Courage Marine: Chance to cut loss.

With the BDI sinking amidst a worsening situation of overcapacity and economic malaise in Europe, the rally in Courage Marine's share price provided a chance for me to cut my long exposure with minimal losses.

We are also blessed to have an industry insider, Jason, amongst the regular readers of ASSI and if the evidence provided is anything to go by, the bleak situation for bulk carriers looks set to worsen.

Low: 662.

Although Courage Marine entered the worsening state of affairs from a position of strength, it is unlikely to do better than the preceding year. In fact, for some, its very survival is in question.

With today's white candle formed on the back of higher volume, could we not see price going higher? We could, of course. 11c or even 12c could be tested next if the bullishness continues. I am already in the queue to sell.

Related post:
Courage Marine: BDI plunging.

NOL: Cutting losses on a strong rebound.

Months ago, I made an ill fated decision to go long in NOL. It was a decision based purely on TA and it was a trade that went awry. Straying from my tried and tested methodology of FA + TA plus a lack of a cut loss price has resulted in holding on to paper losses. I should perhaps stick to what I know best.

In more recent times, I traded shares of NOL and made some money. I bought as its price went to a low of sub $1.00 but by $1.22, I had divested. The strength with which its share price broke out of what seems to be a range has taken me by surprise although there were signs that price could have found a floor, if not the bottom.

Even so, the entire upmove in the broader market has taken much more seasoned investors by surprise. Just when we thought the market would be range bound and moving sideways for months to come, Mr. Market decided to shock us.

So, am I euphoric and think that everything is fine now and that prices will recover to what they were a year ago? I am not perfect but I am perfectly aware that, fundamentally, we are not out of the woods. Shipping industry will face a chronic situation of oversupply and weakening demand this year and possibly the next. Higher bunkering fees do not help.

Technically, I see immediate resistance at $1.45 or so and I am using this rebound to cut some losses. If $1.45 should be taken out cleanly and if the bullishness persists, a stronger resistance is at $1.55.

Related post:
NOL: Is the worst over?

A musical: Girl Talk.

The last time I watched a musical was years ago. I think it was Phantom of the Opera. Well, now, there is a new musical coming to town, Girl Talk!

Girl Talk follows three radio DJs: the eccentric Barbara, the rambunctious sexpert Dr. Laura and "Little Miss Perfect" Janice. Listen in on subjects such as sex, food, alcohol, babies and men!

With the original cast from Broadway, dance along to your favourite party tunes from Jennifer Lopez to Aretha Franklin.

Dates: 21 Feb - 4 Mar 2012
Location: Jubilee Hall, Raffles Hotel

Want to get a 15% discount off the price of tickets?
Click on this link to find out how:
http://sg.churpchurp.com/AK71SG/share/girltalk

LMIR: A slow and steady climb.

LMIR's unit price has been slowly and steadily climbing higher and this is netting me some handsome capital gains on the rights units from nil paid rights purchased not too long ago.

Remember I mentioned that LMIR was too cheap to sell? I still think it is too cheap to sell but it is approaching the fair value of 41c which I ascribed it back then. Technically, it is now also closing in on the next resistance level at 39.5c. 

If it should break 39.5c convincingly, we could see resistance provided by the declining 20wMA at 41c tested next. 41c coincides with the fair value I have ascribed to the REIT's unit price and I expect strong selling pressure if it should be tested.

I have done another partial divestment today at 39c, one bid away from the immediate resistance of 39.5c, taking some gains off the table. With this partial divestment, I now retain only a fifth of all the rights units from nil paid rights I purchased in its rights issue.

Why not wait for 41c? There is no way we can be sure that 41c will be tested and I am beginning to see some signs of possible weakness in the form of lower highs on the MFI and Stochastics with unit price pushing higher. The lower high on the MFI suggests weaker demand with price going higher.

On the weekly chart, the MACD has completed a positive crossover with the signal line but it is still in negative territory. Although MFI and Stochastics' gradual rise from their oversold territories suggest that there is some support for the REIT's unit price, we could see some price weakness in the coming weeks.

Accumulating when longer term supports are tested would be a good strategy. On the weekly chart, I see 36c as a technically attractive price to add to long positions.

Related posts:
LMIR: Partial divestment at 38c.
LMIR: Too cheap to sell.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: At $1.02 resistance.

