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LMIR: Partial divestment at 38c.

Wednesday, January 25, 2012



Anyone who made use of LMIR's rights issue to accumulate more units would be in the money now.

I see immediate resistance for LMIR's unit price at 38c and put in an overnight sell order for a partial divestment. It was filled today as unit price closed at 38.5c.



Fibo lines seem to suggest that in case of a retracement, we could see strong support at 34.5c. That is quite a bit to fall from here if it should be tested.

The strategy I have for LMIR is the same as the one for Sabana REIT and AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT. Hold a larger portion for regular income while trading a smaller portion for potential capital gains.

The decision to partially divest is fully based on technicals as, fundamentally, I think LMIR is still too cheap to sell.

Related post:
LMIR: Too cheap to sell.

Sabana REIT: Partial divestment at 91c.



In an earlier blog post, I mentioned that immediate resistance for Sabana REIT is to be found at 91c. If this were to be taken out, we could see gap filling at 91.5c.

My sell order at 91c was filled today. Technically, if unit price should weaken when the REIT goes XD, we could see a decline to retest support which seems to be on a rising trendline. This would be in the region of 87c. That is a 4c difference if it should materialise.



As I have a large investment in the REIT and not forgetting that my primary aim of being vested is for income, I decided on divesting only a small portion (approximately 10% of total investment in the REIT) at resistance for a trade.

If the unit price should retest support, I would buy again. If unit price should go higher, I would also benefit from my remaining investment. This way, I could benefit both from units vested and units divested.

Related post:
Sabana REIT: 4Q 2011 results.

Towards a modern day good life.

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

We have our own circumstances which make demands on our finances, time and energy. Often, we hear people saying that they do not have enough money, time or energy to do all the things they have to do or want to do. How do we work towards having the money, time and energy to have a modern day good life?



Finances:

How much something costs is quantifiable, of course. Although people might find themselves cash strapped at times or, for some, most of the time, I believe that any problem that can be solved with money is not insurmountable, within reason.

We can always think of ways in which to make more money. Get extra income from a second job, for example. We could also seek help in the form of a short term loan if it should be warranted. Of course, to ensure that the situation is rectified permanently, if at all possible, find the root of the problem and resolve it sensibly.

Working towards a secure financial future as early as practicable in life would definitely help. Anyone who does this stands a good chance of having financial woes being a relatively infrequent occurence over time.



Time:

Unlike money, we cannot make more time. Time is therefore more precious than money. So, since we cannot make more time, what do we do if we want more time? Buy time. Huh? Buy time?

Do I mean buying some life extending elixir? I might like to entertain myself with Chinese mythology from time to time but I am not delusional. Well, I hope not anyway.

When we say "buy" in our modern day context, it would involve money, would it not? "Buying" time is possible if we have enough passive income to free up time.  It would free us from our reliance on earned income. Then, theoretically, we could quit our jobs and we could have more free time if that is what we desire.

When we have more free time, we would be able to meet head on any situation which demands more time from us. Time becomes less of an issue.



Energy (emotional):

When problems hit, it would be rare not to be emotionally affected. This is probably the most demanding factor and would drain even the strongest of people. This is something not many talk about in financial planning.

Financial planning is not just about dollar and cents or freeing up time. As problems are usually emotionally stressful, financial planning helps to make stress arising from such problems more manageable.

How can we reduce the emotional stress in such instances? If we have our finances well in place and if we have freed up more time, we would probably be able to deal with the emotional upheavals more easily and such situations might then feel less stressful.

I know that some people including our government say that family support is important to deal with stressful situations. This is true but not everyone has supportive families. Even though I feel that I am relatively lucky in this context, I would like to be self-reliant and not be a burden to my family, if possible.



Energy (physical):

We would also need to be physically healthy as a weak body could succumb to illnesses more easily. Regular exercise, taking in the required nutrition and having sufficient sleep are all part and parcel of having a healthy body.

As long as we have control over our lives, we should make sure we live it well. In our modern day context, it is possible only if we are financially prepared, have time for things that matter and are emotionally and physically healthy.

