When to buy SPH's stock?

A reader who attended InvestX Congress wrote to say he enjoyed my presentation at the event and that he was especially enlightened as to why I thought SPH made a better investment for income compared to SPH REIT which led to me plonking down more money in SPH's stock. He then went on to ask if this is a good time to buy more of SPH's stock.

Yikes! I am very afraid of questions like this, regular readers of my blog would know.

So, I asked him what did he think the fair value of SPH's stock was? If he were a value investor, he would want to buy it undervalued. Of course, I reminded him that valuation is a subjective exercise and depending on what he focused on, he could come up with different fair values.

Personally, I feel that the fair value is about $4.20 a share, give or take a few bids. So, I do what I sometimes do and which I did not talk about during InvestX Congress. It wasn't something I was supposed to talk about at the event.

What did I do?

I looked at the charts.

Click to enlarge.

I see lower highs on the MACD, a momentum oscillator, as higher highs in the share price were reached at $4.17, $4.26 and $4.27. This is a negative divergence. This is an indicator that weakness is on the horizon.

Immediate support is currently provided by the flattening 200 days moving average (200dMA) at $4.14. Is this support going to be tested next week? Possibly.

Bearing in mind that the 200dMA is a long term moving average, if support at $4.14 should be breached, we could see SPH's share price moving much lower. How much lower? That is hard to say but we can use Fibo retracement lines to get a glimpse of where the supports are likely to be.

Click to enlarge.

Share price could retrace to $4.10 (the 50% golden ratio) or $4.055 (the 38.2% golden ratio). The support provided by the 23.6% Fibo line is a weak one at $4.00. So, if share price should go that low, we are likely to see $4.00 support breached.

So, given the technical analysis I did, if I didn't yet have a long position in SPH, I might wait to get some at immediate support which might be moved higher to $4.15 since the 61.8% golden ratio is at $4.145.

If I already had a long position in SPH (which I do), I will wait to accumulate on weakness which, given the negative divergence observed in recent weeks, looks likely to happen.

Related post:
SPH: Within expectation.

We can help to lessen the pain.

On 25 May, I put up my complimentary ticket to InvestX Congress 2014 for auction, promising that the proceeds would go to a charity of my choice. Within 2 days, I closed the auction after receiving the top bid of $99 which was equivalent to the regular price of the ticket.

Now, here is the proof that I have made a donation with the money received:

When a reader asked me on FB which charity would I be making a donation to and whether it would be to NKF, I told him I would be making a donation to KDF. It was the first time he heard of KDF despite the fact that it was set up in 1996.

KDF is a not-for-profit and independent charity to help needy kidney patients who lack funds for dialysis and also to find a cure for kidney diseases. They work together with NUS in their search for a cure for diabetes. I like the vision of a world where people no longer have to suffer from diabetes.

Learn more about KDF: www.kdf.org.sg

There are people who are forced to sell their cars and valuables due to financial hardship. There are people who suffer financial hardship but have nothing valuable to sell. For these people, if financial hardship is due to health reasons which prevent them from being gainfully employed, we should offer a helping hand, if possible.

Related posts:
1. InvestX Congress: AK's ticket is up for grabs.
2. Forced selling due to financial hardship.
3. Counting our blessings.
4. Towards better mental health.
5. Voluntary contributions to CPF.

Want to win $14,000 to $19,200 a year?

I know someone who would bet $300 to $400 every week on 4D and Toto. It is simply mind-boggling to me.

When I found out, I suggested that he should save the money every week instead.




To me, it is a no-brainer. 

I explained to him that, in a month, he would save $1,200 to $1,600 and in a year, he would save $14,400 to $19,200!

That is quite a lot of money.

His reply to me,

"Hey, what if I gave up and one of the 4D or Toto combinations I always buy appear as first prize har? You compensate me har?"

I was speechless! 




I mean if he had listened to me, I would have gone on to explain the next step of how he could invest that $14,400 to $19,200 a year for a dividend income of $720 to $960 a year which although not a lot is nice to have.

Then, imagine doing it year after year!

Gambling is like a drug.

This person is so hung up on the possibility of striking it rich and he has been doing this for so long that he is unable to quit for fear that all his previous "investment" would go to waste.




Chances of winning first prize in 4D is 1 in 10,000. 

Chances of winning first prize in Toto is 1 in 8,145,060!

How are the odds more attractive compared to a sure win of $14,000 to $19,200 per year?

Of course, let us not forget the possibility of a dividend income if the money was invested.

Well, he must think I am mental. Many patients in Buangkok Green share his view, I am sure.




"rationalizing foolish conduct, based on your subconscious tendency to serve yourself, is a terrible way to think." 
- Charlie Munger.

Update: 27 July 16

Matthew Seah:

TOTO now got more numbers to choose from..

Click to enlarge and be stunned like vegetable!

Related post:
Investing in stocks makes you a gambler.

Forced selling due to financial hardship.

Vin Diesel, Michelle Rodrigeuz and Gina Carano amazed by the crazy car prices in Singapore!
"Is the moral of the story don't buy cars in Singapore?"

UPDATE (December 2016):
Someone was telling me how it is really tough to make ends meet in Singapore. He was rattling off what sounded like a well rehearsed list but when he said "petrol prices went up", I went:

"You are having trouble making ends meet and you have a car?"

I guess I might have sounded a bit rude. It wasn't by intention. Really. He gave me a dirty look... Anyway...
-----------------------
In recent months, I felt an air of caution and some might even say pessimism in the economy. 

Maybe, it is just me but my observations tell me that maybe the economy is not humming along so nicely.

Are hard times around the corner?

What can we learn from this recent ad to sell a BMW car?

Being financially prudent will help us to become more secure financially. Then, we wouldn't have to fear hard times (as much). 

Although we would not wish for it to happen, hard times could descend upon us quite suddenly. When it does happen, we want it to be good for us.

Be prudent with our expenses and, very importantly, don't fund our consumption with debt.

“When you combine ignorance and leverage, you get some pretty interesting results.” Warren Buffett.

Related posts:
1. Come out on top of a recession (Part 1)
2. Come out on top of a recession (Part 2)
3. A car loan is different from a home loan.
4. From rich to broke?
5. Wage slaves should be fearful.
6. The evil instalment schemes and their minions.

Accordia Golf Trust: 6.8% to 7% distribution yield.

A new business trust is set to list in Singapore and it owns golf courses in Japan. The IPO is expected to price the units between 97c to $1.00 each and distribution yield is going to be between 6.8% to 7%.

I have not looked at the prospectus but I tried to understand how the manager is compensated. It is frankly quite complicated to me. It isn't as straightforward as a trust involving real estate. See if you understand it: Golf Course Management Agreement (page 3).

I also looked at some published figures and I am not sure that the assets are doing very well:



Click to enlarge.

I would draw attention to "net income per share" and "dividend per share". Interesting, isn't it?

See: financial highlights.

Could Accordia Golf Trust see a meteoric rise in unit price like Croesus Retail Trust did during its IPO? Your guess is as good as mine. However, I know that I will be giving the IPO a miss.

Read article:
Accordia Golf Trust to list on SGX.

Related post:
High yielding business trusts: A discussion.

Think we can't save $400,000?

Over the weekend, a friend told me that he found it very hard to believe that a 74 year old cleaner lady could have saved $400,000 in the last 60 years. Well, I don't find it hard to believe and I told him so. 60 years is a long time. It is all about working hard, being frugal and religiously saving the difference, in my opinion.

"For 60 years, Madam Goh Kah Keow, 74, lived a frugal life and managed to save more than $400,000 in cash and jewellery." The New Paper.

Anyway, a quick lunch time blog post:

Been a long time since I had a bowl! $1.10 only!

After waiting for a few minutes. Mouth watering!



My lunch! Sedap!

Burp!
I used to drink this all up in my younger days. Now, I throw it away.

Some people in the past wondered how I could build up my savings so quickly too sometimes.

Related posts:
1. An essential habit to becoming richer.
2. Don't see money, won't spend money.
3. Seven money habits of AK71's.
"I am always attracted to posts that talk about money-saving techniques because successful saving provides a guaranteed return as opposed to investing which is risky by nature." HYOM, 7 Oct 2012.

Journey to financial freedom needs preparation.

Often, I get emails from readers asking for advice and I would remind them that I am not allowed to give advice. I am just thinking aloud here in my blog and if my soliloquies have proven inspiring or even helpful, I guess that is a good thing.

A recurring theme in a number of emails from readers is whether having a smallish capital is good enough to start investing in stocks. So, over the last few years of blogging, I have thought aloud to myself as I looked at bits and pieces of the puzzle and more recently consolidated some of these thoughts into an "e-book" which is found in the right side bar of my blog.

I believe that getting our basics right first is more important in helping ourselves to be financially secure than investing in stocks. Of course, investing has an important part in the grand scheme of things on the journey to financial freedom but the basics will ensure a strong foundation. All in good time, as the saying goes.

To help put this point across, I had a blog post which generated quite a bit of controversy last year when it was published. I believe that the blog post's message was misconstrued by some when I questioned whether investing in stocks was suitable for everybody. For anyone who might be interested to read it or to read it again, please pay special attention to the concluding paragraph of the blog post: Is investing in stocks suitable for you?


My reply to J who wrote to me recently:

Hi J,

Welcome to my blog. :)

Firstly, I have to tell you that I am not allowed to give financial advice. I can share some knowledge and experience but you will have to decide what to do from there.

Before you start, you might want to go to my blog's right sidebar and read my "e-book" which should help lay some groundwork for you. If we do not have a large capital to invest with, just getting the basics right to give us financial security without investing in stocks would be a big step forward.

Once we have gotten the basics right, we could think of putting excess cash to work.

Not all of us are good with financial numbers. So, not all of us are good at picking stocks. Warren Buffett who is probably the most successful investor of all time makes mistakes too. So, if we don't think we are strong in this department, we might want to do some index investing. OCBC and POSB have plans to help people do this. Go to my blog and use the "search" box at the top of the blog and search for "blue chip investing". Read the related posts and comments too.

Of course, we could read up to upgrade our knowledge and skills. When we feel that we are comfortable enough to invest in individual stocks, we might want to give it a go. To this end, there are good books which could help us better ourselves. "Food for thought" in my blog's right sidebar has some recommended books.

 .... don't be discouraged. All of us have to start somewhere. :)

Best wishes,
AK

In the email to me, J said, "I would appreciate if you can give me some advice so I can finally start my journey." I am sure all of us here want to journey towards financial freedom. 

However, we must remember that before every journey, there should be adequate preparation. Embarking on a journey without adequate preparation would be to leave too much to chance.

When we are well prepared, we will be able to embark on the journey with more confidence as we will be in a better position to handle any unforeseen circumstances along the way.

Related posts:
1. Free e-book by AK.
2. The Millionaire Next Door.
3. Take steps towards financial security.
4. Journey to financial freedom is not a race.
5. When to BUY, HOLD or SELL?