Tea with AK71: Lucky 4D from ASSI.

In a blog post many moons ago, I asked if gambling was a bad thing. In that post, I said "From a money management standpoint once more, if we budget a small sum of money for entertainment and classify gambling as one form of entertainment, as long as we stay within what is budgeted, gambling would not become financially crippling and it might even be rewarding.  The Chinese people have a saying, "mai ge xi wang", or "buying a hope".  This, I feel, is not a bad thing." Read blog post here.

I have a habit of buying a few BIG SWEEP tickets every month. I would also try my luck at TOTO if the prize money is big enough such as the recent $5m TOTO.

Now, with the Chinese New Year coming up, perhaps I should try my luck once more! If we look at our telephones, we would realise that we could dial ASSI and the numbers are 2774. Could these be the lucky numbers for betting at 4D in the first week of the Chinese New Year?

Wishing all Chinese readers a Happy and Prosperous Chinese New Year! GONG XI FA CAI!

Just found this on YouTube. Not one of the traditional Chinese New Year songs. A mixture of new, old and funky! I like:

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Buy at 21c.

I am still in the queue to buy more of this REIT at 21c. With an annualised DPU of 2.04c, buying at 21c would give an attractive yield of 9.71%. Technically, 21c seems like a strong support as well, underpinned by the 200dMA.

I like to use the MFI as a measurement of demand and it is heartening to see that the uptrend is intact although attempts by the index to rise have been resisted several times at 50% since 21 Jan. An expansion in volume as price pushes higher would see the index move higher as well. When would this happen? Your guess is as good as mine. Bear in mind that the index could weaken to retest its trendline support as well and this could happen if volume or price weakens, or both.

Informed by FA, I would simply accumulate on weakness. This was something written by OCBC Research a couple of months ago:

The industrial sector typically lags the office sector by a few quarters. With the upbeat momentum in the office space, Industrial REITs stand to capitalise on the spillovers to business parks, high-tech and light industrial buildings. In terms of forward yields, Industrial REITs also trade at a premium of 70 basis points to the broader sector. We are bullish on the industrial sector recovery and now have an OVERWEIGHT rating for the Industrial REITs subsector. 

Related post:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 21c at XD.

CapitaMalls Asia: Testing resistance.

Although volume was lower than the previous session, price managed to overcome both resistance levels at $1.88 and $1.90. We could see the resistance provided by the descending 50dMA at $1.93 challenged next. Indeed, it could be argued at price is now at resistance provided by a trendline resistance at $1.92. Overcoming this resistance could see a retest of $1.97, the high of 17 Jan.

The RSI has broken out of 50% and is rising higher while the MFI is now testing 50% as resistance. So, initial observation suggests that although buying momentum is recovering, demand is not very strong. This is a fragile condition which could see things go either way. However, drawing a trendline support yields a very interesting picture. The MFI's uptrend is actually intact!

That $1.83 is now a support of some strength is indisputable. Market participants would remember it as the support which did not break. If this were to be tested once more, I am willing to bet that more buyers would emerge. So, although the longer term MAs are still in decline, the gently rising 20dMA tells a story of possible reversal. Although I am not adding to my long position, I am not a seller either.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Support at $1.83.

CapitaMalls Asia: Support at $1.83.

CapitaMalls Asia gapped down, tested $1.83 support today and bounced off to close unchanged at $1.87. Although volume is pretty decent, it is lower than the previous session which was a black candle day.  The intra-day high of $1.88 was a many times tested support earlier this month and even if it should be taken out, the next resistance at $1.90 was also a many times tested support. This counter will have to climb a wall of worries, indeed, as supports are now resistance.

Although fundamentally strong, this counter remains technically weak as the MACD has just completed a bearish crossover with the signal line in negative territory. The MFI has also broken the 50% support to trend lower while the RSI is now resisted by the 50% line. Breaking resistance at $1.88 and $1.90 on high volume would give the counter a chance to retest resistance provided by the descending 50dMA.

Since breaking its nascent uptrend after breaking out of its multi-month downtrend, things are looking iffy. I am not adding to my long position until the technicals show that the uptrend is recaptured or a new one is formed.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Black hammer day.

Golden Agriculture: Resistance at 100dMA.

Golden Agriculture enjoyed a white candle day as price traded below the resistance provided by the 100dMA for most of the day. This white candle could be most misleading. In the previous session, although a black candle was formed, price closed at the 100dMA which acted as support.

So, am I saying that the share price would continue its fall in the next session? There is a good chance of this. However, due to the very steep fall in price in recent weeks, we could see the price moving higher to touch the trendline resistance which should be in the region of 73c in the next session or two.

TA is not about having a crystal ball and knowing exactly what would happen but TA is useful in that we would know exactly what to do if something happened.  So, in case price moved higher to 73c, I would reduce my long position. In case price moved lower, I would wait for it to go closer to the 200dMA at 63c before adding to my long position. That's my plan.

Related post:
Golden Agriculture: Testing 100dMA support.

STI off 1.3%; 3,090 worst case consolidation - DBS Vickers.

It adds, “equities remain one of the more attractive investment asset classes...in addition, the STI is not that far away from levels seen as attractive and where firm support lies.”

