The email address in "Contact AK: Ads and more" above will vanish from November 2018.

PRIVACY POLICY

FAKE ASSI AK71 IN HWZ.

Featured blog.

1M50 CPF millionaire in 2021!

Ever since the CPFB introduced a colorful pie chart of our CPF savings a few years ago, I would look forward to mine every year like a teena...

Past blog posts now load week by week. The old style created a problem for some as the system would load 50 blog posts each time. Hope the new style is better. Search archives in box below.

Archives

"E-book" by AK

Second "e-book".

Another free "e-book".

4th free "e-book".

Pageviews since Dec'09

Financially free and Facebook free!

Recent Comments

ASSI's Guest bloggers

Showing posts with label Suntec REIT. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Suntec REIT. Show all posts

SPH: Better investment than retail S-REITs?

Tuesday, June 19, 2012

SPH is still my largest investment in a Singapore blue chip and it is an important part of my high yield portfolio. CIMB now suggests that investing in SPH is better than investing in retail S-REITs. It would be a happy coincidence for me if CIMB should be right as my only exposure to retail S-REITs is a small long position in Suntec REIT, much smaller than my investment in SPH.



Singapore Press Holdings is becoming increasingly like a retail real estate investment trust (REIT), CIMB Research said, noting its growing retail property arm and stable media business, as well as typical payouts of more than 90%...


The broker also said SPH is a cheaper alternative for investors seeking exposure to retail Singapore REITS after the stock’s underperformance, offering yields of 6.4% versus an average of 6.1% for retail Singapore REITs...


CIMB said revenue compound annual growth rate for SPH’s “gem asset”, Paragon shopping mall in Singapore, stood at 8.3% over 2006-2011, outstripping growth for comparable assets under retail Singapore REITs.


Related post:
SPH: Interim dividend of 7c per share.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and Sabana REIT: Performance fees.

Sunday, June 17, 2012

This issue of The EDGE has a very interesting article by Goola Warden on S-REITs. In a nutshell, it looks at potential conflicts of interest between their external managers and unitholders. To this end, it looks at the layers of fees charged by the managers.

As investors, we want to make sure that the REIT managers are fairly rewarded since no one would work for free. However, we have to safeguard our interests too especially when there is a lack of uniformity in the way the fees are calculated.

On the issue of performance fee, CLSA says that AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and Sabana REIT are amongst S-REITs with the most equitable performance fee structures. The managers are only paid performance fees upon satisfying certain conditions.


The manager of AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT gets paid 0.1% of the deposited property value if distribution per unit (DPU) growth exceeds 2.5% per annum. The manager gets paid 0.2% of the deposited property value if DPU growth exceeds 5% per annum.

The manager of Sabana REIT gets paid 0.5% of the net property income (NPI) if the REIT achieves DPU growth of 10% per annum for unitholders.

So, if unitholders get a meaningfully higher DPU, the managers are rewarded with a performance fee. I doubt if anyone would quarrel with this. It appeals to my sense of fair play.

Between the two REITs, however, I believe that Sabana REIT's performance fee structure is fairer. Rewarding the manager with a percentage of the NPI makes sense because a higher DPU is probably due to a higher NPI. 

So, having the REIT manager rewarded a percentage of the NPI makes more sense to me than rewarding them with a percentage of the deposited property value.

Nonetheless, AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT's conditional performance fee is still better than those of REITs like Suntec REIT which pays 4.5% of the REIT's NPI as performance fee to its manager regardless of performance. 

Er... Am I missing something here?

Seems like there is more reason to like Sabana REIT now apart from its very high distribution yield. ;)

Reference:
"Growth versus value.", Goola Warden, The EDGE, pages 22 to 24, 18 June 2012.

Related posts:
1. Sabana REIT: 1Q 2012 DPU 2.26c.
2. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 4Q FY2011.

Suntec REIT: Q1 2012 DPU 2.453c.

Tuesday, April 24, 2012


I still retain a small position in Suntec REIT at a cost price of about S$1.00 a unit which I purchased towards the tail end of the last financial crisis. This small position is free of cost, actually, since the gain from selling most of my investment in the REIT more than covers its cost. For me, this is what some would call a pillow stock. Sleep on it and get free money.

Gearing: 37.4%

Interest cover ratio: 4.2x

Credit rating: Baa2

NAV/unit: $1.962

DPU: 2.453c (XD 30 April. Payable on 29 May.)

Would I add to my long position or would I sell? I would not be doing either. The REIT's unit price at $1.285 is not expensive but neither is it cheap. So, I am keeping the status quo.

Although the office market remained subdued in the first quarter of 2012, the trust said its overall committed occupancy for the office portfolio enjoyed a strong occupancy of 99.4 per cent as at 31 March 2012.

Committed occupancy for the retail portfolio stood at 97.3 per cent as at 31 March 2012.

The trust is starting asset enhancement works at Suntec City, which is expected to complete by the second quarter of 2013.

Several established brands have signed up for retail space in the newly refurbished Suntec City Mall, including Swedish clothing giant H&M, which will take up 20,000 square feet.

