Tea with AK71: A confused wine for Hokkiens?

I was at the supermarket and chanced upon this:

A wine for Hokkien people? If so, it could be quite confused. ;-p

On a serious note, this is an American wine which I have not tried before. Has anyone tried this brand? Is it any good?

Saizen REIT: Sanity prevails with more good news.

Since starting my investment in Saizen REIT in the later half of 2009 at a price of 13c/unit, the REIT gained in market value and I also received income distributions from the REIT twice. However, the totally unforeseen triple disaster of earthquake, tsunami and the following nuclear power plant crisis wrecked a steadily improving picture.

As I was consistently buying more units in the REIT, to say that I was not in the least mentally or emotionally affected would be untrue. Some were asking me to dump my investment in the REIT, painting horrific images. Some left comments in my blog with words to the same effect and more. Also, news that countries around the world were asking their citizens to leave Japan (due to perceived radiation risks) didn't help.

However, throughout the crisis, I tried to stay calm and rational and, by my own standards, I did it fairly well. I analysed the situation early on and came up with a worst case scenario which suggested that at 13c/unit, the REIT was oversold by panic stricken investors. I stood by my analysis and the fact that insiders were buying reinforced my belief that the unit price was at a floor, if not the bottom.

I could stay calm and rational partly because I was not using any borrowed money or money which I would need in a hurry elsewhere. That we should never invest using borrowed funds or funds needed in the near future is an important principle for all investors.

Some friends would say that I have an added advantage of sitting on a thick cushion of investment gains and dividends accumulated since late 2009. This is, perhaps, true, since at the back of my mind, I knew that I would not be losing any of my capital in the crisis even if the unit price were to weaken further.

The REIT's fundamental and technical pictures have altered somewhat due to the disasters. These changes, I mentioned in an earlier blog post. Read it here. As an investor, we must not be stubborn and I recognise the new reality for what it is and decided to reduce exposure to the REIT when the time is right. When would this be? I have mentioned in a few blog posts that 15c would be the resistance to watch as the gap closes.

Divesting my investment in Saizen REIT partially when it tested and broke support turned resistance at 15c today was something quite mechanical for me. It was the thing to do and I did it. I am not one to be married to my investments.

What does this say about me? I never like selling at supports or what I perceive to be supports. Even in a downtrend, prices would go down a river of hope and selling in rebounds and, hopefully, at resistance is the thing to do.

Does the partial divestment of my investment in Saizen REIT mean that I am turning my back on the REIT? No. I have not closed my position in the REIT, merely lightened it. I remain vested and might even add to my position if the unit price should weaken once more.

Although the partial divestment has erased some of my investment gains, my overall portfolio remains in the black and my capital is intact. Rebuilding my investment gains means that the game is once again afoot.

Oh, if you are wondering what the good news for Saizen REIT is, they have announced a plan which could possibly see YK Shintoku, the last portfolio with a CMBS, unencumbered by end of May 2011. Details? I am going to be lazy here. Please read the announcement here.

Related post:
Saizen REIT: Staying calm and rational.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Stronger numbers.

The REIT's properties have been revalued higher year on year by 4% as at 31 March 2010. This means NAV per unit improves by 1c. See announcement here.

The REIT's unaudited financial results for the financial year ended 31 March 2011 will be released on 19 April 2011. See announcement here.

I am expecting the following:
DPU: 0.215c
NAV per unit: 27c.
Gearing: 32%.

DPU of 0.215c is, of course, due to the advance distribution of 0.285c earlier last month to exclude placement shares from income distribution for the period prior to the placement exercise.

NAV per unit, I have left unchanged despite the 4% higher property valuation because the REIT did dispose of Asahi Ohmiya Warehouse in Tokyo last month.

Gearing level is lower at 32% because funds from the same said divestment will be used to repay debt.

If my estimates are accurate enough, the REIT is currently trading at a 24% discount to NAV and a distribution yield of 9.76% (annualised DPU of 2c). A 32% gearing level is pretty safe considering the fact that property prices seem to be rising. There is also the fact that debts were refinanced last year at a much lower interest rate of 2.16% and the loans are not due for another two years at least.

I continue to like this REIT's fundamentals and would accumulate on any weakness.

Related posts:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Insights.
AIMS AMP Capital Indsutrial REIT: Lower gearing.

CapitaMalls Asia: Testing $1.83 resistance.

CapitaMalls Asia tested support turned resistance at $1.83 for the first time today. The fact that its share price pulled back and closed at $1.81 shows the existence of strong selling pressure closer to and at $1.83. The fact that this happened on much higher volume shows some weakness in the upward movement today. My sell order at $1.83 was not done.

The MFI, a measure of demand, has flattened despite the higher price and volume while the RSI has flattened in overbought territory. OBV, however, is rising which suggests ongoing accumulation. What are the possible scenarios now?

Given the fact that the MFI and RSI are near overbought and overbought, respectively, upside could be limited from here. $1.83 remains the immediate resistance while further upside could be capped at $1.88 (78.6% Fibo fan line and 100dMA) in the event that $1.83 is overcome.

