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Ever since the CPFB introduced a colorful pie chart of our CPF savings a few years ago, I would look forward to mine every year like a teena...

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Good debt is always good?

Tuesday, August 7, 2012

I look at debt as a necessary evil. Sometimes, I need that extra help in order to buy something.

Then, do I take as long as I can to repay the debt? Well, in this environment of very low interest rates, the concept of good debt has gained traction. Why not?

The idea of good debt is appealing because it gives us more funds which could possibly generate higher returns than the interest paid on the borrowed funds. What is the catch here? Yes, only if we can use the funds to generate higher returns.



The late Dennis Ng said that the rich always take on debt while the average man tries to be debt free. This is not always true. I know of rich towkays who have so much money in their bank accounts that they would pay for a luxury car in cash instead of taking a car loan! No matter how low the interest rate is on a car loan, it is still some 10x more than what a savings account pays in interest. I also know of average people who are leveraged to the max to capitalise on good debt.

So, who is right and who is wrong?

Recently, UOB came up with a 50 year home loan offer. Khaw Boon Wan has called this a gimmick, advising people not to fall for that and that it doesn't make sense. Now, does it make sense? For someone who is financially savvy and who is able to make his money work much harder, it could possibly make sense.

Personally, I am rather apathetic about the whole matter. There will always be people who are more comfortable with debt. Hey, ask the Americans. Then, there are those who are less comfortable with debt. I have heard of mainland Chinese buying condominium units with cold, hard cash.

Again, who is right and who is wrong? It is really subjective, isn't it?

For people who are proponents of good debt, the pertinent question to ask is whether our money can always make higher returns than the interest paid on the loans? For now, it looks that way. What happens the day the party ends? Are they getting drunk on debt?

For people who are more conservative, the pertinent question to ask is whether they could be short changing themselves by being debt free in this environment of very low interest rates. Of course, if the most sophisticated wealth building tool they know is fixed deposits, staying debt free is the way to go.

Like a friend told me, I have a choice. His intended message was that I have a choice whether or not to embrace good debt. Personally, I understand the concept but I am more comfortable being debt free.

I feigned ignorance and replied: "People who do not have a choice should not be investing in property." With this, I deviated from his line of reasoning that good debt is always good. Instead, I insinuated that people who do not have a choice but to borrow to invest in properties just because of the very low interest rate environment and the perceived future returns should think twice.

Of course, the choice is theirs. ;)

Tea with AK71: Climate change.

Monday, August 6, 2012

Let us take a break from all the hustle and bustle of our lives. Let us think about the world and if we are helping to make a difference.

Beijing was hit by the worst rainfall in 60 years last month.


The relentless, weather gone crazy type of heat that has blistered the USA and other parts of the world in recent years is so rare that it can't be anything but man-made global warming...

The research says that the likelihood of such temperatures occurring from the 1950s through the 1980s was rarer than one in 300, Now, the odds are closer to one in 10...

The increase in the chance of extreme heat, drought and heavy downpours in certain regions is so huge that scientists should stop hemming and hawing... AP



Mother Nature will find a way to right the imbalances. In Beijing, the official pollution index, which had showed an unhealthy rating before the storm hit, registered “excellent” after the storm, with the air noticeably free of its normal acrid smell. Full story: here.

If we do not make changes, Mother Nature will change things her way.

Related post:
Tea with AK71: Just storms?

Wilmar: Touched a new low.

Sunday, August 5, 2012

In the last session, Wilmar's share price touched a new low of $3.18. Many market participants are wondering if they should go long here. Of course, conventional wisdom would say wait for the sellers to be done selling.



So, are the sellers done selling? The OBV shows that distribution activity has not ceased. However, both MFI and MACD have not formed lower lows as compared to May 2012 when share price was higher but declining. Together, the technicals tell me that there are still sellers around but demand has picked up if only barely so.

Technically very weak, we could see lower prices for Wilmar's shares if the current floor fails to hold. Immediate support is at $3.18 while immediate resistance is at $3.54.

Although we could hope for a gap fill at $4.65 which is also where we find the declining 200dMA, that is a long shot and unlikely to happen in the near future.

After such a massive selling down, market participants are likely to take whatever gains they can and run for the hills if there should be any run up in share price. So, adopting a trading mentality could be fruitful for anyone interested in going long here.

Related post:
Wilmar: Not a time to sell.

China Minzhong: Pushing higher.

To any chart watchers, it is obvious that China Minzhong's share price has broken out of resistance.  From here the immediate resistance is provided by the declining 100dMA which is currently at 73c. It could approximate 72c in the next few sessions.




Overcoming the 100dMA could see a test of resistance provided by the 200dMA which is also declining but more gently so. The 200dMA is at 83c. The last time the 200dMA was tested was earlier this year in February.

With all the momentum oscillators up sharply, the worst is over for China Minzhong's share price, it would seem. MACD suggests a return of positive momentum. MFI suggests demand is stronger. OBV suggests robust and continuing accumulation.

It has to be said that a longer term downtrend that started in early 2011 is still intact. So, traders ought to be careful and watch the longer term resistance.

Related post:
China Minzhong: Crossroads.

Sound Global: Retest of resistance likely

On 7 July, I said that the technicals suggested it could be time to sell Sound Global's shares and that if price were to move higher, it would be a slow grind upwards. This picture has, essentially, stayed intact till now as its share price has been stuck at resistance, not being able to move convincingly above 61.5c, a many times tested resistance in the last few months.



Mr. Market is feeling slightly bullish of late and, so, could his attention move to Sound Global?

The company's fundamentals are strong and with sentiments improving, there is a chance that its share price could move higher. A retest of resistance at 61.5c looks likely. However, whether resistance could be taken out would depend on volume which has been rather low.

After 61.5c, the next major resistance is at 68c.

Related post:
Sound Global: Would I buy now?

Sound Global said it has agreed to undertake the second phase to expand the existing capacity as well as to increase the existing discharge standard of the wastewater treatment plant BOT project in Jingbian County, Shaanxi Province, China.


Ben & Jerry’s Chunkfest!

Saturday, August 4, 2012

Have you been to an ice-cream beach festival? Ice-cream what? Yes, an ice-cream beach festival!


Featuring 15 exclusive and specially flown flavours from around the world as well as our favourite flavours in Singapore, there will be fun, games and activities for everyone. And to top it all, we are also introducing a brand new flavor at the event this year!

Join us from 2pm to 10pm on August 25, 2012!

Follow this link for full details: Ben & Jerry's Chunkfest!

Saizen REIT: Beefing up distributable income.

Saizen REIT has been adding apartment buildings to its portfolio since resolving the CMBS for YK Shintoku. This will go some way to ameliorating the expected decline in DPU due to warrants exercised earlier.



Since my blog post of 26 May 2012, Saizen REIT's unit price has been rising gradually, hitting a high of 16c just two sessions ago. Mr. Market has recovered from his anxiety and is making up for over selling the REIT back in May, it seems.

For anyone who has missed the boat and is thinking of jumping in now, I would say that the risk premium is higher now, obviously. In the last two years or so, the highest Saizen REIT's unit price went to was 18c, if I remember correctly. Would its unit price push to test 18c again? I am almost confident it would but when would it do so? That, I cannot say.

If the REIT's unit price should decline, there are layers of support with longer term supports clustered at 14.6c, 14.4c and 14.3c. The shorter term 20dMA is at 15.4c. People anticipating its half yearly income distribution which is payable sometime in September and to be announced this month could be eyeing the 20dMA. So, the support, if tested, could show some strength in the near term.

Related post:
Saizen REIT: Why did I buy and would I buy more?



Japan Residential Assets Manager, the manager (of Saizen Real Estate Investment Trust (Saizen REIT),said associate Godo Kaisha has agreed to acquire of Rise Yotsugibashi (RYB) from an independent party for JPY 428 million ($6.8 million).


RYB is a brand new building built in June. It comprises 49 residential units, three car parking lots and five bicycle lots....


RYB is currently in the process of being tenanted. It is expected to generate annual revenue and net property income of JPY 36.3 million and JPY 27.5 million respectively, which are equivalent to about 0.9% and 1.1% of Saizen REIT’s annual revenue and net property income in the financial year ended 30 June 2011 (FY2011).


LMIR: 2Q 2012 DPU 0.79c.

Friday, August 3, 2012

LMIR has increased distributable income, giving a distribution per unit (DPU) of 0.79c in 2Q 2012, payable on 30 August 2012. This an improvement over the DPU of 0.69c in 1Q 2012. Having said this, it is still lower than the 0.815c I estimated, post rights.



LMIR has a gearing level of 9.3% (9.2% in 1Q 2012) and its interest cover ratio is 11.4x (13.3x in 1Q 2012).  There is plenty of debt headroom and I still believe that growth through further acquisitions is likely to be funded fully by debt and we could see DPU improving by a fair amount.

Indonesia remains a growth story with domestic consumption forming some 60% of its GDP. The demand for quality retail space is growing over time.

LMIR remains a bullet proof REIT with a strong balance sheet. However, whether it could deliver meaningfully higher DPU depends on its management which seems slow to act and has, in my opinion, under-delivered, post rights.


Would at I buy at current prices? No.

See slides presentation: here.

Related post:
LMIR: 1Q 2012 DPU 0.69c.

Masters In Management - At The London Business School















In a very competitive job market, are you thinking of how to stand out from the crowd? Have you thought of having a Masters Degree to give you that competitive edge in job applications?

London Business School is looking to increase the number of Masters in Management (MiM) applications it receives from graduates/recent graduates with less than a year’s work experience, who are looking for a post-graduate business course. 

The Master in Management (MiM) programme will lay the foundations for a successful career in business as it gives students a competitive edge in front of global recruiters. 

The MiM programme helps students develop deep knowledge and skills in the key areas of business that can be transferred directly to the corporate world. 
 Develop deep knowledge and skills in the key areas of business that can be transferred directly to the corporate world · Develop deep knowledge and skills in the key areas of business that can be transferred directly to the co
The MiM programme also comes with a Career Skills Programme which runs alongside academic study and assists students with career evaluation, job search and professional skill development.

To stay relevant and current, the MiM programme was developed in extensive consultation with top recruiters and the curriculum focuses on the knowledge and skills that employers demand.

Leading recruiters regularly visit the school and the programme's Career and Business Immersion weeks provide exclusive opportunities to meet top graduate employers.

In just one year, LBS graduates can get a world-respected brand on their CV. 

The 2011 Masters in Management Employment Report shows that:

· 96% of the class secured an offer of employment within three months of graduation

· 42% of graduates went into finance; 35% into consulting and 23% into corporate sectors

· There was an increase in the number of students being hired into the same organisation which shows that recruiters value the contribution MiM make.

· Companies hiring MiMs included A.T. Kearney, Apple, Bain & Company, Booz & Company, Citi, Google, HSBC, L'Oreal, McKinsey & Company, The Boston Consulting Group, Unilever, Universal McCann, UBS and ZS Associates. 

See the full report here.

MiM alum Andreas Lubbe, who used the MiM to fast-track his business career, said: "I felt that there was no degree other than the London Business School Masters in Management that would really help to prepare me for working in top tier companies."

Andreas's programme experience video is available on the London Business School Masters in Management website.http://bs.serving-sys.com/BurstingPipe/adServer.bs?cn=tf&c=20&mc=click&pli=4543570&PluID=0&ord=[timestamp]  

So, if you are thinking of gaining a strong competitive edge in a business career, why not consider the London Business School Masters in Management?  MiM is a full-time, 12 month programme and the next start date is September 2012.

For more information, download the brochure here

Relevant links:
London Business School
Masters In Management


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