For the majority of us, we probably have to work towards having a good life. Depending on each person's circumstances and decisions in life, it could be harder for some and easier for others. However, it is definitely not an impossibility. A good life waits for anyone who is willing to work towards it. Believe it.

Related posts:
1. A common piece of advice on saving.
2. At what age to start investing in the stock market?
3. A letter from a reader in his early 20s.
4. Tea with AK71: How rich is rich?
5. Passive income: A higher purpose.

Tea with AK71: 2012 Year of the Dragon.

Saturday, January 21, 2012

Lucky 4D number:
2301
HUAT AH!

Photo taken in a shrine on the island of Enoshima, Japan. See blog post: here.

What's your Chinese astrology sign? How will each sign do in the Year of the Dragon?


Part 1


Part 2


I like this song. It has a message. Always look on the bright side and be happy in 2012 Year of the Dragon!

Wishing all readers good health and plenty of wealth in 2012 Year of the Dragon!

Sabana REIT: 4Q 2011 results.

Friday, January 20, 2012



A DPU of 2.17c has been announced. This is a little lesser than my estimate of 2.2c. This is probably due to the fact that no rentals were collected for the property of 1 Tuas Avenue 4 in the months of November and December 2011. The manager is in advanced stage of negotiation with a party to rent the said property for a 10 year period. This, when completed, together with recent acquisitions should boost income and result in a higher DPU.

1, Tuas Avenue 4.

NAV per unit: $1.05.
Gearing: 34.1%.
Interest cover ratio: 7.4x
Average land lease expiry: 40.2 years.
(10.4% of the REIT's land leases will expire between 2032 and 2036 while 7.3% will expire between 2037 and 2041.)

Sabana REIT managed to secure lower cost of funding for its newer loans at between 3.4% to 3.9% compared to 4.8% previously. The savings will result in higher distributable income, everything else remaining equal.

The REIT will go XD on 30 Jan and income distribution is payable on 29 Feb.


Technically, I see resistance at 91c. We could see gap filling at 91.5c if resistance should be taken out. Stochastics has risen into overbought territory once more which simply suggests to me that there could be a better time to add to long positions. For anyone looking to reduce exposure to the REIT for any reason, this could be a good opportunity.

See presentation slides: here.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 3Q FY2012.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT delivered a solid set of results with DPU at 2.6c. This is a 4% increase over the previous quarter.

As I was expecting a DPU of 2.5c with a possibility of a small reduction, this is good news indeed. It will go XD on 3 Feb and is payable on 20 Mar.


Upon completion of sale of 31 Admiralty Road for $16.438m, the REIT's gearing would drop to 29.4%. The REIT had purchased this building for $13.4m. So, the REIT will recognise a gain and have gearing comfortably under 30% at the same time.

NAV per unit: $1.367
Interest cover ratio: 5.6x
Occupancy: 98.9%
Average land lease expiry: 41.9 years
(Only 10.9% of nett lettable area will see land lease expiry within the next 21 to 30 years).

The REIT has no debt due until October 2013.

Expectations for very slow growth in 2012 is unlikely to be too challenging as REITs are generally able to weather zero growth environments. The REIT also collects an average of 8.4 months in security deposits per property.

At the recent high of $1.00 per unit, its annualised distribution yield is 10.4%. This could increase in 2013, everything remaining equal.

I am confident of the REIT as a strong passive income generator and it remains a core component of my portfolio.

See presentation slides: here.

Related post:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Partial divestment.

FSL Trust: Reduced DPU to US0.10c.

Mr. Market is showing displeasure with FSL Trust's decision to reduce quarterly DPU from 0.95c to 0.1c. Its price has plunged more than 20% from the closing of 30c yesterday to 23c when I last looked.



Assuming an exchange rate of US$1 to S$1.30, the annualised distribution yield is about 2.2% per annum based on a unit price of 23c. Better than fixed deposit rates but as an investment, it is not very attractive.

However, I believe that this development together with the Trust's recent successful refinancing with a 6 year amortising loan are steps in the right direction. If the Trust survives the difficult times ahead, it could emerge stronger and ready to ride the next upswing in the cycle.

