Tea with AK71: Tartlets and a view of the city.

Life is unpredictable. Sometimes, we get nice surprises and, sometimes, we get nasty ones. Today, I had a surprise which resulted in me being quite free of work. So, I suppose this is a nice surprise. However, I found myself wondering what to do today.

I did the laundry in the morning, had breakfast with a friend in town and came back home. After washing up, I checked my blog, replied to comments and emails. Hmm... What to do next on a restive Sunday?

I took a couple of photos with my trusty IXUS and here they are:

I like these tartlets from Arnotts's but they are pretty expensive. So, I hardly buy them. However, a budget store that I visit regularly at Redhill Market was selling these at $1.05 per packet (150 gm). Irresistible!

Three flavors available: Blueberry, Raspberry and Strawberry. Er.. you don't see the strawberry flavored ones in the photo because those tartlets already found their way into my stomach.

This photo was taken from my balcony. I like being near the city but not in the city, if you know what I mean.

It is a nice view of the city, isn't it? I will miss this view as I have sold my place and moved back to stay with my parents in the western part of Singapore.

Not going to think of investments and finance for the rest of the day. Maybe, I will take a nap. Have a good Sunday, everyone. :)

U.S. Senate scuttled emergency legislation!

So many want to have a two party government in Singapore. Personally, I always say that if something is not broken, don't fix it. Seeing how the two parties in the US government are acting, I am thankful Singapore is not on the same boat.

With National Day just round the corner, a week after the 2 August deadline for the US to raise its debt ceiling, I am counting our blessings. We never know we have a good thing until we have lost it. Let's not lose it.

Latest update on the US situation:

In an unforgiving display of partisanship, the Republican-controlled House approved emergency legislation Friday night to avoid an unprecedented government default and Senate Democrats scuttled it less than two hours later in hopes of a better deal.

"We are almost out of time" for a compromise, warned President Barack Obama as U.S. financial markets trembled at the prospect of economic chaos next week. The Dow Jones average fell for a sixth straight session.

Lawmakers in both parties said they were determined to avoid a default, yet there was little evidence of progress -- or even significant negotiations -- on a compromise during a long day of intense political maneuvering...


...Administration officials say that without legislation in place by Tuesday, the Treasury will no longer be able to pay all its bills. The result could inflict significant damage on the economy, they add, causing interest rates to rise and financial markets to sink.

Executives from the country's biggest banks met with U.S. Treasury officials to discuss how debt auctions will be handled if Congress fails to raise the borrowing limit before Tuesday's deadline.

But Carney said the administration did not plan to provide the public with details Friday on how the government will prioritize payments...

Read full article here.

How will a default by the US affect Singapore?

I read an article in the newspapers today and it confirmed my fears that Singapore could once again suffer a severe downturn if the US government does not raise its debt ceiling come 2 August. Many would have to face extreme hardship once more.

Salient points in the article:

1. US banks account for some 15% of domestic lending in Singapore.

2. If US defaults, US banks will withdraw their funds from Singapore.

'Should the US default and a credit crunch happen, it would make the fall of Lehman look like a picnic,' Robert Prior-Wandesforde, Credit Suisse.

I remember what happened when Lehman Brothers collapsed. The stock markets went into tailspins. All the buyers disappeared. Real estate was similarly affected as prices of condominiums here in Singapore declined some 30% in some cases.

I remember at the time, Soleil at Sinaran was newly launched and many buyers actually forfeited their 5% deposits and did not exercise their options to purchase. It was that bad.

My Geology professor once said to us that economists have made a mess of the world and it would be impossible for me to comprehend the mess totally. Thus, it would suffice for me to know what actions to take to position myself for whatever eventuality.

If the debt ceiling should be raised, the party will continue. Inflation could get worse and the stock market could see a new high. What to do? Stay invested.

If the debt ceiling fails to be raised, the party will end. Credit will become hard to come by or at least be more expensive. This affects costs in all its forms and will affect all businesses and individuals. What to do? Divest.

We should take a position that will allow us to benefit if either scenario should come to pass. How do we do this? The simplicity of my answer might just disarm you: be 50% invested.

Good luck.

Read article in The Straits Times here.

Debt ceiling gridlock: Who will get paid?