Another major international fashion retailer has also committed approximately 22,000 sq ft with the mall.

In the coming year, the trust said it will focus on the smooth execution of its refurbishment works for Suntec City Mall as well as maintain a high occupancy level for the rest of the mall.


Source: CNA, 24 April 2012.

See slides presentation: here.

High Yield Portfolio - Update.

Sunday, March 6, 2011

Sometimes, we just stumble upon a good thing. One of my inaugural blog posts when I started ASSI on Christmas Eve 2009 remains the most popular blog post today. I am talking about "High Yield Portfolio".

In October last year, a reader asked if I would do an update on the portfolio and I did. However, it was a "Reply from AK71" kind of thing and were mostly one-liners. See it here.

Have I deviated much from the first time I introduced this portfolio for investors who are more interested in investing for income? Not much. I am still invested in all six counters although the weight of each counter in the portfolio could have changed somewhat.

My largest investment is based on rather contrarian ideas and has attracted some skepticism, putting it mildly. I started investing in Saizen REIT at 13c a unit and I kept loading up.  Even at 16.5c a unit, I bought some. For sure, this is an under-performer in terms of capital appreciation. However, I invested in this with a view that it is grossly undervalued and that things could not get any worse. So, if we take care of the downside, the upside should take care of itself. The annualised DPU of about 1c is much lower than my estimates from a year ago and, at first glance, seems unattractive. I did not take into account the amortising nature of its new loans then. However, when we realise that the DPU could actually be 50% higher if not for the amortising nature of its loans (unlike all the CMBS before), it is immediately apparent how strong this REIT's cashflow from operations actually is. See: 2Q FY2011 results.

My second largest investment is also rather controversial: AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT. Reading some other blogs as well as comments left in my blog, I realise how there is still deep seated mistrust of its management. This is despite the fact that it is quite a different animal from its MI-REIT days. It is financially stronger and it has two strong sponsors. It has all its financial requirements well looked after and even managed to refinance its loans at a lower interest rate. Some people say that they were the early investors in the REIT during its MI-REIT days and that they would never recover their money. It might surprise them to know that I was also an early investor but when the REIT was recapitalised, I looked at the numbers and decided that at 20.5c, it was a safe investment promising an almost 10% distribution yield. I increased my investment in the company by some 5x right away and I have recovered all my losses and more since, especially with the rights purchased at 15.5c/unit in September last year. See: Rights issue. Would I buy more now? At 20.5c and with an estimated DPU of 2c for a distribution yield of 9.76%, why not? See: Acquisition of Northtech.

My third largest investment is now in First REIT after its recent rights issue. A blog post of mine says that this one is for keeps and I still believe it is so. See: This one is for keeps. Actually, it is more so now after the rights issue and acquisitions. An expected DPU of 6.4c and the current price of 74c, it will deliver a distribution yield of 8.65%. With gearing low at 15% or so, it has more headroom to gear up for future acquisitions which could bump up DPU. See: FY2010 results.

My fourth largest investment is in LMIR. The investment was premised on a robust Indonesian economy with 60% of its GDP from domestic consumption. However, I do not like the idea of the management losing lots of money in foreign exchange forward contracts. See: Foreign exchange forward contracts. I do, however, recognise that this is a stable passive income generator and exchange rates (Rupiah/S$) should be quite stable from here. DPU for FY2010: 4.44c and at a unit price of 54c, that's a distribution yield of 8.22%.

My fifth largest investment is in SPH. No need to say much here. SPH is one of the highest yielding blue chips I know of. Although it is synonymous with The Straits Times and other publications, it is really its exposure to real estate that I really like. I especially like the fact that it owns and manages The Paragon on Orchard Road. I also like that fact that it is a co-owner of the soon to be completed Clementi Mall. Would I buy more now? The yield is still about 6.5% even at recently traded prices. I might buy more if price were to weaken further. See: Final dividend.

My smallest investment in this High Yield Portfolio is in Suntec REIT. This REIT was something I went in big at about $1.00/unit, give or take few cents, with a view that it would be a beneficiary of the expected improvement in tourist arrival numbers and improving office rentals. Technically, it was also looking good then. I think it is quite boring now with price at $1.50/unit or so. I have divested most of my investment in this REIT and still retain a small investment. Expected DPU for 2011: 9.7c. See: Buy calls.

Do I have any counters I would consider adding to this High Yield Portfolio? Yes, there is one: Cache Logistics Trust. I have blogged about it regularly and did so recently again. Read it here. I could replace Suntec REIT with Cache Logistics Trust if the conditions were right.

Suntec REIT: Broke resistance.

Wednesday, January 26, 2011

I was just having a chat with Nick in LP's cbox not so long ago regarding REITs and their fair values. Nick mentioned that REITs with high gearing have little growth prospects and therefore will not see their unit price go up (i.e. yield will not compress). I think he mentioned that the stock market is rather efficient when it comes to REITs.

