Sheng Siong: A good investment for income?

Last year in August, Sheng Siong's IPO created a bit of a buzz. The company promised a pay out ratio of 90% in FY 2011 and FY 2012 to woo investors and offered shares to the public at 33c a piece. It was 1.3x oversubscribed.

For FY2011, net profit fell 36.1% while revenue fell 8%. Net profit margin declined to 4.7% in FY2011 from 6.8% in FY2010. This is although gross profit margin improved somewhat to 22.1% compared to 21.8% in the previous year. Frankly, I find its net profit margin to be rather unattractive and it actually looks worse than some local construction companies'.

However, delivering on its promise of a 90% pay out ratio, the company has proposed a dividend of 1.77c per share for FY2011. At its last traded price of 48c a share, it translates to a dividend yield of about 3.69%. For those who got their shares at IPO, they would have a dividend yield of 5.36% on cost.

Many invested in Sheng Siong thinking of its business as recession proof and that it is a defensive stock to own. However, its numbers suggest that it does not have much of an economic moat and is not really defensive per se. In fact, the leaner margins have been attributed to keen competition from rival supermarket chains.

Debt free and with more cash on hand, let us see if the company would be able to deliver more value to shareholders in the new financial year. However, for any would be investor, it pays to note that after FY2012, there is no guarantee that Sheng Siong would continue with its 90% pay out ratio.

If the payout ratio were to be reduced to 50% or even 30%, what would the dividend per share amount to then? Would its earnings per share grow fast enough to compensate for the lower pay out ratio in order to continue delivering a similar quantum of dividend per share?

Sheng Siong might be a good place for grocery shopping but is it a good investment for income?

The jury is still out on this one.

See slides presentation: here.
See results announcement: here.

Sheng Siong's IPO and the American debt ceiling.

I received two emails today from readers. The first asked me about Sheng Siong's IPO and the second commented on how the Americans have come to a compromise on raising the debt ceiling.

To the first reader, I said that it has been a long time since I took part in any IPO, believing that they do not offer good deals for investors most of the time. I rather wait and see if I could get the shares when they provide better value for money.

Many believe Sheng Siong's business to be recession proof and that is probably correct. However, the business might be recession proof but the share price could be less so.

The business could be quite robust but negative sentiments in the broader market could drive prices down all the same during hard times. Mr. Market is given to extreme emotions, after all. I would buy if the shares become undervalued.

To the second reader, I said that I would not be too sure about the Americans raising their debt ceiling successfully until President Obama signs on the dotted line. After all, remember how "rebels" within the Republican ranks were unhappy with the compromises made?

Now, how will the Democrats react to some concessions made by President Obama to the Republicans? Apparently, he gave in and agreed not to increase taxes on the rich.

Of course, I am playing the Devil's advocate here but, like I always say, never say never. We can only hope for the best.

Read article here.