Cache Logistics Trust: 1Q FY2011 results.

Higher DPU than forecast: 1.952c.
XD: 3 May.
Payable: 30 May.

NAV/unit: 88c.
Gearing: 26.4%.
Interest cover ratio: 9.5x

See presentation slides here.

The numbers are nice and strong. Although its distribution yield is lower than AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, I believe that it is a premium that is well worth the money.

Looking at the chart, a potential reverse head and shoulders is quite obvious. Of course, I could be counting the chicks before they hatch here. The neckline is at 96c and if the pattern is a valid one, we could see $1.00 tested again. Good luck to fellow unitholders.

First REIT: Climbing the wall.

First REIT's unit price rose and closed at 76c today. It seems to have hit a wall. Looking at the daily chart and the EMAs, it is easy to see why. The 100dEMA is at 76c. EMAs give greater weightage to more recent prices and are useful in identifying shorter term resistance and supports.

Although the +DI is rising strongly and has the advantage and although the ADX seems to have begun rising as well, RSI and Stochastics have gone into overbought territories while the MFI could face resistance as it approaches its 50% line.

So, although there is little downside risk, upside could be capped. If 76c could be overcome successfully, the next resistance level is at 77c, the high achieved in January 2011. This is followed by 78.5c which is resistance provided by the 200dEMA.

Sabana REIT: Turning positive.

The last time I wrote about Sabana REIT exclusively was on 4 April when I mentioned that a positive divergence was rather obvious. I also mentioned that "a significant resistance presented by the declining 20dMA at 94c would have to be cleared first." The declining 20dMA has flattened at 93.5c by now and, today, price closed at 94.5c.

For the first time in a very long time, we see the +DI having the advantage. The MACD continues to rise above the signal line in negative territory while the MFI suggests that the REIT is still oversold. The RSI and the Stochastics have both bounced off their respective 50% line, suggesting that there is some support for this REIT at the current price level. We could be seeing the end of basing activity.

If we look at the daily chart, we can estimate the neckline of a potential double bottom formation to be at 95c. If we take the low of 92c and project the 3c difference from 95c, we would get an upside target of 98c. This is, of course, if the pattern is a valid one. With the REIT's manager due to make the announcement on its maiden income distribution in a matter of days, there is reason to believe that we could see its unit price moving higher rather than lower.

Golden Agriculture: Long term uptrend is intact.

I have felt bulllish about crude palm oil (CPO) since 2009 and made some money divesting my investment in Golden Agriculture in 2010 when its share price shot through the roof. With the fundamentals of CPO still strong and likely to strengthen with the higher price of crude, I am convinced that Golden Agriculture will do better in time and I traded its shares on a few occasions as well.

However, I refused to chase as Golden Agriculture's share price rose higher and hit a high of 83c on 4 January. In fact, I was warning readers of the glaring negative divergence which saw the MACD forming lower highs and the share price formed higher highs. Patience will be rewarded (usually) and today I got back in on the long side once again at 67c/share which is where we find the rising 200dMA.

If we remember how in the last two occasions when the 200dMA was tested, it failed to hold up, we would treat any buying at this support as a hedge. So? A smallish long position just in case it does hold up. Put in a larger buy position at the trendline support which I have drawn in red. This is a long term support which started on 26 May 2010. If this were to fail, the next long term support is the one which originated at the bottom on 28 Oct 2008. This trendline support, I have drawn in orange color. I will accumulate if there should be further weakness.

CapitaMalls Asia: At support.

CapitaMalls Asia retreated 5c or 2.7% today, closing at $1.79 after touching a low of $1.78. Question on the minds of many people would be whether it would go lower? Who knows for sure? Looking at the daily chart, it is clear that $1.78 is an important support defined by the 50dMA as well as the 61.8% Fibo fan line.

Looking at the ADX, the suggestion is that there is no trend per se. In such a situation, look to the Stochastics and we see that it is gently declining but it is not oversold. Look then to the OBV and it does not show any distribution. In fact, since 15 March, the picture is more of accumulation than distribution. The volume today was not very heavy although a black candle was formed. 

If we believe that CapitaMalls Asia has gone into a range as suggested by the horizontal orientation of the Bollinger bands, then, buying at the lower end of the range would make sense if it should happen at all. That is at $1.72. Keep an eye on $1.78. If it does not break, we could see price going higher and breaking the longer term trendline resistance eventually.

Why am I sanguine about the situation? If we look at the weekly chart, since the week of 14 March, in weeks when white candles were formed, trading volume was higher than in weeks when black candles or dojis were formed. This is encouraging for the bulls. The pull back is possibly a chance for accumulation.

First REIT: Breaking resistance.

To any chartist, it is clear that First REIT broke an important resistance at 74.5c in the last session. Volume expanded significantly on a day when a wickless white candle was formed.

