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My diet and dietary supplements.

I have blogged about some low cost meals which I could get outside as well as some which I cook at home. Some readers wonder if I eat like that all the time and some wonder if I could suffer from nutritional problems. I guess readers would only know as much as I reveal in my blog and, often, the picture is incomplete.

The answer is "no". I do not eat like that all the time. I enjoy a good dinner once or, sometimes, twice a week. I like stir fried venison with spring onions and ginger as well as stir fried small kailan (no garlic please). Complete with a bowl of steamed Thai fragrant rice would make me really happy. An occasional bowl of soup is good too.

I also make sure I have an orange or apple or both in the evenings. Sometimes, I would buy strawberries, the long stem type if they are available on special offers. What about junk food? I have a weakness for chocolates, potato chips, perserved mangos and ice cream. See a more complete picture now? Yes, I am likely to have all the illnesses of a typical modern civilised man.

Now, for many years, I have also been taking dietary supplements. Just in case I am not taking in a balanced diet, I take a good multivitamin daily. I also take Omega 3 which I understand is good for the heart but I take it more to balance up with the Omega 6 that I am sure is abundant in my diet. I also take glucosamine for my bad knee as well as a higher dose of Vitamin C to deal with stress.

My diet is not perfect, for sure, but I think it's OK. What I would need to do more of is physical exercise. I get a lot of mental exercise but not enough physical exercise. I know this is bad and I really should do something about it. OK, time to double highlight this in my "to do" list! Confirm and double confirm!

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CapitaMalls Asia and Capitaland: Daily versus Weekly.

The possibility of a positive divergence panning out for CapitaMalls Asia still exists. With a lower low in its share price, the MACD has stayed at a higher low. However, it seems to be having some difficulty making a positive crossover with the signal line.

I decided to look at the weekly chart and found that the MACD has just gone lower than the previous low. A lower low on the MACD in the weekly chart is a foregone conclusion. It scuttles the chances of a reversal without a positive divergence.

What am I concluding from this? In the short term, there could be support and possibly a rebound but in the longer term, continuing weakness would not surprise me. Any rebound off lows to retest resistance would be good opportunities to reduce exposure.

I recognise the technical signs and would act accordingly. Bearing in mind all the time that TA is about probabilities, I never fully divest. A partial divestment reduces exposure and would allow me to ride any unforeseen reversal to the upside as well.

What about Capitaland? I am going to be lazy here. See the daily and weekly charts below:

Do you see the similarities? No prizes for guessing what am I planning to do with my investment in Capitaland. Good luck to fellow shareholders.

Related post:
An elaboration on my methods.

An elaboration on my methods.

Someone asked me why have I given up on NOL. Naturally, he asked this after reading my blog post on NOL last night which was a rather short blog post and quite unlike my usual style. Well, the facts were simple and brevity was appropriate.

The reason for buying more shares in NOL is no longer valid, from a technical perspective. I buy in a downtrend only when I see the building up of a positive divergence. Once that picture is negated, I stop buying. I do not throw good money after the bad.

Do not throw good money after the bad? This sounds familiar. Yes, it is conventional wisdom and I have said this at other times in my blog too. Such wisdom is also applicable to someone who is investing based purely on fundamentals. For example, my decision not to add to my remaining long position in Healthway Medical was premised on its worsening fundamentals.

So, what am I going to do with my shares in NOL now? Unlike conventional cut loss strategy which would see a certain percentage of loss given as a trigger, I prefer to cut loss on technical rebounds. This would mean at or close to resistance. This would reduce the realised loss of the trade and the likelihood of whipsaws as well.

What if a rebound did not happen? Well, remember that downtrends are rivers of hope. They are rarely one straight line downwards. However, TA is about probability and never certainty. So, herein lies the flaw in my methods. If a rebound did not happen, I could end up with more shares in my frozen portfolio. Brrr...

If you like my methods, by all means, use them. I share them freely. If you are unsure, explore the different methods out there and take your time to decide on what you are comfortable with that works. Good luck.

Related post:
NOL: Positive divergence negated.

NOL: Positive divergence negated.

NOL's positive divergence has been negated. The ADX suggests a strengthening downtrend.

After strong moves downwards, a rebound is possible and if it were to test resistance, it would be a good opportunity to reduce exposure.

Neptune Orient said to plan $200m sale of 10-year bonds
Wednesday, 08 June 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

NOL completes US$1.1b loan agreements
Thursday, 02 June 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Golden Agriculture: Critical support at 67.5c.

Regular readers might remember that I was queueing to buy some shares of Golden Agriculture at 67.5c, having divested most of my long position not too long ago. The reason was because 67.5c was support in an uptrend which started on 6 May 2011.

Did I say "was"? Yes, I did. The uptrend which started on 6 May 2011 has been broken as price closed below the trendline support in the last two sessions.

As the ADX suggests a lack of trend, I look to the Stochastics for clues and it has been in decline. Indeed, it could decline further as volume reduced with price unable to close higher.  Price could continue to weaken. It might look like a low volume pull back but it is not pulling back to support but a break in support.

It would be better to err on the side of caution and seek guidance from the gentler uptrend which started on 23 Feb 2011. Using Fibo lines to complement this, we see supports at 66c (138.2% Fibo) and 65.5 (150%) if 67.5c should give way.

We could see the Stochastics dipping into oversold territory just like it did earlier this year in February and late April. It would be more timely to add or initiate long positions then.

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust: 86c.

