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Seeking Alpha.

Saturday, December 22, 2012

In my early days as a blogger, I was much more active in commenting on other platforms.


Just now, I visited "Seeking Alpha" and found an old Instablog I did for them and some comments which I wrote as well. I think these must be at least 2 years old.

See the Instablog:
http://seekingalpha.com/user/736173/instablog

See the comments I wrote:
http://seekingalpha.com/user/736173/comments

I am giving in to nostalgia today. Hahaha... The good old days.

Related post:
REITs: When to buy?

A reader won a hamper from Yomeishu!

Friday, December 21, 2012

I make a modest amount of money from ads in my blog. Most of the ads are pay per click in nature and if readers should be interested in the ads and click on them, I get some pocket money (e.g. 20c per click from Nuffnang).

I particularly like ads from companies which offer good deals to consumers, are socially and environmentally responsible and give my readers a chance to get something for free. This way, the ads which appear on my blog are win-win-win in nature. A win for the advertisers. A win for my blog. A win for my readers.

A few days ago, a reader sent me an email to say that she won a hamper by clicking on one of the ads which appeared in my blog. She was so happy that she took a photo of the hamper and emailed to me. Here it is:

Very nice!

To the lucky reader, thank you for sharing this happy news with me and, once again, congratulations!

There will be 20 winners each week and I believe that the last round of the contest (5th week) ends 26 December 2012. You might want to try your luck and see if you could win a hamper too at: Yomeishu Guess & Win!

Would be a nice Christmas present, wouldn't it? :)

Related post:
Yomeishu: Win Megumi and a beverage mixer!

Old Chang Kee: Special interim dividend.


Shares of Old Chang Kee are trading higher today at 42c a share. A special interim dividend for the half year ended September 2012 has been declared. The amount? 5c per share.

Incidentally, I bought some Old Chang Kee curry puffs just yesterday! Yummy curry puffs! So is this special dividend.

This certainly brightens up the holiday season for all shareholders.

Read announcement: here.

Related post:
Old Chang Kee: Initiated long position at 26c.

Unhappy Singaporeans.

Apparently, Singaporeans are the unhappiest people in the world if we believe a recent survey.



People here were less “upbeat” than those living in war-torn places like Iraq, Armenia and Afghanistan, Gallup suggested, based on a poll of 1000 respondents in each of 148 countries.

Nearly 150,000 respondents were posed five questions on whether they experienced a lot of enjoyment the day before the survey and whether they felt respected, well-rested, laughed and smiled a lot, and did or learned something interesting. While about 50 per cent of people in Armenia and Iraq did, only 46 per cent of Singaporeans could say the same.

Singapore came in first, ahead of Armenia, Iraq, Georgia, Yemen and Serbia, for being the least positive.

This led Gallup partner Joe Clifton to suggest that “higher income does not necessarily mean higher wellbeing,” given Singapore’s poor faring even though it ranks fifth in the world in terms of GDP per capita.

Personally, I am rather sceptical. Why?

1. To me, the sample size of 1,000 respondents from each country is too small.

2. I would also ask how were the respondents chosen? Are the 1,000 respondents representative of the national population of the country?

3. Are the questions posed sufficiently exhaustive to conclude that Singaporeans are a unhappy lot?

While I agree that making more money might not make a person happier, I find it hard to believe that Singaporeans feel less positive compared to the nationals of war-torn countries like Iraq and Afghanistan! Of course, this represents my personal opinion.

Read: Singaporeans unhappiest people in the world.

Recommended books for FA and TA.

Thursday, December 20, 2012

I used to have a little widget in my blog which listed the books I would recommend to anyone who might be interested in learning about Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis through self-study. 

Unfortunately, that widget from Amazon slowed down the speed at which my blog was loaded and, so, I removed it.

Since then, I would have to list the books for readers who might email me for a book list. 

So, I have decided to provide the book list here in a blog post. 

This would make it easier for both readers and me. This is, perhaps, long overdue.







For fundamental analysis (FA):

1. Warren Buffett and the Interpretation of Financial Statements: The Search for the Company with a Durable Competitive Advantage.
See:
Warren Buffett and the Interpretation of Financial Statements: The Search for the Company with a Durable Competitive Advantage



2. Fundamental Analysis For Dummies.
See:
Fundamental Analysis for Dummies

What's the key to multibillionaire Warren Buffett's five-decade run as the most successful investor in history? Fundamental analysis. Now, "Fundamental Analysis For Dummies" puts this tried and true method for gauging any company's true underlying value into sensible and handy step-by-step instructions.

For those who prefer e-books:
Fundamental Analysis For Dummies





















For technical analysis (TA):

1. Technical Analysis Plain and Simple: Charting the Markets in Your Language (3rd Edition).
See:
Technical Analysis Plain and Simple: Charting the Markets in Your Language


For those who prefer e-books:
Technical Analysis Plain and Simple



2. Technical Analysis For Dummies, 2nd Edition.
See:
Technical Analysis for Dummies


For those who prefer e-books:
Technical Analysis For Dummies



3. Candlestick Charting for Dummies.
See:
Candlestick Charting for Dummies



You could possibly borrow these books from the local libraries. 

