Touched $4.20.

SPH touched $4.20 today but that price saw few transactions although volume expanded.  Few were willing to buy at that price, it would seem.  A short legged doji was formed and this could be interpreted as a day of tight price action with price closing ultimately unchanged from the opening. There is little conviction by either the bulls or the bears today although an increase in trading volume suggests that the tug of war grew in strength.

A rising OBV suggests more accumulation activities while the momentum oscillators are flattening in overbought territories. This suggests that demand is faltering and buying pressure is tapering off. A correction from oversold conditions could very likely be next.

Although a correction could be avoided if volume expands in the next few sessions as price pushes upwards, such a move would have a formidable sell queue to clear at $4.20. If ever this resistance was cleared, SPH's share price could fly.  At the moment, chances are slim that this would happen.  TA is all about probability after all.

Related post:
SPH: Waiting for elusive $4.20.

Hock Lian Seng: Ready to break resistance?

Hock Lian Seng isn't the most exciting counter in the market, for sure. However, today, volume expanded as all shares transacted were traded at one price and one price only, 30c.  To me, this suggests that all the weak holders have been weeded out.  If anyone wants to buy shares of this company now, buying at 30c per share is the only choice.  This is a resistance level which has been tested a few times before in the last one month.  Could this resistance level be taken out soon? I believe so as the massive 30c sell queue was wiped out today.

We could draw an uptrend support line from 15 July and this would approximate the rising 20dMA.  Nice. Could we be seeing the formation of an ascending triangle? Possibly.  If this is this case, could we see price rising to 34c? We could but I would expect rather strong resistance at 32c.

The MFI has successfully stayed above 50% and the uptrend is still intact.  The OBV has risen very gently and consistently. Demand and accumulation are present. With this fundamentally sound counter, patience is definitely required.

Related post:
Hock Lian Seng: Steady accumulation.

Golden Agriculture: Triangle.

Accumulation of shares in Golden Agriculture seems to have come to a halt as the OBV flattens. Over a shorter term, momentum oscillators are still rising but this could change quickly.  The MACD histogram has turned red and volume shrank dramatically today as price action formed a doji, suggesting indecision.

The technicals are somewhat ambivalent at this stage.  Up or down?  The probability seems to be quite even either way.  If we look at the bigger picture, we would understand why.  It seems that price action is forming a large symmetrical triangle. Volume has also been declining.  Which way would its price go?  Being in a symmetrical triangle, price could go either way.

Personally, I am vested in Golden Agriculture because I believe in its fundamentals.  CPO price is up again today at RM2,674. This is an increase of 1.75%.  However, for anyone who is in doubt and feeling unsure, staying out is the best thing to do.

CapitaMalls Asia: Upgraded by Daiwa.

CapitaMalls Asia broke out of a downtrend on 2 Sep and touched a high of $2.25.  Today, Daiwa upgraded CapitaMalls Asia to outperform but the share price fell instead to $2.20.  Could price fall further?

The MACD histogram has turned red. This is a sell signal. MFI has formed a lower high which suggests weakening demand. OBV shows a slowdown in accumulation but there isn't any serious reversal.  RSI has dipped and left the overbought territory behind.  The current weakness could just be a correction from overbought conditions. If so, where is the next support?

I see the next support at $2.14, a many times tested candlestick resistance level and should be a strong support. This is also where we find the downtrend resistance line which the counter broke out of on 2 Sep. This price level is likely to be fresh on the minds of market participants.

CapitaMalls Asia upgraded to Outperform by Daiwa... says property group’s recent $788.9 million joint acquisition with CapitaLand (C31.SG) of Singapore’s Bedok Town Centre site, which can be developed into residential-cum-retail property, reinforces CMA’s dominance in local retail property market.

Wednesday, 08 September 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

China Hongxing: New target.

Yesterday, when Edmond asked if we should set a higher target for China Hongxing at 22c, I replied "22c is what could be the eventual target if 19.5c is taken out convincingly (ie. volume has to expand significantly as price rises). However, along the way to 22c, there are many minor resistance levels to overcome."

Well, 19.5c was demolished as the price touched a high of 20.5c before closing at 20c today. This was achieved on very high volume. 20.5c was a resistance level that broke in early January.  Based on Fibo lines, it looks like a minor resistance and we could see 22c tested next (138.2% Fibo line). Congratulations, Edmond. :)

OBV is still rising strongly signalling continuing accumulation. The uptrend in the MFI is intact as it formed higher lows.  Demand is still strong.  It is however on the verge of being overbought but this does not really mean anything apart from suggesting that we stay vigilant, especially with such strong underlying momentum.

This is possibly the reason for the breakout:

China Hongxing Sports bags $198m worth of orders from Xiamen trade fair. The order book of RMB 1 billion represented a 12.6% increase as compared to that held in August 2009.
Wednesday, 08 September 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Related post:
China Hongxing: Pushing upwards.