First REIT: Bought more at 73.5c.

Today, I bought more units of First REIT at 73.5c. It should be quite obvious that the unit price of this REIT has gone into a trading range. There is no trend.

In my blog post of 1 April, I said "The REIT's price action looks rangebound and if we believe that there is no trend, we should pay attention to the Stochastics which suggests that the REIT is correcting from an almost overbought position. So, more weakness to be expected? Possibly and I am waiting to accumulate on any further weakness."

The Stochastics were coming off a high of 80% in late March. It has now flatlined at 50% which sometimes act as a support in a decline. With Stochastics no longer bordering on overbought, could we see price pushing the higher end of the range in the near future?

The rising 100dMA seems to be providing some measure of support and this is now at 73c. 74.5c is a many times tested resistance and would have to be cleared before price could go higher.

With the quarterly report and income distribution announcement drawing nearer day by day, a positive catalyst for price to move higher in the near term is possibly at hand. Could we then see a retest of January's high of 77c? Why not?

Related post:
First REIT: Bought more at 73c.

Capitaland: Insights with Fibo Fan.

In my last blog post on Capitaland, I said that "With immediate resistance at $3.54 (100dMA) and a possible whipsaw to $3.56 (gap resistance and 50% Fibo fan line), the near term upside could be limited from the current level. Support is at $3.41 in the next couple of sessions. This is a natural candlestick support and it coincides with the trendline support. A retest of support could see me initiating a long position in this counter." Read it here.

Today, Capitaland's share price pulled back and closed at $3.44, the low of the day, after touching a high of $3.53, just approximating the 100dMA. A test of support at $3.41 is very likely. The original plan was to initiate a long position at $3.41, if tested. Seeing, however, that the momentum oscillators are still bordering on overbought despite the pull back in share price, I decided to get some insights with a Fibo Fan.

The Fibo Fan connects the low of 17 March and the high of today. Now, what I am interested in are the positions of the golden ratios in the next few sessions. 38.2% would be at $3.38 and 50% would be at $3.32 in the next session. Notice how the 20dMA seems to coincide with the 50% line? This is likely to be a strong support, if tested. In between these two golden ratios, we find the 50dMA, still declining but gently so, at $3.36. This could provide some support as well.

So? Much safer entry point is at $3.32 while entry at $3.38 could be considered as a hedge. What about $3.41? Yes, that too could be considered a hedge although I am inclined not to put in a buy queue at $3.41 anymore because the momentum oscillators are still bordering on overbought.

Golden Agriculture: Black spinning top.

Golden Agriculture started the day bullishly enough but ended the day at 72.5c after touching immediate support at 72c. A black spinning top was formed, suggesting market indecision. This could be a reversal signal as indecision in an uptrend is not good news for bulls.

Support is currently provided by the flat 100dMA. With the momentum oscillators in their overbought territories, a pull back is not unlikely. Breaking support at 72c could bring out the sellers. However, the steeper uptrend which started on 15 March would still be intact if its trendline support holds up and this would be at 70c or so in the next two sessions. If this were to fail, the next supports are at 68.5c (50dMA) and 66c (200dMA).


Related post:
Golden Agriculture: Overcame resistance at 72c.

CapitaMalls Asia: $2.17 target price?

I remember that someone told me that DBS Vickers had a target price of $2.51 for CapitaMalls Asia and wondered why the share price of this company has been so weak. Well, valuation is a subjective exercise.

For example, OCBC Investment Research published a report with a target price of $2.17 for CapitaMalls Asia on 7 April 2011. Yes, this was just a few days ago. Does it mean that the share price is going to hit $2.17 in the next few days? It could happen, of course, but I won't bet my bottom dollar on it.

Having said this, it is always good to see what others have to say and OCBC Investment Research did raise some good points:

For CMA, China is the key growth market. CMA has three key operational advantages in China: Firstly, it has the ability to leverage on its extensive tenant network. Second, it has demonstrated diligence and success in using asset enhancement initiatives (AEIs) to grow its net property income (NPI). Thirdly, there would be a trend of decreasing dependence on anchor tenants as malls mature and this would further boost NPI.

CMA’s business model in China is a resilient one due to its focus on mid-high income segment instead of the volatile high growth-high margin luxury segment. While its downside is sheltered, CMA is poised to benefit from the expected steady growth in China’s retail consumption and middle class population.

Read full report here.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Strong uptrend emerging.

Golden Agriculture: Overcame resistance at 72c.

Golden Agriculture overcame resistance at 72c. This is a many times tested resistance and it is also where the 100dMA is approximating. Volume was not exceptionally high which makes the breakout somewhat less convincing but a breakout is a breakout and should be treated as such.

In the next session, we could see breakout chasers buying up the shares of  this counter. This could initially push price higher to close the gap formed on 20 January 2011 and this would be the immediate target of 76c. In time, we could see price overcoming gap resistance with an eventual target of 80c.

For anyone who might want to take a chance that the counter would go higher in price, a smallish hedge is wise since momentum oscillators are all in their overbought regions. With trading volume unimpressive, a pull back to retest supports cannot be ruled out.  Resistance turned support at 72c, unbroken if retested, would be a more ideal entry price than buying at a high.

If a long position were to be initiated at or closer to 72c successfully and if price were to move higher, this would probably be more of a short term trade. Why? Look at the weekly chart for an idea of the longer term picture. From the week of 21 February 2011 to the week of 4 April 2011, weekly volume has been reducing as price moved higher. A negative divergence? You got it.

If we scrutinise the MFI and the RSI, we see lower highs and lower lows as well. So? Price has been rising on weaker momentum. It does not mean that price cannot move higher, it just means that the chances of a breakdown is higher since the breakout is weaker. Being nimble is important here and less greed could be a good thing too.

CDL: A target of $14.31?

In the weekly email from The EDGE, "CLSA has upgraded City Developments to a buy in a 100-page property report dated Apr 7.... has a target of $14.31 for the stock against ... RNAV (Revised Net Asset Value) estimate of $16.84."

The stock closed at $11.76 in the last session. So, $14.31 is some 22% higher! That is some upside! What did I do? I decided to look at the charts.

It is quite clear that the rebound from 17 March has come to an end and price had been moving sideways the whole week. Resistance is at $11.78 or so and immediate support is around $11.57. Although price is sideway moving, OBV has been creeping higher which is a sign of accumulation. ADX with both +DI and -DI are flat. There isn't any trend per se. However, with +DI above -DI and with the MACD rising in positive territory, there is more reason to be optimistic than not.

Any chance of a pull back? Well, price moved quickly up from a low of $10.18 on 17 March for a gain of 15.5%. This is quite impressive but the MFI and RSI are both bordering on overbought while the stochastics is high in overbought territory.

Price is currently facing resistance provided by the declining 100dMA. Unless this resistance is overcome convincingly, chances are there will be a pull back. A pull back to $11.20 would be more of an ideal price to initiate a long position although I also see a possibility of $11.00 being tested for support in more volatile conditions.

Tea with AK71: A healthy low cost meal.

I have blogged about some low cost meals before and they have attracted many comments, some of which were surprisingly strong. I still remember some animated comments regarding the 70c nasi lemak and the cheap hawker fare at Tiong Bahru Market.

Well, I am now going to share with you another one of my favourite low cost meals which is easy to cook and full of nutrition: Oats. We can buy a 500g packet of raw rolled oats for about $3.00 from NTUC Fairprice. If you shop at Cold Storage, it could cost a bit more. It is cheaper to buy a 1kg pack, weight for weight, if you are cooking for more than one usually.

Put a pot of water to boil.

Get about half a bowl of raw rolled oats ready.

When the water has come to a boil, pour in the oats.

Replace the lid and switch off the fire. Leave it for 30 minutes or so. Sometimes, I forget and leave it for a bit longer but it's OK as the fire is off.