If you would like to buy the books instead, please consider buying them from BetterWorldBooks to help save the environment and fund literacy for the less fortunate. They ship free globally.

Visit BetterWorldBooks here:
Free Shipping Worldwide


Find out more about BetterWorldBooks at:
ASSI is an affiliate of BetterWorldBooks.

Related post:
Why is Warren Buffet the world's greatest money maker?

Saizen REIT: Daily share buy backs.


A friend told me he is waiting for Saizen REIT's unit price to weaken before he buys some. I informed him that Saizen REIT has been buying back units from Mr. Market. So, there could be some support for its unit price in such a situation.

Daily share buy backs:
14 Dec 12 - 330,000 units @ 17.2 c
13 Dec 12 - 310,000 units @ 17.332 c
12 Dec 12 - 310,000 units @ 17.36 c
16 Nov 12 - 360,000 units @ 16.78 c
12 Nov 12 - 400,000 units @ 17.2 c
9 Nov 12 - 400,000 units @ 17.3 c
16 Oct 12 - 350,000 units @ 16.73 c
15 Oct 12 - 900,000 units @ 16.6 c
12 Oct 12 - 350,000 units @ 16.6 c
8 Oct 12 - 900,000 units @ 16.6 c
3 Oct 12 - 330,000 units @ 16.48 c
25 Sep 12 - 680,000 units @ 16.4 c

Although Saizen REIT's unit price has advanced since hitting a low in the middle of this year, I feel that it is still rather undervalued.



Fundamentally, the only negative I see for unit holders now is the weakening JPY which is probably going to decline further in value against the S$.

In a recent blog post, I made some assumptions which could be useful for anyone thinking of parking some funds in this REIT. See: REITs: When to buy?

It is, perhaps, also worth taking note that the units bought back from the open market were cancelled instead of being held as treasury stock (for possible re-issue in future). With less units in issue, the expected lower DPU in S$ terms due to a weakening JPY, everything else remaining constant, could be less of a concern.

Technically, the rising 100d MA should provide some support at 16.7c. Failing to hold could see price testing the 200d MA for support which is rising and approximates 15.5c now. If unit price should go that low, I could possibly add to my long position.

US$2.61 for Gucci Jewelry Series TPU shells.

Wednesday, December 19, 2012


3D case for iPhone 5: Vampire.
3D case for iPhone 5: Polar Bears.

Looking for a cool and inexpensive case for your iPhone 5 for the new year? Stand out from the crowd with these snazzy patterns for only US$2.36 each! Free shipping!

Don't have an iPhone 5? Have a Galaxy Note II instead? Look at these:


Gucci Jewelry Series: Pigeon.
Gucci Jewelry Series: Clock.





 
Only US$ 2.61 each! Gucci Jewelry Series TPU shells for the Galaxy Note II! Free shipping!

Shop online at:
Free gift for any order over $30 at eforchina.com!

 and search under New Arrivals.

You can't miss it!

I like getting good value for money! Happy shopping!




Related post:
Save money with low prices and free shipping globally!

MIIF: Realising value.

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

The last time I blogged about MIIF was more than two years ago although I would reply to readers' comments or emails about the counter from time to time since. I have a long history with MIIF. It was recommended to me by a friend and I got in at a unit price of $1.00. Yes, no kidding.

See the elusive Mt. Fuji?
It seems that MIIF's value will elude unit holders no more.

Through the GFC, MIIF's unit price sank and the lowest unit price I bought some at was 29.5c on 6 January 2009, if my records are accurate. I bought more over a 6 months period from then as its unit price rose to 35.5c. Coming out of the GFC, MIIF strengthened its balance sheet through certain divestments, rationalised its portfolio and concentrated on Asian assets. Its DPU also improved.

As I was convinced that S-REITs were deeply undervalued and, for me, they are also easier businesses to understand, my investment in MIIF was not nurtured further.

By middle of this year, undervalued S-REITs were hard to find except for a small window of opportunity when Saizen REIT's unit price sank 15% in May/June. As regular readers know, I was also putting money into stocks looking for possible capital gains by then since it was harder to expect that from S-REITs going into the future.

It was around the same time that I increased my investment in MIIF at 51c/unit. Relatively strong balance sheet, NAV/unit at about 70c and a DPU of 5.5c per annum. Frankly, if not for the lack of options in S-REITs, I would probably not have increased my investment in MIIF as the fund owns myriad businesses in various countries and it is not as easy to understand as the S-REITs in my portfolio.

Today, I received an email from MIIF:

The Board of Macquarie International Infrastructure Fund Limited (MIIF) today announced the completion of the Strategic Review which was initiated in June 2012.

