AK71 is on vacation!

In my last blog post, I mentioned that I had to catch a very early flight this morning and had to sleep early. Well, sleeping early is something very difficult for me and I didn't sleep very well last night.  If you are wondering what am I doing catching an early flight today, I am on vacation! Yes, finally!

I just woke up from a short nap and got connected to the internet a while ago. I have checked the stock market and saw, wow, a sea of red! It seems that the unrest in the Middle East and North Africa is shaking the global stock markets. I see prices of gold and silver climbing higher even as equities retreated.

This could be one of those opportunities to load up on counters with sound fundamentals. It could be a chance to make some value buys. This is the investor in me talking. However, the trader in me says that things could go lower and that we should wait to see supports holding up before increasing our long exposure. This is only sensible, is it not?

Which are the counters I am eyeing? Quite a few and here are three I am thinking of loading:

1. CapitaMalls Asia: Reversal signal failed to be confirmed, similar to most other counters' reversal signals. Keep an eye on the $1.83 support. See my earlier blog posts for more information.

2. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 20.5c is holding up nicely as of now. I would probably put in a buy order tomorrow at 20.5c. Would definitely buy more at 20c, if ever tested. See my earlier blog posts for more information.

3. Cache Logistics Trust: I have been waiting for another chance to start a long position in this REIT. Touching 93.5c today, I might just be given a chance to buy a bid or two lower. See my earlier blog posts for more information.

Although I have internet connection in the hotel, I just realised that they use a different type of electrical plug from Singapore. I will have to see if I can get an adapter from a hardware store or supermarket. If I cannot find an adapter, you might not see me blogging for a while as my notebook's battery is running low on power.

Also, as I am on vacation, I might be somewhat lazy. It is only natural, isn't it? ;)

So, don't be surprised to see one liners or nothing at all. Hahaha... A vacation is a most uplifting must do for working adults. Despite a sea of red in the stock market, I am actually feeling quite happy. It could also be that most of my investment portfolio is for income. So, I am not so affected by the market weakness since capital appreciation is a secondary objective for me.

Till the next blog post, good luck to one and all. :)

CapitaMalls Asia: Morning doji star?

You might notice that many charts are spotting reversal signals today which are in need of confirmation. After so many days of down action, many counters seem ready for a rebound. Of course, signals will always need confirmation.

Regular readers would remember that I said I would wait to see if the $1.83 support for this counter would be retested. If the support held up upon retest, I might increase my exposure to the counter. Today, I increased the weight of my long position at $1.86. Why?

1. A lack of selling pressure as exemplified by the low volume.

2. The formation of a doji which is a potential reversal signal.

3. An uptick in the MFI and RSI which suggests some underlying support.

Taking point number 2 further, we could be seeing the first two candles in a three candles reversal pattern which is known as the Morning Doji Star. If price opens higher tomorrow and forms a white candle that ends the day at $1.90 or higher, the set up would be perfect. This set up usually signals a reversal from a downtrend.

Like I said before, TA is useful in giving us glimpses of what might be and not what would be. So, always be prepared for two scenarios.

If price goes up, what do we do? If we connect the highs of 9 Feb and 17 Feb, we get a trendline resistance. On the weekly chart, the resistance shows up as $1.92. On the daily chart, the resistance could be at $1.93 to $1.94. So, in a downtrend, sell at resistance. What about retaining some shares to see if there is a chance of price retesting the 100dMA as resistance as it did on 9 Feb? Why not? This would approximate $2.00 this week and coincides with the upper Bollinger band on the daily chart.

What if price did not go up and went down instead? In such an instance, I would wait to see if $1.83 would be retested as support and if it held up upon retest, I would buy more.

That's all, folks. I have a very early flight to catch tomorrow and I am going to try to sleep earlier. So, this is the only blog post for tonight. Good luck and good fortune.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Support at $1.88 gave way.

At what age to start investing in the stock market?

A blog post at Bully the Bear has generated much interest and discussion: The youth and the stock market.

Although I have some ideas of my own, I was feeling lazy and didn't want to comment but a cboxer, Evolution of the "lobster taller than small girl , ak's t shirt older than evo" fame, put me in the hot seat and asked "Ak , whats ur view on LP's new post".

I said that I have introduced my 9 year old niece to investing in the stock market. Yes, she is in primary 3 this year. She has some savings in the bank which is paid a paltry sum of interest. 0.2% per annum for young savers? Maybe it is more, I am not very sure but still paltry.