When you come back, give the contents a good stir.

You could add sugar or honey for taste. You could also add some dried fruits like raisins and apricots. There you have it: a low GI (glycemic index) meal that is full of nutrition and fibre.

Cost? Less than a dollar per serving, for sure. Guess what did I have for breakfast?

Capitaland: Going even higher?

Capitaland's share price formed a long white candle as price closed at $3.50 in the last session. Guess what. The technicals look similar to those of CapitaMalls Asia. Since I suspect that CapitaMalls Asia's share price could go higher, the same suspicion would apply to Capitaland's share price.

+DI is rising and ADX has flattened. MACD is rising strongly in positive territory. OBV suggests strong accumulation is going on. MFI is bordering overbought. RSI is high in overbought territory. Volume has lowered since 29 March when price tested the trendline support but it is higher than the low of 17 March. Uptrend support is intact but a pull back in the near term is possible.

With immediate resistance at $3.54 (100dMA) and a possible whipsaw to $3.56 (gap resistance and 50% Fibo fan line), the near term upside could be limited from the current level. Support is at $3.41 in the next couple of sessions. This is a natural candlestick support and it coincides with the trendline support. A retest of support could see me initiating a long position in this counter.

Tea with AK71: Cornettos and Magnums.

I love ice cream. I have always enjoyed Cornettos and Magnums but I enjoyed them even more when I was in Thailand. Look at the photos and you would know why:

10 Thai Baht is about 40c in Singapore currency. So? We could have a really nice Cornetto for less than 90c!

And we could have a yummy Magnum (regular size type) for $1.60!

Burp!

NOL: Out of the doldrums?

NOL formed a higher low on 28 March although it has yet to form a higher high. The impetus for this blog post is NOL's closing above the 20dMA for the first time since 10 March. Together with some other observations, it seems that NOL could be coming out of the doldrums.

Some might remark that NOL promptly sank on 11 March and what makes it different this time? Could not the price sink next Monday? Indeed, it could. This is especially so when we realise that price closed exactly at resistance provided by the 38.2% Fibo fan line.

However, I feel that things are looking up because, on the daily chart:

1. The MACD is higher now than it was on 10 March although it is still rising in negative territory.

2. There has been a prolonged period of low volatility which has resulted in tightening Bollinger bands.

3. As price moved higher lately, volume has not reduced dramatically like it did leading to 10 March.

On the weekly chart:

4. A white candle has formed on higher volume as a detachment from the lower Bollinger band takes place.

5. OBV shows a return of accumulation.

6. Stochastics suggests that the counter is oversold as it found itself trapped in sideways trading.

If there should be a pull back to $1.96 in the next session or two, I might initiate a long position. Near term upside targets are at $2.07 and $2.14 if the upward movement should continue.

CapitaMalls Asia: Strong uptrend emerging.

Despite strong buy calls from research houses, this counter's share price suffered from a prolonged period of weakness. However, recently, a strong uptrend seemed to be emerging for this counter. Refer to the orange color trendline support. Is this a reversal which would propel its share price much higher?

Volume in today's session was much lower than the previous day's but price still managed to close higher at $1.88 resistance, touching a high of $1.89 in the day. Rising on low volume is not a good sign usually but if we look at the bigger picture, the overall trend should be given more prominence. Indeed, the ADX seems to be turning up as the +DIs are rising. This is something we have not seen in a while. It suggests that a nascent uptrend could be gaining strength.

The MACD is rising higher in positive territory. The other momentum oscillators continue to rise as well. There is demand, there is accumulation and there is positive price momentum. The strength is impressive and I would be accumulating on weakness. I still have near term targets of $1.95 and $2.00 for this counter where price would meet with resistance. At what price would I accumulate? Immediate support is at $1.83.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Testing $1.88 resistance.

Higher rents to benefit industrial properties S-REITs.

In the last one month, I bought more units in industrial properties S-REITs.

1. I became an investor in Cambridge Industrial Trust again. Read blog post here.

2. I bought more units of AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT. See latest blog post here.

3. I became an investor in Cache Logistics Trust. Read blog post here.

4. I became an investor in Sabana REIT too. Read blog post here.

I believe that all these REITs are fundamentally strong and if we are investing for income, these could be very rewarding in the next two years. Distribution yields range from 8.15% for Cache Logistics Trust to 9.76% for AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT at current prices. Attractive? Quite.

DTZ Research said that rents for industrial space in Singapore are rising. Although average rent grew 3% quarter on quarter, current average rent is still 17.1% below the peak of 2008.


"DTZ added that industrial rents are anticipated to continue to increase. That is because the annual average potential supply of 7.5 million square feet between 2011 and 2013 is significantly lower than the historical 10-year average demand of 9.3 million square feet." CNA, 07 April 2011.


If we are trying to beat inflation and protect our wealth from shrinking, industrial properties S-REITs are definitely worth considering. I have felt this way for more than a year and I continue to believe in their fundamentals.

CapitaMalls Asia: Testing $1.88 resistance.

With a huge buy up at closing last evening, I took a chance that $1.83 resistance might break today. I raised my sell order to $1.87 instead, just one bid shy of resistance at $1.88 which I identified on 5 April. The sell order was filled today as price touched a high of $1.88 before closing the day at $1.86. Volume was very high today, almost quadrupling from the session before. So, will the price move higher tomorrow? It could.

There is reason to be optimistic if we believe that volume is the fuel that drives rallies and clearing the $1.83 resistance on such high volume and testing resistance at $1.88 on the same day is quite impressive. The MACD has been rising in positive territory, signalling the return of positive momentum. The MFI is yet to be overbought while the RSI is bordering on overbought. The OBV suggests strong accumulation. Immediate target in case of a breakout: $1.95 followed by $2.00.

Although a long upper shadow on today's white candle suggests some selling pressure closer to and at $1.88, selling has been well absorbed. In case of a sell down, $1.83 is the immediate support while $1.80 could provide a stronger support as that is where we find the 50dMA as well as the trendline support. Breaking $1.80 support would mean that the current uptrend has been compromised.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Testing $1.83 resistance.

Tea with AK71: A confused wine for Hokkiens?

I was at the supermarket and chanced upon this:

A wine for Hokkien people? If so, it could be quite confused. ;-p

On a serious note, this is an American wine which I have not tried before. Has anyone tried this brand? Is it any good?

Saizen REIT: Sanity prevails with more good news.

Since starting my investment in Saizen REIT in the later half of 2009 at a price of 13c/unit, the REIT gained in market value and I also received income distributions from the REIT twice. However, the totally unforeseen triple disaster of earthquake, tsunami and the following nuclear power plant crisis wrecked a steadily improving picture.

As I was consistently buying more units in the REIT, to say that I was not in the least mentally or emotionally affected would be untrue. Some were asking me to dump my investment in the REIT, painting horrific images. Some left comments in my blog with words to the same effect and more. Also, news that countries around the world were asking their citizens to leave Japan (due to perceived radiation risks) didn't help.

However, throughout the crisis, I tried to stay calm and rational and, by my own standards, I did it fairly well. I analysed the situation early on and came up with a worst case scenario which suggested that at 13c/unit, the REIT was oversold by panic stricken investors. I stood by my analysis and the fact that insiders were buying reinforced my belief that the unit price was at a floor, if not the bottom.

I could stay calm and rational partly because I was not using any borrowed money or money which I would need in a hurry elsewhere. That we should never invest using borrowed funds or funds needed in the near future is an important principle for all investors.

Some friends would say that I have an added advantage of sitting on a thick cushion of investment gains and dividends accumulated since late 2009. This is, perhaps, true, since at the back of my mind, I knew that I would not be losing any of my capital in the crisis even if the unit price were to weaken further.