Downside? Immediate support is at $1.80 although this could be a weak support. Stronger support could be found at $1.78, a many times tested resistance which coincides with trendline support as well. If this were to go, the uptrend would have been compromised and the next support would be at $1.72.

I have divested some at $1.78 and have put in a sell order at $1.83 for tomorrow. If price were to weaken to $1.72, I could buy in again. TA is never about certainty. It is about probability and we should plan accordingly. Good luck to fellow shareholders.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Partial divestment at $1.78.

Sabana REIT: Positive divergence.

In an earlier blog post, I mentioned that we should "Keep an eye on the MACD and see if a higher low forms as price forms a lower low. We are on the lookout for a potential positive divergence." A higher low has formed in the MACD and we have a positive divergence.

The formation of a positive divergence does not mean that the unit price is going to fly higher right away. A significant resistance presented by the declining 20dMA at 94c would have to be cleared first. Drawing a Fibo fan, it is also interesting to note that price is currently at the 23.6% Fibo fan line. This is not one of the three golden ratios and is a weaker resistance but it is a resistance nonetheless.

Overcoming immediate resistance at 94c would see price going higher. Long suffering unitholders of this underperforming REIT could have a respite soon if this should be the case. Good luck.

Related post:
Sabana REIT: Initiated long position.

Cache Logistics Trust: When would I buy more?

Cache Logistics Trust went as high as 96c/unit today before closing at 95c/unit, forming a gravestone doji in the process. Buying more at current levels means a smaller margin of safety, for sure. Volume was also lower as price tried to move higher. A picture of negative divergence is forming: rising price and falling volume.

Connecting the lows of 15 March and 24 March gives us a trendline support. Waiting for price to pull back to this support level before loading more would be sensible. This is currently at 94c which is also where we find the flattening 20dMA. In rather bearish circumstances, we could even see price breaking support, be it a whipsaw or not, to touch 93c. I could buy more then.

Having said all this, if a person is worried about missing the boat and would really like to initiate a long position, 95c could be a hedge. Why? Well, the momentum oscillators are all rising nicely: the MACD lookings like it could be crossing into positive territory soon. Using a Fibo fan, we also see that  95c is exactly where we find the golden ratio 61.8% and if this were to be established as a support, unit price could touch 97c in the near future.

Cache Logistics Trust has strong fundamentals and its technicals have strengthened. However, I am not one to chase after rising prices. If the opportunity presents itself, I would buy on weakness.

Related posts:
Cache Logistics Trust: Initiated long position at 91.5c.
Cache Logistics Trust: Positive divergences.

A movie: Space Battleship Yamato.

I watched "Space Battleship Yamato" today and thoroughly enjoyed it. It is somewhat different from the anime I watched as a young boy but that's to be expected since the anime spanned tens of episodes and the movie lasted only 131 minutes. Here is the official website of the movie: http://yamato-movie.net/en/movie.html

After watching the movie, I was so full of nostalgia that I decided to search for the anime I watched as a young boy. I found what I was looking for on YouTube and would like to share here with readers who might have the same feelings that I do. You know what, I like the anime more. ;-p

English version (known as "Star Blazers") here:


Japanese version (the original "Space Battleship Yamato") here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SDLifAZiRrg&playnext=1&list=PL025131FA84B9B71F

Hint: The Japanese version is better. More authentic. Enjoy. :-)

Tea with AK71: Aloe Vera flowers?

I have told friends that my Aloe Vera plant at home has flowered a few times before and all were incredulous. Do Aloe Vera plants flower? I must admit that I was quite surprised myself when the plant first flowered. Well, it flowered again and I have taken a few photos over a period of 3 days to share here in my blog:

To see a field of Aloe Vera plants flowering, there is a very nice photo at this link here.

Golden Agriculture: Alarm bells aplenty?

I missed the last leg up on Golden Agriculture as its share price formed a higher low on 15 March at 62.5c. The counter touched a high of 71.5c in the last session before closing at 70.5c.

The MACD has been rising and is now in positive territory heralding the return of positive momentum. However, the question to ask is whether this is durable. Notice that OBV is not higher than it was on 4 March when share price touched a high of 72c. This shows distribution going on as price retests highs. The MFI and RSI are both bordering overbought regions. The suggestion is that upside could be limited. If alarm bells are going off in your head, you are not alone.

If you believe like I do that the counter's share price has not spotted a strong trend in a while, we have to look at the Stochastics which is currently in overbought territory. So, a pull back is more likely than not to happen in the near future. More alarm bells? I think so.

Connecting the lows of 23 Feb and 15 Mar gives us a trendline support. For anyone considering a long position in this counter, a retest of this support could be a much better option. So, is there no possibility of a breakout which could see price going higher? The possibility of a breakout exists, of course. Like I said before, TA is about probability, not certainty.

Related post:
Golden Agriculture: Testing the 200dMA.

ASSI 1Q 2011 Quarterly Report.

