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Capitaland: More downside?

Friday, June 17, 2011

My purchase of more shares in Capitaland yesterday at $2.81 per share, unfortunately, did not turn out well. Today, its share price closed at $2.75, the day's low. There are some very determined shortists. The bears have won for now. Well, this is the risk one has to accept if one were to go long in a downtrend when there are no clear reversal signals. Too bad for me.

I am going to employ Fibo lines which have worked so well for me on other occasions to help determine where would we find the next support. Taking the high of $4.23 as 0% and $3.08, a natural support as 100%, we see a clearer picture.


$2.81 is where we find the 123.6% Fibo line, not a golden ratio and, as it turned out, it was a weak support which held up for a while in the morning. The next support is at $2.64. This is provided by the 138.2% Fibo line, a golden ratio and likely to be stronger. In the absence of a rebound, I would keep an eye on this price if it should be tested.

Fundamentally, Capitaland is now trading at a 21.4% discount to its NAV of $3.50 per share. I still get a feeling that it is very oversold and that a technical rebound is overdue. Of course, Mr. Market does not care two hoots what I feel.

For investors still keen on property stocks, the key is to be extra selective. Daiwa Securities recommends CapitaLand, which it notes has underperformed the local market “significantly” over the last 12 months. “We believe the market has sold down CapitaLand shares to a level where nearly all of the future policy risk (in China and Singapore) has been priced in.”

Daiwa adds what while home prices in Singapore and China may stagnate or even decline, CapitaLand’s combined residential property exposure in the two countries accounts for less than 20% of its overall assets. Daiwa has an “outperform” rating and $3.50 price target on CapitaLand. The stock closed at $2.75 on June 17.

(Source: The EDGE Weekend Comment Jun 17)

Related post:
Capitaland: Average buy price of $2.81.

Golden Agriculture: Contra at 68.5c.

Golden Agriculture saw 90,289 lots changed hands today with 15,147 lots done at 68.5c after market closed.



In my last blog post on Golden Agriculture, I identified 68.5c as the immediate resistance as provided by a confluence of the 20d, 50d and 100d MAs. So, I put in a sell order last night for those units which I bought at 66c yesterday. My sell order was filled, locking in a gross gain of 2.5c or 3.78% in one day. In uncertain times, I suppose it makes sense to lock in gains quickly and not tempt Fate, especially over the weekend.

If 68.5c could be overcome convincingly next week, the next significant resistance is at 70c. I might sell more of my shares in Golden Agriculture then.

Related post:
Golden Agriculture: Bought at 66c.

Capitaland: Average buy price of $2.81.

Thursday, June 16, 2011

Readers might remember that I said I was waiting for a chance to reduce exposure to this counter. It means waiting for a rebound to reduce at resistance. I do not like selling as prices are on their way down. Of course, as I have mentioned before, this is also a flaw in my methods. If there should be no rebound, then, it is more stocks for the freezer. However, if we believe that downtrends are rivers of hope, then, rebounds are just a matter of time.

With Capitaland, price has continued to drift lower for a month or so now. No rebound. Some traders have thrown in the towel and called it quits, selling away their shares. This, to me, shows fatigue amongst long holders and, perhaps, many, if not most, of the would be sellers have sold. The counter's share price would have a better chance of going higher then.


Today, there was a fierce tussle between bulls and bears. Very high volume was chalked up as price closed lower at $2.82, after touching a low of $2.79, forming a black hammer in the process. We might not have seen the bottom yet but we could be seeing the corner of a floor.

There are no signs of a reversal yet and buying into Capitaland at $2.81 is based on a believe that the counter is oversold and that a technical rebound is overdue. Target to the upside is $3.00. Wish me luck.

Related post:
Capitaland: Daily versus Weekly.

Golden Agriculture: Bought at 66c.

Been another long day and I just settled down at 11pm or so. Will be another couple of weeks before I settle into a new routine. Until then, I will be blogging sporadically.

Today, my buy order for some shares in Golden Agriculture at 66c was filled. I also have another buy order at 65.5c which was not filled.


65.5c is at support provided by the trendline which started on 23 Feb. So, buying some at 66c, 1 bid above support seems like a pretty safe move. This is seemingly the case when volume has been reducing as price drifted lower. A low volume pull back suggests a lack of conviction on the part of sellers.