In theory, I agree with Nick. However, I mentioned that it is hard to be sure since how much a REIT should trade at is very often a matter of sentiments, this is the same with stocks. Certain REITs are small and are not covered by analysts. They could also be too small to interest institutional investors. Their unit prices could continue to languish even if they provide decent yields with relatively safe gearing. Certain REITs are obviously overvalued and give very low yields with relatively high gearing but they continue to enjoy much attention. For example, I would not bother buying into CMT. The yield is so unattractive.

Nick used Suntec REIT as an example of a REIT with high gearing and therefore it did not see its yield compress much. However, the last session saw Suntec REIT's unit price close at a high of $1.61, forming a wickless white candle, on the back of heavy volume. Yield is compressing and quite significantly too. The last time this REIT was at $1.61 was in Jun 2008!


Could we see this REIT's unit price move higher? A wickless white candle coupled with heavy volume is bullish. So, expectation is for price to move higher. However, the MFI is nearing overbought territory. In case of a pull back, it would be interesting to see if $1.58 could be resistance turned support.

Mr. Market is always right and he enjoys his hat tricks.

$50k in annual passive income: Year end status.

Sunday, November 28, 2010

The last time I wrote about my attempt to achieve an annual passive income of at least $50k was on 5 Sep when I concluded that "With Saizen REIT's contribution, I would probably exceed the target I have set for myself which is "to create a minimum of $50k in annual passive income from investments in the stock market alone."  I shared this aim here in my blog on 27 Feb 2010, more than half a year ago. Like with everything, however, this needs confirmation. Let us see what happens in December 2010." Read blog post here.

For quite some time now, my focus has been on my top three investments when I talk about building a reliable stream of passive income from the stock market.  They are Saizen REIT, AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and LMIR.

One of my friends told me that this is inaccurate since I do not include dividends received from my other investments in the stock market such as First REIT, Suntec REIT and SPH. I must admit that I have not been fastidious that way. However, my investments in other counters are so dwarfed by my top three investments that, for the sake of simplicity, I have excluded them. Also, funds from the complete divestment of CitySpring Infrastructure Trust and Cambridge Industrial Trust as well as the privatisation of Hyflux Water Trust have largely been redeployed to AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and Saizen REIT.

So, for this blog post, again, I will just focus on my top three investments to see if I have managed to hit the said target. I don't think we need to wait till December to see how things will turn out since both LMIR and AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT have declared their final distributions for the year.

Saizen REIT

Saizen REIT's next income distribution is in March 2011. I overlooked the fact that this REIT pays half-yearly. So, without any contribution from Saizen REIT in December, I would probably not be able to hit the $50k target this year.

Also, my estimate of an annualised 1.6c DPU for Saizen REIT was somewhat optimistic earlier in Sep and it was partly premised on the successful re-financing of YK Shintoku. A more realistic annualised DPU is probably about 1.2c if YK Shintoku's loan was refinanced successfully sooner than later. This is after learning at the AGM that continual divestment of properties in YK Shintoku is necessary in order for refinancing to be viewed more favourably by potential lenders. For me, this means a reduction of 25% in estimated passive income from this investment.

Needless to say, such a reduction is not helpful towards achieving the annual passive income target I have set but in absolute dollar terms, I still expect this REIT to contribute a lion's share of my passive income for 2011.

Read my comments here.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT

This REIT had a successful rights issue recently which made its existing unitholders somewhat richer. I was very pleased with the rights issue and I have not sold any of my rights units exercised at 15.5c as they will enjoy a yield of 13.4% in 2011 when the annualised DPU of 2.08c kicks in. Of course, trading at 22.5c a unit now, I have a handsome 45% capital gain (on paper) for these rights units as well.

However, the last income distribution came in weaker at DPU of 0.3968c. In my blog post of 29 Oct, I said, "This is because of the issue of 513.3 million rights units on 14 October 2010 and 7.2 million units to the Manager on 19 October 2010 for payment of the acquisition fee in relation to the acquisition of 27 Penjuru Lane. Distributable income from 27 Penjuru Lane would be included in the next distribution, not this one, since the acquisition was done in 3Q FY2011 and not in 2Q FY2011."  Read blog post here.

Of course, this does not change the fact that the lower DPU this time round (payable in December) is not going to help me hit my passive income target this year.


LMIR

Although I am still somewhat disappointed with the management, this REIT is a stable passive income generator. Their latest DPU of 1.09c is marginally higher than the previous quarter's 1.04c.  This is largely in line with my expectations, that "I expect the S$ to appreciate more robustly in future and it is unlikely that the DPU would reduce much more.  Conservatively, I estimate the DPU to be 1c per quarter or 4c per year from December 2010." Read blog post here.

Obviously, at a more conservative estimate of 4c DPU per annum, this is 20% lesser than the 5c DPU I was expecting at the start of the year.

So, based purely on these three investments, I have come up short this year with regards to my annual passive income target in the stock market.

Important development:

Recently, I have been buying more units of First REIT with a view that their recently announced acquisitions and rights issue are attractive propositions which would provide a distribution yield of 9% in 2011. Including the rights which I am entitled to and which I fully intend to accept and pay for, First REIT would rival LMIR as my third largest investment in the stock market.