Monday, 31 January 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Raffles Education: Correction?

The fanfare that pushed up the share price of Raffles Education to touch a many months high of 35c came suddenly and provided the counter with a sugar rush which is now dissipating. The trendline support was broken four sessions ago and it now remains to be seen if the gentler trendline support below the 20dMA would be tested next. This is at 30c.

If I were to hazard a guess, 30c is likely to be a strong support as that is the price which formed the top of a small bowl before a breakout took place. Market participants would remember the price: not buying then led to missing out on a nice gain in the following sessions.

The MFI and the RSI show that the overbought condition has been corrected. The RSI is actually declining towards 50% and it would be interesting to see if 50% would act as support. The MFI which takes into consideration volume on top of price has flatlined just below the overbought region. This suggests that demand, although weaker, is still strong. Look at the trading volume and we see a semblance of a low volume pull back taking place. Buy more?

For anyone who wants to go long on this counter, being patient and waiting to buy some at supports in an uptrend is a good idea. I never like chasing. I rather like waiting for things to come to me.

Related post:
Raffles Education: A new property play?

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 21c at XD.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT went XD today. Price closed at 21c but if we look at the trade summary, 6,459 lots were bought up at 21.5c while only 197 lots were sold down at 21c. I believe that support is strong for this counter at 21c. Remember that 21c is also where we find the rising 200dMA, a longer term MA.

There is nothing fundamentally wrong with this REIT and I will accumulate on weakness. For now, I look forward to receiving the income distribution on 15 March 2010.

Related post:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 3QFY2011.

Singapore’s Straits Times Index dropped 1.6% to 3,179.72 at the close of trading, erasing this year’s advance. The gauge fell 0.3% this month. All but three stocks in the benchmark index of 30 companies fell.
Monday, 31 January 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

ASSI 2010 Annual Report.

I am somewhat late in doing this. Somehow, it slipped my mind. Someone reminded me and, well, this is the report of how my blog did last year as promised.

Page loads, unique visitors and returning visitors all formed new records in the month of December 2010. The numbers in the chart are kind of small as this is a full year report. Let's see:

Page Loads: 
52,493 (92.87% increase from January 2010)

Unique visitors: 
32,169 (166.98% increase from January 2010)

Returning visitors: 
15,643 (175.89% increase from January 2010)

I think there are many who would come in to check on what are my latest thoughts on a daily basis which probably explains the 175.89% increase in returning visitors as well as the more modest 92.87% increase in page loads. Most are regular readers who would probably have read my older posts.

Although I am sure my blog would never be as popular as Xiaxue's or Mr. Brown's, that the number of unique visitors increased 166.98% from January to December 2010 is very encouraging. 32,169 unique visitors in December means there were more than 1,000 unique visitors per day on average.

I have said this before but no matter how many times I say it, it would never be enough: I have no doubt that I have some very loyal readers who are spreading the word.  Your support is encouraging and you can bet that I will continue blogging!  Thank you. :)

Tea with AK71: First cheque from AdSense.

Not long after I started this blog in December 2009, I signed up with Google AdSense to serve ads in the hope of making some pocket money on the side. A few months later, I took down all the ad spaces. This was after hearing rather negative stuff about bloggers being "banned" with little chance of being reinstated. I didn't want to have the same experience. Could be quite depressing, I thought.

However, a couple of months ago, while chatting with a fellow blogger, I was advised to just put up the ad spaces for AdSense again and if I did get banned, then, too bad for me. If I got paid, it would be a bonus. Mentally prepared thus, I ventured forth with AdSense once more.

Today, as I was sorting through four days worth of mail, I found a cheque from Adsense! My first cheque from AdSense! It added some cheer to a wet Sunday. :)

Tea with AK71: What does a bundle of new notes look like?

What does a bundle of new notes look like? More specifically, what does a bundle of new S$2 notes worth a total of S$2,000 look like? Here are a few photos taken from different angles:

It was my first time seeing notes wrapped up in "MAS" plastic shrink wrap. Very official looking.

OK, how did it feel like? Felt like a brick, a heavy one too.

Maybe, I am just a mountain tortoise. ;-p

Tea with AK71: Something from Hong Kong.

This is really funny. Took it off an English newspaper in Hong Kong. Didn't Wikileaks reveal that MM Lee said something about Kim Jong Il being attention seeking or something? ;-p

Golden Agriculture: Testing 100dMA support.

Back in Singapore. So nice to be back home! Although I am still feeling a bit unwell from the trip, I am sure I will be OK after a day or two. If I had stayed another day or two in Hong Kong, I would have been utterly miserable. It's the weather, I'm sure. I will have a blog post on this trip in my Travel Photos and Videos blog later this evening or tomorrow. Look out for it. ;)

A week ago, I said that "We could very well see the support provided by the 100dMA tested at 70c in the next session. If it should break, next support could be found at 66c where the rising 200dEMA would be approximating soon. The 200dEMA, being a long term MA, should be able to provide a much stronger support in case of further decline in price."

