AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Rising MACD.

The MACD on this chart has stopped declining.  In fact, it seems to be rising gently, forming higher lows. Higher lows were spotted earlier on in the MFI which suggests firm underlying demand.

The rising 200dMA is at 21c and this, in my opinion, would provide very strong support. Immediate support is at 21.5c while immediate resistance is at 22c.  The downtrend line connecting the highs of 17 Sep and 19 Nov suggests that strong resistance is to be found at 22.5c in the current timeframe.

A quick check on the weekly chart confirms strong support to be at 21c and that the longer term trend is up. I bought more today at 22c and would continue to accummulate on weakness.

Related post:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: High yield with limited downside.

First REIT: Excess rights not enough.

First REIT's rights issue is a resounding success. Valid acceptances at 97.7% which means there are not many excess rights to go around. Of the 7,790,838 rights which were not validly accepted, rounding up of odd lots would have priority. Seeing how there are 88,002,026 excess rights applied for, chances are most of the funds would be refunded to those who applied for excess rights. This includes me.

Rights units would be issued on 30 Dec and will start trading on SGX Main Board on 31 Dec.

Read announcement here.

I believe that there is some fear that First REIT could see a fall in price when the rights units start trading as people cash in their excess rights for a 40% capital gain. Personally, I do not think that very probable. If priority is given to people who need to round up odd lots, how much excess rights would they be able to sell to realise this gain? With such an overwhelming number of excess rights applied for, each unit holder who did apply for excess rights could end up with one or just a few lots of excess rights.

Personally, if I were successful in getting any excess rights at all, I would hold on to them for an estimated yield of 12.8% (6.4c/50c). I would also hold on because I believe the fair value to be closer to 80c (for an 8% yield). I won't be in a hurry to sell.

Having said this, Mr. Market is unpredictable mostly. Price is currently at support provided by the 20d and 50d MAs at 70.5c. In case of a pull back, expect support at 69c, as provided by the rising 100dMA.

First REIT's management also announced that its existing portfolio has been revalued at $355.5 million, an increase of $14.6 million from the end of 2009. This means that NAV for the REIT is now higher by some 4.3% and this would also lower its gearing level a bit. Good news.

Related post:
First REIT: XR and fair value.

Golden Agriculture: Testing resistance at 80c.

The negative divergences on the charts have been there for some time now. However, price continues its levitation act as it retested resistance at 80c today.

In the shorter term, it would make sense to wait for price to pull back to the 20dMA at 77c before loading. Personally, I would wait for a retest of the 50dMA before loading up. Would there be a catalyst for a stronger pull back? If I miss out on this one, then, too bad for me.

Indonesia will raise a tax on crude palm oil exports to 20% for January from 15% this month, an official said late Monday (27 Dec). Trade Ministry Director General of International Trade Deddy Saleh told reporters that the reference price for CPO will be US$1,118.37 a metric ton. (CPO closed at US$1,221 on 28 Dec.)  -By Joko Hariyanto; contributing to Dow Jones Newswires

Related post:
Golden Agriculture: Pulling back.

CapitaMalls Asia: Rising on low volume.

CapitaMalls Asia closed closed at $1.91 today, up 2c. The MACD's bullish crossover is following through as it continues rising above the signal line. Being still in negative territory, this could just be a rebound. However, the higher lows on the MFI and RSI suggest firm underlying demand and buying momentum.

Immediate resistance is at $1.92 which is where the declining 20dMA is approximating.  If this is taken out convincingly, next resistance level is at $1.95 followed by the downtrend resistance at $1.97. Closing above $1.97 would break the current downtrend. Support at $1.83 has been established.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Reversal?

Market malaise and First REIT.

I guess it is safe to say we can take the whole week off and we would not be missing anything. The STI rose 15.56 points on thin volume (total value of S$559.8m) to close at 3,159.36. Thankfully, I was rather busy at work today. Otherwise, I might have been quite bored.

So, what am I looking at in the stock market now? Apart from thinking of what would I be doing in 2011, nothing much. Actually, I have started writing but I am still adding some finishing touches to the blog post. I would definitely put it up before the end of the week. Look out for it.

