First REIT: Partial divestment?

I like First REIT and it remains one of my largest investments. I like the low gearing and high yield. I like the strength of its sponsor and what it has planned for the future. In a blog post, I said fair value for First REIT is at 80c per unit. I still believe it to be so. In fact, I bought more at 73c and 73.5c in early April 2011.

Today, over lunch with some friends, there was mention of a bearish divergence in First REIT's chart. I decided that this bears looking into since LP, the blogmaster of Bully the Bear, who is definitely more accomplished in TA than I am recently divested some units at 76.5c. Indeed, in my blog post of 11 April 2011, I wondered whether First REIT could retest 77c, the high of January 2011 and if there is a bearish divergence, a partial divestment at 77c might not be a bad idea.

Looking at the daily chart, we see the declining 200dMA approximating 80c, a happy coincidence with my perceived fair value of the REIT per unit. However, the high of 77c in January 2011 is obviously a major resistance to overcome before a test of 80c is possible.

Price action is pushing the upper Bollinger and the momentum oscillators are bordering overbought. It seems that there is positive momentum and support. However, looking at the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), we get a hint of possible weakness to come.

The CMF is an oscillator that measures buying and selling pressure over a period of time. The CMF in this case has been negative and getting more so as price moved higher. This gives rise to a bearish divergence. Buying pressure has reduced. It could be, therefore, prudent to divest partially.

As usual, TA is about probability. If price were to break resistance at 77c and move higher, I expect strong resistance at 80c.  If price were to move lower, I expect strong support in the region of 74c. So, a partial divestment at 77c could mean possibly losing a further 3c gain or being able to buy back at 3c lower.

Related post:
First REIT: XR and fair value.
First REIT: Bought more at 73c.
First REIT: Bought more at 73.5c.

Should guys use hand moisturisers?

When I have a problem, I look for solutions. It does not matter if the solution is frowned upon by people sometimes because I am very practical. For example, for many years now, I have been using hand moisturisers. Are some of you frowning now? A guy using hand moisturiser? Well, if that's your reaction, you are a sexist! Think about it. ;)

Why did I start using hand moisturisers? For one reason, to prevent paper cuts! I work in an office which is air conditioned and has very dry air. As we grow older, our skin also gets drier. Working with documents and pushing paper daily, I was a victim of multiple paper cuts. Just the thought of it makes me cringe! Ouch! Solution? Use hand moisturisers. Keeping our skin moist and supple will reduce paper cut incidents.

Over the years, I have used many different hand moisturisers. I like Nivea and Jergens as they are inexpensive. Actually, from time to time, I would find these on special offer at Guardian Pharmacy. You could get a small tube for $1.95 and they are perfect to go in your briefcase, slingbag or handbag.  Of course, these days, we have manbags (i.e. the male version of handbags). Here is a photo of one I carry in my slingbag all the time:

I go to bed with the air-conditioning on the whole night and that is very drying. So, I use a moisturiser for the hands and feet before I go to sleep. For the feet too?  Yes, for the feet too. After a hard day at work with walking and standing, that's exactly what our feet need. Massage the moisturiser into our feet and we will feel a big difference before going to dreamland. For that, I use an "atas" (Malay for "upmarket") moisturiser from Aesop. Here is a photo of the pump size version which I have on my bedside table:

They also come in tubes which I buy for use when I travel and as gifts for friends. LP, the blogmaster of Bully the Bear, has threatened me with decapitation before because Mrs. LP likes the moisturiser so much that she has bought another two tubes thus far. Sigh, the unexpected perils of a well liked gift!

Another one which I like is from Body Shop. Now, I do not usually like products from Body Shop but I like this hand moisturiser because of the almond scent. I have a weakness for almond. It is less expensive compared to Aesop at less than half the price. I always wait for a sale at Body Shop before buying anything from them. Unlike products from Aesop, I do not think it is worth paying the full price for any Body Shop products.

If you are a guy and if you think that hand moisturisers are only for females, think again. ;-)


Extra Special Discounts Up to 45% Off

Related posts:
Tea with AK71: Hand sanitiser.

Golden Agriculture: Watch the 100dMA.

Golden Agriculture had another high volume white candle day but price could not close above the declining 100dMA and a long upper wick was formed in the process. This is the second time in the last few sessions which saw the 100dMA broken but, ultimately, remains the resistance to watch.

Could we see price moving higher in the next session, overcoming resistance provided by the declining 100dMA? We could. Could we see price being pushed lower in the next session and perhaps retest supports? We could.

Huh? What am I saying? The usual and that is TA is about probabilities and not certainties. At this moment, the odds are 50-50 that it could go either way.

What have I done? Seeing strong resistance at 71c, the last high, I did a partial divestment today at 70.5c. If price were to weaken from here to retest supports, I would buy more. If price were to move higher, I have more to sell.

If price were to move higher, we could see 72c and 73.5c tested as resistance. Ultimately, we could see gap cover at 76c. Sounds good? However, if price were to move lower, expect immediate support to be at 69c, followed by 67.5c.

No matter how bullish analysts are, I would be cautious here as a possible head and shoulders formation is obvious in the chart. Therefore, without a higher high (i.e. higher than 73.5c), we are still on thin ice.

Related posts:
NOL and Golden Agriculture.
Golden Agriculture: Divestment at 70.5c.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REITs: Buy ups!

It is widely acknowledged even amongst private investors that Singapore's industrial real estate provides probably the highest yields compared to all other classes of real estate. Personally, I know of some really rich people who own one or a few industrial properties in Singapore. As I am not in the same league, I seek exposure through investments in industrial properties S-REITs.

I would draw your attention to a couple of past blog posts and if you have missed reading these, you might want to check them out:
1. Higher rents to benefit industrial properties S-REITs
(7 April 2011).
2. Industrial rent forecasts strongest for Singapore.
(17 April 2011).

Buying units of REITs which are trading below NAV is still something I do with the exception of Cache Logistics Trust which I bought at a smallish premium to NAV. I usually go for industrial properties S-REITs offering higher distribution yields, preferably closer to 10% per annum (adding to my investment in AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT when its price hit 19.5c and 20c in recent past and buying heavily into Sabana REIT in the last two weeks as its price hit a low of 90c).

Currently, I have investments in the following industrial properties S-REITs:

1. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT
2. Sabana REIT
3. Cache Logistics Trust
4. Cambridge Industrial Trust

Of the four, I am only interested in adding to Sabana REIT for reasons I discussed in an earlier blog post. Please read it here. I also said that I am waiting for an opportunity to partially divest my stake in AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and to move the funds into Sabana REIT. The opportunity should take the form of a rebound and when resistance is tested.

Remember I blogged about my disappointment in Cambridge Industrial Trust in an earlier blog post? It did not mean that I would dump my units at whatever price available at that point in time. I meant that I would divest at a price which is to my advantage. There is a time to buy and a time to sell. We can only hope that we get them right.

I was somewhat saddened when some readers told me that they sold away their units in the Trust after reading my blog post and the counter was still trading CD at the time. Read blog post here.

Now, with AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, we are seeing consistent buying ups for two sessions now. Today, a dragonfly doji was formed with 4,851 lots bought up at 21.5c and only 43 lots sold down at 21c.

Could the reverse head and shoulders I blogged about on 18 May be valid? Read blog post here. If valid, it would provide a chance for me to partially divest my stake in the REIT.

NOL and Golden Agriculture.

Today, my buy order for NOL at $1.80 was filled. NOL is in a persistent downtrend. Why am I buying more shares at $1.80 a piece? Well, it seems to me that a positive divergence is forming. As price broke the previous low formed on 5 May 2011, volume reduced comparatively. Sellers are less enthusiastic this time round.

The MACD histograms seem to be forming a higher low while the MACD has not turned up yet but could form a higher low too. A rebound could see a test of $1.88 as resistance in the near term. If it should happen, I would reduce my long position in the stock.

Today, my buy order for Golden Agriculture at 67c was also filled. This is at 1 bid higher than the support at 66.5c I identified in an earlier blog post. A hedge, nothing more. Why? Remember that I said we could be seeing the early stages of a head and shoulders formation when the price failed to form a higher high (that is higher than 73.5c)? I said that the neckline of that potential formation is at 65c. This case is still a possibility.

Of course, TA is about probability, not certainty, and we should make our moves accordingly. Today's white hammer formation is promising with price closing at 68.5c on relatively high volume. If price were to continue moving higher, immediate resistance is found at 70c. Closing above 70c could see 72c tested next.

Indofood Agri: A crash by any other word.

Indofood Agri's decision to list PT SIMP, its subsidiary, could lead to earnings dilution and we could see EPS reducing by as much as 12%. This is according to Goldman Sachs. Indofood Agri's share price, however, declined some 15.7% today, closing at $1.72 after touching a low of $1.69. Could there be an opportunity to buy some shares on the cheap?

I do not understand what is going on sufficiently and how the valuation is being carried out. Therefore, I will avoid. Good luck to anyone vested.

Indofood Agri falls on unit’s IPO pricing. “The IPO could pose downside risks to our IFAR earnings estimates through potential EPS dilution, as well as possible holding company discount once its main operating asset is listed separately,” said Goldman Sachs in a report.
Monday, 23 May 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

STI, Golden Agriculture, Capitaland and CapitaMalls Asia.

The STI closed 58.06 points lower at 3,110.48. There is probably some pain and some panic in the air and we have the usual doomsayers out in force today. So, going by what I have said, am I a bull more than a bear? I am neither a bull nor a bear. I like to think that I am a pragmatist.

Most of my portfolio is made up of REITs. Today, we see AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, Sabana REIT, Cache Logistics Trust, First REIT, LMIR, Suntec REIT and even Saizen REIT holding up rather nicely. So, I am not really affected by the sell off.

So, what did I do today?

1. Bought some Golden Agriculture shares at 68.5c a piece. You might remember that I said I sold all my shares in this company by mistake. I really want to keep some of its shares, believing in the longer term future of crude palm oil. The share price closed at 69c today.

I am not firing all my guns yet because we have to be wary of a potential head and shoulders formation. The neckline of this formation approximates 65c. If 65c were to be tested successfully on lower volume, we could add more aggressively to our long positions believing that, probably, the longer term uptrend is still intact. Of course, there is no way of knowing. So, I hedge by buying at supports. 66.5c support, if tested, would see me buying more. After all, buying at supports in an uptrend is conventional wisdom.

2. Although the trading volume of Capitaland increased today compared to the session before, it is still quite low if we compare it to 11 and 12 May which were black candle days too. Today, a black spinning top was formed and this is a reversal signal.  It needs confirmation, of course. Well, will price move lower? It could, of course. Keep an eye on $3.08, the previous low. It has to hold up in order for price to have a better chance of a near term rebound.

I bought more shares at $3.10 a piece today. This is a hedge as a retest of the previous low is a relatively safe entry as I am, after all, buying at supports. However, bearing in mind that supports can easily become resistance in a downtrend, the additional investment is a smallish one.

3. There is some similarity between CapitaMalls Asia's chart and Capitaland's. The volume is relatively lower compared to the volume back when the previous low was formed. I am also on the lookout for a possible positive divergence between the MACD and price.

I bought more shares at $1.60 a piece today as there seems to be a lot of fear in the air.

Allgreen: Privatisation offer at $1.60 per share.

I did a piece on Allgreen Properties on 12 April 2011. It seems that I have missed the boat ... for good. Well, these things happen. Absolutely no way to tell. Congratulations to all vested.

Read the post here.

Malaysian billionaire Kuok offers to buy rest of Allgreen stock. Brookvale Investments, owned by members of the Kuok group of companies, offered $1.60 in cash for each share in Singapore-based Allgreen, according to a filing by the developer to the Singapore exchange today. The stock last traded at $1.15.
Monday, 23 May 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore