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China Minzhong: What could happen and what to do?

Tuesday, August 27, 2013

I received an SMS from a friend that CIMB and Lim & Tan ceased coverage of China Minzhong. I responded by saying that maybe I should do it too. Seems like an easy way out of the mess. If analysts who are paid to do what they do are jumping ship, shouldn't an amateur investor and part time blogger do the same?

On a more serious note, with this event following so closely another event which recently affected a few readers, I am thinking more deeply about the future direction of my blog. ASSI today is not the ASSI from almost four years ago, after all. Blogging is meant to be an enjoyable past time for me but with the rising popularity of my blog, naturally, there will be greater expectations and, with this, greater responsibility, whether I want it or not.

It should not come as a surprise that I have been thinking quite a bit about China Minzhong since yesterday. However, it might come as a surprise that I am not too affected by the possibility of a total loss if all allegations by Glaucus Research were proven true in due course.

I am more affected by the possibility that some readers might have followed my moves to buy into China Minzhong when I did. Well, if they should make money, all well and good, but if they should lose money, then, I would be quite unhappy. This is something that is constantly on my mind now.

I was really thinking of not blogging at least until China Minzhong's management has issued a more substantial response which, hopefully, would be a point by point rebuttal against the allegations made by Glaucus Research. Although some might disagree, I maintain that unless we have heard from both parties, it is too early to conclude anything.

So, what changed my mind and why am I blogging now? Well, as some might guess, I received quite a few emails, comments and messages over this matter. To all the people who have sent me encouraging messages and who have shown concern, my heartfelt thanks. I also received a suggestion that I could share my thoughts on what am I going to do now.

I read some unkind remarks that some have made about people who are invested in China Minzhong and some also made conjectures as to how we might hold demonstrations in Hong Lim Park, asking the government to intervene and, perhaps, even to hold GIC accountable. Well, apart from being unhelpful, these remarks might make affected investors feel worse about the whole matter. I will ignore these people. It is not a productive use of time and energy to engage in a debate with them.

Instead, all who are vested should think of what could happen and what to do.

Obviously, there isn't anything we could do until the trading halt has been lifted and this is unlikely to happen until China Minzhong has issued a more substantial response. There is always a likelihood that the stock could be suspended, pending further investigation. Whether a suspension takes place or not, we might want to make provision in our books for the possibility of a total loss.

Assuming that the stock were not suspended and that trading were to resume, shareholders would have to determine for themselves if they were satisfied with China Minzhong's reply. To stay invested or to divest would depend largely on this.

I will say that even if some of the allegations against China Minzhong should be proven false, this episode would still cast a pall over the stock and might affect its share price negatively. Only if all of the allegations were proven false would China Minzhong live to see the light of day once more.

Of course, there is really no way anyone could tell for sure how things would turn out next. Instead of guessing and losing sleep, the best thing to do is to get on with life and wait for further developments.

However, for people who have invested much more than they should have in China Minzhong, this could be a tall order. This is why I have said time and time again that we should always only invest with money we can afford to lose and not more.

Related post:
Share price plunged by more than 50%!

69 comments:

Tien Song Chuan said...

I wonder what is in these people's minds when they want to hold GIC accountable. On what grounds?

Sanguine said...

Hi AK71,

i consider this incident as a black swan event to me. (of course in hindsight many will tell me why i shouldnt put my money in CMZ in the first place or exit when it was at the highs)

i have already writen off my entire capital that i put in CMZ.

i am prepared for the possible scenarios.

-if trading halt is lifted, i will exit all my positions in CMZ without hesitation

-if suspension so be it, i have already booked it as a loss in my portfolio

my point for all CMZ investors to prepare your plan of action and act swiftly and decisively.

Fortune favours the bold but in this case, i prefer to sleep easy at night and worry any more about the capital in CMZ

AK71 said...

Hi Tien,

Nah, I doubt anyone would do anything like that. It was just something someone wrote online, probably to ridicule people who invested in China Minzhong.

AK71 said...

Hi Sanguine,

Many investors were caught off guard by the report from Glaucus Research and the ferocity of the sell down. However, to go into a stupor is not going to help.

Thank you for sharing with us your action plan. :)

Now, I wonder if I should get myself schooled in "forensic research" as well.

Apparently, this was what a local analyst said when he ceased coverage of China Minzhong:

"Admittedly, such detailed forensic research which requires a lot of time and resources is beyond the reach of local analysts like myself."

Tien Song Chuan said...

"Admittedly, such detailed forensic research which requires a lot of time and resources is beyond the reach of local analysts like myself."

This is really a cop out. Unprofessional.

Sanguine said...

missing word in earlier comment should be "and not worry any more about the capital in CMZ"

AK71 said...

Hi Tien,

In case you might be interested in reading all the comments (11 in total), here is the link:

http://www.remisiers.org/cms_images/research/Aug26-Aug30_2013/0827_LT.pdf

Tien Song Chuan said...

Thanks!!! GIC is also involved omg.

Solace said...

Hi AK,

Even professional Analyst and investor cannot see this coming. Only people with insider info will know.

Win or lose, we still continue in our journey in investing. This is a very humbling experience which i will remember for long long long time.

Cheer up. Still looking forward to see and hear your insight in your blog in the future. :)

I have yet to start writing on a guest blog post, will start on it once i am less busy from work. :)

AK71 said...

Hi Tien,

Hence, the question whether GIC was party to the alleged fraud since they were a pre-IPO investor in China Minzhong.

This is also the reason why I find it so hard to believe that particular allegation made by Glaucus Research. Of course, this does not mean that it cannot be true. GIC's due diligence might not have been good enough.

Tien Song Chuan said...

The question is: since GIC is supporting its listing, why are they selling it?
However it is also good that they have sold early, it is the citizens' money after all.

AK71 said...

Hi Solace,

Very humbling. My sentiment exactly.

It is fortunate that I limited my exposure to S-chips to no more than 10% of my portfolio. It is unfortunate the exposure to S-chips at this point in time is in a single stock.

On a happier note, I look forward to your next blog post. :)

I would like to have many more guest bloggers as I definitely do not know everything.

AK71 said...

Hi Tien,

They were made an offer by Indofood. I think the price was $1.12 a share. Hard to find a buyer who was able to take over GIC's entire stake in a single transaction. GIC was China Minzhong's largest shareholder back then.

The investment was a good one for GIC. It was a ten fold gain, I believe. :)

Gary said...

Hi AK,

In my opinion, we (as in retail investors) are only small fries as compared to other bigger players who can easily shake the price of the shares. I believe that you have given your best opinion for this company. Each investor must realise that he is responsible for his own actions rather than to blame other people for causing them into deep shit. Don't worry, I'm sure that you have done your best! =)

Tien Song Chuan said...

This case reminded me of Chartered Semiconductor which I discussed with you the last time, you remember? Lots of Government support does not mean it is a good thing.

Solace said...

Hi Ak,

It saddens me to see that not all bad eggs S-Chips have been removed since 2006-2007.

This episode has implication on other S-chips as well. Today, i have sold off my holding in DuKang.

All a sudden, i find that i cannot apply fundamental analysis on these companies any more.

I am only left with PCRT, which i will still hold on.

Casey said...

Hi AK,

I always think that stocks like China Beauty, China Dairy, ChinaMinZhong, and even China Fishery are too complicated for me to invest. I have been following and studying China Fishery for a few years, and only last year I found out that I have totally misunderstood their operating system and that was when a mini crisis broke out. No wonder I never see an operation photo from their annual report. Hence, I stay where I should, investing with FA, and invest in the blue chips and of course the blue chip reits only, like what you did a few years earlier. TA is simply too risky. Hopefully, this will turn out not as bad as you have thought, you will definitely become stronger after this. Cheers.
Casey

Kelvin Lim said...

Hi AK.

Despite your concerns about your potential reach and influence on readers, I really hope you continue blogging as I've benefited greatly from your analysis and viewpoints, even though my opinions may differ from yours at times.

For more "controversial" posts, you may like to reinforce and remind readers about the potential downside. After all, some readers may not truly appreciate the importance of diversification.

AK71 said...

Hi Gary,

The best, given my abilities. This incident tells me that I have much more to learn.

It would seem that my move away from S-REITs to search for undervalued stocks as I revealed in my end of year report last year has met with its first (and, hopefully, only) major set back.

Thanks for your kind words. :)

AK71 said...

Hi Tien,

How could I forget? I lost money in Chartered Semicon as well. A blue chip that became a blue black chip. ;p

Tien Song Chuan said...

S-chips may crash like dominoes..

AK71 said...

Hi Solace,

I was told that other S-chips suffered from the fall out today too. It is rather a pity.

For sure, if we cannot trust the management, then, there is no point in doing any FA since we would just be analysing fiction.

PCRT is a Singaporean outfit with Mr. Kuok Khoon Hong as a major shareholder. Crossing fingers.

Tien Song Chuan said...

Solace: The best type of fundamental analysis is putting it in your mouth. You drank coca cola and eaten old chang kee, but have you eaten any Minzong food?

Solace said...

Hi Tien,

Wahahaha, Nice one! And a really good reminder, just to look around us to look for things that are great.

I have eaten plenty of mushrooms, but i don't think any of them come from MinZhong. LoL

AK71 said...

Hi Casey,

Yes, there was a time when I applied a blanket ban on all S-chips from my investments. :)

What did I do a few years ago? I will have to try going back.

I have already looked at how a zero value China Minzhong might damage my portfolio. Although not insignificant, it is not going to be crippling. Thanks for the well wishes. :)

AK71 said...

Hi Kelvin,

I can only remind readers again and again that I am really not giving any advisories. Not allowed to.

However, it could be a better thing for me to simply not blog about any stocks. There is no way I could do any damage then.

Anyway, still thinking. :)

Hey, when you disagree with me about anything, must let me know, ok? Better still, send an email to me and do a guest blog post! ;p

AK71 said...

Hi Tien,

Are you a fellow shareholder of Old Chang Kee? ;)

AK71 said...

Hi Solace,

Looks like we are going to be spending a lot more time scuttlebutting. ;)

Hey, time to fly to China to look at PCRT's properties! Take more photos. Come back and do a guest blog post for ASSI, ok? ;p

AhJohn said...

Hi AK, good lesson to me as well. Your blog is good, that it help us to learn together, also the valuable comments. So just treat yourself as facilitator.

Tien Song Chuan said...

No, regrettably not. When you told me you are eating Old Chang Kee, I admired you. Warren Buffet will drink coke when presenting annual reports to his shareholders, putting money where his mouth is. To me, this is a real master investor.

AK71 said...

Hi Ah John,

A facilitator? I will have to think of how to transform my blog into a forum then. ;)

The current layout cannot do this.

AK71 said...

Hi Tien,

Ah, some would say old people shouldn't be drinking sweet carbonated drinks or eating deep fried fast food! I like you! ;p

Tien Song Chuan said...

I know nothing about S-chips, but what I do know is that in China, dogs can put in place of lions to cheat zoo visitors. (掛羊頭賣狗肉)
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/sideshow/-chinese-zoo-tries-passing-dog-off-as-lion--180952559.html
http://edition.cnn.com/2013/08/16/world/asia/china-zoo-dog-lion

tostubi said...