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HPH) saw its unit price sinking lower today to close at 86c per unit. This is almost 15% lower than its IPO price of US$1.01 per unit not too long ago.

Just like what I did with Sabana REIT when it was newly listed, I used Fibo lines to estimate where are the critical supports for HPH and 86c is where we find the 161.8% Fibo line.

If 86c breaks, we could see price hitting 81c as the next strong support using the high of US$1.02 as 0%.

At 81c, it could be too tempting to refuse even though it is denominated in US$.

Related post:
Hutchison Port Holdings Trust: A weak debut.

Perennial China Retail Trust: Weak debut?

On 19 May, I did a relatively lengthy blog post on why I found Perennial China Retail Trust (PCRT) unattractive as an investment.

At that time, they were going to price it between 70c to 76c per unit. Ultimately, the trust was offered at 70c per unit, the lowest price in the range, and it was only 1.6x subscribed. The suggestion that the market is not enthusiastic about the IPO is not far off the mark.

Today, it closed at 61c or 12.86% lower than its IPO price of 70c. A weak debut? That would be an understatement.

Would I be interested in PCRT if its price were to weaken further? Yes, I would be interested if its distribution yield for 2011 were to be much higher than the 5.3% at its IPO price of 70c.

At today's closing price of 61c, its distribution yield has improved to 6.08% for the year 2011. However, it is still not attractive enough for me to invest for income. In my last blog post on this, I compared the distribution yield to CapitaRetail China Trust which was offering a distribution yield of 6.83%.

So, unless PCRT trades at a much higher distribution yield and this is really to compensate for the rather risky investment that it is, I would not be tempted. At 54c per unit, PCRT would trade at a distribution yield of 6.87% and, perhaps, I would be interested then.

Read article here.

Related post:
Perennial China Retail Trust.

FSL Trust: Private placement.

On 2 June, I blogged about FSL Trust's acquisition of a vessel and I was wondering if it would be a positive catalyst for its unit price since distributable income would likely increase.  Read blog post here.

Fast on the heals of that acquisition is another one. This time, "the acquisition will be fully funded by the drawdown of US$23 million from the trust's existing revolving credit facility and US$23 million in cash - with around US$15 million to come from a private placement of up to 57 million new FSL Trust units." Read full article here.

So, although distributable income would likely increase, distribution per unit might not increase much since there is a private placement involved. The new units would be issued at a discounted price of 35c/unit and represent 8.6% of the total number of units in issue after the placement exercise is concluded.

Read announcement here.

Mid-life crisis? Investing for income continues.

I am going through some big changes in my life. I am monetising my investments in real estate and moving back to stay with my parents. With work giving me some rather bad headaches recently, I am thinking of what I should be doing next. What is the next step in my life?

Should I continue with the status quo? I could. I would have to suffer the rather constant bad headaches at work as they are caused mostly by problems which are beyond my control.

Should I just quit and do something else? Time for a change? Indeed, time for a long break? Unfortunately, often, things have a way of turning out differently from how we would like them to.

Anyway, whatever I plan to do or not to do, I continue to invest for income and if I should be unemployed one day whether by choice or not, I have no fear even if I should be unable to find alternative employment.

Today, I  bought more units of Sabana REIT at 92.5c per unit. Readers might remember that I said I would like to lighten my position in AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and to increase the weight of Sabana REIT in my portfolio. The reasons were discussed in this blog post here.

Well, unit price of AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT has been testing 22c resistance on low volume and one wonders if it could be broken. Price is flirting with the declining 200dMA. The ADX shows the +DI having the advantage and that the trend is positive and strengthening. The MACD, on the other hand, is finding it hard to form a higher high.

If volume does not increase significantly to take out resistance presented at 22c, I would not be surprised if price should retreat to test 21c for support. This is where we find the rising 50dMA and the uptrend support. I would not panic as the uptrend would still be intact. The price action of the last two weeks has broken out of the downtrend which started on 17 Sep 2010.

As for Sabana REIT, technically, it is trapped between 93c and 92c. 93c is where we find the flat 50dMA and 92c is where we find the flat 20dMA. The ADX suggests that there is no trend. So, I look at the Stochastics for clues.

Drawing a trendline connecting the lows, we get a support line which suggests that the Stochastics could test 50% in future which suggests a weakness in price is possible. Immediate support is at 92c. 91.5c? Not very likely if we see where the trendline support is at. Currently, it coincides nicely with the 20dMA at 92c.

Although I have not managed to do a partial divestment of my investment in AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, I decided to go ahead and buy more units in Sabana REIT at 92.5c a piece today. The fundamental reasons to increase my investment in Sabana REIT remain valid and a partial divestment of my investment in AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT is not a necessary condition for this to take place.

Due to the changes in my life and my current mental state, during the next few weeks, there could be a day or two or even a few days in a row when I might not be updating my blog. I will try to update it as frequently as possible, of course. Blogging remains an engaging hobby for me.

Golden Agriculture: Further growth.

Feeling somewhat groggy from watching two movies back to back but I have some thoughts about Golden Agriculture which I would like to pen. I like Golden Agriculture's business and I like its numbers. I also like its technicals.

I am still in the queue at 67.5c to add to my long position. The neckline of a potential head and shoulders pattern is at 65.5c thereabouts. I would like to accumulate on weakness.

The ADX suggests a lack of trend and the Stochastics in such an instance suggests that price could experience more weakness. Notice how volume seems to be reducing as well in the last few sessions.

Golden Agri targets production growth, more land: Update
Tuesday, 07 June 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore