Tea with AK71: iPad 2.

I have been sorely tempted by the iPad and I have been looking at the Samsung Galaxy Tablet.  I am so glad I did not buy either one because the iPad 2 is coming soon! Best of all, it would not cost more than the iPad. It would be at the same price! I can imagine many who are considering a tablet would now wait for the iPad 2. Bad news for shops selling the iPads... for now, anyway.

Jobs told those gathered for the unveiling the handheld computer is not only thinner than its predecessor, it is "dramatically faster."

"It has a new chip called A5," he said. "It's dual-core, so we get twice as fast performance on the CPU and nine times better graphic performance," the Times quoted Jobs as saying.

The new tablet is 33 percent thinner than the original iPad and weighs 1.3 pounds, down from 1.5 pounds, Jobs said.

Read more: http://www.upi.com/Business_News/2011/03/02/Apple-CEO-Steve-Jobs-gets-standing-ovation/UPI-12761299093214/#ixzz1FY1FAw3t

CapitaMalls Asia: Consolidating?

All we can really say is that the downtrend has come to a halt and that price is testing gap resistance at $1.75. In fact, today, price touched a high of $1.78 before closing lower at $1.74. Traders are selling into strength amid uncertainties in the world markets.

Although an inverted black hammer is not pretty, price still closed above the support line drawn with the low of 28 Feb as the source. This is encouraging. The declining volume as price tried to move higher is the major dampener for bulls here. If this continues, we could be seeing the early days of a longer consolidation process.

Immediate support is still at $1.69 and if this breaks, we could see price moving lower. The gap resistance at $1.75 which has cracked two sessions in a row remains the immediate resistance although weakened. A realistic target upon overcoming gap resistance is $1.83, a twice tested support that gave way on 23 Feb.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Steady in a sea of red.

Golden Agriculture: Signs of selling into strength.

Golden Agriculture's share price attempted to move higher today and touched a high of 71.5c. This is probably on news of higher CPO price which likely did better due to the strong price of crude oil. The counter's share price eventually retreated to close at 70c. There seems to be some strong selling pressure higher up.

However, closing above the downtrend resistance is good news for bulls since it confirms a nascent uptrend although it is a weak uptrend as suggested by a declining ADX. Unless volume expands significantly on the next upmove, expect continuing resistance as price tries to move higher. The declining 50dMA seems on track to forming a dead cross with the rising 100dMA which is currently at 72.5c. This could cap any upside from here.

Related post:
Golden Agriculture: Downtrend once more.

CapitaMalls Asia: Steady in a sea of red.

For a brief few minutes, its share price overcame gap resistance at $1.75, touching a high of $1.76. Ultimately, gap resistance proved too strong as price closed the session at $1.75. Volume was lower than the preceding session which is probably why price action lacked the impetus to close above gap resistance.

Nonetheless, in a sea of red, closing unchanged is a sign of strength. Both MFI and RSI have turned up. While it is still too early to say, we could be seeing the formation of a higher low on the MACD. It would be clearer by end of the week. This could reinforce the positive divergence we are witnessing in the weekly chart.

Overcoming the gap resistance convincingly could see the share price testing resistance at $1.83 and perhaps even $1.88. A more bullish scenario could even see the longer term downtrend resistance approximating the declining 100dMA tested.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: More upside after gap cover?

Citi upgrades CapitaMall Trust to Buy from Hold. It estimates the Illuma acquisition would increase DPU by approximately 1%, given its low financing cost of 2%. 
Wednesday, 02 March 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Golden Agriculture: Downtrend once more.

Golden Agriculture started the day at 69c, touched a low of 67.5c before closing at 68.5c, forming a black candle with a long lower wick. That this formed within a preceding white candle has a semblance of a bearish harami. The bearish tone is reinforced by the fact that the downtrend resistance is at 69c which means that the counter's share price is once again in the embrace of the downtrend which started on 4 Jan.

Although price might go higher to retest previous session's high of 71c, the probability of further weakening is rather high. Why a retest of previous high at 71c and not 72c as provided by the 100dMA mentioned in earlier blog posts? Well, traders are going to remember 71c as the price they could have sold at but didn't. So, 71c is now a psychologically important resistance level.

A weakening in price could see the 200dMA, now at 64c, tested once more as support. If it holds up, I could possibly go long on the counter once more. Otherwise, the next support is the low of 23 Feb at 61c. Making sure that support holds up before going long is the way to go.

Related post:
Golden Agriculture: A one day gain of 7 to 9.4%.

Cache Logistics Trust: A retest of 91.5c low?

This is one counter I have been patiently waiting for price to reach a level I consider relatively attractive. Technically, it is looking quite possible that my wish could come true.

Today's trading volume is the highest since 1 Nov 2010. A long black candle was formed. Coupled with increased volume, this is very bearish. We could see the recent low of 92.5c tested next. Could we even see the low of 26 May 2010 at 91.5c tested? There is a chance.

I have put in my buy queue at 91.5c. With an annualised DPU of 7.76c, it would mean a distribution yield of 8.48%. This is lower than AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT's 9.76% (with a DPU of 2c at the current price of 20.5c).

A lower distribution yield is acceptable to me due to the REIT's much lower gearing of 23.7% and much higher interest cover ratio of 9.3x. Cache Logistics Trust's numbers look stronger than AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT's (gearing of 33.6% and interest cover ratio of 5x). Buying at 91.5c is still a premium of 2.8% over its NAV/share of 89c but this is marginal and acceptable for a lower risk investment.

Related post:
Cache Logistics Trust: Weakness after XD.

Healthway Medical: 4Q 2010 results.

Not expecting any spectacular improvement in numbers from Healthway Medical. Let's take a look:

1.  Revenue declined 23.8% in Q4 compared to the same period last year.  For the full year, revenue declined 12.2% compared to the previous year.

2. Staff cost increased 11% in Q4 compared to the same period last year.

3. Profit before income tax decreased 68.2% to $1.133m in Q4 compared to the same period last year.

4. Cash flow from operations is positive for the quarter at $6,289m. This may seem like a good thing but scrutinise the numbers and we realise that most of this is because of trade and other receivables which came up to $6,927m. If we take these away, cash flow from operations would be negative.

 

5. EPS for the quarter is 0.04c which is an improvement over the 0.01c in Q3 but down from 0.23c in the same quarter last year. Full year EPS 0.14c.

See results here.


Although the numbers are still bad, generally, the numbers are getting less bad. The increase in staff cost seems to be slowing down while the reduction in profit is not as severe as before. Even the negative cash flow from operation situation is less serious now as compared to negative $2.3m in Q2 and negative $1.278m in Q3.

With an EPS of 0.14c, Healthway Medical is trading at a PE of 100x. No investor worth his salt would touch this. However, there could be opportunities to trade this counter and I would view any rebound as a chance for stale bulls to reduce exposure.

Immediate support is at 13.5c but if this were to break, we could see 12.5c next. Strong support is to be found at 11c. Technically, the only encouraging sign is the MFI which shows some underlying support with higher lows.

So, if we do not see a sell down tomorrow, it would suggest that only stoic long holders are left. In fact, from the peak achieved on 16 June 2010, volume has been declining as share price retreated. No matter how dismal the fundamentals are, if all the sellers have sold, share price could begin to bottom in earnest. Wait and see.

Related post:
Healthway Medical: 3Q 2010 results.

CapitaMalls Asia: More upside after gap cover?

Some may wonder why CapitaMalls Asia seems to be suffering from malaise even as Capitaland's share price recovered almost 3% today. A quick look at the chart and the answer is obvious. Gap resistance is found at $1.75 and the counter closed the gap today. What now?

The MACD histogram has turned green. With the MACD still in negative territory, a green histogram probably indicates a short term bullish bias. The MFI has dipped into oversold territory while the RSI is upturning in oversold territory. Even if the price does not recover in a hurry, the technicals hint that any downside could be limited for now.

Immediate support has been established at $1.69, the low of 28 Feb while immediate resistance remains at $1.75, beyond which, resistance could be found at $1.83 (a twice tested support turned resistance) and $1.88 (downtrend resistance and declining 20dMA).

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Another failed reversal signal.

Golden Agriculture: A one day gain of 7 to 9.4%.

The STI experienced a nice up day as it closed 1.9% higher at 3,067.60. Golden Agriculture closed higher as well, breaking the immediate resistance of 68.5c, touching a high of 71c before closing at 70.5c.

I have closed my long position bought at 64c yesterday at 68.5c and 70c today, locking in a one day gain of 7% and 9.4% respectively. For those who have yet to close their positions, the next resistance levels are at 72c (100dMA) and 73.5c (50dMA). Having broken out of the downtrend which started on 4 Jan on the back of a high volume white candle day, there is a chance that price could go higher. Then, why did I choose to close my position?

A one day gain of 7% to 9.4%, risk free, is good enough for me. There could be another 2 or 3c gain from here but the risk is definitely higher now. 68.5c is also a natural price level for partial divestment as it approximates the position of the downtrend resistance, on top of being the price where we find the 20dMA.

A look at the weekly chart shows that 72c is likely to be a strong resistance. Notice also how the MFI and RSI are forming lower highs and lower lows. We could be experiencing a very strong rebound and when the energy is spent, price is probably heading lower.

