Indofood Agri: Rebounding.

Indofood Agri Resources assured investors that PT SIMP’s listing will not dilute its earnings as much as analysts had feared. So, is this a good time to go picking up some shares of the company?

A long white candle was formed on the back of high volume today as price broke resistance at $1.69 to close higher at $1.71. The MFI and RSI have been spotting a positive divergence with its declining share price and we could see the rebound in price test the next resistance at $1.78.

This counter's downtrend is still very much intact and if I were to go long here, I would choose to do so as close to the immediate support of $1.69 as possible. I would also watch the declining 20dMA and the trendline resistance as possible price targets for divestment. Good luck to all involved.

Indofood Agri up after it downplays unit’s IPO.

Indofood Agri said its earnings per share in 2010 will be 835 rupiah ($0.12) after the IPO, down from 974 rupiah previously. However, its net asset value per shares after the listing would rise to 7,843 rupiah from 7,605 rupiah.

Wednesday, 01 June 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Hyflux: $800 million bridge loan (UPDATED JULY 2018).

In 2011, I wished all Hyflux investors good luck.

Now, 2018, again, I wish them good luck because they need it more now than ever.

I have always been concerned by how Hyflux kept borrowing money (and why their cost of borrowing was always relatively high in an environment of very low interest rates).

I also said that I would not lend Hyflux any money.

Chat with a reader in Nov 2017.

Being a retiree, I feel sorry for the retirees who put in a lot of their money in Hyflux.

I just hope that they did not put all their eggs in the same basket.






A retiree wanted more updates on the divestment of the plant and what that means when the 4.25 per cent bonds that he had invested S$250,000 into mature this September.

“There isn’t a conclusion and everything still hinges on the sale of Tuaspring and at what price. But my investment is due in September and that’s what I’m most concerned about,” he told Channel NewsAsia.

“I’m retired so this was going to be a key part of my income but now, not just the income, I have to be worried about my capital. My kids are going to university soon so I have to figure another way out.” 

Source:
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/hyflux-shareholders-townhall-meet-management-first-time-10545662






----------
It was not so long ago that Hyflux offered $200 million of perpetual preference shares. 

At that time, I wondered why Hyflux had to pay a 6% annual dividend yield on those shares.

6% seemed a tad expensive to me in an environment where interest rates are very low. 

I concluded that Hyflux could be having some difficulty getting long term financing from financial institutions at even an interest rate of 6% per annum.

Now, Hyflux has approached a group of banks for a $800 million bridge loan. 



Bridge loans are usually short term in nature (i.e. not more than a year) and are usually perceived as lower risk and would attract a lower interest rate.






There is no question that Hyflux is a growth company and one with huge capital expenditure requirements. 

It could turn out very nicely for shareholders if its business chugs along as planned. 

Good luck to all shareholders.






-->

Hyflux said to approach banks for $800m bridge loan Wednesday, 01 June 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Related post: 
Hyflux director divested all his shares!

First REIT: MSCI Singapore Index.

The reason for First REIT's strong performance in recent sessions is now apparent:

First Real Estate Investment Trust says it has been included in the MSCI Singapore Index with effect from 1 June 2011.

MSCI is a leading provider of investment decision support tools worldwide, including indices, portfolio risk and performance analytics and corporate governance services.

The MSCI indices are among the most widely tracked global equity benchmarks covering companies with good operational results and growth prospects. By being a constituent stock on the MSCI Singapore Index, First REIT can be better tracked by a wider group of institutional investors and funds on a global platform.

First REIT's unit price failed to close higher today. Could it be a case of "sell on news"? A long legged doji formed today and this is ominous as it suggests indecision in an uptrend. A pull back could find immediate support at 77c, a previously many times tested resistance.

Immediate resistance at 80c was tested today with only 1 trade of 3 lots done. I am still in the queue to sell some at 80c and 80.5c. A pull back to the longer term support would see me buying more.

Related post:
First REIT: Partial divestment at 77c and 79c.

First REIT makes it to MSCI Singapore index
Wednesday, 01 June 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Sabana REIT: Global Small-Cap Indices.

It seems that Sabana REIT will no longer be unloved and the following development probably explains the after market large volume buy up at 94c per unit in the last session:

Sabana Real Estate Investment Management Pte. Ltd., the Manager of Sabana Shari’ah Compliant Industrial Real Estate Investment Trust (“Sabana REIT”), announces that Sabana REIT has been included in the Morgan Stanley Capital International “(MSCI”) Global Small-Cap Indices.

Commenting on Sabana REIT’s inclusion in the MSCI Global Small-Cap Indices, Mr Kevin Xayaraj, Chief Executive Officer and Executive Director of the Manager, said, “The MSCI Indices are widely tracked global equity benchmarks covering companies with good operational results and potential. The inclusion puts Sabana REIT onto the ‘radar screens’ of a much wider group of institutional investors and funds seeking value and performance from markets round the world. We are greatly encouraged to have achieved this major milestone and feel very honored for Sabana REIT to be selected as one of the constituent stocks, considering that it has been listed for only six months.”

Read annoucement here.

With greater exposure to international investors, this could only be good thing for the REIT. Sabana REIT is my second largest investment, together with First REIT, when I last looked. I am looking forward to possibly stronger unit prices in time to come.

Related post:
Sabana REIT: Resistance at 93c demolished.

Saizen REIT: YK Shintoku's CMBS repaid.

The Board of Directors of Japan Residential Assets Manager Limited, the manager (the “Manager”) of Saizen Real Estate Investment Trust ("Saizen REIT"), is pleased to announce that the loan of YK Shintoku had been fully repaid on 31 May 2011 (the “Repayment”).

Following the completion of the Repayment and the cancellation of the mortgage over YK Shintoku’s property portfolio, YK Shintoku’s portfolio of 27 properties which is valued at approximately JPY 4.3 billion (S$65.6 million) will become unencumbered. Together with the property portfolios of YK Keizan, YK Shingen and GK Chosei, the total value of Saizen REIT’s unencumbered properties will amount to approximately JPY 14.9 billion (S$227.5 million).

After the Repayment, Saizen REIT’s borrowings comprise five loans amounting to approximately JPY 9.0 billion (S$137.4 million), with the nearest loan maturity due in June 2013. Saizen REIT’s gearing after the Repayment is approximately 24%.  

Verify announcement here.

This is, of course, what I have been waiting for since I started investing in this REIT in late 2009. It is really a pity that the triple disasters hit Japan when it did. Otherwise, I have no doubt that Saizen REIT's unit price would be much higher than it is now.

As it is now, technically, further upside could be capped at 15.5c while downside could be limited at 14.5c. Could the repayment of YK Shintoku's CMBS provide a strong enough catalyst for the REIT's unit price to breakout on the upside?

Related post:
Saizen REIT: Sanity prevails with more good news.

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Golden Agriculture: Accumulate on weakness.

I plan to accumulate Golden Agriculture on weakness. This would mean at 67.5c support as provided by the trendline support connecting the lows of 6 and 25 May 2011. I would not, however, throw in the kitchen sink. This is because if 67.5c should break and if price were to close lower, we could see price going to 65c and the long term uptrend would still be intact. Buy more at 65c is what I would do if that should happen.

The ADX suggests a lack of trend for Golden Agriculture's share price. In such a situation, I look to the Stochastics for clues. With it closer to the overbought region and forming a lower high although price touched a higher high at 71.5c, the chance of a further decline in price is high.

However, the decline in price in the last two sessions were on the back of lowering volume. This paints a picture of a low volume pullback. So, although further price decline could take place, it could take place due to a lack of buyers and not an increase in sellers. Indeed, the CMF shows a decline in buying pressure but not an increase in selling pressure.

Related post:
Golden Agriculture: Watch the 100dMA.

Sabana REIT: Resistance at 93c demolished!

After the market closed, sleepy and some might even say unloved Sabana REIT saw 2,514 lots bought up at 94c which led to a wickless white candle being formed on higher volume, breaking resistance provided by the declining 50dMA like a hot knife on butter!

The bullish divergence between MACD and price action has delivered and did so in a smashing manner. A test of the declining 100dMA as resistance is most likely and we could see 95c and 95.5c tested next. Although there is no bearish divergence to speak of, locking in some gains is a tempting proposition. I might just divest partially in the face of a rapid appreciation in price.

Related post: Sabana REIT: Still waiting for a 10% yield?

First REIT: Partial divestments at 77c and 79c.

I mentioned on Sunday that First REIT could see 77c tested soon and it did so with aplomb today. Indeed, it went on to close higher at 79c on the back of much higher volume with a total of 3,413 lots changing hands.

With 1,022 lots bought up at 79c after the market closed, there is a good chance that price could test resistance provided by the declining 200dMA at 80c in the next session. Actually, to be exact, the 200dMA would be at 80.5c in the next session and that is also where we find the 161.8% Fibo line. 80c is where we find the 150% Fibo line.

Today, I sold some units at 77c and at 79c, respectively the immediate resistance and 2 bids lower than the resistance at 80c identified in my previous blog post on the REIT. Selling at resistance is conventional wisdom but in an uptrend we could see resistance become support. The bearish divergence between the CMF and price action has been negated with today's explosive move upwards in price. Buying pressure has intensified suddenly and fiercely. Could 77c become the new support? Would I continue to sell more?

The 200dMA is a long term moving average and I expect it to provide significant resistance. At 80c, we would also see distribution yield of First REIT decline to just 8%. Beyond 80c, its yield falls below 8%. I would queue to sell some at 80c and 80.5c but I would not divest fully on the off chance that price action might overcome resistance provided by the 200dMA and push higher.

Related post:
First REIT: Partial divestment?

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First REIT: Partial divestment?

I like First REIT and it remains one of my largest investments. I like the low gearing and high yield. I like the strength of its sponsor and what it has planned for the future. In a blog post, I said fair value for First REIT is at 80c per unit. I still believe it to be so. In fact, I bought more at 73c and 73.5c in early April 2011.

Today, over lunch with some friends, there was mention of a bearish divergence in First REIT's chart. I decided that this bears looking into since LP, the blogmaster of Bully the Bear, who is definitely more accomplished in TA than I am recently divested some units at 76.5c. Indeed, in my blog post of 11 April 2011, I wondered whether First REIT could retest 77c, the high of January 2011 and if there is a bearish divergence, a partial divestment at 77c might not be a bad idea.

Looking at the daily chart, we see the declining 200dMA approximating 80c, a happy coincidence with my perceived fair value of the REIT per unit. However, the high of 77c in January 2011 is obviously a major resistance to overcome before a test of 80c is possible.

Price action is pushing the upper Bollinger and the momentum oscillators are bordering overbought. It seems that there is positive momentum and support. However, looking at the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), we get a hint of possible weakness to come.

The CMF is an oscillator that measures buying and selling pressure over a period of time. The CMF in this case has been negative and getting more so as price moved higher. This gives rise to a bearish divergence. Buying pressure has reduced. It could be, therefore, prudent to divest partially.

As usual, TA is about probability. If price were to break resistance at 77c and move higher, I expect strong resistance at 80c.  If price were to move lower, I expect strong support in the region of 74c. So, a partial divestment at 77c could mean possibly losing a further 3c gain or being able to buy back at 3c lower.

Related post:
First REIT: XR and fair value.
First REIT: Bought more at 73c.
First REIT: Bought more at 73.5c.

Should guys use hand moisturisers?

When I have a problem, I look for solutions. It does not matter if the solution is frowned upon by people sometimes because I am very practical. For example, for many years now, I have been using hand moisturisers. Are some of you frowning now? A guy using hand moisturiser? Well, if that's your reaction, you are a sexist! Think about it. ;)

Why did I start using hand moisturisers? For one reason, to prevent paper cuts! I work in an office which is air conditioned and has very dry air. As we grow older, our skin also gets drier. Working with documents and pushing paper daily, I was a victim of multiple paper cuts. Just the thought of it makes me cringe! Ouch! Solution? Use hand moisturisers. Keeping our skin moist and supple will reduce paper cut incidents.

Over the years, I have used many different hand moisturisers. I like Nivea and Jergens as they are inexpensive. Actually, from time to time, I would find these on special offer at Guardian Pharmacy. You could get a small tube for $1.95 and they are perfect to go in your briefcase, slingbag or handbag.  Of course, these days, we have manbags (i.e. the male version of handbags). Here is a photo of one I carry in my slingbag all the time:

I go to bed with the air-conditioning on the whole night and that is very drying. So, I use a moisturiser for the hands and feet before I go to sleep. For the feet too?  Yes, for the feet too. After a hard day at work with walking and standing, that's exactly what our feet need. Massage the moisturiser into our feet and we will feel a big difference before going to dreamland. For that, I use an "atas" (Malay for "upmarket") moisturiser from Aesop. Here is a photo of the pump size version which I have on my bedside table:

They also come in tubes which I buy for use when I travel and as gifts for friends. LP, the blogmaster of Bully the Bear, has threatened me with decapitation before because Mrs. LP likes the moisturiser so much that she has bought another two tubes thus far. Sigh, the unexpected perils of a well liked gift!

Another one which I like is from Body Shop. Now, I do not usually like products from Body Shop but I like this hand moisturiser because of the almond scent. I have a weakness for almond. It is less expensive compared to Aesop at less than half the price. I always wait for a sale at Body Shop before buying anything from them. Unlike products from Aesop, I do not think it is worth paying the full price for any Body Shop products.

If you are a guy and if you think that hand moisturisers are only for females, think again. ;-)


Extra Special Discounts Up to 45% Off

Related posts:
Tea with AK71: Hand sanitiser.

Golden Agriculture: Watch the 100dMA.

Golden Agriculture had another high volume white candle day but price could not close above the declining 100dMA and a long upper wick was formed in the process. This is the second time in the last few sessions which saw the 100dMA broken but, ultimately, remains the resistance to watch.

Could we see price moving higher in the next session, overcoming resistance provided by the declining 100dMA? We could. Could we see price being pushed lower in the next session and perhaps retest supports? We could.

Huh? What am I saying? The usual and that is TA is about probabilities and not certainties. At this moment, the odds are 50-50 that it could go either way.

What have I done? Seeing strong resistance at 71c, the last high, I did a partial divestment today at 70.5c. If price were to weaken from here to retest supports, I would buy more. If price were to move higher, I have more to sell.

If price were to move higher, we could see 72c and 73.5c tested as resistance. Ultimately, we could see gap cover at 76c. Sounds good? However, if price were to move lower, expect immediate support to be at 69c, followed by 67.5c.

No matter how bullish analysts are, I would be cautious here as a possible head and shoulders formation is obvious in the chart. Therefore, without a higher high (i.e. higher than 73.5c), we are still on thin ice.

Related posts:
NOL and Golden Agriculture.
Golden Agriculture: Divestment at 70.5c.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REITs: Buy ups!

It is widely acknowledged even amongst private investors that Singapore's industrial real estate provides probably the highest yields compared to all other classes of real estate. Personally, I know of some really rich people who own one or a few industrial properties in Singapore. As I am not in the same league, I seek exposure through investments in industrial properties S-REITs.

I would draw your attention to a couple of past blog posts and if you have missed reading these, you might want to check them out:
1. Higher rents to benefit industrial properties S-REITs
(7 April 2011).
2. Industrial rent forecasts strongest for Singapore.
(17 April 2011).

Buying units of REITs which are trading below NAV is still something I do with the exception of Cache Logistics Trust which I bought at a smallish premium to NAV. I usually go for industrial properties S-REITs offering higher distribution yields, preferably closer to 10% per annum (adding to my investment in AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT when its price hit 19.5c and 20c in recent past and buying heavily into Sabana REIT in the last two weeks as its price hit a low of 90c).

Currently, I have investments in the following industrial properties S-REITs:

1. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT
2. Sabana REIT
3. Cache Logistics Trust
4. Cambridge Industrial Trust

Of the four, I am only interested in adding to Sabana REIT for reasons I discussed in an earlier blog post. Please read it here. I also said that I am waiting for an opportunity to partially divest my stake in AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and to move the funds into Sabana REIT. The opportunity should take the form of a rebound and when resistance is tested.

Remember I blogged about my disappointment in Cambridge Industrial Trust in an earlier blog post? It did not mean that I would dump my units at whatever price available at that point in time. I meant that I would divest at a price which is to my advantage. There is a time to buy and a time to sell. We can only hope that we get them right.

I was somewhat saddened when some readers told me that they sold away their units in the Trust after reading my blog post and the counter was still trading CD at the time. Read blog post here.

Now, with AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, we are seeing consistent buying ups for two sessions now. Today, a dragonfly doji was formed with 4,851 lots bought up at 21.5c and only 43 lots sold down at 21c.

Could the reverse head and shoulders I blogged about on 18 May be valid? Read blog post here. If valid, it would provide a chance for me to partially divest my stake in the REIT.