So, from 1 Jan 2011, I will include dividends collected from First REIT in my calculations towards the target of $50k in annual passive income. I will continue to share my results here in my blog. Wish me luck.

Related posts:
$50k in annual passive income.
First REIT: Rights issue.

Suntec REIT: OCBC retains BUY call.

Friday, November 19, 2010

On 27 October, I mentioned "It would be interesting to see what kind of financing structure would be decided upon. It is my assumption that Suntec REIT would issue rights to fund the purchase instead of having a share placement exercise if it is sincere about improving the distributions for unitholders. It could also gear up to 45% (on existing properties, excluding the proposed acquisition) and get about $600 million in loans which would reduce the size of any accompanying rights issue."

See circular to unitholders here.

It seems that there will not be any rights issue as the acquisition would be financed with the proceeds from a private placement of new units and a S$1,105.0 million debt facility. I generally do not like share placements as it does not allow minority unitholders to take part. However, if the new units are issued at a price close to the market price, it is not too big an issue. The acquisition is expected to increase Suntec REIT’s DPU marginally from 8.611c to 8.699c. So, I guess I won't have to do anything here.

OCBC published this today while maintaining its BUY call:
Debt facility secured at very competitive all-in cost of debt of 3.12%; timing, issue price of private placement equity portion dependent on market conditions.



Related post:
Suntec REIT: MBFC.

Tea with AK71: A day at MBLM.

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

What is MBLM? It stands for Marina Bay Link Mall. This is the underground mall at MBFC, the development which K-REIT and Suntec REIT would co-own with each having a 33% stake.

I was wondering where should I spend my vacation which starts today and I decided to stay in Singapore instead of going overseas. I would spend time going places here and help to stimulate the local economy. Singapore's domestic economy has been said to be tiny. So, I am doing my patriotic duty by spending my vacation money here instead of going away to a foreign land. Ahem.

So? I like the mall. Shops on both sides, it has a wide centre aisle with high ceiling. It is defnitely less claustrophobic compared to the Citylink Mall (which I somewhat dislike). In time, with the completion of the Downtown Line for the MRT, I am sure MBLM would be just as busy as Citylink Mall but the generous space allowance should be enough to cope with increased human traffic. MBLM also serves the residents of The Sail and Marina Bay Residences condominiums. In fact, half the shoppers at MBLM I saw today were foreigners, probably expatriates, with kids.

Go visit MBLM before it becomes crowded. Now till end of the year, spend $80 at MBLM and we will get $15 shopping voucher plus 4 hours of parking for free. There is also an instant lucky dip to win iPads and iPhones but that's for weekends only and I was so hoping to win an iPad. :(

So, I got my $15 voucher, free parking, wrapping paper for Christmas and 2 lucky draw chances. Hope that I would win 1st prize which is for $8,000 worth of shopping vouchers! Then, I would go to the Apple retailer in the mall and get my iPad, Macbook Air etc. Wah.... Day dreaming. Nice!

Anyway, with 4 hours of free parking, I had time to burn as MBLM is smallish with a floor plan shaped like the letter "L" and not many shops were ready for business. I walked to Marina Bay Sands (MBS) to explore the shopping mall.  It was my second time at MBS which has a much bigger shopping mall.  This time round, more shops were open and I didn't have to pay an exorbitant $10 per hour for parking my car! That makes me happy.

Apparently, MBS is now giving free parking for the first 3 hours but one would have to spend $200 at the mall to qualify. I won't qualify. Free parking at MBS costs more than MBLM, if you know what I mean. MBS is for the well heeled, obviously. I like MBLM more which might say something about me. ;)

These are some photos I took with my free Samsung mobile phone which comes with a 5.0 megapixel camera built in. Pretty good shots, aren't they? I still remember when digital cameras were 1.3 megapixel in resolution.




After spending almost 4 hours at Marina Bay, fully utilising my free parking privilege, I went back to Tiong Baru and had a bowl of freshly made bean curd (dou hua) for 60c. Where to find? Tiong Baru Market lor.

Now back in my bedroom, with the air-conditioning set at 25 deg celcius and blogging. Time for a nap! I am a happy man. :)

Suntec REIT: BUY calls.

Thursday, October 28, 2010

Suntec REIT is enjoying BUY calls from DBS Vickers and CIMB even as it prepares to acquire a one third stake in MBFC. Some salient points:

DBS Vickers
The group revalued up portfolio by 3.6% translating to NAV of $1.828/share. Going forward, Suntec has c14% of office and 27% of retail NLA due for reversion in 2011 and we expect office rents to show some uptick while retail component to remain stable.

Recent refinancing exercise of $700m due in FY12 are likely to lower its current overall cost of debt of 3.77% as the new loans were concluded at a lower spread of 1.5%, as well as smoothen out the group’s debt maturity profile.

We are tweaking our FY11 numbers by 3.1% to reflect the impact of recent refinancing exercise but exclude the effect of the MBFC1 acquisition. Maintain Buy call pending more information on the transaction. Based on FY10 and FY11 DPU of 9.8cts and 9.7cts, Suntec is trading at decent DPU yields of 6.3-6.2%. Our target price of $1.66 offers 12% total return.


CIMB
3Q10 NPI grew 7.6% yoy, led mainly by a 2.1% yoy increase in gross revenue on stronger office contributions and a lower property tax. Portfolio occupancy continued to strengthen on the back of better office occupancy which mitigated lower retail occupancy in the quarter.

Our DDM-based target price, however, has been raised to S$1.63 (discount rate 8.1%) from S$1.60 as we roll over to end-CY11. Maintain Outperform on further improvements in the retail and office outlook. We see near-term catalysts from more concrete signs of DPU accretion from the latest acquisition.

I would wait for the circular on the proposed acquisition and method of financing to be released to unitholders before commenting further.

Related post:
Suntec REIT: MBFC.

Suntec REIT: MBFC.

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Suntec REIT is purchasing the one-third interest in Marina Bay Financial Centre (MBFC) held by Choicewide Group Limited, Cavell Limited and Hutchison Whampoa Properties Limited for S$1,495.8 million. This is hot on the heels of the announcement by K-REIT that it would purchase Keppel Land's one third interest in the same project. See slides here.

"The Manager is currently reviewing various financing options for the Acquisition to determine an optimal capital structure for the Acquisition. Details for the financing structure will be set out in the circular to be issued to Unitholders in due course, together with a notice of an extraordinary general meeting of Unitholders, for the purpose of seeking the approval of Unitholders for the Acquisition" and "The Acquisition is expected to improve the earnings and distributions for Unitholders". Read press release here

As per Suntec REIT's latest report, its current gearing is at 32.9%.  Total assets at S$5.275 billion.  Debt at S$1.733 billion. The REIT currently has 1,881,862,143 units in issue. See Financial Results for 3Q2010 here.

The net property income (NPI) of Suntec REIT is about S$200 million, annualised. NPI yield is 3.8%.  So, the acquisition at S$1,495.8m should at least have an annualised NPI of about S$60m (for a NPI yield of 4%) to make it NPI yield accretive.

Details as to the NPI of the acquisition has not been made available. However, it was made known that the acquisition will increase Suntec REIT’s office portfolio nett lettable area (NLA) from approximately 1.9 million sq ft to approximately 2.4 million sq ft. Using K-REIT's one third share of the same project as a guide which gives a NPI of S$37.396 million and if we include the income support of S$113.9 million payable over 60 months to be provided by the Vendor, giving us S$ 22.8m per year, we would get S$60.196m per year. So, the purchase looks to be NPI accretive.

It would be interesting to see what kind of financing structure would be decided upon. It is my assumption that Suntec REIT would issue rights to fund the purchase instead of having a share placement exercise if it is sincere about improving the distributions for unitholders. It could also gear up to 45% (on existing properties, excluding the proposed acquisition) and get about $600 million in loans which would reduce the size of any accompanying rights issue. Perhaps, in such an instance, they would have a 1 for 2 rights issue at about $1.00 per rights which would obtain an additional $909 million in funds. It could also gear up on the proposed acquisition (a 40% gearing would secure another $600 million in loans). This would further reduce the size of any accompanying rights issue.

Of course, this is all guesswork on my part. It is very late and I am half asleep. Let's wait for the circular.

Charts in brief: 27 April 10.

Tuesday, April 27, 2010



AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: This counter has formed two dragonfly dojis in a row.  Look at the OBV and we see steady accumulation as steps are formed upwards. The MACD continues to pull away upwards from the signal line.  This is a REIT with strong numbers and technically, it has limited downside as well.  Still one of my favourite high yields.


CapitaMalls Asia: A white hammer! Another reversal signal! Dare I believe it? $2.12 support identified in earlier TAs was hit today.  Closing at $2.15 is actually closing at resistance.  So, if this is indeed a reversal signal, there should be confirmation tomorrow.  Let's see.


Golden Agriculture: Volume expanded on a black candle day as price closed at 60c, the support provided by the 20dMA. If this support breaks, the next support is at 57.5c. The many times tested resistance at 62.5c remains the immediate upside target.

Healthway Medical: The declining 20dMA has made contact with the 50dMA. A dead cross is imminent. Price touched a low of 15.5c, a price the counter has not seen since 3 Mar this year.  That this happened on much higher volume is ominous. MACD is under zero which suggests that the positive momentum is over. This is confirmed by the declining MFI, forming lower highs. The positives? OBV is flat which suggests a lack of accumulation AND distribution.  Stochastics shows a deeply oversold situation. So? I do not expect any crash in price but a gradual drift downwards is probable, in the absence of any positive catalyst.


China Hongxing: Much lower volume.  OBV flattened.  Price unchanged. MFI and Stochastics are still declining and seem ready to move into oversold territory.  For now, it seems that the selling pressure has abated but the technicals are definitely more negative overall. Any upside will meet with resistance at 15c, provided by the 20dMA.

Courage Marine: OBV turned up ever so slightly on a white candle day. It could very well have been a doji since only 2 lots were done at 23c at closing, seemingly in an effort to form a white candle. That price action has detached from the upper limits of the Bollinger band is obvious.  This usually suggests that the uptrend has lost momentum. In case the price does continue moving higher, 23.5c remains the initial resistance, followed by 25.5c and 27c.  Initial support is at 22c.




U.S. Finally Starts Dumping Citigroup
-- Smart Move, Tim Geithner!
Posted Apr 26, 2010 03:30pm EDT by Henry Blodget

 
Related post:
Charts in brief: 26 April 10.

Revisiting High Yield Portfolio.

Saturday, April 24, 2010

On 17 April, I mentioned that I checked Google Analytics to see how my blog was doing and was surprised to find that one of my earliest posts made last Christmas Eve was the most viewed post of my blog.  It was a post that I made about six counters I am vested in and would recommend to anyone who is interested in building up a high yield portfolio.

Out of curiosity rather than necessity, I decided to take a look at the portfolio to see how it has performed since:

Saizen REIT:  This was 15c at the time. The last done price was 17c. Gained 13.3%.  Income distribution to resume in mid 2010.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT (MI-REIT):  This was 20.5c at the time. The last done price was 22c.  Gained 7.3%. XD 12 Feb: 0.1868c which is a yield of 0.91%.

LMIR: This was 51.5c at the time. The last done price was 50c.  Lost 3%. XD 17 Feb: 1.6c which is a yield of 3.1%.

First REIT: This was 80c at the time. The last done price was 87c.  Gained 8.75%. XD 28 Jan: 1.91c which is a yield of 2.39%.

Suntec REIT: This was $1.34 at the time. The last done price was $1.38.  Gained 2.99%.  XD 29 Jan: 0.318c which is a yield of 0.2%.

SPH: This was $3.60 at the time. The last done price was $4.15.  Gained 15.3%.

Assuming that an investor had put in an equal amount of money in each of these six counters on 28 Dec 2009, he would have gained 7.44%.  He would also have an average yield of 1.1%.  Total returns of 8.54%. Not bad for a 4 months period (28 Dec to 23 Apr). Since inflation is expected to be about 3% this year, this portfolio has beaten inflation by now.

The allure of such a portfolio is that very little time is required to maintain it. Buy in at fair prices as indicated by the charts and simply hold until a time when the technicals turn negative. Regular streams of passive income happening in the meantime would make an average person quite happy. Such a portfolio is perfect for anyone who does not have the time, savvy or inclination to trade the market.

It would be interesting to see how this portfolio would do after a 12 months period. I expect that it would look even better with all the income distributions from the REITs and the dividends from SPH streaming in over the next few months.  Let's check in again on 24 Dec 2010, shall we?

Related posts:
Tea with AK71: Top 5 posts.
High yield portfolio.

----------------------------------
I don't usually watch football but this is entertaining:
A match in Argentina produces a bizarre goal, with two players scoring the same overhead kick.

High yields: Successes, failures and the in betweens.

Monday, March 1, 2010

In this post, I shall share some personal experience with high yielding trusts and provide some numbers in the process for the purpose of illustration.

High yielding trusts which have done very well for me are those which meet the selection criteria I have talked about so many times before for REITs.  Investing in such trusts is mainly about generating a steady passive income (cash flow) and to do this well, we have to look for low gearing, high yield and attractive discount to NAVs. These factors will ensure that the trusts' distributions are meaningful and sustainable.  Here are some which have done well for me:

First REIT:  I first bought some in 2007.  It had low gearing, high yield but did not have a great discount to NAV.  My initial purchase price was in the mid 70c.  The dpu was about 6c per annum.  As prices slumped during this last crisis, I bough more at 42c.  The dpu has risen to almost 8c per annum in the meantime.  First REIT didn't have to issue any rights or do any share placements as its gearing was relatively low and still is.  The unit price of the REIT now is 82c thereabouts.

LMIR:  I first bought some in 2007, not during the IPO at 80c, but after the price dropped to 70c days after.  It had low gearing, an attractive yield and trading at a discount to NAV.  During the last crisis, I bought more and the lowest price I bought more at was 18c.  The dpu is now almost 5c per annum.  It didn't have to issue any rights or do any share placements as its gearing was very low and still is.  The current unit price is about 48c or so.

Suntec REIT:  I always wanted some Suntec REIT units but looked on in amazement as the price hit $2.00 at one stage.  I bought some at $1.03 during the downtrend.  It went on in the coming months to make a new low at 50c or so, if I remember correctly.  As the price recovered, I bought more at an average price of $1.00 or so.  NAV per unit was almost $2.00. So, the discount to NAV was very attractive. The dpu is about 10c and provides a handsome 10% yield for me.  Gearing level is not very low though. 

Hyflux Water Trust:  A business trust, not a REIT.  This is an investment which many of my friends remember because I was talking about it a lot early last year.  They listened politely mostly.  I was always interested in this trust as it has regular cash flow through its exposure to the water sector in China.  In January 2009, I looked at it again in greater detail as the price was so low.  I found the yield to be almost 20% then.  Gearing was non-existent and it was trading at a very nice discount to NAV.  The unit price was 30c or so at that time.  I went on a buying spree.