The Strategic Review, which included an assessment by CIMB Bank Berhad, Singapore Branch (CIMB) and consultation with a cross section of shareholders, generated a number of key observations. After considering these observations and assessing the alternatives available to MIIF, the Board has concluded that in order to maximise value for MIIF’s shareholders the strategy for MIIF should change.

As a result, the Board has decided to undertake the following initiatives:

  • Distribute existing excess cash to shareholders as a one-off special dividend;
  • Commence a joint process with Macquarie Korea Opportunities Fund (MKOF), MIIF’s TBC co-shareholder, to realise maximum value for their investment in TBC;
  • Pursue the orderly divestments of MIIF’s interests in HNE, CXP and Miaoli Wind;
  • Distribute proceeds from any divestment to shareholders as soon as practicable; and
  • Allow MIIF’s corporate-level debt facility to lapse upon maturity.

These initiatives have been formulated with a focus on maximising and returning value to MIIF shareholders. The Board will endeavour to execute these initiatives in a timely manner; however, these initiatives involve complex processes which will require active management and prudent actions to safeguard the interests of MIIF shareholders.


Good news for unitholders. Well, Mr. Market seems to like it anyway.

Related post:
MIIF: Seeing value.

Never lose money in real estate and REITs?

Sunday, December 16, 2012

I have cautioned people that we are likely to see a decline in prices of residential properties in the next few years. Unless we are sure that we are looking at an undervalued property, we should think again about passing that cheque to the agent. After all, it is a big financial commitment.

The government continues to make more land available for new residential developments. Already, there is a rising vacancy rate in non-landed private residential properties. This would likely worsen as more developments are completed in the next two years. We could have the perfect cocktail for a deep correction in the market if interest rates should head north come 2015.

We retain our negative view on the Singapore residential sector as we continue to see a rising threat of vacancy with an acceleration in physical completions in 2013-15.

Vacancy rates for non-landed private units had increased from 5.9% to 6.1% qoq in 3Q12 as take-up continued to lag physical completions. URA estimates that completions will rise from 16.1k units in 2013 to 23.1k units in 2015, 2-3x more than the historical average occupancy rate of 8k units per year.

We forecast that physical residential prices will fall by 5% by end-FY13, with vacancy rates for private units up from 6.1% currently to 7.2%. (CIMB, 11 Dec 12)

With industrial properties, the government has also made more land available in order to keep the cost of doing business down in Singapore. With investors channelling their funds into commercial and industrial properties due to cooling measures imposed on residential properties, prices of commercial and industrial spaces have sky rocketed.


In all areas, how much of the demand is, therefore, user demand? How much of the demand is from property investors and speculators? The end result is the same. Prices are pushed up which leads to more building. We don't need a degree in Economics to know that oversupply will bring down prices. People who bought at high prices should have deep pockets to avoid foreclosure.

So, how will my investments in industrial S-REITs be affected? They will not escape unscathed, for sure. This is where the quality of the management will be called into question. Quality of management?

For example, Saizen REIT has been able to maintain occupancy of 90% or so for their properties in Japan despite the difficult conditions and much lower occupancy levels of competing properties. I believe in their management's quality.

So, if the management is up to scratch, we could see above average occupancy levels even as more supply comes on stream. However, in a situation where there are many alternative offerings, to retain tenants, rental rates would probably come under pressure.

Although we could continue to see some yield compression in 2013 as money seeks out higher returns in industrial S-REITs, I would be surprised to see unit prices rising by more than 10 or 15% next year. If people ask me if this is still a good time to invest in industrial S-REITs, I would say it is still good if we are investing for income but, perhaps, not so good if we are looking for capital appreciation.

My two largest investments in industrial S-REITs are:
1. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT
2. Sabana REIT

Of the two, I am more impressed with the former's management quality. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT's management have renewed many tenancies ahead of time while Sabana REIT which has almost 48% of its tenancies expiring next year is slow to show results.


So, do we press the panic button? I think not. Sabana REIT would probably be able to renew most, if not all, of its expiring tenancies as the full impact of the new supply coming on stream would not be felt in the very short term. Nonetheless, the impression I get of a management that seem to be dragging their feet nags at me.

I have stayed positive on S-REITs for quite a while now. It is now prudent to turn more cautious on S-REITs although it is too early to turn negative.

Supported by lower than average completion of new industrial space over the past few years, vacancy levels for all industrial segments (Business Parks, Multi-User Factories and Warehouses) have hit record lows. This had led to a strong surge in industrial capital values and rents by 6-26% since the start of 2012. Looking ahead, we see market dynamics turning given that close to 49.7msqft of industrial space currently under construction will be completed over 2013-2015. This, on an annualised basis, represents more than twice the annual supply over the past decade.
(DBS Group Research, 6 Dec 12)

Related posts:
1. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 2Q 2013.
2. Sabana REIT: 3Q 2012 DPU 2.34c.
3. Staying positive on S-REITs.
4. AK71's simple strategy.
5. REITs: When to buy?


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