Anyway, she has some shares in SPH for more than a year now bought using my account and she has collected one year's worth of dividends. It is quite a lot of money for a 9 year old and she's happy with the dividends, needless to say.

Getting dividends from investing in SPH has demonstrated to my niece the power of delayed gratification. 

By not using her savings on things she wants to buy and by investing for income, she is able to use the passive income to buy the things she wants later on without touching her savings at all. 

I heard from my sister that my niece is very frugal these days and I heard from my mom that my niece would sometimes ask her what's the latest share price of SPH.

Sound ideas in personal finance and investment, I believe, should be taught to children as soon as they are able to understand them. Teaching them the importance of thrift and savings is but the first step. How to make their savings work harder? 

Now, that's a big second step.

I remember how I would save all my pocket money when I was a boy in order to buy the toys I wanted. 

If only I had someone to tell me I should save all my money and how to make my money work harder for me then.

Related posts:
1. Teaching young children financial literacy.
2. Little book that beats the market.

Tea with AK71: Mahjong RubiksCube.

I had lunch with an old friend whom I have known for more than 20 years. As we grow older, we grow more sentimental, perhaps. After lunch, I decided to walk into a shop selling comics and knick knacks. It is a shop I enjoyed going to frequently in my younger days. Just when I thought there's nothing interesting enough for me to buy, this caught my eyes!

The RubiksCube was first introduced when I was in primary school, I think. See how it has evolved? Amazing! My friend opened his, I scrambled it up and he tried to put it back together again. It is much more difficult compared to the old cube with solid colors.

We have to make sure that the 6 sides each has the correct family of symbols AND the symbols have to be in sequence if numbers are involved (as in the TONG ZI, WAN ZI and TIAO ZI) AND the right side up (this applies to all sides, the other three sides being HONG ZHONG, BAI BAN and FA CAI)! Wah!

A small detail on the packaging caught my eyes too. Why does one say for ages 3 to adult and another, ages 8 to adult? Hmmm... Maybe, I am not smart enough to comprehend this. Made in China, where else? ;p

Tea with AK71: $1.20 Ice Kachang.

Recently, while chatting in LP's cbox, Isaac mentioned Ice Kachang at some food centre priced at $1.50 a bowl. Some said that's cheap and that Ice Kachang costs $2.00 or $2.50 these days. Really?

I said I like the Ice Kachang at Tiong Bahru Market.  It is only $1.20 a bowl! Where to find? Tian Tian Yuan Dessert Garden, Tiong Bahru Market. Haha.. I went there for a bowl of the said Ice Kachang this evening and took some photos with my trusty Samsung phone camera:

I like Tiong Bahru Market. It is bright, airy and clean. You get a glimpse of the market here in the background:

These are photos of the Ice Kachang after I have mixed it up. Some would eat up all the ice first but I can't do it. I would get severe brain freeze!

How many attap chee? Three! Quite generous, I feel. Of course, lots of corn and lots of chendol as well!

Feel like having an inexpensive dessert, Singapore style? You know where to go. :)

Courage Marine: A dividend of 0.71c per share.

On 18 January, Courage Marine gapped up as it opened at 22c. My overnight sell queue was filled as I reduced my exposure to the counter by half. At the time, I said "The BDI has already broken the previous low and it is yet unclear where the next low would be but with greater increase in bulk shipping capacity in the near future, upside could be limited as supply outstrips demand." Recently, the BDI has found another low and has turned up:

In its press release, Courage Marine's management said that "Based on the report from Deutsche Bank on Feb 9, 2011, the BDI may experience a possible turnaround from current low level and is expected to return to normal in 1 to 2 months’ time." I expect normal to mean 2,500 or so but that would still be a lower high. The future for bulk carriers looks difficult indeed if this were the case.

I also said that "I would hold on to see if price could go higher either through further developments in its plan to dual list in Hong Kong or through a possibly generous dividend payout." Well, a dividend of 0.71c per share has been declared. Not too spectacular although it represents a dividend payout ratio of 83% based on the net profit after tax.

What would I do now? Sell into strength, if the opportunity presents itself.

See press release here.

Related posts:
Courage Marine: Dual listing.
Courage Marine: Retreating to support.

CapitaMalls Asia: Support at $1.88 gave way.

The immediate support at $1.88 gave way today as price closed at $1.87. I have a faint suspicion that on top of a lack of buying interest, there were also people who did not want to hold on to a long position over the weekend. Whatever it could be, price weakness was on the back of similar volume as the session before. A sell down without heavy volume but a sell down nonetheless.

The MACD has completed a bearish crossover with the signal line and dipped into negative territory. The MFI and RSI both dipped below 50%. My long positions taken at $1.92 and $1.88 are underwater. A retest of the low of $1.83 is not improbable. What would I do? Add to my position?

I would add to my position only if the support at $1.83 holds up . If that support breaks, using a few sets of Fibo lines, the next major support could be at $1.70 and that is some way to fall.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Full year FY2010 results.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial Trust: Weekly chart.

I am going to plant some nightmarish thoughts in your head about AIMS AMP Capital Industrial Trust's unit price. Anyone who has been following my blog would know that I like this REIT for its high yield and how I think that risks are minimal what with the management refinancing at lower interest rates of 2.1+% and having no loans due until 2014. Even with the latest acquisition and share placement, the REIT's numbers remain healthy and I have estimated a mildly diluted DPU of 2c. At 21.5c, that is a distribution yield of 9.3%. Also, remember that this DPU is estimated based on managment distributing 97% of the REIT's distributable income against some other REITs which distribute 100% of their distributable income. OK, sounds good. Where is the nightmarish thought?

Look at the weekly chart. See the black candle formed this week and on much higher volume to boot? See how the MACD plunges towards zero and how the MFI is already in oversold territory? The OBV and RSI have similar bearish stories to tell.

On 15 Feb, I said that "I, however, am not entertaining any grand delusions that price might not weaken further once the counter goes XD. Using Fibo lines gives us a clue as to where the supports would be next. 20.5c is where we find 123.6% and 20c is where we find 138.2% as well as 150% (which is at 19.8c). As both 38.2% and 50% are golden ratios, I expect 20c to be a very strong support level if ever tested." Well, I am happy to report that the 21c has been holding up admirably and I still believe that my decision to buy in at 21c was right. The purchase would also be entitled to an advanced DPU of 0.285c.

So, would price weaken next week? I truly do not know but the possibility exists. The next distribution in June would probably see a DPU of 0.215c (0.5c - 0.285c) at the most although I suspect that it would be lesser as the income contribution from Northtech would take some time to kick in. So, with 11% more units in issue from the placement and if contribution from Northtech would not kick in till the next quarter, I expect the DPU in June could be 0.215/111 x100 = 0.1937c. Not very attractive? A reason for selling? Perhaps.

As I am investing in this REIT for income for the longer term, believing that its attractive yield is sustainable, I am not shaken by any short term fluctuations. If unit price were to test 20.5c or 20c, I am buying more.

Related post:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Oversold.

Golden Agriculture: 200dEMA shattered.

This is a daily chart using the 200dEMA. The support provided at 66c didn't stand a chance and was shattered. Closing on high volume at 65c, the 200dMA at 63.5c could be tested next. If that breaks, we could see this counter's share price diving. Where would be the supports then? 

One look at the chart suggests that supports could be found at 61c and 58.5c.  58.5c? Yes, that was where Golden Agriculture gapped up on 11 Oct 2010 and that gap could be covered eventually. Sounds horrifying for people who went long near the top? You bet.

What would I do if I were in their shoes? Well, prices go down a river of hope. Rarely do they go down in a straight line. There would probably be rebounds and when these happen, former supports would become resistance. Selling at resistance in a downtrend is the thing to do.

In the meantime, I will continue waiting for clearer signs of a reversal, if any.

Related post:
Golden Agriculture: In full retreat.

Golden Agri off 3.0% in heavy volume, falling for the seventh straight session and taking its year-to-date loss to 18.8%. ; CPO price fall
Friday, 18 February 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

CapitaMalls Asia: Full year FY2010 results.

A good set of numbers overall. Anything negative? Well, judging by the less than enthusiastic response from market participants, the proposed dividend of 2c per share probably failed to impress.

Although the share price of CapitaMalls Asia has been relatively resilient compared to other counters in the STI in the recent sell down, the outflow of funds from emerging markets is probably a dampener on its performance too. I received the following in my mailbox today:

For YTD 9-Feb-2011 there was a funds outflow of US$ 4.7 billion from Emerging Markets (China – US$ 2.19 bn; India – US$ 0.98 bn), with China and India accounting for 67% of the total funds outflow. The USA was the main beneficiary with net inflow of US$ 23.61 bn. [Source: EPFR Global, Data as at 9-Feb-2011].


The presentation slides are comprehensive and what I like about them the most is the candid manner in which the management shared the lessons learned from their 1st generation through 3rd generation malls in China. Although CapitaMalls Asia has malls in Singapore, Malaysia, India and Japan too, the largest market would still be in China eventually and they plan to have as many as 100 malls in China within the next 3 to 5 years.  Already 5 more malls would be completed in 2011. The management is now able to replicate their successful model in other parts of China quickly and reap returns at a faster pace.

See presentation slides here.

What about the technicals?  One look at the candlesticks and we would get the shivers. A bearish engulfing candle. Not good. However, notice the very long lower wick? This suggests some bullish buying which helped to push the counter to close at $1.92 which is where we find the 50dMA. It does not, however, change the fact that the bears have won the day.

I next look at the momentum oscillators.  The MACD's uptrend is still intact and it is still in positive territory although it does look like it could be making a bearish crossover with the signal line soon. The MFI and RSI have both turned down and are testing 50% as support. The mild upward bias of the MFI since the low of 31 Jan suggests that there is some demand and support for the counter.

What would I do? If price were to move higher, market participants who were waiting to sell at $2.00 like I was would sell into strength and, very likely, resistance such as $1.98 would become tougher to crack. Basically, a lowering of expectations would make lower resistance levels stronger. Of course, if these were to break, price could fly. I would set my sell orders at resistance. No surprises there.

What if the price moved lower which could very well happen? Taking a peek at the weekly chart, the MACD is still in negative territory but it is on the verge of forming a bullish crossover with the signal line. The MFI and RSI have both risen out of their oversold territories. Having said this, it is amply clear that the longer term downtrend is still intact. $1.83 could just be a floor.

There is one session left tomorrow before the weekly chart is complete but if price were to retest $1.83 successfully a second time round, I would expect strong buying interest from market participants.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Buy signal.

Golden Agriculture: In full retreat.

I last blogged about Golden Agriculture on 31 January and I mentioned that "TA is not about having a crystal ball and knowing exactly what would happen but TA is useful in that we would know exactly what to do if something happened.  So, in case price moved higher to 73c, I would reduce my long position. In case price moved lower, I would wait for it to go closer to the 200dMA at 63c before adding to my long position. That's my plan."

The counter's share price did move higher in subsequent days to test the trendline resistance and even whipsawed out to touch a high of 75c before retreating once more. Have you reduced your long position?

When to go long again? Well, if you believe that the outflow of funds from the emerging markets to developed markets is a temporary phenomenon and if you believe that crude palm oil will cost more in 2011, buying into Golden Agriculture at lower levels makes sense.  The 200dMA is now at 63.5c while the 200dEMA which gives greater weightage to more recent prices is at 66c. I could tiptoe into the stock then.

Tiptoe? As the overall technical picture is still rather bearish with the formation of a lower high as well as a most certain lower low, any long position without a definite picture of positive divergence is a hedge at best.

Related post:
Golden Agriculture: Resistance at 100dMA.

Tea with AK71: My Samsung mobile phone.

I have shared on my blogs some photos taken with my trusty Samsung mobile phone camera. Some readers have asked me for the model number of my phone as they would like to get one too. I looked but there is no model number stated on the phone. It just says "5.0 Mega Autofocus" on the back.

How did I get this phone? Well, my sister was wondering what to get for my birthday in 2009 when I suggested that she get a free phone from her telco when she re-contracted that year. That phone was my birthday present.

For those who are still interested in getting the same phone I have, here are some photos of the phone. I borrowed a digi cam to take these. I hope these photos help in your search. Waiting for a white color iPhone4? My phone is white too!

Oh, the picture of the back of the phone has a piece of paper which was intentionally placed there to block a sticker on the phone. My little secret. ;-)

Tea with AK71: Powered by nature.

These are structures placed directly at the MBLM exit fronting Marina Bay on the ground level:

A wind powered sculpture that lights up at night. This is really beautiful and I should take a picture of it at night next time.

Solar powered fans in stylish shelters. A really cool idea!

I am always happy to see efforts at generating clean energy. I guess we must not lose hope.

LMIR: 4Q FY2010 results.

I could take my last blog post on LMIR, substitute some numbers and that's the end of it. There is really nothing exciting or new to say about this REIT. It also continues to disappoint in its lacklustre distributable income. Let's give it a try. See changes in bold dark blue color:

Distributable income at $12.029 million. DPU at 1.11c is higher than the 1.09c in the last quarter. This represents a marginal increase of 1.8% over the previous quarter.

Unfortunately, the management lost $2.3m in foreign exchange forward contracts. Without these contracts, the distributable income would increase by 19.18%!

OK, that was easy. Some numbers:

Gearing: 10.3%
NAV/share: 83c
DPU for FY2010: 4.44c

It is interesting how the management left out the DPU for FY2009 in its presentation slides which was 5.04c and that happened on the back of much lower revenue of $85.758m. Gross revenue bumped up 50.9% in FY2010 and yet the DPU reduced by 12%. Am I missing something here? Great potential but a poor management? A rhetorical question, perhaps.

Borrowing the words of OCBC Research:
The manager attributed (the falling income distributions, year on year) to the appreciation in the IDR, which has caused the gap between the hedged rate on distributions and the physical rate to reverse unfavorably...

Still, it is a rather safe investment for anyone who is investing for income. This is its only redeeming quality.

Read announcements:
Unaudited financial statements.
Presentation slides.

Related post:
LMIR: Foreign exchange forward contracts.

CapitaMalls Asia: Buy signal.

CapitaMalls Asia has a buy signal on the MACD histogram. A white candle without an upper wick was formed today on slightly higher volume as price closed at $1.96 and this has a bullish tone.

The MACD has been forming higher highs and is rising in positive territory. The MFI has formed a higher low as it broke resistance at 50% to move higher. Since 17 Dec 2010, the OBV has been moving higher although in a choppy manner. So, there is continual accumulation.

The 20dMA at $1.93 is resistance turned support and we could see price move higher.  Immediate resistance is at $2.00 which is where we find the upper Bollinger band and $2.03 which is defined by the third downtrend resistance line drawn from the high formed on 6 Oct 2010.

Breaking $2.03 on high volume could see the counter moving higher but bearing in mind that the longer term downtrend is still intact, I would rather err on the side of caution and divest most of my long position at resistance levels identified. Where is the longer term downtrend resistance line now? At approximately $2.14.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Moving higher?

Raffles Education: Doji at 28c.

That selling pressure has eased is quite obvious. The MFI has turned up somewhat when it looked as if it was destined to fall into oversold territory. The RSI is rising just a tad in oversold territory. The MACD is just into negative territory and things are looking too marginal to say momentum has turned negative at the moment. Is there a chance of a rebound?

Believe it or not, the uptrend for Raffles Education which started on 21 Dec 2010 is still intact. The trendline support is rising towards 27.5c which is the low today and it would soon reach 28c in the next week. So, what does conventional wisdom say? Buy at supports in an uptrend.

It could also be said that price has been retreating on declining volume and that the doji formed today on relatively low volume is a possible reversal signal. All good but we will need confirmation tomorrow. That's the way of TA. Always needs confirmation.

What would AK71 do? Nothing. Why? Well, the declining 200dMA is at 29c or so. That could become quite a strong resistance given the bearish sentiments with China possibly increasing interest rates again soon to weaken inflationary pressures. Raffles Education's ambition of becoming a real estate developer in China could be a victim of bad timing.

When in doubt, I stay out.

Related post:
Raffles Education: Support at 30c.

NOL: Return to profit.

NOL reported a return to profit which beats analysts' estimates and declared a dividend of 4.6c per share!  Good news for shareholders, indeed!

Technically, the flat 200dMA is providing support and we could see price going higher tomorrow. I expect initial resistance at $2.18 which is where we find the rising 100dMA. Stronger resistance is expected at $2.23 which is where we find the 50dMA and it is also where a dead cross was formed by the declining 20dMA and the 50dMA.

Expect some selling into strength to take place as the MFI has been forming lower highs. This suggests a dampening of demand. Watch those resistance levels. If they should be taken out on the back of high volume, then, price could go higher. $2.30 would be next.

Neptune Orient reports better-than-estimated profit on trade
Wednesday, 16 February 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

NOL swings back to black with fourth quarter net earnings at US$177 million. That compared to a US$211 million loss in the same period a year ago.
Wednesday, 16 February 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Related post:
NOL: Full steam ahead.