I did not keep all of these investments bought at low prices. I sold most of them for very nice capital gains, cycling the funds into laggard counters like Healthway Medical to make more money.  I kept, on average, 10% of my original positions in each of these investments to collect passive income in perpetuity.  It would have been nice if I had been able to keep my investments in these trusts in full and yet have more money to invest in laggard counters but, unfortunately, my resources are limited.

As you could probably tell, I was not always rigorous in making sure that all three criteria I talked about were met in choosing a trust.  In part, such trusts did not present themselves all the time and I had to make do with the best choices available.  This last crisis, however, was an opportunity of a lifetime.

It was also because I was not rigorous that in my early years with trusts, I made many mistakes in my choices. What we must always remember is not to focus solely on yields.  Also, do not invest in anything without doing our own FA. Here were some of my mistakes:

MPSF: It just got suspended today. This must have been my worst mistake. I listened to a very young "analyst" who said it gave upwards of 10% in yield and that the yield was sustainable. I invested a five figure sum without doing any analysis of my own. I later found out that MPSF invests in other REITs in Australia and as some of these REITs are private in nature, they could gear up to 80%! MSPF froze all distributions with the credit crisis but what is worse is the complicated situation it is in with so many cans of worms. There is no passive income for unitholders and, as far as I can see, there is no clarity as to its future. Must remember not to be swayed by sweet talking analysts. Always do our own homework.

FSL Trust: A friend introduced me to shipping trusts saying that I should diversify my passive income stream. He also introduced me to Rickmers and PST but I only have a position in FSL Trust. I still get passive income from the cash flow generated by its business and I receive  >8% yield per year based on my average price. High gearing in excess of 100% and the fact that its assets depreciate whether or not the economy does well make this a mistake for me.

CitySpring: This is a business trust. I was emboldened by the fact that this has the backing of Temasek Holdings. It had very high gearing but the management (headed by Sunny Verghese) said that they did not have to issue rights and people who thought they had to didn't understand their business. A few months later, they issued rights. The yield plunged and unitholders became poorer as they subscribed to the rights. It yields an average of 6.5% per annum for me.

There are a few others but the essence of the negative experience is more or less the same. For examples, with FCOT (previously Allco REIT) and MI-REIT (now AMPS AMP Capital Industrial REIT), I overlooked their high gearing levels at the time of purchase.  This is also a reason why I tell people to be cautious with Cambridge Industrial Trust (CIT) which I am vested in as well as its gearing is still in excess of 40%.

As creating a significant stream of passive income is still a very important objective for me, trusts with high yields must still play a part in the grand scheme of things. Rather than remember the pain and avoid these trusts altogether, I choose to remember the pain and find a way to achieve mastery over them. I hope that by freely sharing what I have realised to be the right way to approach REITs (and other forms of trusts) here in my blog, other investors who might not be in the know would not have to suffer like I did.

Portfolio strategy.

Sunday, January 31, 2010

Done my weekly reading of The EDGE.  Goola Warden, Darryl Guppy and Michael Kahn are people whose articles I enjoy reading.  I have also learned a lot about TA from their writings.  In this issue of The EDGE, all of them have gone decidedly bearish about the prospects of global stock markets.  My own reading of the STI shows that the uptrend is still intact but the index is in a rather dicey situation should it not confirm the reversal signal seen in the last session.  With the US market closing in the red in the last session, the STI has to look to the SSE and HSI for leadership and we might agree that it is not all that promising.

So, what are we to do?  I have taken much of my profit off the table three weeks ago.  I have been averaging back into the market as prices came down to supports.  Looking ahead, I plan to continue accumulating high yielding counters at attractive valuations.  This remains the core of my investment strategy as my long term aim is to acquire a reliable passive income stream from high yields.

Which high yields would I want to accumulate?  After all, you might remember that I revealed a long list of high yields which I currently own.  Please see:  Grow your wealth and beat inflation.

One high yield which I have been constantly accumulating and will continue to do so is Saizen REIT.  Amongst the S-REITs, it is hard to find another REIT with as compelling a valuation. Having said that, there are a few others which I am keen on and I will keep an eye on.  They are AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, LMIR and Suntec REIT.  Any decline in unit prices of these REITs will be an opportunity for me to further secure yields of >10% p.a. from various sources.

I would be looking out for opportunities to partially divest my remaining investment in Healthway Medical as I stated in a comment to this post: Healthway Medical: Dwindling volume.  I said: "Healthway Medical does look like it is suffering from fatigue of late. With more shares being issued and with the lower target price by DMG, it is probably difficult for the counter to form a new high anytime soon."

I will also be keeping an eye on Golden Agriculture.  If the 100dMA support at 48c breaks, it is very bearish.  Any move up towards the 20dMA at 56c in the near future provides an opportunity to reduce exposure.

