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2011 full year passive income from S-REITs.

Saturday, December 10, 2011

On 7 Dec, income distribution from AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT was received. It was also the final income distribution to be received from my portfolio of S-REITs this year.

Total income distribution received in 4Q 2011:
S$ 29,040.65.

Add this to S$ 75,785.49 received in the first three quarters of 2011, the grand total for the year 2011 is S$ 104,826.14.



I received more income this quarter because I made use of the weakness in the stock market to accumulate more units in selected S-REITs.

I have imperfect knowledge definitely and I can only try to do the best with what I know. I don't spend time asking questions which I cannot reasonably find answers for.

As many may already know, it was after much deliberation that I decided to share in dollar terms the passive income I am receiving from my investments in S-REITs. From the flood of comments I received in my last blog post on the subject, I guess readers do appreciate this candid sharing.

However, I doubt such a blog post serves any other purpose than to show what is achievable if we put our minds to it. The message is really simple and it is meant to inspire.

So, don't be surprised if I do not do another blog post like this in 2012 since I do not believe it would be more useful than this or its predecessors.



Once again, if you need a little encouragement, remember, if AK71 can do it, so can you! Bookmark this page if you think it helps. Add oil!

Related post:
$120k annual passive income from S-REITs next?



Citibank Make A Wish: Win $1,000 weekly!

Friday, December 9, 2011

$1,000 to be won weekly!


6 winners will win $1,000 worth of shopping, driving or dining vouchers each in the next few weeks. Simply make your wish and share the reason for your wish, get as many friends to vote for you as possible, and you could be one of the lucky six!

So quickly, make your wish on the Citibank SG Facebook page by 21 Dec 2011 and tell friends to vote for you!

Find out more here:
http://sg.churpchurp.com/AK71SG/share/citibank

Capitaland: Bought at $2.35.

Property counters continue to be sold down today. Mr. Market is really worried about the aggressive cooling measures announced by the government, it seems.

What do we do when there is lots of fear and prices are battered down? Ask ourselves if there could be some good stocks we might be able to buy on the cheap. I wondered especially if all property counters are going to be affected to the same degree?

Companies which develop luxury residential real estate like SC Global and Ho Bee are likely to be more affected by the new cooling measures as a bigger proportion of buyers of the properties they develop are foreigners. The impression I have is that they are also less diversified and have a bigger chunk of their business in Singapore luxury residential properties.

Fundamentally, in comparison, the more diversified Capitaland is probably less affected and, in fact, with plans to spin off more properties in China into two new REITs, it could see positive interest from the investment community in an otherwise down market. Capitaland is likely to weather the storm pretty well.

Technically, $2.35 looked like it could be a strong support, having been breached only once since April 2009. So, I put in an overnight buy order at $2.35 which was filled this morning.



Well, today marks the second time this support has been breached since April 2009. The counter's price managed to close at $2.35 but not after touching a low of $2.31. Volume, although still relatively high, reduced today as a black spinning top was formed. This is a possible reversal signal but in case of further weakness, next support is at $2.28.

Related post:
Selling a private property just got harder.

Buying a private property as an owner-occupier? Think like an investor!

This blog post is in response to a comment by a reader, Jaime. See it here.



Hi Jaime,

How to buy a private property for self stay? I am most probably considered an amateur when it comes to buying private properties but I am happy to share my thoughts with you.

Just keep visiting showflats if you want to buy new. Or keep viewing apartments (look through the classifieds in the papers or search sites like Property Guru) if you do not mind buying from the resale market.

So, when you finally find a property you like and within your budget, do you just buy? That is a million dollar question, isn't it?

Even as a potential owner occupier, to answer this question, we have to think like an investor. This is the only way we do not end up overpaying for that dream home. We can pay but do we want to overpay? Remember, it is never about affordability, it is always about value.

A property's value is determined by the rent it is able to fetch if it were rented out. The higher the rent, the higher the property's value. Putting it simply, we will always value highly anything that is able to benefit us more, right?

Annualise the potential asking rent and calculate the yield based on the selling price of the property. This gives you a very rough idea if a property is worth buying.

To get a more accurate picture, ask how much is the monthly payment to the MCST, property tax and find out how much would insurance cost. Deduct all these from the annualised rent. What is left is net property income (NPI) or income after all maintenance costs have been accounted for. Calculate the NPI yield based on the selling price of the property.


If a housing loan is taken to finance the purchase, interest rates must be given due consideration. In the current low interest rate environment where housing loans could attract interest rates of 1% or lower, a NPI yield of just 3 to 4% is probably enough to make a property investment worthwhile.

If interest rates should bump up by a percentage point or two, investors would demand higher NPI yields as well. This could be achieved either through higher rents or lower selling prices. In a weak economy, prices across the board would likely take a hit since higher rents are less likely to come by. Lower rents and prices are even more likely when coupled with oversupply.

Some might ask why I say 3 to 4% NPI yield is enough to make a property investment worthwhile if interest rate is low? Isn't inflation in Singapore in excess of 5% now? Shouldn't we be invested in assets that could outperform inflation rate?

Well, theoretically, real estate should see its value at least keeping pace with inflation. So, investing in real estate should give us returns over and above inflation rate. Remember, however, that this is in theory. In reality, this is an imperfect world and there will be times when things go out of sync due to decisions made with imperfect knowledge; and these are times when savvy investors capitalise on the imperfections either as a buyer or a seller.

There will be times when things could go horribly wrong, when things go out of sync for a prolonged period. When something is stretched to an extreme, it does not just return to the mean. It is likely to overshoot to the other extreme as it tries to find equilibrium again. Sounds scientific, does it not?

You might be thinking of buying a home for self stay but think like an investor and look for value. You might one day monetise your home. Who knows?

Oh, yes, it could be lots of legwork but have fun in your search in the next few years. It is going to be a buyers' market. So, sharpen your bargaining skills. ;)


You might also be interested in these blog posts:

1. Making your first million dollars in real estate investment.

2. New or resale property?

Selling a private property just got harder.

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

The Singapore government has "imposed an Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty (ABSD) for private property of between 3 per cent and 10 per cent for Singaporeans, Permanent Residents and foreigners to moderate investment demand for private residential property and promote a more stable and sustainable market."  Read article here.

This development is likely to hasten the weakening of private residential real estate prices which is something I expect to become really evident in 2014 or 2015.  Weakness in the resale market would probably manifest itself markedly much earlier now.

Anecdotal evidence already shows that it is harder to find buyers in recent weeks. The ABSD which takes effect from tomorrow will likely cause weaker sellers to lower their asking prices.

In real estate investment just like in any investment, price is always a function of who is more enthusiastic, the seller or the buyer. Such enthusiam or the lack of it is the function of many contributory factors. How is the enthusiasm competition stacking up?


If we search Property Guru for listings of recently completed condominium projects, we would be amazed by how many are trying to sell their units. So, let us see The Trevista in Toa Payoh which recently got its TOP.

The Trevista has 664 listings under "units for sale" right now! Granted that many listings are probably repeated, let us say each unit has been advertised by 5 different property agents, it would still mean that 130 units or so are up for sale. There is no question that many bought private real estate as an investment in the last year or two.

Now, the more realistic investors would probably settle for lower selling prices. In the end, those who are unwilling to sell at lower prices must have holding power. What affects holding power? Rental and interest rates. Rental should be as high as possible and interest rates should be as low as possible. Of course, how much financial muscle one has to begin with is an important consideration too for obvious reasons.

The rental market has been softening, from what I hear. So, rents, in time to come, could provide diminishing comfort. With more residential real estate being completed over the next few years, lower rents are a realistic expectation.

Interest rate although widely expected to remain low until 2013 is a wild card from then on. With expectations of oversupply from 2014 onwards, the expiration of low interest rate at the same time would be a double whammy.

Good luck to all who are still heavily invested in private residential real estate in Singapore.


Latest update (CNA, 8 Dec 2011):
CEO of PropNex Realty Mr Mohamed Ismail said he expects a price correction of approximately 15 to 20 per cent in the central core region and a correction of 10 to 15 per cent in the mass market segment in the next six months.  Read article: click here.

Related posts:
1. Money continues to flow into Singapore.
2. Should we be staying invested or in cash?

NOL: Is the worst over?

Despite negative sentiments towards shipping companies, NOL's chart is showing signs of bottoming. If it has not bottomed, it has certainly found a floor and a rather strong one at that.



The long white candle formed today was on the back of relatively high volume. Fibo lines show that $1.175 is a rather strong resistance and if we could overcome this convincingly, next resistance levels are at $1.19 and $1.205.



The MACD has formed a higher low and has once again ventured into positive territory. Momentum has once again turned positive, if only barely so. The MFI is set to form a higher high which suggests a return of demand. Being above the 50% line, we could see some support afforded by this line in case of a retracement in price.

For a longer term picture, look to the weekly chart for clues. The MACD has been rising since the middle of August but it is still in negative territory. The MFI is currently supported by the 50% line. It also looks like we could be seeing the formation of a double bottom.


More importantly, for the first time in a long time, price is above the 20wMA. The week, however, has not ended. So, the situation is still fluid.

A pattern is not formed until it has formed, of course. However, the worst could be over for NOL.

Tea with AK71: Macarons from ZUJI.

Today, I got a treat from ZUJI. They sent me a box of six macarons. What are macarons? I know what is macaroni. ;-p

Very nicely boxed and ribboned.

 
Wikipedia says it is "a sweet confectionery made with egg whites, icing sugar, granulated sugar, almond powder and food coloring. The macaron is commonly filled with buttercream or jam filling sandwiched between two cookies."

Letter says to eat within 3 days but the expiry date on the box says 8 Dec 2011.

According to a colleague, these macarons are quite pricey and they are being sold in atas places like MBS. Price? $3+ each! Oh, my goodness! I could have a very good lunch for $3! Sorry for the exclamations but I am not well informed when it comes to atas food and atas malls.

If I was not told, I would have thought the box of macarons is at most $5 in price. So, this box of 6 macarons is worth more than $18!

I was told that Canele is definitely branded.

Macarons melted and cracked during delivery but the aroma was heavenly. Yummy too.

Oh well, just food to me. It is very nice of ZUJI to send me something sweet for booking hotel rooms and sometimes air tickets through them. I do have a sweet tooth. :)

Planning a trip? Check if ZUJI has a good deal for you! Click here.

LMIR: Too cheap to sell.

Some who managed to get a meaningful number of excess rights might be thinking of selling these rights for a quick gain. After all, selling at 36.5c today would mean a capital gain of 5.5c or 17.7%. This is more than 18 months' worth of income distribution from the REIT if we were to use my estimate of 3.26c in annual DPU, post rights and acquisitions.


Personally, I wouldn't sell my rights units as I am investing for income. I will be getting 10.5% distribution yield on cost. That is pretty good, especially when we consider the fact that its gearing level is below 10%.

However, if I should consider selling, at what price would I sell? Similar to First REIT, I feel that an 8% distribution yield should be fair. 8% distribution yield is still fairly high but looking at First REIT's unit price, it would seem that Mr. Market is not willing to accept a yield lower than 8% for a REIT with an Indonesian focus.


Some might argue that LMIR traded in excess of 60c a unit not too long ago. Even at just 60c, it would mean it had a distribution yield of 7% (based on the estimated annual DPU of 4.2c back then), a full percentage point lower than 8%. A persuasive argument.

So, when would we see fair value for LMIR? When its units are trading with a distribution yield of between 7 to 8% would be my guess. Assuming that its annual DPU does not change from my current estimate, that would mean a unit price of 41c to 46.5c. It is currently still too cheap to sell.

Risks, risks and risks.

This blog post is in response to a comment by a reader, Temperament: click here.



Hi Temperament,

With my limited knowledge of trading, I know that true blue traders must be emotionless. They cannot fall in love with anything. They should not hate anything either. They do what the charts tell them to do, when to long, when to short, when to take profit and when to cut loss. So, I don't think they truly hedge. Hedging to traders could mean having a looser cut loss so as not to be whipsawed, perhaps.

As for risk management, I am a poor example. By conventional wisdom, we should not have more than 10% (some would say 5%) of our money in any one counter. For me, I allow up to 40% of my money in a single counter sometimes.

For sure, we can and should reduce risks in investments but it is impossible to eliminate risks.

It is very interesting how some seasoned investors would tell me that what I do is very risky, having 40% of my money in a single counter but if they only invest in Singapore equities, they are also exposed to a single country risk and a single asset risk to boot. Are they truly diversifying and reducing risk by having only 5% of their money in any one counter?