STI increases 1.9% to 3,067.60 at closing. Golden Agri Resources surged 8.5% to 70.5 cents. UOB-Kay Hian Holdings raised its rating to “hold” from “sell,” while HSBC maintained its “overweight” recommendation and cut its share-price forecast to 81 cents from 90 cents.
Tuesday, 01 March 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Related post:

Golden Agriculture: Stellar FY2010 results.

SoundGlobal: Sound the alarm?

On 27 Jan, I blogged about SoundGlobal and how I was, once upon a time, an investor in the company, when it was known as E-pure. I concluded that blog post by saying "I like to use Fibo lines in such an instance to see how low price could go in case support breaks. Support is, of course, at 70c. Looking at the chart, the three golden ratios are at 62c, 59.5c and 57c. Buy some at those levels? I might if the other signs are encouraging."

The counter closed at 61c today as price hugged the lower Bollinger. ADX has been rising sharply as the negative DI continues higher. More weakness is probable.

However, in case of a rebound, expect gap resistance at 67.5c and support turned resistance at 71c.

Fundamentally, the company's full year results announced today might have disappointed although a 1c dividend was declared.

Year on year, profit increased a mere 2.3% although revenue increased 36.5% and gross profit increased 42.8%. Expenses and income tax shot through the roof.

EPS: RMB 8.4c (Errata: RMB 22.4c)
NAV/share: RMB 149.5c

See announcement here.

So, will I buy at 61c? I think it is still pretty pricey with a PE of about 36x (Errata: 14.5x). I might still be suffering from the memory effect and 61c is just not an attractive price for me to go long on this counter again.

Errata: Made a mistake as I took in only Q4's EPS. At 14.5x, it doesn't look so pricey anymore.

Related post:
SoundGlobal: The former E-pure.

CapitaMalls Asia: Another failed reversal signal.

The Bullish Harami Cross failed as a reversal signal. Today, price gapped down at $1.73 and went on to touch an intra-day low of $1.69 before closing at $1.72. Very high volume accompanied this black candle day.

On the face of it, the entire picture looks very bearish but the formation of a black hammer suggests that the bulls are fighting back. In fact, the trade summary shows that sell downs and buy ups are almost evenly matched.

In an earlier blog post, I suggested that $1.70 is a strong support and that I would wait to see if this support level holds up before deciding whether to add to my long position. I have added to my long position at $1.71 today as the $1.70 level was tested and held up.

CapitaMall Trust flat; Iluma buy a long term story - UOB KayHian. At an NPI yield of 3.8%, does not look yield accretive to the portfolio NPI yield of 5.6% or the trading yield of 5.3%.
Monday, 28 February 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Another reversal signal.

Golden Agriculture: Stellar FY2010 results.

In my past blog posts on Golden Agriculture, I said that this company is the most leveraged to CPO price and the very strong CPO price in recent months naturally means higher profits for the company. Golden Agriculture reported stellar results for FY2010 today:

Year on year:

1. Revenue increased 53%.

2. Core net profit increased 91% (excluding gain from changes in fair value of biological assets, foreign exchange loss and exceptional items).

3. Net debt/equity ratio at 0.1x.

4. Dividend of 0.77c per share proposed.

5. NAV per share is US56c.

6. EPS is US12c.


See full presentation here.

The after market sell down of almost 10m shares at 65c is somewhat disconcerting. This notwithstanding, the immediate resistance to any continuing upward movement in price is provided by the descending 20dMA which would approximate 68.5c tomorrow. I went in this morning with a small long position at 64c. Let us see how things turn out tomorrow.

Golden Agri Q4 net more than doubles to $1.49b. Its revenue surged 85% to US$1.19 billion from US$643 million in the year-ago period and core profit more than doubled to US$146 million.
Monday, 28 February 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Saizen REIT: Insider moves and divestment of Aistage Ushita Minami.

Catching up on my reading:

1. 21 Feb: Somerset Holdings Limited (SHL) converted 206,800 warrants into new units. 601,600 units held after the change. Mr. Dennis Lam Siu Sun, a director of the REIT, is the beneficial holder of more than 20% of the issued share capital of SHL.

2. 25 Feb: Divestment of Aistage Ushita Minami for a cash consideration of JPY 270,000,000 (S$4.2 million). Location: Hiroshima.  Built in August 2006, comprises 32 residential units and 7 parking lots. Sale price is a premium of approximately 0.7% to valuation.

Golden Agriculture: Immediate price target in a rebound.

On Friday, I mentioned that it is encouraging to see Golden Agriculture going above the 200dMA (currently at 63.5c) and wondered if breaking support earlier was just a whipsaw. So, is it time to go long here?

Well, the downtrend that started on 4 January is still intact. The MACD histogram shows a short term bullish bias. MFI and RSI are both turning up in oversold territories. The ADX is flattening which suggests that the downtrend has weakened although still in force.

If I were to enter for a quick trade, I would buy as close to the 200dMA (63.5c) as possible. In a downtrend, sell at resistance and the immediate resistance would be provided by the 20dMA which approximates the downtrend resistance at 69c. So, there could be a 10% or so upside.

The MACD is still declining in negative territory which suggests that any upward movement in price could just be a rebound. To err on the side of caution is probably prudent.

Related post:
STI up 1.8%: Out of the woods?

CapitaMalls Asia: Another reversal signal.

Many would remember how the charts spotted reversal signals on Monday and how they failed to be confirmed on Tuesday. When reversal signals fail in a downtrend, the bear is strong indeed. With CapitaMalls Asia, it was no exception as a potential Morning Doji Star setup failed to materialise.

I have not really been looking at the charts since starting my vacation which explains the lack of any charts in my recent blog posts. This morning, I looked at CapitaMalls Asia's chart and we have a reversal signal again. It is a Bullish Harami Cross. Remembering that TA simply gives us hints of what could be and not what would be, let us look at the two possible scenarios.

On Wednesday, I asked "Would I sell my loss making investment in the company? Nope. Why? Because I think the selling could be overdone. Look at the weekly chart and you would see a positive divergence between price and the MFI and RSI."  So, if the reversal signal on the daily chart is confirmed next week, it could be a confirmation of the positive divergence on the weekly chart. This is the more exciting of the two scenarios for long holders, of course.

The $1.83 support would have to be recaptured and if this were to happen, there would be resistance at $1.88 next.  Price could go as high as $2.00 which is where we find the 200dMA but the declining 20wMA on the weekly chart will approximate $1.95 next week. So? We could see price touching $2.00 but pulling back to the 20wMA or $1.95 could be strong enough to prevent price from touching $2.00 at all. So, why am I saying all this? Knowing where the different resistance levels are allows me to decide on where to place my sell orders if the reversal does take place.

If the reversal signal failed once again, price could descend to test $1.70 which is a support level based on sets of Fibo lines I drew some time back on 18 Feb. This is the less exciting scenario for long holders. What would I do then? Wait to see that $1.70 holds up before deciding whether to increase exposure.

Time for breakfast and some sun. Have a great Saturday!

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Morning Doji Star.
CapitaMalls Asia: Suppot at $1.88 gave way.

STI up 1.8%: Out of the woods?

The STI closed 1.8% higher and recaptured the 3,000 points support. Whether 3,000 points is now support once more, actually, needs confirmation. It is too early to say that we are out of the woods.

As most of my investments in the stock market are not index linked counters, I am not too bothered by the STI apart from the possible spillover effects it could create.

1. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial Trust: My buy queue at 20c was not filled. I am continuing the buy queue at 20c for next Monday. Although price closed at 20c today, most of the 8,840 lots transacted today were Buy Ups at 20.5c, 6,913 lots to be exact. 20c is a very strong support both technically and fundamentally.

2. Cache Logistics Trust: I am still waiting to buy this at 92.5c. It did touch 92.5c recently but my Buy order was not filled. So, am I going to buy at a higher price? Nope. I will continue to wait at 92.5c since technical weakness is still apparent.

3. CapitaMalls Asia: Closed 1c higher. Technically very weak. See if it captures support at $1.83. The counter closed at $1.77.

4. First REIT: For anyone who is seeking exposure or increasing the weight of his long exposure to this REIT, 72c support has held up and could be a fairly safe entry. However, if 72c breaks, the next support is at 69c. If a possible 3c paper loss is acceptable, why not?

5. Genting SP: Similar to CapitaMalls Asia, this counter must capture its previous support in order to set investors' minds at ease. That would be at $2.00. The counter closed at $1.95.


6. Golden Agriculture: Regained support at 63.5c. This needs confirmation in the next session but it is a shot in the arm for investors. Closing below support recently could just be a whipsaw.

7. Healthway Medical: Closed at 14c which was support. This could now be resistance. Technically and fundamentally weak, I would only go long on this counter for quick trades for now which is what I have done before.



8. Saizen REIT: Buy ups at 16c happening. 15.5c remains a very strong support, technically, and is a fairly safe entry price for any interested investor.

9. ASTI: I increased my long position and I shared this on Twitter yesterday. EPS: 2.6c. NAV: 18c/share. Dividend: 0.7c/share. I bought more at 10c/share. It was my only "update" yesterday in my blog. If you are not following me on Twitter yet, you might want to do so for my short "blogs".

OK, hungry for dinner now after an afternoon nap, recovering from hours on the beach. Have a wonderful weekend! :)

STI climbs 1.8% to 3,025.16 at closing
Friday, 25 February 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore