tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7944902213075756335.post164060068439691852..comments2024-03-29T10:22:24.187+08:00Comments on A Singaporean Stocks Investor (ASSI): Courage Marine: BDI plunging.AK71http://www.blogger.com/profile/16832145412062954289noreply@blogger.comBlogger24125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7944902213075756335.post-63840107424972956232012-01-25T19:28:00.978+08:002012-01-25T19:28:00.978+08:00Hi Ray,
Well, you know that I would sell on rebou...Hi Ray,<br /><br />Well, you know that I would sell on rebounds and not when prices are forming new lows. The bleak picture that is the business of dry bulk carriers in 2012 and possibly 2013 means that the prudent thing to do is to reduce exposure. ;)AK71https://www.blogger.com/profile/16832145412062954289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7944902213075756335.post-34183635562167584492012-01-25T18:22:33.722+08:002012-01-25T18:22:33.722+08:00Hi AK,
Seems like CM is moving back up. congrats....Hi AK,<br /><br />Seems like CM is moving back up. congrats.<br />Any changes to your view about its value?Rayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16883833861386039879noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7944902213075756335.post-53029932564074559922012-01-21T09:29:02.676+08:002012-01-21T09:29:02.676+08:00Hi Jason,
All points noted. Thanks so much for sh...Hi Jason,<br /><br />All points noted. Thanks so much for sharing the numbers. I really appreciate it. :)<br /><br />It seems like 2012 is going to be a most difficult year. I am curious as to how Courage Marine's management will navigate these treacherous waters.<br /><br />In the meantime, Gong Xi Fa Cai! :)AK71https://www.blogger.com/profile/16832145412062954289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7944902213075756335.post-17356174329465726322012-01-21T00:33:25.796+08:002012-01-21T00:33:25.796+08:00Elderly tonnage represents about 20-22% of total s...Elderly tonnage represents about 20-22% of total ships - roughly about 120m dwt vs total 600m dwt (estimated from the top of my head)<br />However, majority of these small ships of the 120m oldies are deployed on coastal business (china, india,indonesia) so not likely to be scrapped. Overcapacity of vessels vs cargo demand is so wide we need to scrap at least nearly 20% of the current world fleetjasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01520000867803681070noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7944902213075756335.post-56246186231141183052012-01-20T09:48:01.560+08:002012-01-20T09:48:01.560+08:00Hi Jason,
Thanks for sharing the details. :)
Scr...Hi Jason,<br /><br />Thanks for sharing the details. :)<br /><br />Scrapping older ships would ameliorate overcapacity. It would be interesting to know what is the proportion of "elderly" ships as compared to total capacity in the industry. Hmmm...AK71https://www.blogger.com/profile/16832145412062954289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7944902213075756335.post-86123027074722229322012-01-19T21:37:35.853+08:002012-01-19T21:37:35.853+08:00Scrapping in 2011 was record highest ever - due to...Scrapping in 2011 was record highest ever - due to poor markets and attractive scrap prices. Unfortunately, scrap metal prices are on the decline following the drop in steel/steel prodt prices. Likely there will be more ships on sale for further trading if the scrap prices cant match 2nd hand markets. That so, over-capacity will remain a huge problem. Scrapping is now of course the last ditch jasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01520000867803681070noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7944902213075756335.post-37896603208035586212012-01-18T20:09:27.702+08:002012-01-18T20:09:27.702+08:00Hi Jason,
I am taking note of all you are saying....Hi Jason,<br /><br />I am taking note of all you are saying. You are, after all, an industry insider. :)<br /><br />Do you think ship owners might scrap older ships to reduce excess capacity?AK71https://www.blogger.com/profile/16832145412062954289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7944902213075756335.post-26071244289692800652012-01-18T19:36:30.363+08:002012-01-18T19:36:30.363+08:00Dry bulk market - u have seen BDI falling below cr...Dry bulk market - u have seen BDI falling below crucial 1,000 mark. THis is just the beginning of events to come. Even if China were to stay intact on 9-9.5% GDP, there is still not enough cargo to go around ALL the ships (>7500 vessels and over 600m dwt including new builds) Worse is when Brazil's Vale new fleet of 4m dwt (10 ships of 400k dwt each) comes into play in 2012. This combined jasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01520000867803681070noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7944902213075756335.post-89444498847088765642012-01-18T15:15:39.963+08:002012-01-18T15:15:39.963+08:00Hi Nick,
If I remember correctly, Courage Marine&...Hi Nick,<br /><br />If I remember correctly, Courage Marine's management has secured long term charters which account for more than a third of their business now. <br /><br />Anyway, long term charters are also not set in stone. I read somewhere about charterers refusing to pay recently. Was it Cosco related? My memory is failing.AK71https://www.blogger.com/profile/16832145412062954289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7944902213075756335.post-10363308692143753782012-01-18T15:03:47.916+08:002012-01-18T15:03:47.916+08:00Hi Nick,
Yes, I remember you were quite positive ...Hi Nick,<br /><br />Yes, I remember you were quite positive on Golden Ocean's business before. This was some time back, of course.<br /><br />As for Courage Marine, it scrapped 4 vessels and bought 2 new vessels in the last few months, iirc. It will take a 60% bank loan for the 2 new vessels and pay cash for the balance.<br /><br />There will be consolidation in the shipping industry, for AK71https://www.blogger.com/profile/16832145412062954289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7944902213075756335.post-70376109365346063382012-01-18T14:39:24.318+08:002012-01-18T14:39:24.318+08:00Hi MW,
CM is a dry bulk spot charter market playe...Hi MW,<br /><br />CM is a dry bulk spot charter market player. It is the epitome of cyclical business ! Where the Baltic Index goes, it will follow.<br /><br />Nick<br /><br />(Not Vested)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7944902213075756335.post-85898157715515151562012-01-18T14:38:02.740+08:002012-01-18T14:38:02.740+08:00Hi AK,
Will they still be net cash when the 2 new...Hi AK,<br /><br />Will they still be net cash when the 2 new-building vessels are delivered ? The dry bulk industry is extremely sickly now but it should recover once the over-supply of vessels is absorbed - when no one knows ! If CM is still alive when it occurs, then it should recover its earnings and equity. Meanwhile, it will be a bumpy ride. Its larger peer - Golden Ocean - halted dividend Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7944902213075756335.post-35051368754791731662012-01-18T13:26:13.276+08:002012-01-18T13:26:13.276+08:00Hi JTK,
Yes, I am not doing anything right now. J...Hi JTK,<br /><br />Yes, I am not doing anything right now. Just waiting for the next results presentation.<br /><br />Courage Marine decided to concentrate on the energy needs of China early on. So, they ship mainly coal. I do not expect Chinese demand for coal to decline.<br /><br />There has been much talk about new ships adding to the capacity of dry bulkers in 2012 to the tune of 4+%. HoweverAK71https://www.blogger.com/profile/16832145412062954289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7944902213075756335.post-7629022581401353732012-01-18T13:03:20.692+08:002012-01-18T13:03:20.692+08:00Hi AK,
Thank you for your comments.
"Overhan...Hi AK,<br /><br />Thank you for your comments.<br />"Overhang" means debt overhang from some of european countries.<br />If China does not go into recession, I think there is a good chance for Courage Marine to recover from losses.<br />Maybe we just wait until 2011 results before doing anything.<br />What do you think the good entry price to average down?JTKhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09794661484725960597noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7944902213075756335.post-27422305885360939652012-01-18T12:05:50.020+08:002012-01-18T12:05:50.020+08:00Hi MW,
Very happy to hear from you on this. Your ...Hi MW,<br /><br />Very happy to hear from you on this. Your FA is always highly valued. :)<br /><br />Yes, in my reply to Drizzt's first comment, I also said that its Balance Sheet might be strong but its Income Statement could be something else.<br /><br />Courage Marine's business is definitely cyclical in nature and I expect its Cash Flow from Operations to be affected negatively givenAK71https://www.blogger.com/profile/16832145412062954289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7944902213075756335.post-76448738040296806232012-01-18T11:22:47.113+08:002012-01-18T11:22:47.113+08:00Hi AK71,
The CFS may be a better guide as to how ...Hi AK71,<br /><br />The CFS may be a better guide as to how the Company is doing. While I agree the Balance Sheet looks clean as at Sep 30, 2011, do note that this is rather industry-specific and Balance Sheets are simply snapshots of a particular point in time. Therefore, one should also rely on "flow" statements such as the Income STatement and Cash Flow Statement.<br /><br />9M 2011 Musicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7944902213075756335.post-54698905823997347272012-01-18T09:44:21.066+08:002012-01-18T09:44:21.066+08:00Hi Drizzt,
At its simplest, a net cash position.Hi Drizzt,<br /><br />At its simplest, a net cash position.AK71https://www.blogger.com/profile/16832145412062954289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7944902213075756335.post-22387030094140628552012-01-18T09:43:19.456+08:002012-01-18T09:43:19.456+08:00Hi JTK,
I do not know what you mean by "over...Hi JTK,<br /><br />I do not know what you mean by "overhang from Europe". However, if you are referring to the current debt crisis in Europe and how it would unravel, I must say I have no idea although my recent blog post which highlighted Mr. Lee Kuan Yew's view on the matter is of some concern.<br /><br />Regarding China, I do not think it would go into a recession. In the last AK71https://www.blogger.com/profile/16832145412062954289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7944902213075756335.post-66369797860706869782012-01-18T04:48:13.892+08:002012-01-18T04:48:13.892+08:00AK,what to you is a strong balance sheet?AK,what to you is a strong balance sheet?Kyithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07617228143744544821noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7944902213075756335.post-13710153503800320892012-01-17T22:57:16.799+08:002012-01-17T22:57:16.799+08:00Hi AK,
Thanks for sharing.
Is it high time to cut...Hi AK,<br />Thanks for sharing.<br /><br />Is it high time to cut loss on Courage Marine as the global economy outlook may not be so good for the next 2 years due to the overhang from Europe? And China may go for Soft/Hard landing. But if China economy is still good, then the shipping stock may probably be held on.<br /><br />What is your view on these.JTKhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09794661484725960597noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7944902213075756335.post-50596290507431137232012-01-17T21:41:51.311+08:002012-01-17T21:41:51.311+08:00Hi Jason,
The article in The Business Times repor...Hi Jason,<br /><br />The article in The Business Times reported that 2012 will see another 4% increase in capacity. So, I agree with you that testing times are ahead. <br /><br />Courage Marine's management has already issued profit warning and they will probably be sorely tested this year.AK71https://www.blogger.com/profile/16832145412062954289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7944902213075756335.post-43274307751471916992012-01-17T21:37:59.347+08:002012-01-17T21:37:59.347+08:00Hey AK, beware as ship owners are running very sho...Hey AK, beware as ship owners are running very short of cargos for their ships. Another 100m dwt is expected to come onboard in 2012 (think of it as another 600 over 150,000 dwt capesizes)....this will wear and tear any balance sheet so pls keep an eye on the quarter earnings.Many bankruptcies are on the books.jasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01520000867803681070noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7944902213075756335.post-60172453735820719672012-01-17T21:28:12.329+08:002012-01-17T21:28:12.329+08:00Hi Drizzt,
Balance sheet is strong at the current...Hi Drizzt,<br /><br />Balance sheet is strong at the current point in time. Of course, "strong" could mean different things to different people. <br /><br />In terms of revenue and the bottom line, it is challenging and likely to remain so in the near future.<br /><br />So, it has a strong balance sheet but its income statement might be something else.AK71https://www.blogger.com/profile/16832145412062954289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7944902213075756335.post-56393308549541428572012-01-17T20:45:07.995+08:002012-01-17T20:45:07.995+08:00do u think their bs is strong? because they seem t...do u think their bs is strong? because they seem to be taking losses and rapidly depleting their poolKyithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07617228143744544821noreply@blogger.com