ASSI had 32,200 unique visitors in the month of January 2011. In the following month, the number reduced only a tad to 31,815. Given the fact that February is a short month, the average number of unique visitors per day actually increased. In March 2011, the number of unique visitors saw a spike to 40,832 while the number of returning visitors also formed a new high of 20,554. In all three months, ASSI registered more than 1,000 unique visitors a day on average.

Comparing the quarterly numbers since January 2010, 1Q 2011 has the best showing. Page loads increased from 78,184 to 161,049 year on year for a 206% increase. Number of unique visitors increased from 39,151 to 104,847 year on year for a 268% increase.

Quarter on quarter, page loads increased from 147,742 to 161,049 for a 9% increase. Number of unique visitors increased from 88,558 to 104,847 for an 18.4% increase. Returning visitors increased by 18.2% as well, quarter on quarter.

I enjoy blogging since discovering it in late 2009 and would probably continue doing it just as a pastime. However, such strong readership numbers provide me with that extra motivation to blog regularly. I am only human and respond well to positive reinforcement. Thanks to all regular readers for spreading the word and a hearty welcome if you are new to my blog.

Related post:
ASSI 2010 Annual Report.

Healthway Medical: 1 for 8 rights issue.

I just went to an ATM to subscribe for the rights by Cambridge Industrial Trust earlier this evening. Now, I have another rights issue to contend with. Healthway Medical is also having a 1 for 8 rights issue. See announcement here. The rights will be priced at 7.5c per piece.

On 2 March, I suggested that no investor would put money in the company at 14c per share because it was trading at a PE ratio of 100x! I also said that "Immediate support is at 13.5c but if this were to break, we could see 12.5c next." Its share price went on to test 12.5c for 7 sessions later in the same month. Price closed at 13.5c today.

Technically, the counter is still in a downtrend and this is defined by the 50dMA which coincides with the trendline resistance. Resistance is currently at 14c. The MACD is rising in negative territory and it looks like it could cross into positive territory if the strong momentum of late continues. Does this mean that, for some reason, market participants like the rights issue which is heavily discounted?

What would I do? I still have a small investment in the company. Fundamentally, it does not make sense to throw more money into a weak business. Technically, unless I see some hints of a reversal, I won't bother going in either. So, I could simply sell away the nil-paid rights and sit this one out.

Related post:
Healthway Medical: 4Q 2010 results.

First REIT: Bought more at 73c.

On 26 March, I mentioned that "In a change of plan, I would increase exposure to this REIT on any weakness and this would be at 73c (100dMA), 72c (lower Bollinger) and 71.5c (the recent low of 17 Mar)." Today, I bought more units of First REIT at 73c a piece. With an expected DPU of 6.4c for 2011, this latest purchase would have a distribution yield of about 8.77%.

Today's selling down was somewhat aggressive as volume was very high, the highest since 14 Feb 2011. A long black candle was also formed. The lower shadow on the black candle suggests that there is support for this REIT. I also like how the MACD has been slowly rising even as price touched a recent low of 71.5c.

The REIT's price action looks rangebound and if we believe that there is no trend, we should pay attention to the Stochastics which suggests that the REIT is correcting from an almost overbought position. So, more weakness to be expected? Possibly and I am waiting to accumulate on any further weakness.

Related post:
First REIT: Accumulate on weakness.

Sabana REIT: Initiated long position.

Initiated a long position in Sabana REIT at 93c and 92.5c today. 93c was, of course, a hedge, while 92.5c was the price I have been waiting for since late last year shortly after the REIT's IPO.

The IPO price was at $1.05/unit. So, getting in at the prices that I did today represents a discount of more than 11% from the IPO price. The NAV per unit is 99c and my entry prices today represent a discount of more than 6% to NAV. With an estimated DPU of 8.63c for 2011, my investment today will enjoy a distribution yield of about 9.3%. With a gearing level of 26.5%, I believe this REIT is a fairly safe investment in the next couple of years.

Technically, the REIT looks rather weak and is suffering from some heavy selling which saw its price touch a low of 92c today. A single sell order at 9.42AM accounted for 1,215 lots sold down at 92.1c per unit. It seems that someone is selling down the REIT and we see 100 lots being sold down regularly throughout the day at 93c per unit. Volume was really heavy. More downside seems likely.

What's next? Fundamentally, any further price weakness would make this REIT even more attractive to me. However, I am not in a hurry to accumulate. After all, I have gotten my foot in the door today. I will now monitor the technicals until there are more favourable signs to add to my initial long position. 91c next? Possibly. Keep an eye on the MACD and see if a higher low forms as price forms a lower low. We are on the lookout for a potential positive divergence.

After all, given the fact that Sabana REIT should be announcing its first income distribution soon, could we not see a reversal of its downtrend in the near future? The REIT, as per its prospectus, "will make distributions to Unitholders on a quarterly basis, with the amount calculated as at 31 March, 30 June, 30 September and 31 December each year for the three-month period ending on each of the said dates."

Good luck, mon ami.


Related post:
Sabana REIT: Being stubborn?