Looking at the ADX, we see a lack of trend, strong or weak. Therefore, look to the Stochastics for clues. It has declined into oversold territory. A rebound is probable. Immediate target is at the confluence of the 20d, 50d and 100d MAs at 68.5c. Overcoming this would see a higher target of 70c.

If price were to break support at 65.5c and close lower in the next session, we could see a retest of the 61c low. Good luck to fellow shareholders.

Related post:
Golden Agriculture: Critical support at 67.5c.

Cheap shopping and makan in Johor Bahru?

Wednesday, June 15, 2011

I read the terrible experience of the two Singaporean ladies who suffered at the hands of the Malaysian Immigration and Customs with much feeling. 

I have stopped going to JB for shopping and makan (Malay for "eating") for years now. The numerous reports of robbery, murder, burglary, car thefts etc raised a red flag. How these criminals seem to target Singaporeans really did it for me. 



However, past reports of how Singaporeans suffered at the hands of the Malaysian Immigration and Polis (that's how it is spelt in Malaysia, if I remember correctly) really angered me. 

Is it not enough that we have to worry about criminals? Do we have to worry about the law enforcers as well? Ahem, in Malaysia, yes!

My family used to go to JB regularly many years ago for recreation. I remember once when we were about to leave that my mom discovered her passport was not stamped with an exit stamp the last time we visited. It created a bit of an inconvenience that time when we were leaving the country. 

However, since she had an entry stamp, she was not fined or jailed for illegal entry and she could not be charged for overstaying as well since she just received another entry stamp for our then current trip. I remember she still had to pay a "fine" while we waited for her and my dad in the car.

From then on, we made it a point to check our passports carefully each time we went through Malaysian customs. Good thing we did too because on another trip later on, my dad's passport was not stamped upon entry. We stopped the car by the roadside and my dad walked back to the booth to get his entry stamp. It was a long walk and we waited for him in the car for more than 30 minutes. Thank goodness, no complications because his immigration "white card" (Malaysian immigration form) was all in order.

It has been many years since I was last in JB. I do not see why I should go to JB for shopping and makan just to save some $10 or so per trip. Actually, the imported goods are cheaper in Singapore. 

Unless we have a penchant for buying large quantities of Buatan Malaysia (Made in Malaysia) products, we can't save much money. The potential risks and the angst are just not worth the small savings.

Anyway, I get the feeling that Singaporeans are not welcomed in JB as they look at us as the reason for higher cost of living there. Why should we be so thick skinned to go to a place which does not welcome us? 

Give JB a miss, I say.

Want a good and inexpensive meal? Go to one of our famed hawker centres! I have blogged about quite a few too. 

Happy and safe makan! Burp!

Read articles here:
S’pore duo to file complaint against M’sia Immigration




(Added in November 2016)

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Sunday, June 12, 2011


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My diet and dietary supplements.

I have blogged about some low cost meals which I could get outside as well as some which I cook at home. Some readers wonder if I eat like that all the time and some wonder if I could suffer from nutritional problems. I guess readers would only know as much as I reveal in my blog and, often, the picture is incomplete.


The answer is "no". I do not eat like that all the time. I enjoy a good dinner once or, sometimes, twice a week. I like stir fried venison with spring onions and ginger as well as stir fried small kailan (no garlic please). Complete with a bowl of steamed Thai fragrant rice would make me really happy. An occasional bowl of soup is good too.

I also make sure I have an orange or apple or both in the evenings. Sometimes, I would buy strawberries, the long stem type if they are available on special offers. What about junk food? I have a weakness for chocolates, potato chips, perserved mangos and ice cream. See a more complete picture now? Yes, I am likely to have all the illnesses of a typical modern civilised man.


Now, for many years, I have also been taking dietary supplements. Just in case I am not taking in a balanced diet, I take a good multivitamin daily. I also take Omega 3 which I understand is good for the heart but I take it more to balance up with the Omega 6 that I am sure is abundant in my diet. I also take glucosamine for my bad knee as well as a higher dose of Vitamin C to deal with stress.

My diet is not perfect, for sure, but I think it's OK. What I would need to do more of is physical exercise. I get a lot of mental exercise but not enough physical exercise. I know this is bad and I really should do something about it. OK, time to double highlight this in my "to do" list! Confirm and double confirm!

Ester-C Plus 500 mg Vitamin C Vegetable Capsules (Ester-C Ascorbate Complex)100 V Caps @ US$11.99

Glucosamine & MSM120 Vcaps @ US$ 9.81


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