Apparently, we have to diversify across asset classes and go global to truly manage risk. How many of us mass market retail investors can do that?

So, there are risks on different levels. What about unit trusts? There would be advocates of unit trusts which are supposedly less risky. Perhaps this makes the lower returns justifiable? OK, I am being cheeky here.

Some would then argue that if we know Asia is where growth is and if we believe in Singapore, why bother with other markets? I shall leave that question open.

At the end of the day, how much risk are we able to stomach depends on the individual. We just have to be better at what we do. If we can thrive in a higher risk environment with higher rewards, that is not such a bad thing, is it?

LMIR: Excess rights.

Monday, December 5, 2011

It seems that LMIR's management has the same approach towards excess rights as First REIT's management.



Smaller unitholders would see more of their application filled compared to larger unitholders. I make this statement after exchanging notes with some friends and readers.

For me, excess rights alloted as a percentage of the units I was holding before the rights issue is about 17%. A friend's percentage is closer to 80% and he has much less invested in the REIT than I do.

Although a bit disappointed even though I kind of expected this since LMIR is controlled by Lippo just like First REIT is, I shan't complain since successfully getting excess rights is like getting free money. It's a bonus. :)

Girls, do up your hair!

Sunday, December 4, 2011

In my blog post titled "REITs and rights issues: A Singaporean tale", I let my hair down figuratively. Even if I had really wanted to let my hair down, it would have been a challenge since I always cut my hair very short. ;p

For Christmas, there will be Christmas parties to attend, I am sure. Even a reclusive person like me gets invitations. I guess I am not reclusive enough.

Anyway, many would make an effort to look good for such parties. Girls especially would wonder how to make their hair look good. See how a celebrity blogger like Xiaxue does it.

Follow this link: http://sg.churpchurp.com/AK71SG/share/liese

Girls buy new clothes, get nice shoes to wear, but often, they are at a loss as to how to wear their hair. (Hey, that is what they say. I wouldn't know.)

Check out Liese’s Xmas lookbook on their facebook page:
http://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.323820864311101.97856.121455291214327&type=3

CitySpring Infrastructure Trust: Worth another look?



In reply to a reader, Rookie, who asked if I would consider investing in CitySpring Infrastructure Trust now:

Hi Rookie,

CitySpring at 33.5c? With a promised annualised DPU of 3.28c, the expected distribution yield is 9.79%. This annualised DPU is, of course, lower than the 4.2c in the preceding year.

The balance sheet of CitySpring has strengthened after its latest rights issue in September which saw Temasek increasing its share of the Trust substantially (reflecting a lack of confidence in the Trust by investors) from 27.9% to 37.4%.

Borrowings: S$1,324.5m
Total assets: S$2,004.5m
Gearing: 66%.


If we take out the intangibles of S$ 420.8m from total assets, gearing goes to 83.6%.

Yield has improved and gearing has come down somewhat. However, I am concerned that there would be yet another rights issue to further "strengthen its balance sheet". When? I don't know.

Regular readers know that I only like rights issues when they are distribution yield accretive. If they are not, I need some convincing that they would be good for me in some way. Whether I would buy the argument is something else.

So, to ameliorate such a risk, distribution yield has to increase while gearing remains the same before I would consider buying in. After all, I am able to get the same distribution yield or higher from AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, Sabana REIT and even Cambridge Industrial Trust without the same level of gearing. This is purely from the perspective of yield and gearing, of course.

If people like CitySpring Infrastructure Trust's businesses or even its management for some reason and find its current yield and gearing acceptable, it is their call, of course.

See slides here: Presentation 1H FY12

Related post:
CitySpring Infrastructure Trust: Rights issue.

Tea with AK71: Taste of Hong Kong.

Firstly, this has nothing to do with my recent trip to Hong Kong. This happened in Singapore. :)

I was at Illuma and had a new dining experience. Well, it was a new experience to me.

Taste of Hong Kong. Business was good!

Instructions at every table.

Waffle with bonito flakes, luncheon meat and something saucy. I loved it!

Inexpensive comfort food in an air-conditioned environment with no service charge. Burp. I mustn't do this too often. Promise, I'll try.

For photos of my recent trip to Hong Kong, go to my travel blog: click here.


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