Asian REITs 1H 2010.

The report by CBRE RESEARCH (ASIA) titled REITS AROUND ASIA 1H 2010 makes for interesting reading. See the following two paragraphs from the report regarding S-REITs:

The total market capitalisation of S-REITs stood at US$21.1 billion as of the end of the first half, making it the second largest REIT market in Asia after Japan. The outlook for S-REITs is stable as the sector continues to be supported by the strong rebound in Singapore’s economy, the stabilisation of rents across the retail, office and industrial property sub-sectors  as well as the steady performance and lower refinancing risk of many S-REITs.

The simplicity of S-REITs as an investment instrument, their strong underlying fundamentals and relatively risk averse nature continue to make them an attractive option for investors. The S-REIT market has developed and matured over the last eight years, in size as well as in complexity and depth. S-REIT portfolios now cover a wide array of assets in retail, commercial, industrial, healthcare, hospitality and residential sectors, all of which are situated in diverse locations around the region. Investors in REITs have also evolved and now look towards the potential of a REIT’s property portfolio. These include factors such as asset type, geographical location, occupancy rates, demographics, lease terms, tenant quality and diversity, all of which combine to provide support for the portfolio’s aggregate rental income and in turn the sustainability and stability of the REIT’s distributable income. Investors also consider the REIT manager as this directly involves the development and implementation of the REIT’s investment strategy, the management of its portfolio and capital structure to foster long-term profitability.

Read complete research paper here.

Saizen REIT: More buying interest.

I received an email from a reader today saying:

"Seems like u like japan. Saizen see pick up in vol today and yesterday"

My reply:

"I like Japan a lot. Beautiful country, nice people, good food. Everything works. It is like Singapore but costs more.

"Saizen REIT is very undervalued. It is a matter of time that more investors take notice. It also takes time for its troubled past to fade. I have been holding for a year. I can wait a few more months."

Reader's reply:

"About one of your question, if the yield at 6.5% is attractive. I think the current yield is not attractive, and if the price goes up, the yield will fall further?

"Even though it has upside potential due to the NAV, it may be cap by the yield, unless the revenues improve?"

My reply:

"6.5% is attractive because the properties are Freehold. It is perpetual. If the properties are leasehold, then, it is not very attractive.

"For such a portfolio, a fair yield should be 5% which means unit price should be about 21c."

This reader is not the only person with negative perceptions or reservations about Saizen REIT, I am sure. There are also those who are worried about Japan's future which includes its debts and its demographics. I have voiced my opinion about these concerns before and you might want to read it here.

How do I feel towards these negative feelings and perceptions? Glad. Yes, glad.  There are still many doubters and the wall of worries is still intact. When everyone is bullish about something, that is a sign that we should think of exiting.

However, I noticed that there seems to be more buying interest in Saizen REIT today too. Of 3,260 lots that changed hands today, 2,968 lots were bought up at 16c. This could just be an anomaly or this could be the beginning of something bigger. Who can say for sure? A crack in the wall of worries? Perhaps.

The very thin trading volume of this counter makes TA unreliable but, for want of a better tool, let us look at the charts anyway. In end May and early October, Saizen REIT touched a low of 15c. It is interesting to note that the MACD has formed a higher low in early October. This is interpreted as a positive. The MACD has, in fact, moved higher into positive territory which suggests the return of positive momentum.

The MFI, a function of volume and price, is in oversold territory. The OBV does not show any big moves of accumulation or distribution. All the daily MAs seem to be bunching together. I have seen such a gathering before and likened it to a spring coiling up with tension. The 20dMA is set to complete a golden cross with the 50dMA. Immediate resistance at 16c.  Immediate support at 15.5c.

Let us now look at the weekly chart which could be revealing for a counter with such thin trading volume like Saizen REIT. It is immediately apparent that 16c is a formidable resistance level as that is where we find the merged 20w and 50w MAs.  However, the gently upturning 100wMA and the rising MACD which just did a bullish crossover with the signal line suggests that the longer term trend of Saizen REIT is positive.

Related post:
Saizen REIT: AGM on 19 Oct 10.

Golden Agriculture: Up or down?

Golden Agriculture's share price staged a recovery today, forming a short white candle, closing at 68c. Note that the price moved higher today on relatively low volume. Since 18 Oct, this is the counter's second attempt to move higher. We need to see volume expansion to have a meaningful upward movement in price that is sustainable at the same time.

Would the rising 20dMA be able to push the price higher? My suspicion is that sellers would turn out in force if price moves closer to 70c as it is a thrice tested resistance in recent memory.  Therefore, 70c remains the resistance to watch.

Critical support is at 65c. If this were to break with high volume, we could see price retreating to 61c, a possible resistance turned support and this is also where the rising 50dMA is approximating soon.

Golden Agri +5.3%; Positive press helps a tad: Analyst. Analyst adds, fundamentally, no impact on company, RSPO compliance actually a money-losing issue, estimates RSPO compliance cost at U$3/tonne. “It’s a PR issue for Golden Agri, and now they’ve got some positive press, the stock has moved up.” $0.705 recent peak may cap medium term.
Monday, 01 November 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

NOL: $2.21 and moving higher?

NOL's share price pushed higher today, forming a nice white candle, to close at $2.21, just 2c shy of the intra day high at $2.23. Volume expanded nicely as well.

All technical indicators show that the uptrend has positive momentum: MFI has formed higher lows suggesting a sustained demand and this is reinforced by the OBV which shows consistent accumulation. Every single pullback in NOL's share price in the past few months was an opportunity to accumulate, it would seem.

Taking in the Fibo lines, we could see 138.2%, which coincides with the high of 15 April, retested.  This is at $2.35. This, of course, is based on the assumption that the current bullish momentum follows through. With the MFI poised to enter overbought territory, taking some profits off the table in such a situation is not a bad idea although in extremely bullish conditions, the MFI could stay overbought for a long while.

Rare earth minerals: A new old frontier?

On 21 Oct, I blogged about rare earth minerals and how China mines 93% of the world's supply.  I concluded the blog post by saying "Mining almost all of the world's rare earth minerals, non-renewable resources which seem to have no viable alternatives at the current point in time, makes the Chinese a force as formidable as OPEC and possibly more."

Well, the recent belligerent attitude of China towards its trading partners in the West could possibly backfire at least in the rare earth minerals trading department as I read this just now:

The rising global demand for rare earth metals - the elements needed to make items like hybrid electric cars and laptop batteries - have caused the value of rare earths mining companies to soar in just a few months.

We've told you about one company, Rare Element Resources, that saw its stock surge 1200% in the last year.

But China's outright monopoly in the industry, along with fears that it will cut down on its rare earth exports, are driving plenty of other stocks higher too.

Posted Oct 28, 2010 01:00pm EDT by Gregory White and Hannah Kim, Yahoo! Finance.

Read article here.

Related post:
Control of non-renewable resources!

Tea with AK71: Hand sanitiser.

I started using hand sanitisers after the SARS outbreak years ago. Basically, everyone became a bit more conscious of the need for good personal hygiene. It is very sad but we usually need some earth shattering tragedy to effect some positive changes in society. I guess society evolves more rapidly due to such seismic events.

For many years now, I carry in my sling bag a small bottle of hand sanitiser. I would use it before meals or after doing some work with my hands. It gives me a peace of mind.

In the last two or three years, I switched to Dettol's hand sanitiser as it is the only one that did not leave a sticky feeling after use. The stickiness from using hand sanitisers is what puts off some people.  Dettol's formula solved that problem although it costs more.

Today, while driving to work, I saw a large bus ad announcing that Dettol's hand sanitiser kills 99.9% of all bacteria.  I guess this claim must be on the bottle too but I never really bothered to think about it before.  99.9% of all bacteria? What are the 0.1% of bacteria that remain alive and well?

Is that statement just a quantitative one which means that the sanitiser kills all types of bacteria but some are lucky enough to fall through the cracks? Or is the statement a qualitative one which means it kills 99.9% of all types of bacteria but 0.1% of bacteria types are so strong that they could resist elimination?  I would be very worried if 0.1% of bacteria types are strong enough to resist elimination!

Mapletree Commercial Trust: IPO in early 2011.

For anyone who did not get any shares in MIT's IPO, here's a chance to own some of Mapletree Commercial Trust's. This is a S$1.3 billion IPO expected to take place early next year.

The commercial REIT will draw its initial portfolio from Mapletree Investments’ $6.4 billion worth of Singapore commercial properties, including assets like Vivocity, the island’s largest mall, and several office buildings west of the city-state’s central business district. 

Besides its plan to list its commercial trust, Mapletree Investments also intends to launch several private property funds including a US$300 million Japan fund focused on IT-related infrastructure, a US$300-500 million Vietnam fund in which Mapletree may inject existing commercial and residential projects, and a US$500 million China-focused fund that will invest in a wide range of sectors.

Read full article here:

Mapletree hires bankers for $1.3b IPO: Update
Friday, 29 October 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Tea with AK71: A better car.

Reading the latest issue of Newsweek and this really makes sense:

"Instead of jumping through hoops to make an electric car that most people can't even afford, why not just develop an internal-combustion engine that gets really amazing gas mileage? That's the premise of Troy, Michigan based EcoMotors...."

"Our carbon footprint will be smaller than a full blown electric car running on electricity generated in the U.S., where about 50 percent of electricity is made by coal.  In places like China, where 90 percent of the electricity comes from coal, we'll be far below the carbon footprint of an electric car," says EcoMotors CEO Don Runkle.."

Source:  "Finding more in the tank" by Daniel Lyons in Newsweek, 1 Nov 10.

I have never heard people questioning whether electric cars are really environmentally friendlier, questioning how the electricity that would run the cars is produced.  This is a pertinent question.

There is also the question of wastage as other forms of fuel are combusted to produce electricity which would in turn run the electric cars.  How much is wasted in the conversion process? Would it not be better to build a more efficient internal combustion engine?

I am not an engineer but this idea makes a lot of sense to me. Any thoughts?

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 2Q FY2011.

The REIT saw lots of buying interest today as more than four fifth of the 49 trades were Buy Ups at 22.5c, a total of 1,613 lots out of a total of 1,923 lots that changed hands. I guess market participants were expecting a good set of numbers today as the management reported on its 2Q FY2011 results after market closed at about 7pm.

DPU for the quarter which would be payable on 17 Dec 10 is 0.3968c instead of the anticipated 0.52c.  This is because of the issue of 513.3 million rights units on 14 October 2010 and 7.2 million units to the Manager on 19 October 2010 for payment of the acquisition fee in relation to the acquisition of 27 Penjuru Lane.

Distributable income from 27 Penjuru Lane would be included in the next distribution, not this one, since the acquisition was done in 3Q FY2011 and not in 2Q FY2011.  Expect the DPU for 3Q2011 to be much higher, therefore.

Substantial Unitholders:
16.07%  AMP Capital Investors (Luxembourg No. 4)
11.46%  Dragon Pacific Assets Limited
9.45%   APG Algemene Pensioen Groep N.V
8.24%   Universities Superannuation Scheme Limited
7.65%   George Wang

I have mentioned a few times before that I am waiting to accumulate more at 21.5c. The last time I said this was on 25 Oct: "A reason why I am not in a hurry to accumulate is because I already have a sizeable investment in this REIT. I don't need to accumulate at 22c. I can wait. The technicals suggest that waiting might not be a bad idea too."

If there should be some panic selling next Monday, I would be ready to buy more.

See presentation slides here.

Related post:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Accumulation price?

FCOT: Testing supports.

On 22 Oct, when I blogged about FCOT turning around, I suggested that 17c is a formidable resistance and we know that buying at resistance is not a good idea. We want to buy at supports and, strictly speaking, these supports should be confirmed.

"FCOT has probably turned the corner and the numbers speak for themselves. However, would I buy at the current price level? The encouraging numbers could give FCOT's unit price a lift upwards but it is obvious to any chartist that 17c is the immediate resistance. 17c is the top of a base formation and a thrice tested resistance level in mid-January this year....

"From the looks of it, volume seems to be reducing since hitting a high on 24 Sep. In subsequent up days, volume had been lower. So, it could turn out to be a case of "sell on news". Immediate support is at 16c but I see a stronger support to be provided by the 50dMA which coincides with an uptrend line.  That might be a better entry price.  I do not like to chase."

Closing today above the 20dMA at 16c shows that the shorter term uptrend is still intact although price did touch an intra day low of 15.5c.

What are the chances of price declining further? No one can say for sure but it is obvious that upside momentum is somewhat limited with the RSI forming a lower high and the MACD poised to form a bearish crossover with the signal line.

Although the MFI has formed higher lows, which suggest sustained demand, we could see it retreating to retest its uptrend line or 50%.  So, I won't be surprised to see price declining a tad more and/or volume declining further.

With the fundamentals having improved, buying in at 15.5c or 15c seems like a good idea for a possible annualised DPU of 1.24c, assuming that the last quarterly DPU of 0.31c is sustainable.  This would translate to a yield of 8% at the entry price of 15.5c.  Pretty decent.

Related post:
FCOT: Turning around.

Saizen REIT: Divestment of Kamei Five.

Saizen REIT's YK Shintoku portfolio divested a smallish property, Kamei Five, today for JPY 70,401,250 (S$1.1 million). This piece of real estate is located in Hiroshima, was built in July 1989 and comprises 22 residential units, 2 commercial units and 2 car park lots.

A quick check in the annual report shows that Kamei Five was 92% occupied as of 30 June 2010 and took in JPY 9.9 million in annual rental income. That represents a gross income yield of 14%! What would I not do to buy a building from YK Shintoku's portfolio.

"Following loan repayment using sale proceeds from the divestment of Kamei Five, the remaining balance of the loan of YK Shintoku is estimated to be approximately JPY 5.9 billion (S$94.6 million). Taking into account applicable cash reserves of JPY 0.6 billion (S$9.6 million) maintained by YK Shintoku under the loan agreement, the net outstanding loan of YK Shintoku amounts to approximately JPY 5.3 billion (S$84.9 million)." Read announcement here.

On another matter, Saizen REIT’s quarterly financial results for the period ended 30 September 2010 will be released before market opens on Wednesday, 10 November 2010.

Related post:
Saizen REIT: AGM on 19 Oct 10.
Saizen REIT's properties: Would I buy?

Suntec REIT: BUY calls.

Suntec REIT is enjoying BUY calls from DBS Vickers and CIMB even as it prepares to acquire a one third stake in MBFC. Some salient points:

DBS Vickers

The group revalued up portfolio by 3.6% translating to NAV of $1.828/share. Going forward, Suntec has c14% of office and 27% of retail NLA due for reversion in 2011 and we expect office rents to show some uptick while retail component to remain stable.

Recent refinancing exercise of $700m due in FY12 are likely to lower its current overall cost of debt of 3.77% as the new loans were concluded at a lower spread of 1.5%, as well as smoothen out the group’s debt maturity profile.

We are tweaking our FY11 numbers by 3.1% to reflect the impact of recent refinancing exercise but exclude the effect of the MBFC1 acquisition. Maintain Buy call pending more information on the transaction. Based on FY10 and FY11 DPU of 9.8cts and 9.7cts, Suntec is trading at decent DPU yields of 6.3-6.2%. Our target price of $1.66 offers 12% total return.

CIMB

3Q10 NPI grew 7.6% yoy, led mainly by a 2.1% yoy increase in gross revenue on stronger office contributions and a lower property tax. Portfolio occupancy continued to strengthen on the back of better office occupancy which mitigated lower retail occupancy in the quarter.

Our DDM-based target price, however, has been raised to S$1.63 (discount rate 8.1%) from S$1.60 as we roll over to end-CY11. Maintain Outperform on further improvements in the retail and office outlook. We see near-term catalysts from more concrete signs of DPU accretion from the latest acquisition.

I would wait for the circular on the proposed acquisition and method of financing to be released to unitholders before commenting further.

Related post:
Suntec REIT: MBFC.

K-Green Trust: A bad investment?

There has been much discussion regarding K-Green Trust (KGT) and its yield. I agree that KGT's estimated DPU of 7.82c represents a partial return of capital.

Unlike Saizen REIT which owns freehold properties, for example, KGT's assets have limited lifespans. At the end of their lifespans, they would be returned to the Singapore government and there is no guarantee that their concessions would be renewed and if they were renewed, at what price?

KGT has a total of 3 assets:

1. Senoko Waste-to-Energy Plant

(Concession: 15 yrs fr 1 Sep 09: 14 yrs left)

2. Keppel Seghers Tuas Waste-to-Energy Plant

(Concession: 25 yrs fr 30 Oct 09: 24 yrs left)

3. Keppel Seghers Ulu Pandan NEWater Plant

(Concession: 20 yrs fr 28 Mar 07: 16.5 yrs left)

The Senoko Waste-to-Energy Plant is estimated to contribute to 50% of the Trust's income.  The Tuas Plant is estimated to contribute to 35% while the NEWater Plant is estimated to contribute to 15% of income.

Assuming that KGT pays out 100% of its free cash flow (and this makes it a self liquidating trust), does not engage in any acquisitions over the lifespans of its three existing assets and continues to have a DPU of 7.82c (representing 100% of its free cash flow) while it still has ownership of the said assets, buying KGT at $1.11 would take 14 years to get back my investment.  By then, KGT would be left with its Tuas Plant and NEWater Plant, the Senoko Plant's concession having ended.

Assuming that its DPU is halved after taking away the Senoko Plant, DPU would become 3.9c. This would continue for 2.5 years before the NEWater Plant's concession terminates and we would get a total DPU of 3.9 x 2.5 = 9.75c. Then, we would be left with 7.5 years of concession for the Tuas Plant and assuming the DPU is then reduced by 30% to 2.7c, we would get a total DPU of 2.7c x 7.5 = 20.25c.  In total, I would gain 30c for the $1.11 I invested earlier in August over a 24 years period or a total of 27% return which means a simple return of 1.13% per annum.  This rather simplistic estimation, however, assumes that KGT maintains the status quo which I think is highly unlikely.

KGT is a business trust and it does not have a gearing cap. It could have a gearing level of more than 45% and as long as it is able to generate income in excess of its interest payments and any regular debt repayment, we could see DPU increasing.

If it could land lucrative acquisitions with cheap debt, we could also see it reducing its payout ratio and keeping cash for asset renewal purposes. To think of KGT as a static business trust with no growth opportunities could be rather short sighted.  Why? Because it has zero gearing unlike CitySpring Infrastructure Trust.

Remember that KGT has Right of First Refusal (ROFR) granted by Keppel Corp on four projects which, more likely than not, would be DPU accretive acquisitions as KGT would most probably fund these with debt to begin with since its gearing level is zero:

1. Biopolis DCS Plant Biopolis@one-north, Singapore
2. Changi DCS Plant Changi Business Park, Singapore
3. Woodlands DCS Plant Woodlands Wafer Fab Park, Singapore
4. Amotfors Energi WTE Plant Sweden

Of course, this assumption has its premise on KGT having a competent management team that would take care of unitholders' interests. This remains to be seen.

Would I buy more of KGT? At $1.00, the price I originally thought of on 3 July, I would.

Related post:
K-Green Trust: Weak technicals.

Hock Lian Seng: Buying more?

On 12 Oct, I mentioned that I bought some shares of Hock Lian Seng at 30c support. I also said "Although the uptrend is still intact, could prices weaken further? Why not? The MFI is still in overbought territory while the MACD has just completed a bearish crossover with the signal line.  We could see price weakening to test the 50dMA at 29.5c or even the 200dMA at 29c. The latter being a long term MA should provide a rather strong support and I would probably buy more at 29c, if ever tested." Has the technical picture changed?

The rising 50dMA is now at 30c and 29c is still where we find the 200dMA, a long term MA which should provide a stronger support. If price tests 29c, I would buy more. 29c is also where we find the 138.2% Fibo line. This should lend support in case of retracement.

The MFI is now below 50% and is no longer overbought.  OBV does not show any sign of distribution.  I believe we are seeing weaker holders selling out. The 100dMA is rising strongly and seems on course to forming a golden cross with the 200dMA in time.

Related post:
Hock Lian Seng: 30c support.

Raffles Education: Oriental Century to delist.