Hi AK,

Thank you for always patiently replying all my queries and questions when i first started with stocks.

i do not have a broker cause i use SCB. it was people like you that i learnt from. you spent your precious time replying me. i'm still a student.

just wanted to give you some words of encouragement to carry on blogging. i have learnt alot over the past 3 years of shares investment, not just from you but thru other means. but your blog has always had that human touch to it. it is still a useful learning site to both new and experienced investors.

forums... you can apply for "MASTER" status in sharejunction. hahaha!

but only through blogging will you be carrying on the writing of your "textbook" on shares investment.

each year, can consider 1 edition. like my thermodynamics textboook which is now in its 7th edition. constantly updated as things changes around the world.

all the best AK!

to all who lost $ in minzhong too.
don't fret! and stay cheerful!
can't drink starbucks anymore but u're still alive! :D :D all is well!

JCK said...

To those who accord blame to others(cept maybe professional ANALysts and FuUN managers),

DYODD- Do Your Own Due Deligience

Caveat Emptor- Buyer Beware!

AK71 said...

Hi tostubi,

Thank you for taking the time to write a very encouraging comment.

I am quite philosophical about the possible loss of money here. The market will always be there and I will just have to be more careful in future.

I am and will always be a student of Mr. Market. I don't think the status of "Master" is appropriate for me. I know I definitely don't know everything. How to be a "Master"? :)

When we lose money because we did not do any due diligence, it is like losing money at gambling. When we lose money even though we have done due diligence, then, we have to question our FA skills.

I will archive this experience so that such a mistake will not be repeated.

veronika said...

There is always 2 sides.

The dark & the bright, good & bad, profit & loss.
On top of that, when we do any TA or FA we use data that is available in the public domain. What other numbers, data that lies beneath is unknown... despite regulations.

We have laws that punish us for doing things that are undesireable. But that happens after the act.

Same with investing.

That is why we must invest with cash that is extra. Any other means will result in painful loss.
People who read, follow your thoughts may have profitted in terms of money. But do they share that with you?

Now, with the prospect of loss, they blame you? and want you to share that loss?
That is most unkind and they do not have a leg to stand on.Moraly & legaly too.

I for one am appreciative of your sharing.
Privately I disagree on some points, yet many points that you make is reasonable,logical, sensible and have empircal support.

This is a very important event since, all this while the market has gone up & up. It is time to blog about:

1. Staying power
2. Basic fundementals
3. Managing losses
4. Techniques in recovery
5. Purpose of buying, investing, selling

Keep it going man!!

Steven Yap said...

Hi AK,

You are not forcing anyone to press the button to buy/sell. Anyone who is looking for someone to blame, should just look into a mirror to find that culprit.

Dont need to worry too much. Do carry on with your blogs, i really appreciate the thoughts and advices that you posted regularly. It reminds me to stay the course and remember what i am looking for in my investment journey.


Best Regards,
Steven

jovan said...

Hi AK,

Honestly we have to be hold accountable for our own actions. You dint force anyone if they dint click on the submit button themselves.

FYA, I am vested myself and I am not blaming anyone as I did my own homework. Just like in life, you make mistakes but you will learnt from it too as no one is perfect.

Some quotes I share in my Facebook account from Lessons learned in life which is find it very meaningful "Some people can be mean and treat you poorly. Dont take it personally. It says nothing about you but a lot about them"

:)

Thank you
Jovan

jojo said...

Hi AK,
Don't be disheartened by what has happened to date. You blog about investing (other stuff as well, but mainly shares-related) because you enjoy it and you are passionate about securities investing and want to share your passion with others. So don't forget this is the reason why you blog in the first place.
Whilst some readers may be shallow, others who follow your blog are not and truly benefit from learning online from you.
Concerning your mention of "forensic research", I'd like to recommend a book to you and your readers -> "Quality of Earnings, the investor's guide to how much money a coy is really making". I have just started reading the book and chapter 8 "Two Key Ratios: Accts Rec'ble & Inventories" esp caught my interest. It is a good reference book, and I am sure chapter 8 & other chapters may be relevant to CMZ's financials (although I have not looked into CMZ nos.).
Thanks very much for blogging and don't be disheartened. I have learnt very much from you and some bloggers to date, and am sure will keep on learning.

AK71 said...

Hi Veronika,

Thanks for the encouraging comment.

I have to clarify that I have not received any direct demands from anyone regarding their investments in China Minzhong. I think I have a cool bunch of people reading my blogs. :)

As for disagreeing with anything I might have blogged about, please let me know. I want to learn from others as well. So, don't feel shy about leaving comments here.

Actually, even better, why not email to me a guest blog post? You have identified 5 areas to blog about too. ;p

AK71 said...

Hi Steven,

From investing for income, I decided to shift resources into investing for growth as well as a combination of growth and income. I still believe that this strategy is sound but I will have to be more careful from now on.

Thanks for your encouragement. :)

AK71 said...

Hi Jovan,

It is not so bad to make mistakes as long as we learn from them. You are right, of course. :)

I am fortunate that I have limited my exposure to the stock and, in the event of a total loss, it would not cripple my finances. This is an important point to remember.

Ivanp said...

Hi AK,

We are only humans so I hope you can continue your invaluable sharing through this blog. Lesson for me it's a reminder of the inherent risk in analyzing a business that is far away in more ways than one (GIC or no GIC). It is also a test of one's psychology, especially the observations into our initial and follow through reactions to the event.

Not so long ago I was also vested in cmz when you highlighted its potential. I investigate a bit and liked the story. After the 1st price drop, however, I began to realize how much I did not understand how to value it and had a gut feel that it could be a value trap (the paper loss at that time was a good wake up call). So when the price rebounded back to above $1, I closed all my cmz positions.

I guess its back to the basic for me after that episode but the lookout for new and potential investing ideas just need to continue. It's a journey for me (still is) and I am glad to be able to walk alongside (behind also) you as my guide, respectfully.

Externally, I see this as a means to an end; internally I see the impermanence of all things we cannot bring forward. So it's the process of how I react to the gains and losses, each time getting to know a bit more of myself, and the possibility to help someone else with my experiences, that really make the effort worthwhile.

I sincerely hope the encouragement from your fans convinces you to continue this valuable sharing.


Warm Regards,
ivan

AK71 said...

Hi jojo,

If the allegations by Glaucus are true, then, the problem with China Minzhong goes beyond numbers.

The main thrust of their thesis is that China Minzhong falsified material information regarding top customers and suppliers prior to its IPO. I wonder how, as retail investors, could we have been able to check on such matters.

The information was published in their prospectus at IPO. Do we check on every single customer and supplier they listed? It seems like a hefty job.

So, having GIC as a pre-IPO cornerstone investor set our minds at ease because we assumed that GIC would not be a party to any shenanigans. Anyway, this could have been a false assurance.

Therefore, to be safer, if it is a company which I am unable to understand fully on my own, I shall have to avoid. For sure, there are businesses which I find easier to understand than others.

With China Minzhong, I thought I understood their business. However, it could be that I have only understood a story that was told by a master story teller.

Thanks for the book recommendation. I will look it up later at home. :)

AK71 said...

Hi ivan,

I am happy to hear that you closed your long position. Your gut feel that it could be a value trap served you well. :)

Not so long ago, this topic was brought up in another blog post. How do we identify a value trap? This is not something I am good at doing, apparently.

Walking behind me? I think it is a good idea but not because I am a good guide but because if I were to drop into a longkang, you know to stop walking. ;p

Definitely, if we will all share openly with one another all that we know, we could be a powerful force indeed. Would it happen one day? Maybe. :)

A total loss in China Minzhong for me would wipe out all my trading gains for the year. 8 months worth of work. That is a fair bit of money. However, I should count my blessings. :)

bong sj said...

Hi AK,
I have been enjoying reading blog more than a year.
這世界,一樣米養百樣人。can't please everyone.
pls keep going, I think there is lots of reader like me.

good days always.

sj.bong

Solace said...

Hi Ak,

Let's put a closure on China Minzhong, we will move on from there.

STI has gone below 3000 briefly today, hit by worries about a possible U.S.-led military strike against the Syrian government.

Lets begin to look for fundamentally good companies where their prices are undervalued. They might have been oversold. I am feeling excited hahaha.

Let's share with each other on what we will find. I start 1st, i am looking at the decline of capital-land w interest. Haha



AK71 said...

Hi bong sj,

Indeed so. The diversity in the world is what makes it dynamic. ;)

It is hard for me to stop blogging but I might take a break. :)

bong sj said...

Hi AK,
I have been reading your blog more than two years.
have learnt a lot on investing. my thanks to you.
這世界,一樣米養百樣人, can't please everyone.
pls carry on yr blog, I am sure there is lots of reader like me.

keep up.... good days always .

sj.bong

AK71 said...

Hi Solace,

Haha.. Sounds good. ;)

I went out to dinner with a friend earlier and when I told him how much is my exposure to China Minzhong, his jaw dropped. He said I could have paid for a brand new Mazda2 in full and still have some money left over. Thanks for the reminder. LOL. :(

I have been doing quite a bit of thinking and I think I am going to look through my existing investments once more and not venture into new stocks. If I am sure that these are sound investments, I wouldn't have to look further. If the share prices should decline more, there would be greater margins of safety.

Now, I see greater attractiveness in Marco Polo Marine and Yongnams' stocks, for example. However, cheap could get cheaper. I shall wait for reversal signals. ;p

chrisyoong said...

I'm also vested in CMZ after agreeing with your analysis. I don't blame you as I've gone in with my eyes wide open and on my own accord.

AK71 said...

Hi Chris,

I don't know what to say to this...

I suppose we will just have to wait to see how things turn out. :(

JJ said...

Dear AK,

We love your blog, love to see you talking to yourself... all addicted liao....

Thanks again for sharing & 加油...... AK & friends !

AK71 said...

Hi JJ,

This incident could cure me of my ailment. Isn't that a good thing? Hahaha... Thanks for the encouragement. I appreciate it. :)

AK71 said...

Latest development

It seems that documents secured by Glaucus Research might not be bona fide and obtained using trickery.

For those who understand Chinese, please see if my reading is correct since my Chinese is often not very reliable:

http://www.chinaminzhong.com/newsinfo.asp?id=87

pokchow said...

If it's cheap, buy em!

FoodieFC said...

definitely not your fault, if anyone loses money. It can't be a case where by someone can make money from following your blog, and yet cannot forsee losing money.

Its akin to saying that if a food blogger say the food is good, then everyone will like the food. Right?

=)

AK71 said...

Hi FoodieFC,

I like the way you have put it. Seriously creative! I haven't heard anyone saying it the way you have before. Thank you. :)

NoviceFisherman said...

Hi AK,

I've been following your blog for the past 3+ years.

While I consider myself having a late start in investing (in my late 20s), it is through self study, reading blogs & reports, and learning from mistakes that allowed me to build up a "not too bad" portfolio for passive income today.

During this short investment journey of mine, I have found your blog to be one of the more educational & informative ones. It is so good/useful that I would sometimes check back on your blog before confirming some of my investments (just like consulting a mentor). And as Tostubi highlighted, your blog has a human touch to it, not only because it is light-hearted and entertaining, but more so because of the humble and unselfish personality of yours that one could sense from your writings.

While I had never written any comments on your blog before (or any other blogs for that matter), it is during times like this that you, AK, would readily offer your words of encouragement to other readers, and hence I feel it is only appropriate for me to "break my silence" and say "jia you!".

I would like to end by reiterating what you said, that is, we're actually all students of Mr. Market (though I would say its temperaments should qualify it as a Miss :P ) and I believe a good student should always remind himself that investing is a life long course one can never fully graduate from. Last but not least, I would like to conclude this long comment post by saying "Thank you", for giving me a rod and teaching me how to fish. Cheers!

sillyinvestor said...

Ak,

I have read the link you send,

It simply means: the bureau has been alerted by minzhong that there are some using its name to release info about minzhong, it states that all info on companies obtained legally through the bureau will have a offical stamp on it.

Sorry AK and those vested, my objective view is dun get your hopes too high on this.

1) SOurce is from MZ website, the bureau did not mentioned anything about not releasing any data on CMZ, on pinpointing any forgery on Glaucus part, it is like a motherhood statement pending a complaint from CMZ.
2) Supplementary evidence from Glaucus is obtained from the auditing company of CMZ not from the bureau, and the auditor report does has the auditing company stamp. Auditing documents need not come from the bureau
3) The application of foreign enterprise status which must indeed come from the bureau SAIC, does have the legal stamp on it.

Also, if such documents are of significant and glaucus fabricate it, what have management not make a stand?

Just my honest view, hope I am wrong.

AK71 said...

Hi Novice Fisherman,

I really like your nickname. :D

Thank you for taking the time and effort to write this very thoughtful comment. I appreciate it. :)

I guess every cloud has a silver lining and having you break your silence probably counts as one such lining. ;)

With regards to whether Mr. Market could be a female, I think I will politely refuse to comment since I think quite a significant number of readers are female. ;p

Finally, I didn't teach anyone anything and being the Scrooge that I am, it is highly unlikely that I would have given you a fishing rod. Very expensive things, fishing rods. -.-"

AK71 said...

Hi Mike,

Thank you so much for translating that document for me. You are effectively bilingual! You must guest blog for ASSI! ;)

Why sorry? You say it like it is. This is something I do too except that my Chinese isn't really up to scratch. So, help needed here. :)

sillyinvestor said...

Hihi Ak,

Thank you for your invite, if I find some interesting company that are not covered by others, I might send you a email, there are a few under my radar actually, but will like to dig deeper.

Not sure if they will fit your blog profile, one is a s-chip YZJ another indonesia property play sinarmas land. Hahaha, hope I dun chase away or spoilt your reputation if I do find time to write up one hehe

Anyway, I am not bilingual, I am Bilonglong, weak in both, just good enough to read and understand, you would notice the amount of grammar mistakes on my posts hahaha

Btw, CMZ has a update, but lack specifics,lets keep fingers crossed that there final rebuttal will be strong.

AK71 said...

Hi Mike,

I will reserve editorial powers. I also provide free proof reading. LOL. Don't worry. ;p

Hey, you could make better sense of that letter in Chinese than I could! Better than me lor.

Yup, I read the update from China Minzhong. Looking forward to their results presentation this evening as well as the official response tomorrow.

FoodieFC said...

Hi AK71,

its because I am a foodie. So everything I relate back to food. Hee.

AK71 said...

Hi FoodieFC,

Well, I think food bloggers are in a right niche in Singapore. Food bloggers probably are able to reach out to a much larger audience than financial bloggers can. Just a gut feeling. :)

Food blogging is probably less hazardous too. LOL. ;p

AK71 said...

2013 Full Year Results.

DPS: $0.01
(Total: S$6,554,339)

Achieved positive free cash flow with cash flow from operations improving 164.4%, year on year.

Net cash position.

Cash conversion days deteriorated from 76 to 93 days.

NAV/share: RMB 7.28
EPS: RMB 1.28

Profit margins reduced.

See:
Slides presentation.

I am definitely not a forensic research guy. I will leave it to the experts to say what is wrong with the numbers.

At my level, I can only say that it seems pretty good except for the number of cash conversion days and the reduced profit margins due to cost of sale and expenses increasing at a much faster rate.

Will wait for the official response to Glaucus Research which should be soon since the trading halt will end tomorrow at 5pm.

AK71 said...

For those who understand Chinese, this could be interesting:

http://www.ptfish.com/thread-748697-1-1.html

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