The REIT's fundamental and technical pictures have altered somewhat due to the disasters. These changes, I mentioned in an earlier blog post. Read it here. As an investor, we must not be stubborn and I recognise the new reality for what it is and decided to reduce exposure to the REIT when the time is right. When would this be? I have mentioned in a few blog posts that 15c would be the resistance to watch as the gap closes.

Divesting my investment in Saizen REIT partially when it tested and broke support turned resistance at 15c today was something quite mechanical for me. It was the thing to do and I did it. I am not one to be married to my investments.

What does this say about me? I never like selling at supports or what I perceive to be supports. Even in a downtrend, prices would go down a river of hope and selling in rebounds and, hopefully, at resistance is the thing to do.

Does the partial divestment of my investment in Saizen REIT mean that I am turning my back on the REIT? No. I have not closed my position in the REIT, merely lightened it. I remain vested and might even add to my position if the unit price should weaken once more.

Although the partial divestment has erased some of my investment gains, my overall portfolio remains in the black and my capital is intact. Rebuilding my investment gains means that the game is once again afoot.

Oh, if you are wondering what the good news for Saizen REIT is, they have announced a plan which could possibly see YK Shintoku, the last portfolio with a CMBS, unencumbered by end of May 2011. Details? I am going to be lazy here. Please read the announcement here.

Related post:
Saizen REIT: Staying calm and rational.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Stronger numbers.

The REIT's properties have been revalued higher year on year by 4% as at 31 March 2010. This means NAV per unit improves by 1c. See announcement here.

The REIT's unaudited financial results for the financial year ended 31 March 2011 will be released on 19 April 2011. See announcement here.

I am expecting the following:
DPU: 0.215c
NAV per unit: 27c.
Gearing: 32%.

DPU of 0.215c is, of course, due to the advance distribution of 0.285c earlier last month to exclude placement shares from income distribution for the period prior to the placement exercise.

NAV per unit, I have left unchanged despite the 4% higher property valuation because the REIT did dispose of Asahi Ohmiya Warehouse in Tokyo last month.

Gearing level is lower at 32% because funds from the same said divestment will be used to repay debt.

If my estimates are accurate enough, the REIT is currently trading at a 24% discount to NAV and a distribution yield of 9.76% (annualised DPU of 2c). A 32% gearing level is pretty safe considering the fact that property prices seem to be rising. There is also the fact that debts were refinanced last year at a much lower interest rate of 2.16% and the loans are not due for another two years at least.

I continue to like this REIT's fundamentals and would accumulate on any weakness.

Related posts:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Insights.
AIMS AMP Capital Indsutrial REIT: Lower gearing.

CapitaMalls Asia: Testing $1.83 resistance.

CapitaMalls Asia tested support turned resistance at $1.83 for the first time today. The fact that its share price pulled back and closed at $1.81 shows the existence of strong selling pressure closer to and at $1.83. The fact that this happened on much higher volume shows some weakness in the upward movement today. My sell order at $1.83 was not done.

The MFI, a measure of demand, has flattened despite the higher price and volume while the RSI has flattened in overbought territory. OBV, however, is rising which suggests ongoing accumulation. What are the possible scenarios now?

Given the fact that the MFI and RSI are near overbought and overbought, respectively, upside could be limited from here. $1.83 remains the immediate resistance while further upside could be capped at $1.88 (78.6% Fibo fan line and 100dMA) in the event that $1.83 is overcome.

Downside? Immediate support is at $1.80 although this could be a weak support. Stronger support could be found at $1.78, a many times tested resistance which coincides with trendline support as well. If this were to go, the uptrend would have been compromised and the next support would be at $1.72.

I have divested some at $1.78 and have put in a sell order at $1.83 for tomorrow. If price were to weaken to $1.72, I could buy in again. TA is never about certainty. It is about probability and we should plan accordingly. Good luck to fellow shareholders.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Partial divestment at $1.78.