Banks are slashing jobs!

Banks are retrenching. Should we be worried? Is a recession round the corner? Your guess is as good as mine. Best to have our emergency funds ready just in case. If we are thinking of buying shares on the cheap, make sure we have a war chest ready as well. Oh, make sure it is not empty. ;)

HSBC will slash more than 10,000 jobs as part of the global banking giant's recently announced cost-cutting drive, a report said.

Broadcaster Sky News said senior executives at the bank "are close to finalising costs cuts that will result in thousands of jobs being axed across the bank's sprawling global empire."

The report on Wednesday said London-headquartered HSBC may chop more than 10,000 positions across its operations, citing unnamed sources.

A bank spokeswoman in Hong Kong on Thursday declined comment on the report.


Read full report here.

Swiss banking giant Credit Suisse said on Thursday that its second quarter net profit plunged 52 percent, adding it would cut about four percent of its workforce worldwide.

Net profit for the three months ending June fell to 768 million Swiss francs (US$957 million, 667 million euros) from 1.6 billion francs a year ago, amid "disappointing performance" by its investment bank unit.

Concerns over the European debt crisis and weakening global economic indicators led to weak client demand and a poor trading environment, said the group.


Read full report here.

Good luck to us all.

Cache Logistics Trust: 2Q 2011.

The decision to use funds from the partial divestment of Saizen REIT to invest in Cache Logistics Trust at the right prices a few months ago continues to be rewarding.

The management has declared a DPU of 2.086c for 2Q 2011 which is much higher than the DPU of 1.71c the same quarter last year in 2010. At the high of 99c/unit hit this morning, the REIT had an annualised distribution yield of 8.43%. Income distribution will go XD on 2 August and is payable on 29 August.

Current gearing level is 29.1% and this will increase to 30.2% upon completion of acquisition of a warehouse facility in Loyang belonging to Air Market Express. This acquisition is expected to contribute 0.05c in DPU in time.

I also like how its cost of borrowing has come down with its all in interest cost now at 3.92% compared to 4.37% in the last quarter. This contributes to a higher level of distributable income.

Some other numbers:
NAV/unit: 88c.
Interest cover ratio: 9.2x


Interest cover ratio came down from 9.5x in the last quarter. This suggests that interest expense in dollar terms has gone up faster than net property income (NPI). However, at 9.2x, it is still much healthier compared to AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, Cambridge Industrial Trust or even Sabana REIT. So, I am not unduly worried. Just have to keep an eye on things, as always.

See announcement here.
See presentation slides here.

Related post:
Cache Logistics Trust: 1Q 2011.

Sabana REIT: 2Q FY2011.

I have been accumulating units in Sabana REIT even after it went XD the first time round, convinced that it has many high quality assets and that the income distribution is sustainable for the foreseeable future.

Last night, it released results for 2Q FY2011 and results were largely in line. DPU of 2.18c was declared, slightly less than my expectation of 2.2c. At the current unit price of 94.5c, it means a distribution yield of 9.23%.

Some numbers:
NAV/unit: 98c.
Gearing: 25.1%
Interest Cover Ratio: 7.6x

Nothing exciting but I will be keeping an eye on gearing and interest cover ratio. Gearing increased by 0.2% while interest cover ratio went down from 7.9x to 7.6x. There was also a higher drawdown of rental support for 9 Tai Seng Drive. In the near future, these are perhaps not really big concerns but if they persist, they could be.

Better quality assets aside, if the management is not doing a good job, they could destroy a good thing. Well, we will have to wait and see. Meanwhile, enjoy the dividend.

See presentation slides here.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Higher DPU and 20 Gul Way.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT has once again delivered results which are above expectations. I was expecting a quarterly DPU of 0.5c but, instead, 0.53c has been declared. XD: 2 August. Payable on 14 September.

What's more? This is only 96.8% of total amount for distribution, not 100%. Annualised, it would be 2.12c which means a distribution yield 9.64% at the unit price of 22c/unit.

Gearing level has decreased to 30.4%.

Interest cover ratio has increased to 6.4x. It was 5.0x before.

NAV/unit is at 26.8c. So, the REIT is still trading at a significant discount to NAV.

