CapitaMalls Asia: More upside after gap cover?

Some may wonder why CapitaMalls Asia seems to be suffering from malaise even as Capitaland's share price recovered almost 3% today. A quick look at the chart and the answer is obvious. Gap resistance is found at $1.75 and the counter closed the gap today. What now?

The MACD histogram has turned green. With the MACD still in negative territory, a green histogram probably indicates a short term bullish bias. The MFI has dipped into oversold territory while the RSI is upturning in oversold territory. Even if the price does not recover in a hurry, the technicals hint that any downside could be limited for now.

Immediate support has been established at $1.69, the low of 28 Feb while immediate resistance remains at $1.75, beyond which, resistance could be found at $1.83 (a twice tested support turned resistance) and $1.88 (downtrend resistance and declining 20dMA).

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Another failed reversal signal.

Golden Agriculture: A one day gain of 7 to 9.4%.

The STI experienced a nice up day as it closed 1.9% higher at 3,067.60. Golden Agriculture closed higher as well, breaking the immediate resistance of 68.5c, touching a high of 71c before closing at 70.5c.

I have closed my long position bought at 64c yesterday at 68.5c and 70c today, locking in a one day gain of 7% and 9.4% respectively. For those who have yet to close their positions, the next resistance levels are at 72c (100dMA) and 73.5c (50dMA). Having broken out of the downtrend which started on 4 Jan on the back of a high volume white candle day, there is a chance that price could go higher. Then, why did I choose to close my position?

A one day gain of 7% to 9.4%, risk free, is good enough for me. There could be another 2 or 3c gain from here but the risk is definitely higher now. 68.5c is also a natural price level for partial divestment as it approximates the position of the downtrend resistance, on top of being the price where we find the 20dMA.

A look at the weekly chart shows that 72c is likely to be a strong resistance. Notice also how the MFI and RSI are forming lower highs and lower lows. We could be experiencing a very strong rebound and when the energy is spent, price is probably heading lower.

STI increases 1.9% to 3,067.60 at closing. Golden Agri Resources surged 8.5% to 70.5 cents. UOB-Kay Hian Holdings raised its rating to “hold” from “sell,” while HSBC maintained its “overweight” recommendation and cut its share-price forecast to 81 cents from 90 cents.
Tuesday, 01 March 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Related post:

Golden Agriculture: Stellar FY2010 results.

SoundGlobal: Sound the alarm?

On 27 Jan, I blogged about SoundGlobal and how I was, once upon a time, an investor in the company, when it was known as E-pure. I concluded that blog post by saying "I like to use Fibo lines in such an instance to see how low price could go in case support breaks. Support is, of course, at 70c. Looking at the chart, the three golden ratios are at 62c, 59.5c and 57c. Buy some at those levels? I might if the other signs are encouraging."

The counter closed at 61c today as price hugged the lower Bollinger. ADX has been rising sharply as the negative DI continues higher. More weakness is probable.

However, in case of a rebound, expect gap resistance at 67.5c and support turned resistance at 71c.

Fundamentally, the company's full year results announced today might have disappointed although a 1c dividend was declared.

Year on year, profit increased a mere 2.3% although revenue increased 36.5% and gross profit increased 42.8%. Expenses and income tax shot through the roof.

EPS: RMB 8.4c (Errata: RMB 22.4c)
NAV/share: RMB 149.5c

See announcement here.

So, will I buy at 61c? I think it is still pretty pricey with a PE of about 36x (Errata: 14.5x). I might still be suffering from the memory effect and 61c is just not an attractive price for me to go long on this counter again.

Errata: Made a mistake as I took in only Q4's EPS. At 14.5x, it doesn't look so pricey anymore.

Related post:
SoundGlobal: The former E-pure.

CapitaMalls Asia: Another failed reversal signal.

The Bullish Harami Cross failed as a reversal signal. Today, price gapped down at $1.73 and went on to touch an intra-day low of $1.69 before closing at $1.72. Very high volume accompanied this black candle day.

On the face of it, the entire picture looks very bearish but the formation of a black hammer suggests that the bulls are fighting back. In fact, the trade summary shows that sell downs and buy ups are almost evenly matched.

In an earlier blog post, I suggested that $1.70 is a strong support and that I would wait to see if this support level holds up before deciding whether to add to my long position. I have added to my long position at $1.71 today as the $1.70 level was tested and held up.