On 19 January, I mentioned that if sentiments remain bullish, we could possibly see resistance at $1.02 for the REIT's unit price tested. My overnight sell orders at $1.015 and $1.02 were filled today.

Could the REIT's unit price push higher? It could but anyone thinking of buying into the REIT now might want to bear in mind that the REIT goes XD on 3 February and we could possibly see the REIT's unit price weakening then. Risk premium for going long is much higher now.

Momentum oscillators like the RSI and the Stochastics show the REIT to be very overbought and for a rather prolonged period by now. Only the MFI is not overbought.

The MFI takes into consideration price and volume and shows demand compared to the RSI. However, the MFI being where it is now is also the result of relatively low trading volumes.

Volume is the fuel that drives rallies. So, without volume, we could see the rally fizzle out in time.

Related posts:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Partial divestment.
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 3Q FY2012.

First REIT: Partial divestment at 76.5c.

First REIT never did test 80c after it went CD. The highest it touched was 78.5c. This morning, after it went XD, its unit price declined to a low of 76c.

I made a decision to divest units which I accumulated at 76.5c and 77c earlier last month in January. I managed to sell at 76.5c as 77c could once again assert itself as the immediate resistance.

Overall, I still make a gain as I would collect a DPU of 1.93c payable on 29 February on these divested units. Therefore, it has turned out rather decently as a trade.

When would I again add to my remaining long position in the REIT? I see stronger supports at 75c and 74.5c. Could we see them tested in the next two months? Your guess is as good as mine.

Related post:
First REIT: FY2011 results.

Cambridge Industrial Trust: 4Q FY2011.

Unit price of Cambridge Industrial Trust has been creeping upwards, probably in anticipation of the Trust going CD.

Total assets under management exceed $1b with recent revaluation of properties. This resulted in a lower gearing level apart from boosting NTA/unit to 62c. Year on year, gearing ratio has fallen from 34.7% to 33.1%. The REIT has no borrowings due until June 2014.

Interest cover ratio: 5.0x
Average land lease remaining: 36 years.

DPU increased quarter on quarter from 1.082c to 1.118c, representing an increase of 3.33%. Annualised, the distribution yield at 50c per unit is 8.94%.

The REIT will go XD on 6 February and the income distribution is payable on 29 February.

See presentation slides: here.

On 14 October 2011, I said that Cambridge Industrial Trust could be worth another look. That view has not changed.

See blog post here:
Cambridge Industrial Trust: Worth another look.

Related post:
Cambridge Industrial Trust: Templeton and acquisition.

Sabana REIT: Target BUY prices.

A reader mentioned that Sabana REIT's unit price has weakened to 88c after going XD. A further weakening in price could be an opportunity to accumulate. I have the same thought. After all, I divested a small portion of my investment in the REIT at 90c and 91c as its unit price rose in the last couple of weeks.

Question: What would be my target buy prices? Prices? Yes, I see stronger supports at 87c, 86c, 85c and 84.5c. So, I could possibly accumulate at these prices if they should be tested for support.

In a recent blog post, I said that Sabana REIT could possibly see a higher DPU in the next quarter. So, accumulating on weakness could be a very rewarding exercise. See blog post: here.

I would also pay attention to the momentum oscillators to see if the REIT is oversold at any point in time. Good luck to all of us.

Related post:
Sabana REIT: Partial divestment at 91c.

Capitaland: Pushing higher on lower volume.

Capitaland's share price touched a high of $2.66 and closed at $2.65. Remember that I mentioned that in very bullish circumstances we could see $2.65 or even $2.75 tested? This is still valid.

I did a partial divestment at $2.65 today. If the following week should see price pushing higher, I would be happy to divest once more. $2.75? It could happen although I see the declining 200dMA now at $2.73. This could limit further appreciation in price. Although bulls could push past this resistance, it would surprise me (pleasantly) if price could close above the 200dMA. Why do I say this?

Look at the trading volume. It has been reducing. Indeed, volume is also lower this week as compared to last week. Volume is the fuel that drives rallies and reducing volume could be an early signal of coming weakness in price. Volume precedes price.

Momentum oscillators also signal that greater caution should be exercised. On the daily charts, the MFI has entered overbought territory while the Stochastics has been overbought for some time. It is riskier to go long at present despite the return of positive momentum as shown by a rising MACD in positive territory.

Long holders could consider selling while anyone thinking of buying could consider waiting for a pull back to supports.

Related post:
Capitaland: Partial divestment at $2.48.