I still like the long term fundamentals of Healthway Medical and Golden Agriculture.  However, as Darryl Guppy expressed so well: "Markets are efficient at recording the emotional behaviour of participants.  They are less efficient at reflecting the economic fundamentals."  I have also said that it is important to know when to buy but it is also important to know when to sell: Rationale for partial divestment.

Good luck in the new week!

A new year and a new decade. Strategy for 2010.

Friday, January 1, 2010


As Featured On EzineArticles


Firstly, Happy New Year! It's the beginning of a new year and a new decade. Many countries in the world still have huge debts to deal with but let's hope things will be better the next 10 years.

This is extracted from the latest issue of NEWSWEEK magazine:

The American goverment may owe China US$799 billion but when it comes to foreign debt per capita, the US is relatively prudent. Which nationality has the highest foreign debt per capita?

Greeks US$ 27,746
Belgians US$ 27,023
Austrians US$ 26,502
Irish US$ 24,247
Norwegians US$ 21,402
Italians US$ 21,089
Dutch US$ 20,412
French US$ 18,946
Germans US$ 15,574
Finns US$ 13,617
Americans US$ 11,094
Danes US$ 9,410
Spaniards US$ 8,715
Swedes US$ 7,058
Brits US$ 6,526


Now, this puts things in perspective. Many countries are still not out of the woods. This gives the idea that we will see the global economy going into a tailspin again in the next 2 or 3 years greater credence. We are experiencing a cyclical bull in a secular bear market and not the beginnings of a secular bull market.

My strategy for 2010?

1. Gold
I am keeping an eye on the price of gold. If it goes closer to the psychologically important support level of US$1,000 an ounce, I will buy more physical gold as a long term hedge against inflation. Gold also acts as an insurance for my other investments. I buy physical gold from UOB.

2. Crude oil
I believe that demand for crude oil will continue to strengthen through 2010. However, it will not go up in a straight line. It will climb a wall of worries and we will have plenty of worries in 2010, no doubt. I would trade counters which are leveraged to the price of crude palm oil (CPO) as a proxy to the price movement of crude oil. I like Golden Agriculture.

3. Japan
As a contrarian play, Japan might outperform after almost two decades being in the doldrums. I like the Japanese Yen. I like Japanese real estate. I like Saizen REIT.

4. Indonesia
A strong emerging market, Indonesia did not suffer negative growth in 2009. I like LMIR and First REIT for the low gearings and the high yields.

5. Healthcare
There is greater demand for quality healthcare with increasing affluence and an ageing population in Singapore. I choose Healthway Medical.

6. Tourism
2010 will be a year where tourist arrivals balloon in Singapore with the completion of the two integrated resorts (IRs). Looking for value and high yield, I like Suntec REIT and SPH.

There are many other counters which will do well in 2010 but I will concentrate on these I've highlighted. The choices here are based on FA. Remember to use TA to identify entry and exit prices. Good luck in 2010.

High yield portfolio

Thursday, December 24, 2009

In case anyone is interested in building up a portfolio of high yielding Singapore counters, here are a few counters worth considering:

Saizen REIT - For a potential yield of 13% from middle of 2010. Lower gearing in time. A strong Yen is a plus as distributable income is converted to S$ for distribution to unitholders. At 15c, it is deeply undervalued. Please refer to the earlier entry on Saizen REIT for a more detailed write-up. Passive income with high yields: Saizen REIT

MI-REIT - Soon to be renamed AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT. With its recent recapitalisation exercise, gearing is at 29% and the yield is a respectable 10% with price at 20.5c. NAV is 31c. I like Singapore industrial properties a bit more than office buildings as the demand is more inelastic. AIMS-AMP Capital Industrial Reit (MI-REIT)


LMIR - A joint venture between Indonesian powerhouse, Lippo, and Mapletree (a subsidiary of Singapore's Temasek Holdings). Indonesia never did go into a recession. It kept growing through the financial crisis. This REIT owns shopping malls in the country. With domestic consumption forming 60% of GDP plus a growing middle class, this REIT will do better in time. Indonesia needs more malls. Yield is at 9.5% with price at 51.5c. Gearing is a low 12%. Price has closed above resistance. 50c might just be resistance turned support. LMIR

First REIT - Owned by Lippo, it primarily owns healthcare facilities in Indonesia and Singapore. Yield at 9.5% with price at 80c. Gearing is a low 16%. This counter has been doing a levitation act. Seemingly infallible.

Suntec REIT - A respectable yield of 8.6% with price at $1.35. Gearing is at 34%. However, its price is close to resistance. Might want to wait for a pullback before entering. $1.25 or thereabouts would be a nice entry price.

SPH - My favourite high yield blue chip. At the price of $3.60, I'm estimating a fairly conservative 5.5% yield in 2010. Strong balance sheet. Price seems to be going through a basing process now.

I own units or shares in all the above. These are for long term passive income generation. So, I won't be too bothered by short term price fluctuations. There will come a time when I should liquidate these. This is when there is a change in the longer term trend.
A new year and a new decade. Strategy for 2010. 

Update (added on 13 Oct 2010).


Monthly Popular Blog Posts

All time ASSI most popular!

 
 
Bloggy Award