Read press release: here.

Cache Logistics Trust: 4Q and FY2011 results.

Thursday, January 19, 2012

Cache Logistics Trust announced a good set of results.



Its recent acquisitions pushed distributable income upwards by some 9.2% while DPU increased to 2.1c. Annualised, distribution yield is 8.48% with unit price at 99c.

Net gearing: 29.6%.
NAV per unit: 91c.
Interest cover ratio: 8.0x

The CEO, Daniel Cerf, said that although new supply in warehouse space could come on board in late 2012 and 2014, existing demand should take up the new supply as good quality warehouse space is still in short supply in Singapore. (Source: The Straits Times, 19 January 2012).

Last month, I accumulated units of Cache Logistics Trust on weakness at 95c a unit. Those units were divested today at 99c when my overnight sell order was filled. The reason for selling? Technically, I see resistance at 99.5c and, for more than a week, unit price has plateaued at 99c.



In a rangebound situation, I look to the Stochastics for clues and it has been overbought for many sessions. Together with the formation of a doji today on the back of very much higher volume, the risk of a downward movement in price is, therefore, higher. When would a decline happen? When the counter goes XD? Perhaps.

If price should break resistance and move higher, I would still benefit with my remaining investment in the Trust. Otherwise, it would just continue to generate passive income in my portfolio. I think this is a good position to be in.

See presentation slides: here.

Related post:
Cache Logistics Trust: 3Q 2011.

Capitaland: Partial divestment at $2.48.

Just two days ago, on 17 January, I said that I see resistance at $2.48. I got this from the weekly chart as that was resistance provided by the declining 20wMA and the 138.2% Fibo line.

So, I put in an overnight sell order at $2.48 and it was filled later in the session today.



In very bullish circumstances, we could see $2.50 and $2.53 taken out with ease. With the formation of a long white candle on the back of very high volume, this could indeed be the case. The MACD has just crossed into positive territory and this signals the return of positive buying momentum.

In such an instance, we could see $2.65 or even $2.75 tested. It would be a sight to behold. Remember, however, that TA is about probability. Nothing is for certain.

Relates post:
Capitaland: Resistance at $2.48.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Partial divestment.

Tomorrow will see the release of quarterly results for AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT. As if in anticipation of a good set of numbers, its unit price pushed higher today on higher volume, closing at $1.00.

Last month, I accumulated units of the REIT at 93.5c, 94c and 95c. Why did I buy? At those prices, the REIT was very undervalued. Indeed, I was waiting to accumulate at 92c too but the lowest it went to was 92.5c. I blogged about it: here.


Today, my overnight sell order at 99c was filled, locking in some gains. I believe the REIT is still undervalued and I sold not because of valuation concerns. Then, why did I sell?

I sold because I want to rebalance my portfolio. With the acquisitions I made last month, the REIT's weight in my portfolio has tipped somewhat. Also, technically, $1.00 seems to be the upper end of a trading range. So, divesting partially, closer to resistance, makes sense.



Notice how the Stochastics has stayed in overbought territory for quite a long time now. In a range bound situation, the risk of a downward movement in price is, therefore, higher. However, in very bullish circumstances, momentum oscillators could stay overbought for a long time. In case resistance at $1.00 is taken out, I expect resistance provided by the 200dMA at $1.02 to come into play.

My remaining investment in the REIT is still a substantial part of my core investment for passive income. This is unlikely to change.

Tea with AK71: Another loaf of bread.

I blogged about how a loaf of bread could last me for days before. I like raisin bread the most and would usually buy when there is a special deal. Gardenia's raisin bread had a special deal going for a while but ended a couple of weeks ago.

On Sunday, I bought a loaf of softmeal bread from Sunshine. Usual price: $2.30. Special offer: $1.95.



Today, I finished the last few slices and had the two bread ends for lunch with a generous spread of margarine. Had to be more generous with the margarine or they would be too dry and difficult to swallow.

An inexpensive and healthy lunch.

Related post:
Tea with AK71: A loaf of bread.


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