With the MACD rising into positive territory and with the RSI rising from the borders of its oversold territory, we could be seeing the beginnings of an earnest attempt to move higher in price. We could see stronger resistance starting from 76c with 77c being a significant many times tested resistance which also approximates the 150% and 161.8% Fibo lines at 76.8c and 77.2c respectively.

Looking at the weekly chart, we see the rising 100wMA approximating the upper Bollinger band at 78c. Possible target? Why not? Declining 50wMA is at 82c. Possible target? Again, why not? However, this is the weekly chart. So, it gives us insights into the longer term picture. If price were to climb higher, it is going to do so on a wall of worries.

Related post:
First REIT: 1Q 2011 results.

Cache Logistics Trust: Weekly chart.

For quite a while now, I have been investing for income. However, friends and readers of my blogs in the early days would know that I am not averse to investing for capital gains as well. Logically, who would be averse to investing for capital gains?

For a longer term picture, I like to look at weekly charts. Looking at the weekly chart of Cache Logistics Trust, it is obvious that it has been in a downtrend for months, well, since mid September 2010. I feel that a rebound is probably on the cards, if not a reversal. Why? The MACD has formed a double bottom and the distance with the declining signal line has narrowed. We could see a bullish crossover in time although it would almost certainly happen in negative territory.

Next, look at the OBV. Since forming a low in the week of 21 February, it has not formed a lower low and this is although price went on to touch new lows. This suggests that smart money is accumulating units in this REIT as price weakened in the longer term.

In terms of candlesticks, a white hammer was formed last week. This is following the preceding week's big black candle. This is a bullish signal which, of course, needs confirmation. If confirmed, immediate resistance are at 95.5c (20wMA) and 96.5c (50wMA). Overcoming these resistance levels would give a target of 98.5c which is resistance currently provided by the trendline resistance which approximates the upper Bollinger band.

With the next income distribution due to be announced on 26 April, chances of an upward movement in unit price is rather good. I have been accumulating and wish fellow unitholders the best of luck.

Related post:
Cache Logistics Trust: Testing supports.

Tea with AK71: Dishonest merchant.

More than three years ago, I was given a present, a Canon IXUS 860 IS digital camera, in Hong Kong. It was, at the time, a somewhat expensive item.

Recently, the rechargeable battery was not holding its charge and even someone who is not savvy with high tech stuff like me knew that the battery probably had to be replaced. This is what the battery looks like:

When I showed the battery to a very good friend of mine, he told me that the battery is not a Canon original. I told him it came with the camera and it must be original. Well, my friend who is more tech savvy than I am told me firmly that he has quite a few Canon digital cameras and what I showed him was definitely not the real deal. Oh yes, I forgot to mention that this friend is also very rich.

Anyway, I was somewhat upset that my present, although given to me three years ago, probably suffered some monkey business at the hands of some dishonest merchant in Hong Kong!

As you can see from the photo above, the original from Canon, which I bought from Canon's showroom at Vivo City recently looks quite different from the battery that came with my camera. Price: S$89.00.

Dishonest merchants are everywhere. I ought to warn my friend in Hong Kong who bought this camera for me not to buy anything from that shop again, wherever they are.

Saizen REIT: A new loan.

More good news. Saizen REIT secured a new loan for the amount of JPY 500 million (S$7.5 million) from a Japanese financial institution, the Kumamoto Dai-ichi Shinkin Bank on 20 April 2011. This is for a term of almost 20 years up to 10 March 2031 and has an interest rate of 3.5% per annum.

The money was used towards the repayment of YK Shintoku's CMBS and taking into account YK Shintoku’s cash reserves, the net outstanding loan of YK Shintoku amounts to approximately JPY 0.7 billion (S$10.5 million).

The day when YK Shintoku would be unencumbered by any loan is drawing nearer by the day.

First REIT: 1Q 2011 results.

Feeling somewhat tired and was thinking of not checking my blog today. Then, I remember that First REIT would have announced their results this evening. All as well since I found some comments waiting for my replies. Would not do to make loyal readers wait too long. ;-)

First REIT delivered a set of results that is very much within expectations. I had expected a DPU of about 1.6c. It turned out to be 1.58c. Close enough. Gearing is at 13.8% which leaves the REIT plenty of room to gear up for future acquisitions. After all, the REIT plans to grow its portfolio from the current S$584.6 million to S$1 billion in the next 2 to 3 years.

Some numbers:
NAV/unit: 78.25c.
Interest cover ratio: 11.6x.
See presentation slides from AGM here.

The counter would go XD on 27 April 2011 and distribution would be made on 30 May 2011.

Could we see price moving higher from here? I am inclined to believe that it would although it should hit resistance at 76c to 77c in the immediate future if so.

Related post:
First REIT: Bought more at 73.5c.