Well, price did not test the 100dMA in the following session but it did yesterday. In TA, it is hard to have exactitude but if we could get rough estimates right, that's not bad. OBV has gone lower which suggests continuing distribution. The 20dMA is about to complete a dead cross with the 50dMA. All eyes are now on the 100dMA and whether it could hold up as support. If it breaks, price could sink to 63c, the support provided by the flattening 200dMA. I might add to my long position then.

Related post:
Golden Agriculture.

CapitaMalls Asia: Black hammer day.

Feeling somewhat under the weather, I think the very cold and dry weather here is getting to me. No drinking session for me. I came back to the hotel, took a warm shower, drank herbal tea I bought from a convenience store and I am feeling so sleepy now. Looking forward to going back to tropical Singapore early tomorrow.

In a quick post last evening, I mentioned that CapitaMalls Asia's share price "closed below the trendline support today at $1.89. I would not advise buying more at this price since the uptrend is compromised. I have turned cautious."

If I were not informed by TA, I could have bought more as price plunged today. Look at the high volume. I believe that the price weakness has brought out some shortists.

I received emails and comments regarding this counter. It is interesting that the counter is generating so much interest. To me, it is clear that many market participants are keeping an eye on the counter and waiting for clearer signs to go long here. Fundamentally, it is a strong company and technical weakness would offer opportunities for investors.

So, what am I doing here? Like I said, I have turned cautious and I am not adding to my position. I am waiting to see if the low of $1.83 would hold up as support. If it does hold up as support, I could add to my position. If $1.83 breaks, I would wait to see where is the next low.

Is there a chance of a reversal in the next session? A black hammer formed today as price gapped down at $1.88, touched a low of $1.85 before closing at $1.87. The bears won the day but the candlestick suggests some fierce fighting back by the bulls. So, although the black candle was formed on the back of much higher volume, there is some support.

Even if we know that a company has good fundamentals, waiting for the technicals to give clearer signs before going long is the way to go.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Closed at $1.89.

CapitaMalls Asia: Closed at $1.89.

Price closed below the trendline support today at $1.89. I would not advise buying more at this price since the uptrend is compromised. I have turned cautious. However, notice that the trading volume is, once again, very thin on a black candle day. It looks to me to be a continuation of a low volume pull back pattern.

Does low volume mean that price could not weaken further? Definitely not but if we look at the OBV, it is obvious that there isn't any distribution activity. In fact, if you ask me, the OBV has gone up slightly in the last 4 sessions which suggests mild accumulation. This is consistent with what I said in my last blog post that there are bargain hunters out there who are waiting to buy at lower prices.

So, what am I looking out for now? The previous low was at $1.87. This was formed earlier this month. Will price form a higher low at $1.89 and recapture the uptrend later on? Of course, we might have to draw a gentler trendline support too. Or will the price go down further to test $1.83? No one has the answer but with the very low volumes as price pulled back, I do not think there would be any drastic sell downs in the near future. I would wait for the situation to become clearer before making my next move.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Doji at $1.91.

SoundGlobal: The former E-pure.

I was vested in E-pure when it was 20c a share thereabouts. This was back in early 2009. 

I was convinced that China's drive to keep its economy humming in the wake of the Lehman Brothers crisis would benefit the water infrastructure businesses. 





I was also heavily vested in Hyflux Water Trust at that time from 30c for the same reason.  

Read related blog post here.

E-pure was a Chinese company and was likely to be favored over Hyflux in China while Hyflux Water Trust was a business trust with zero gearing treating water for Chinese industrial estates and had a yield of about 17% at a unit price of 30c. 





I divested E-pure completely by the time it neared 60c a share and watched dumbfounded as the share price went on to form new highs, almost doubling from my sell price of close to 60c. 

Hyflux Water Trust was, of course, privatised a few months ago. 

Read related blog post here.





I have been wondering if I should re-invest in E-pure which has been renamed SoundGlobal for some time now. 

It remained on my watchlist but I simply refused to buy any of its shares at prices higher than 60c. 

That's just the memory effect working and, in this case, it seems to have paid off. Related post here.





I just told myself that if the price did not come down to more reasonable levels, there are always other investments out there.

Since hitting a high of $1.04 on 7 April 2010, this counter has not formed a higher high. It is currently hugging the lower Bollinger band as it fast approaches the lows of early September 2010 at 70c a share. 

The obvious difference is that the low of early September 2010 was part of a bottoming process and the MACD was getting ready for a bullish crossover with the signal line. 





The MACD is now declining rapidly in negative territory as its distance with the signal line widens. This is very bearish.

Having said this, both the MFI and RSI are in oversold territories and 70c, being a low that was the price of a successful bottoming process could provide some support. 

Whether it would hold up is another question. I would not speculate on the strength of the support here.





When to accumulate? 

We want to look out for possible positive divergence between price and the momentum oscillators or volume. 

We want to look out for the downtrend halting and clearer signs that price is breaking out of downtrend. 

I like to use Fibo lines in such an instance to see how low price could go in case support breaks. Support is, of course, at 70c. 





Looking at the chart, the three golden ratios are at 62c, 59.5c and 57c. Buy some at those levels? 

I might if the other signs are encouraging.