CapitaMall Trust flat; Iluma buy a long term story - UOB KayHian. At an NPI yield of 3.8%, does not look yield accretive to the portfolio NPI yield of 5.6% or the trading yield of 5.3%.
Monday, 28 February 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Another reversal signal.

Golden Agriculture: Stellar FY2010 results.

In my past blog posts on Golden Agriculture, I said that this company is the most leveraged to CPO price and the very strong CPO price in recent months naturally means higher profits for the company. Golden Agriculture reported stellar results for FY2010 today:

Year on year:

1. Revenue increased 53%.

2. Core net profit increased 91% (excluding gain from changes in fair value of biological assets, foreign exchange loss and exceptional items).

3. Net debt/equity ratio at 0.1x.

4. Dividend of 0.77c per share proposed.

5. NAV per share is US56c.

6. EPS is US12c.


See full presentation here.

The after market sell down of almost 10m shares at 65c is somewhat disconcerting. This notwithstanding, the immediate resistance to any continuing upward movement in price is provided by the descending 20dMA which would approximate 68.5c tomorrow. I went in this morning with a small long position at 64c. Let us see how things turn out tomorrow.

Golden Agri Q4 net more than doubles to $1.49b. Its revenue surged 85% to US$1.19 billion from US$643 million in the year-ago period and core profit more than doubled to US$146 million.
Monday, 28 February 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Saizen REIT: Insider moves and divestment of Aistage Ushita Minami.

Catching up on my reading:

1. 21 Feb: Somerset Holdings Limited (SHL) converted 206,800 warrants into new units. 601,600 units held after the change. Mr. Dennis Lam Siu Sun, a director of the REIT, is the beneficial holder of more than 20% of the issued share capital of SHL.

2. 25 Feb: Divestment of Aistage Ushita Minami for a cash consideration of JPY 270,000,000 (S$4.2 million). Location: Hiroshima.  Built in August 2006, comprises 32 residential units and 7 parking lots. Sale price is a premium of approximately 0.7% to valuation.

Golden Agriculture: Immediate price target in a rebound.

On Friday, I mentioned that it is encouraging to see Golden Agriculture going above the 200dMA (currently at 63.5c) and wondered if breaking support earlier was just a whipsaw. So, is it time to go long here?

Well, the downtrend that started on 4 January is still intact. The MACD histogram shows a short term bullish bias. MFI and RSI are both turning up in oversold territories. The ADX is flattening which suggests that the downtrend has weakened although still in force.

If I were to enter for a quick trade, I would buy as close to the 200dMA (63.5c) as possible. In a downtrend, sell at resistance and the immediate resistance would be provided by the 20dMA which approximates the downtrend resistance at 69c. So, there could be a 10% or so upside.

The MACD is still declining in negative territory which suggests that any upward movement in price could just be a rebound. To err on the side of caution is probably prudent.

Related post:
STI up 1.8%: Out of the woods?

CapitaMalls Asia: Another reversal signal.

Many would remember how the charts spotted reversal signals on Monday and how they failed to be confirmed on Tuesday. When reversal signals fail in a downtrend, the bear is strong indeed. With CapitaMalls Asia, it was no exception as a potential Morning Doji Star setup failed to materialise.

I have not really been looking at the charts since starting my vacation which explains the lack of any charts in my recent blog posts. This morning, I looked at CapitaMalls Asia's chart and we have a reversal signal again. It is a Bullish Harami Cross. Remembering that TA simply gives us hints of what could be and not what would be, let us look at the two possible scenarios.

On Wednesday, I asked "Would I sell my loss making investment in the company? Nope. Why? Because I think the selling could be overdone. Look at the weekly chart and you would see a positive divergence between price and the MFI and RSI."  So, if the reversal signal on the daily chart is confirmed next week, it could be a confirmation of the positive divergence on the weekly chart. This is the more exciting of the two scenarios for long holders, of course.

The $1.83 support would have to be recaptured and if this were to happen, there would be resistance at $1.88 next.  Price could go as high as $2.00 which is where we find the 200dMA but the declining 20wMA on the weekly chart will approximate $1.95 next week. So? We could see price touching $2.00 but pulling back to the 20wMA or $1.95 could be strong enough to prevent price from touching $2.00 at all. So, why am I saying all this? Knowing where the different resistance levels are allows me to decide on where to place my sell orders if the reversal does take place.

If the reversal signal failed once again, price could descend to test $1.70 which is a support level based on sets of Fibo lines I drew some time back on 18 Feb. This is the less exciting scenario for long holders. What would I do then? Wait to see that $1.70 holds up before deciding whether to increase exposure.

