NOL: Moving average envelope.

NOL suffered heavy selling today and touched a low of $1.71 before closing at $1.73. Such an intense sell down could see a follow through the next day.

However, it is interesting to see that despite the heavy selling pressure, we still have the potential for a positive divergence to form. Much would depend the price action in the next session.

The lower range of the moving average envelope should provide some support at $1.68 in the event of further selling down. Any recovery in price could see gap cover at $1.82. The way I look at it, anyone who is still thinking of shorting NOL at the current prices should think twice.

I would probably add to my long position by purchasing at $1.68 if it should be tested as support. Downtrends are rivers of hope.

Investing in REITs: A flawed strategy?

I have been told by some that my strategy of investing in REITs is a flawed one. I am also sure that there is no paucity of investment blogs out there saying that one should avoid REITs as they are always hungry for funds and are likely to go hat in hand to unitholders regularly or indulge in private placements.

If I were to be in the mood, I would pen short comments to correct what I feel are bias thoughts. Of course, if the writer should be downright rude, I would return measure for measure. There is always room for discussion and even room to disagree. However, I take a very dim view of bigotry and bad behaviour.

One of the catalysts for the above paragraphs is an article I read in The EDGE regarding Olam's raising US$600 million through selling of more shares. This, I have no doubt, would dilute the interests of minority shareholders.

To the people who would avoid REITs but would invest in companies like Olam instead, I wonder how is Olam different in such an instance? Raising funds to buy more income generating assets sounds like a strategy for growth which any REIT might pursue.

Personally, my investments in REITs have done very well in the last two years with the exception of Saizen REIT but we know why that was so. If we are making money in our investments, we must be doing something right. However, we have to remain vigilant to ensure that our investments remain in good health. This is true whether we are invested in REITs or companies.

Olam International said to raise US$600m in share offer: Update
Monday, 06 June 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

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GLP versus ProLogis.

I was just reading an article in The EDGE and wonder what this would mean for GLP and its shareholders:

"GLP was listed on the SGX last year after it acquired the Japanese and Chinese portfolio of Prologis with the Singapore Government Investment Corp. (GIC) in 2008.

 "Last December, GLP had to clarify that it did not disclose during IPO that a non-compete agreement with ProLogis was due to expire this February as the deal requires GLP not compete with ProLogis in Japan while ProLogis reciprocally does not compete in GLP’s core market of China.

 "The clarification was made in response to a report in The Business Times that the prospectus for GLP’s initial public offer last October did not specifically disclose that the non-compete agreement was expiring in a couple of months."

Question. Was the non-disclosure misrepresentation on the part of GLP during its IPO? This is especially grave if the information omitted could have serious consequences for GLP's shareholders. I learned in business law many years ago that misrepresentation by omission is just as grave as misrepresentation through the giving of false information.

From a purely business perspective, I wonder how things would pan out in the next few years as ProLogis becomes more aggressive in its pursuit of growth in Asia. Is GLP up to the challenge? It did buy ProLogis' assets. I liken this to Akira asking an OEM to produce its products. Obviously, the OEM is the party with the knowledge and the production capabilities. If the OEM were to offer its products directly to the market, it could do so with an in-house brand and at a more competitive price. Consolation? Akira has a more established brand name but see what good it did for Akira? Did GLP have enough time to establish a strong brand name?

Of course, I am just thinking aloud here and playing the Devil's advocate. I am throwing the floor open to anyone, vested or not vested in GLP, to share any pertinent thoughts on the matter.

Prologis to double Asian holdings after biggest REIT deal
Saturday, 04 June 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Related post:
GLP: A falling dagger?

Of primates and their diet!

The title of this blog post belies the gravity of the subject on hand. Before we go into the subject proper, a bit of background information is necessary for the uninitiated.

Some might know of an infamous cbox owned by LP, the blogmaster of Bully the Bear. LP is a very decent sort of chap and is always concerned about people, having their best interests at heart. LP is also G.O.D. (Gorilla of Design) in his realm (i.e. his blog and cbox).

G.O.D.? Yes, LP is able to decide on how things look, how emoticons should be abbreviated and how abbreviations would turn out in his cbox. Most of the time, he is a benign G.O.D. but he is fully capable of dishing out caustic remarks and more. He also has the ability to excommunicate any recalcitrant cboxer and eradicate spamsters! Now, that is power!

In the zoo that is LP's cbox, there are larger primates of the gorilla class and smaller primates of the spider monkey class.  I am sure there are also baboons, orang utans and, maybe, a Yeti or two. The primates of different sizes represent investors and traders of different financial means.

In the cbox, we also refer to Sabana REIT as banana REIT just for fun. I cannot remember who started it but it was probably by some disgruntled investor who bought into the REIT at $1.05 a piece thereabouts. Some have referred to it as an expensive banana.

Regular readers would know that I blog about Sabana REIT regularly, starting from its IPO days. However, I only initiated a long position at 92.5c a piece, weeks before it started trading CD with a maiden DPU of about 3c. This was where FA and TA married nicely. FA identified a good undevalued buy and TA gave some hints as to when to buy. If only I am so consistent every time.

Last night, someone whom I believe to be of gorilla class in LP's cbox told me that I was being "suan" (Hokkien for "teased") by a fellow blogger. I went to read the blog post and I share LP's opinion that the blogger was most probably trying to warn spider monkeys to behave like spider monkeys and not behave like gorillas. So, a gorilla might be able to eat a few kgs of bananas in one sitting, a spider monkey could suffer from heartburn doing the same thing or worse! This is generally good advice, of course.

Then again, I have met spider monkeys with great appetites. They could eat a lot of bananas and not grow fat, avoiding the complications of over-eating. Some might say that the complications could come much later in life. Well, this could indeed be the case.

What do I think? Personally, if I have identified something which I believe is a winner, I would go in big. By this, I mean building up my position in the company to be at least 10% of my total portfolio. I am also not averse to building it up to be 20% or more of my total portfolio.

I remember a time when my portfolio size was much smaller, ST Engineering and SPH were the lion share of my total portfolio. In mid 2009 to early 2010, Healthway Medical, Golden Agriculture and Saizen REIT formed the lion share of my total portfolio. How did I do? Quite well, I believe.

However, the recent triple disasters to hit Japan dealt a blow to my investment in Saizen REIT which by that time was about 40% of my total portfolio. 40%? Yes, I liked the fundamentals and I liked the turnaround story which did finally pan out by end of May 2011 with YK Shintoku's CMBS fully repaid.

Unfortunately for me, the triple disaster wrecked a picture of recovery, technically and fundamentally. Informed by TA, I partially divested my investment in the REIT and suffered a small loss. This is a pitfall of a strategy of concentration as compared to diversification. Potential rewards are greater but the level of risk would be proportionally higher. So, we have to stay nimble as circumstances are fluid. This applies to all primates, from gorillas to spider monkeys.

In conclusion, if a spider monkey sees a gorilla wolfing down bunches of bananas and if the spider monkey wants to eat just as many bananas, it could. If it did, I would not say that it would, for sure, suffer from indigestion since it could be a spider monkey with a huge appetite although it might. I would say that it could suffer from malnutrition because it might not have seen what other food the gorilla could be eating as well. Primates are, after all, omnivores.

Oh, if anyone is interested to know, my overnight buy order for more Sabana REIT units at 92c was filled this morning.

Capitaland, CapitaMalls Asia and NOL.

This is going to be a quick blog post as I am feeling somewhat enervated this evening.

Capitaland is causing some people some concern. Is the price going to retreat further after touching a new low of $3.07? I believe questions like this are futile. Nobody knows the answer. TA is about probability after all.

However, we can say that chances of a rebound, if not a reversal, are higher now. With a lower low in price, the MACD spots a higher low. Yes, we have a positive divergence. However, it does not mean that price could not go lower, mind you.

In the event that the positive divergence delivers the goods, look to the declining 50d and 100d MAs for resistance, currently at $3.28 and $3.37 respectively.

CapitaMalls Asia saw volume increasing significantly today with its previous low at $1.57 tested, forming a  black candle in the process. It remains to be seen if $1.57 could hold up as support or, if a lower low were to form, whether the MACD could spot a higher low. Yes, looking out for a positive divergence.

Things look pretty dicey right now.

NOL is yet another counter which is spotting a positive divergence. Lower low in the share price but a higher low in the MACD. However, with such a persistent downtrend and with a narrow trading range, it could take a mammoth effort for share price to break resistance provided by the declining 50dMA in case of a reversal effort.

Let's see if the share price could open and close higher than $1.81 (today's high) in the next session. If successful, we could have a morning star setup, a three stick reversal pattern. That would be promising.

NOL completes US$1.1b loan agreements
Thursday, 02 June 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Tea with AK71: A loaf of bread.

I enjoy convenience and I have told quite a few people that I do not like to spend too much time preparing food or eating. Food to me is a necessity. That, very much, is it.

However, I do enjoy spending hours in a nice restaurant with good company. It is the company that makes it worthwhile for me in such instances.

Some of my earlier blog posts on the types of low cost food I enjoy attracted myriad comments, some encouraging, some discouraging and quite a few incredulous! Well, here is another.

I have been trying to avoid wheat because it is bad for my blood type, apparently. Unfortunately, I like bread very much and I particularly like those with raisins!

Raisins are good for my blood type and maybe, they would cancel out the negative effects of wheat. Oh, this loaf has rolled oats as well and oats are good for my blood type too. Two against one! This loaf of bread has my stamp of approval!

Blood type diet aside, this is a loaf of bread that is loaded with goodness. Periodically, I would buy a loaf and it would usually last me 2 to 3 days. 2 slices and I am full. There are about 10 slices or so per loaf. So, that makes 5 meals for me.

Cost? This loaf of bread usually retails at S$2.95 each. It was going for S$2.50 each at NTUC Fairprice. I don't know if  the special offer is still on though.

Convenient, low cost and something I enjoy. This formula never fails. :)

FSL Trust: Acquisition.

Nothing much has been happening to FSL Trust lately although its unit price has suffered from weakness. I suspect that the weakness of the US$ and the shipping sector as a whole could have been a dampener.

The latest news is an acquisition of a "Long Range II (LR2) product tanker from TORM Singapore, a wholly-owned subsidiary of TORM A/S for US$46 million ($56.7 million).... The transaction will be immediately cash flow accretive to the trust and will increase the trust’s total remaining contracted revenue to US$602 million, excluding extension options. The average remaining lease term of the trust’s portfolio will also remain at the current 6.8 years."

Will this be a positive catalyst enough to send its unit price higher?

First Ship Lease Trust to acquire long-range tanker for $57m
Wednesday, 01 June 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Indofood Agri: Rebounding.

Indofood Agri Resources assured investors that PT SIMP’s listing will not dilute its earnings as much as analysts had feared. So, is this a good time to go picking up some shares of the company?

A long white candle was formed on the back of high volume today as price broke resistance at $1.69 to close higher at $1.71. The MFI and RSI have been spotting a positive divergence with its declining share price and we could see the rebound in price test the next resistance at $1.78.

This counter's downtrend is still very much intact and if I were to go long here, I would choose to do so as close to the immediate support of $1.69 as possible. I would also watch the declining 20dMA and the trendline resistance as possible price targets for divestment. Good luck to all involved.

Indofood Agri up after it downplays unit’s IPO.

Indofood Agri said its earnings per share in 2010 will be 835 rupiah ($0.12) after the IPO, down from 974 rupiah previously. However, its net asset value per shares after the listing would rise to 7,843 rupiah from 7,605 rupiah.

Wednesday, 01 June 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Hyflux: $800 million bridge loan (UPDATED JULY 2018).

In 2011, I wished all Hyflux investors good luck.

Now, 2018, again, I wish them good luck because they need it more now than ever.

I have always been concerned by how Hyflux kept borrowing money (and why their cost of borrowing was always relatively high in an environment of very low interest rates).

I also said that I would not lend Hyflux any money.

Chat with a reader in Nov 2017.

Being a retiree, I feel sorry for the retirees who put in a lot of their money in Hyflux.

I just hope that they did not put all their eggs in the same basket.






A retiree wanted more updates on the divestment of the plant and what that means when the 4.25 per cent bonds that he had invested S$250,000 into mature this September.

“There isn’t a conclusion and everything still hinges on the sale of Tuaspring and at what price. But my investment is due in September and that’s what I’m most concerned about,” he told Channel NewsAsia.

“I’m retired so this was going to be a key part of my income but now, not just the income, I have to be worried about my capital. My kids are going to university soon so I have to figure another way out.” 

Source:
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/hyflux-shareholders-townhall-meet-management-first-time-10545662






----------
It was not so long ago that Hyflux offered $200 million of perpetual preference shares. 

At that time, I wondered why Hyflux had to pay a 6% annual dividend yield on those shares.

6% seemed a tad expensive to me in an environment where interest rates are very low. 

I concluded that Hyflux could be having some difficulty getting long term financing from financial institutions at even an interest rate of 6% per annum.

Now, Hyflux has approached a group of banks for a $800 million bridge loan. 



Bridge loans are usually short term in nature (i.e. not more than a year) and are usually perceived as lower risk and would attract a lower interest rate.






There is no question that Hyflux is a growth company and one with huge capital expenditure requirements. 

It could turn out very nicely for shareholders if its business chugs along as planned. 

Good luck to all shareholders.






-->

Hyflux said to approach banks for $800m bridge loan Wednesday, 01 June 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Related post: 
Hyflux director divested all his shares!

First REIT: MSCI Singapore Index.

The reason for First REIT's strong performance in recent sessions is now apparent:

First Real Estate Investment Trust says it has been included in the MSCI Singapore Index with effect from 1 June 2011.

MSCI is a leading provider of investment decision support tools worldwide, including indices, portfolio risk and performance analytics and corporate governance services.

The MSCI indices are among the most widely tracked global equity benchmarks covering companies with good operational results and growth prospects. By being a constituent stock on the MSCI Singapore Index, First REIT can be better tracked by a wider group of institutional investors and funds on a global platform.

First REIT's unit price failed to close higher today. Could it be a case of "sell on news"? A long legged doji formed today and this is ominous as it suggests indecision in an uptrend. A pull back could find immediate support at 77c, a previously many times tested resistance.

Immediate resistance at 80c was tested today with only 1 trade of 3 lots done. I am still in the queue to sell some at 80c and 80.5c. A pull back to the longer term support would see me buying more.

Related post:
First REIT: Partial divestment at 77c and 79c.

First REIT makes it to MSCI Singapore index
Wednesday, 01 June 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Sabana REIT: Global Small-Cap Indices.

It seems that Sabana REIT will no longer be unloved and the following development probably explains the after market large volume buy up at 94c per unit in the last session:

Sabana Real Estate Investment Management Pte. Ltd., the Manager of Sabana Shari’ah Compliant Industrial Real Estate Investment Trust (“Sabana REIT”), announces that Sabana REIT has been included in the Morgan Stanley Capital International “(MSCI”) Global Small-Cap Indices.

Commenting on Sabana REIT’s inclusion in the MSCI Global Small-Cap Indices, Mr Kevin Xayaraj, Chief Executive Officer and Executive Director of the Manager, said, “The MSCI Indices are widely tracked global equity benchmarks covering companies with good operational results and potential. The inclusion puts Sabana REIT onto the ‘radar screens’ of a much wider group of institutional investors and funds seeking value and performance from markets round the world. We are greatly encouraged to have achieved this major milestone and feel very honored for Sabana REIT to be selected as one of the constituent stocks, considering that it has been listed for only six months.”

Read annoucement here.

With greater exposure to international investors, this could only be good thing for the REIT. Sabana REIT is my second largest investment, together with First REIT, when I last looked. I am looking forward to possibly stronger unit prices in time to come.

Related post:
Sabana REIT: Resistance at 93c demolished.

Saizen REIT: YK Shintoku's CMBS repaid.

The Board of Directors of Japan Residential Assets Manager Limited, the manager (the “Manager”) of Saizen Real Estate Investment Trust ("Saizen REIT"), is pleased to announce that the loan of YK Shintoku had been fully repaid on 31 May 2011 (the “Repayment”).

Following the completion of the Repayment and the cancellation of the mortgage over YK Shintoku’s property portfolio, YK Shintoku’s portfolio of 27 properties which is valued at approximately JPY 4.3 billion (S$65.6 million) will become unencumbered. Together with the property portfolios of YK Keizan, YK Shingen and GK Chosei, the total value of Saizen REIT’s unencumbered properties will amount to approximately JPY 14.9 billion (S$227.5 million).

After the Repayment, Saizen REIT’s borrowings comprise five loans amounting to approximately JPY 9.0 billion (S$137.4 million), with the nearest loan maturity due in June 2013. Saizen REIT’s gearing after the Repayment is approximately 24%.  

Verify announcement here.

This is, of course, what I have been waiting for since I started investing in this REIT in late 2009. It is really a pity that the triple disasters hit Japan when it did. Otherwise, I have no doubt that Saizen REIT's unit price would be much higher than it is now.

As it is now, technically, further upside could be capped at 15.5c while downside could be limited at 14.5c. Could the repayment of YK Shintoku's CMBS provide a strong enough catalyst for the REIT's unit price to breakout on the upside?

Related post:
Saizen REIT: Sanity prevails with more good news.

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