News of delisting of Oriental Century seems to have impacted the share price of Raffles Education negatively today as price closed at 28c on higher volume. That 28c support is still holding up perhaps shows that the bad news has already been factored into the price.

Although we could see price going lower once the news is digested by market participants, fundamentally, I do not see Raffles Education's numbers too badly affected since Oriental Century is really old news.

Despite today's somewhat higher volume, a picture of low volume pullback is still quite clear. Higher lows on the MFI and RSI also suggest underlying support in momentum. OBV does not show any signs of distribution.

If 28c breaks, the next support is at 26.5c. Immediate resistance is at 29c.

I would keep an eye on the technicals as this counter could still have a nice recovery story.

Oriental Century to liquidate, delist from SGX. As Oriental Century is insolvent with very limited resources, it will not be able to make any exit offer to its shareholders. Raffles Education holds 29.9% of Oriental Century.
Wednesday, 27 October 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Tea with AK71: MacDonald's Monopoly game.

The last time MacDonald's conducted a game of chance with Monopoly, I was not aware of it until it was halfway through. I found the idea quite ingenious. However, by then, the top prize had been won.

This time round, I am quite early in my discovery and I stand a chance of winning the top prize of S$80,000 cash! I have "Marina Bay" and need "Sentosa Cove".  There is only one "Sentosa Cove" tile in the whole of Singapore since there is only one top prize.  Whoever wins in the end is very lucky.

There is also one car to be won, a 1.6 litre KIA SOUL.  I have two of the three tiles now: "Ardmore Park" and "Holland Road".  I need "Orchard Road".  There is probably only one "Orchard Road" tile in the whole of Singapore too.

It seems that I will be having more value meals at MacDonald's for some time to come.

Suntec REIT: MBFC.

Suntec REIT is purchasing the one-third interest in Marina Bay Financial Centre (MBFC) held by Choicewide Group Limited, Cavell Limited and Hutchison Whampoa Properties Limited for S$1,495.8 million. This is hot on the heels of the announcement by K-REIT that it would purchase Keppel Land's one third interest in the same project. See slides here.

"The Manager is currently reviewing various financing options for the Acquisition to determine an optimal capital structure for the Acquisition. Details for the financing structure will be set out in the circular to be issued to Unitholders in due course, together with a notice of an extraordinary general meeting of Unitholders, for the purpose of seeking the approval of Unitholders for the Acquisition" and "The Acquisition is expected to improve the earnings and distributions for Unitholders". Read press release here

As per Suntec REIT's latest report, its current gearing is at 32.9%.  Total assets at S$5.275 billion.  Debt at S$1.733 billion. The REIT currently has 1,881,862,143 units in issue. See Financial Results for 3Q2010 here.

The net property income (NPI) of Suntec REIT is about S$200 million, annualised. NPI yield is 3.8%.  So, the acquisition at S$1,495.8m should at least have an annualised NPI of about S$60m (for a NPI yield of 4%) to make it NPI yield accretive.

Details as to the NPI of the acquisition has not been made available. However, it was made known that the acquisition will increase Suntec REIT’s office portfolio nett lettable area (NLA) from approximately 1.9 million sq ft to approximately 2.4 million sq ft. Using K-REIT's one third share of the same project as a guide which gives a NPI of S$37.396 million and if we include the income support of S$113.9 million payable over 60 months to be provided by the Vendor, giving us S$ 22.8m per year, we would get S$60.196m per year. So, the purchase looks to be NPI accretive.

It would be interesting to see what kind of financing structure would be decided upon. It is my assumption that Suntec REIT would issue rights to fund the purchase instead of having a share placement exercise if it is sincere about improving the distributions for unitholders. It could also gear up to 45% (on existing properties, excluding the proposed acquisition) and get about $600 million in loans which would reduce the size of any accompanying rights issue. Perhaps, in such an instance, they would have a 1 for 2 rights issue at about $1.00 per rights which would obtain an additional $909 million in funds. It could also gear up on the proposed acquisition (a 40% gearing would secure another $600 million in loans). This would further reduce the size of any accompanying rights issue.

Of course, this is all guesswork on my part. It is very late and I am half asleep. Let's wait for the circular.