However, there is one counter that is on my mind: First REIT. It would complete issuance of the rights units (including excess rights) on 30 Dec (Thursday) and the rights units would start trading on 31 Dec (Friday). At an exercise price of only 50c, successful applicants of excess rights would make approximately 40% capital gain immediately!

STI gains 0.5% to close at 3,159.36. Shares on the measure trade at an average 15.4 times estimated earnings, compared with about 17.4 times at the beginning of the year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Monday, 27 December 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Related post:
First REIT: Dragonfly doji at 71c.

MERRY CHRISTMAS!

A photo of the Helix Bridge I took a few evenings ago as I took a walk from MBLM to Millenia Walk. Yes, it was a long walk but it was a cool evening. I rather enjoyed the walk. :-)

See the Singapore Flyer in the background on the right?  I am quite proud of this photo taken with my free Samsung mobile phone's built in 5 megapixel camera. ;-p

Merry Christmas to one and all!

Tea with AK71: ASSI turns 1.

My blog is one year old! Who would have thought that starting this blog out of curiosity exactly a year ago could have resulted in what we see today? I wouldn't dare say that I will blog for years to come but I will definitely continue as long as I still feel happy doing it. :-)

A birthday cake for ASSI:

Actually, it's my own birthday cake as I turned 39 earlier this month and, guess what, it was with compliments from GNC. Free and yummy birthday cake. I like. ;-)


Related posts:
Tea with AK71: Buy me a cuppa tea?
Planning to travel? Check out ZUJI.

Japanese properties attracting international buyers.

International real estate portfolio investors from the United States to Singapore are increasingly looking to buy property in Japan with over $2 billion in deals already agreed this year, it is claimed....

............Franklin Templeton is understood to be looking to buy a portfolio of distressed loans at a discount, which would provide attractive returns and allow access to physical assets, while Blackstone plans to buy Morgan Stanley’s loans which are backed by commercial real estate such as office buildings.
 
Wealthy Chinese investors are also increasingly looking to Japan and a number of travel agencies have started offering Buy Japanese Property tours. Realtors say major foreign private equity groups, real estate trusts and realtors have earmarked an estimated $6.6 billion for investments in Asia, showing interest in Japan’s bricks and mortar assets and property debt.
 
‘While we are cautious around the country’s fundamentals, we do believe that the sheer size of the market allows for opportunities,’ said Peter Kim, managing director, ING Real Estate Investment Management, which has funds invested in Japan......

........Distressed or marked down properties in Japan, such as debt backed by commercial real estate, are also emerging on the radars of foreign buyers. ‘We are finding a degree of success in finding deals through trust banks or lenders who have taken control of over leveraged assets,’ said Jacques Gordon, global investment strategist at LaSalle Investment Management.
 
As foreign money pours in, the real surge in buying may just be starting, according to Mark Brown, a real estate analyst at researcher Japaninvest. The gap between what distressed property owners are asking and the amount buyers are willing to pay is closing fast, he said, adding that would lead to plenty of new deals. 

Source: PropertyWire

Related post:
Japanese real estate: Has it bottomed?

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: High yield with limited downside.

The very low trading volume these days probably affirms talk that most traders are taking the rest of the year off. There is also not much to say with regards to the counters on my watchlist. Most are behaving in ways which I think they would be behaving.

I decided to take a look at AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT which has been holding steady for some time now. I like this REIT for its relatively high yield. However, price has been trapped in a tight range between 21.5c and 22c for many sessions now. What direction would it take in future?

The OBV is generally flat while the MACD has declined into negative territory. Although momentum has turned negative, volume is drying up. It is very likely that this counter could be trading sideways for some time to come. With the rising 200dMA at 21c, downside could be pretty limited. If the 200dMA were ever tested as support, I would probably buy more.  With an expected DPU of 2c in 2011, buying at 21c would mean a yield of 9.52%. All in good time.

Related post:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Revised DPU and fair value.