Time for breakfast and some sun. Have a great Saturday!

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Morning Doji Star.
CapitaMalls Asia: Suppot at $1.88 gave way.

STI up 1.8%: Out of the woods?

The STI closed 1.8% higher and recaptured the 3,000 points support. Whether 3,000 points is now support once more, actually, needs confirmation. It is too early to say that we are out of the woods.

As most of my investments in the stock market are not index linked counters, I am not too bothered by the STI apart from the possible spillover effects it could create.

1. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial Trust: My buy queue at 20c was not filled. I am continuing the buy queue at 20c for next Monday. Although price closed at 20c today, most of the 8,840 lots transacted today were Buy Ups at 20.5c, 6,913 lots to be exact. 20c is a very strong support both technically and fundamentally.

2. Cache Logistics Trust: I am still waiting to buy this at 92.5c. It did touch 92.5c recently but my Buy order was not filled. So, am I going to buy at a higher price? Nope. I will continue to wait at 92.5c since technical weakness is still apparent.

3. CapitaMalls Asia: Closed 1c higher. Technically very weak. See if it captures support at $1.83. The counter closed at $1.77.

4. First REIT: For anyone who is seeking exposure or increasing the weight of his long exposure to this REIT, 72c support has held up and could be a fairly safe entry. However, if 72c breaks, the next support is at 69c. If a possible 3c paper loss is acceptable, why not?

5. Genting SP: Similar to CapitaMalls Asia, this counter must capture its previous support in order to set investors' minds at ease. That would be at $2.00. The counter closed at $1.95.


6. Golden Agriculture: Regained support at 63.5c. This needs confirmation in the next session but it is a shot in the arm for investors. Closing below support recently could just be a whipsaw.

7. Healthway Medical: Closed at 14c which was support. This could now be resistance. Technically and fundamentally weak, I would only go long on this counter for quick trades for now which is what I have done before.



8. Saizen REIT: Buy ups at 16c happening. 15.5c remains a very strong support, technically, and is a fairly safe entry price for any interested investor.

9. ASTI: I increased my long position and I shared this on Twitter yesterday. EPS: 2.6c. NAV: 18c/share. Dividend: 0.7c/share. I bought more at 10c/share. It was my only "update" yesterday in my blog. If you are not following me on Twitter yet, you might want to do so for my short "blogs".

OK, hungry for dinner now after an afternoon nap, recovering from hours on the beach. Have a wonderful weekend! :)

STI climbs 1.8% to 3,025.16 at closing
Friday, 25 February 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

STI soaked in red and AK71's thoughts.

I slept a full 8 hours last night! I also took a 2 hours nap in the afternoon today! Now, I am feeling drowsy from a very good dinner, a good facial treatment and a good massage. Yawn...

OK, a quick one:

1. CapitaMalls Asia: $1.83 support is gone. I remember saying that if this support goes, the next major support is probably at $1.70. $1.83 could be support turned resistance. Would I sell my loss making investment in the company? Nope. Why? Because I think the selling could be overdone. Look at the weekly chart and you would see a positive divergence between price and the MFI and RSI.

2. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: My buy order at 20.5c was filled this morning. I am now in the queue at 20c to buy more if the weakness continues. At 20c, the yield would be 10% per annum.

3. Cache Logistics Trust: Putting in a buy order at 92.5c. Nice chance of getting it filled. This is the lowest geared industrial property trust in Singapore right now, if I remember correctly.

4. First REIT: In an earlier blog post, I said there is probably a better time to increase exposure to this REIT and that price could retreat to 72c. It has done just that today. I am tempted to add to my long position at this price for a 9% yield per annum. However, I would not throw in the kitchen sink. Watch 72c which is supported by the 100dMA. If it goes, the 200dMA is at 69c and that is some way to fall.

5. Saizen REIT: 15.5c is where we find the rising 100wMA.  This is a very long term MA and likely to be a very strong support. For anyone waiting to enter or increase exposure to this REIT, this would be a fairly safe entry price.

6. Golden Agriculture: Breaking support provided by the 200dMA at 63.5c is very bearish. It needs confirmation to see if the 200dMA is now support turned resistance. The momentum oscillators are negative and we could see the 100wMA tested as support if this keeps up. Currently, it is at 54c.

I am having a hard time keeping my eyes from closing. So, that's all for tonight. Good night and good luck. :)