It has been said before that many of the REIT's properties have great potential for redevelopment or Asset Enhancements as many of its properties have not maxed out their plot ratios. Unitholders have been waiting for this and today, the management announced that it will be redeveloping the property on 20 Gul Way.

20 Gul Way, currently with total gross floor area of 378,064 sq feet will become a five storey ramp up warehouse facility with total gross floor area of 1,159,536 sq feet! The total value of assets under management for the REIT will cross $1b upon completion of works in two phases!

Upon completion of both phases, everything else remaining equal, we are likely to see an increase in DPU per year by 0.293c if the redevelopment were to be funded 100% by debt. However, we must remember that it will take years to complete redevelopment work.

Phase 1 is estimated to take 15 months to complete while Phase 2 is estimated to take another 13 months to complete. The whole redevelopment is estimated to be completed in 2013 and is definitely a step in the right direction.

See 1Q FY2012 results here.
See announcement on 20 Gul Way here.

Noble Group: Another quick trade.

Technical analysis (TA) is dynamic. Day to day, charts have new information and TA will provide new insights.

Not too long ago, I wondered if Noble Group's share price might hit $1.90. Read blog post here.




If you guess that I must have been waiting to sell at $1.90, you are right.

However, doing a bit of charting last night revealed that we might not see $1.90 although there is still a chance we could.

The declining 20dMA is now at $1.89 while trading volume has dwindled lately.

Today, it hit a high of $1.875 before closing at $1.865, forming a white spinning top (almost) in the process.

There is obviously some struggle between bulls and bears at this level.





Half an hour before the market closed, seeing how $1.875 presented a respectable resistance and is only three bids from $1.89, I decided to divest at $1.87, selling straight instead of queueing at $1.875.

That is 4 bids below $1.89 but it gives me a gross gain of 5% in less than a fortnight.

It seems that I have made another quick trade after the recent one with NOL.

Conditions are not easy for long traders in recent months.






Counter trend trading demands that I stay nimble footed and less greedy.

A 5% gain here and there? Why not?

I am still learning.

Golden Agriculture: 200wMA cleared.

Golden Agriculture closed above the 200wMA in the last session. Cleared of this hurdle, we could see its share price going higher from here.

It is interesting to observe that the 50wMA has been crucial as support, seeing how share price bounced off the line each time it was tested in the past.

It would not be unrealistic to expect any retest of the 50wMA to see strong buying interest.

Related post:
Golden Agriculture: 68c support.

First REIT: 2Q 2011 results.

First REIT's results are more or less in line with forecast with a DPU of 1.58c for 2Q 2011. The REIT will go XD on 28 July and income distribution is payable to unitholders on 29 August.

The REIT's strong numbers have been mentioned before and here's the update:

NAV/unit: 78c
Interest cover ratio: 15x
Gearing: 13.8%

I am pleasantly surprised that its management is planning to have a special non-recurring dividend to be paid from its divestment gain resulting from the sale of its Adam Road property. This could translate into an additional one off DPU of more than 1c in future.

Low gearing, high interest cover ratio and a distribution yield of almost 8% with a special dividend to boot. This REIT is rock solid and remains one of my best investments in years.

One of my best investments it might be but it would not pay to fall in love with it. Even great investments would not see share prices go up in a straight line. They climb a wall of worries. However, today's white candle was formed on the back of very high volume and we could see price pushing even higher in the next session. 85c next? Possibly.

Weekly

Daily

With price pushing beyond the upper Bollinger band, a pull back to supports would be a natural course. When? I would suspect it could happen when the counter goes XD. Immediate support at 80c? Or perhaps 79c? That's where the Fibo lines are on the daily chart.

Good luck to fellow unitholders.

See announcement here.
See presentation slides here.

Related post:
First REIT: Yield accretive purchase in South Korea.

Cambridge Industrial Trust: 2Q 2011 results.

The last time I blogged about this REIT was on 28 April and I was so negative about it that some readers divested their shares in the REIT straightaway. Read blog post here.

Now, I have to say this again that my blog is purely to share my thoughts, a place where I think aloud, so to speak. It is not to exhort anyone to buy or sell anything.

In a reply to a reader, OT, I mentioned that I would wait to see if I could divest my investment at 52c just to close a chapter (again). Even with mediocre investments, there could be a better time to sell.

Fundamentally, with a 2Q DPU of 1.036c, it translates to an annualised distribution yield of just 7.97% at the unit price of 52c.

Gearing at 32.7% and interest cover ratio at 5x are similar to AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT's.

The difference? AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT has an estimated distribution yield of 9.09% at the unit price of 22c. Money should go to where it is treated best.

Technically, the resistance as provided by the 200dMA at 51.5c was taken out convincingly today as price closed at 52c, forming a long white candle in the process.

A breakout? It seems to be the case and we could see price test 53c in the near future. I have entered my sell order.

See presentation slides here.

CapitaMalls Asia: Interim dividend declared.

Today, during lunch hour, when I read that the management is declaring an interim dividend of 1.5c per share (XD on 31 August and payable on 16 September), I immediately put in a buy order. I feel that it is a generous payout for a growth company and testament to the fact that it is doing well.

2Q 2011 EPS: 4.2c
1H 2011 EPS: 5.5c
NTA per share: $1.52

See presentation slides here.

Its share price closed at $1.45 today. This is at support. We shall have to wait and see if it would go higher from here. I see gap resistance at $1.55 and if it were to be overcome, we could see $1.64 next. Will my purchase today be rewarding? I wonder.

CapitaMalls to ‘latch on’ to China to secure growth prospects
Thursday, 21 July 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

CapitaMalls Asia Q2 net profit doubles on revaluation gains
Thursday, 21 July 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

NOL: A quick trade.

On 12 July, NOL formed a white candle and I mentioned that I was wary of its reliability as it was formed on relatively low volume. I also used Fibo lines to determine where stronger supports could be found. Then, I added to my long position at these supports. See blog post here.

On 19 July, NOL formed a white hammer and I wondered if price could rise to test $1.45. See blog post here.

For the last three days, I have been in the queue to sell at $1.45. Today, it was done.

With price closing at $1.42, will it be going lower from here? I am not so sure because I see a higher low on the MACD. A positive divergence has formed, it would seem. If $1.45 were to be taken out convincingly, we could see price going higher to $1.56.

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Noble Group, NOL and CapitaMalls Asia.

Just a quick look at some charts:

Noble Group's share price formed a bullish engulfing candle on high volume. If we turn on the MA envelope, we see how it touched the lower boundary and bounced off. Stochastics is in the oversold region and could turn up. Could share price rise to $1.90?

NOL's share price formed a white hammer on high volume. Similarly, Stochastics is in the oversold region and could turn up. Could it rise to $1.45?

CapitaMalls Asia. Connecting the lower highs since 6 October 2010 makes me wonder if we could see the downtrend resistance tested again. Likely to be a long drawn process. Will probably have to see gap closing at $1.55 first.

Good luck.

Capitamall may explore purchase of Ion mall next year, CEO says
Tuesday, 19 July 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Noble Group, Altius to set up oil seed plant in South Africa: Update
Tuesday, 19 July 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

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Sabana REIT: Safe to buy now?

Someone who managed to get some units of Sabana REIT at IPO asked me if it is safe to buy more units of the REIT now? Before the counter announced its first income distribution of 3.04c, I blogged about how I felt Sabana REIT was a great investment then.

Of course, there were nay sayers and people who told me I was wrong. There were also many who got in at the REIT's IPO and were burnt, refusing to look at the REIT anymore. There was also a friend who refused to be vested in the REIT simply because it is Shariah compliant. Now, that really boggles the mind but I suppose there is no accounting for such things.

Before I drift off too much in my discourse, back to the original question. Answer: I don't know if it is safe to buy more units of the REIT now. How's that for an answer? People keep asking me for absolutes and assurances. Well, they will keep getting disappointed.

Fundamentally, Sabana REIT is likely to continue doing well. Its numbers are strong and future income distributions over the next few quarters are likely to remain in line with forecast, everything else remaining constant. Even at today's high of 94.5c/unit, the REIT would still be trading at a discount to its NAV/unit of 98c. Distribution yield is 9.32% at 94.5c/unit with an annual DPU of 8.81c.

Technically, it is clear that Sabana REIT has seen its bottom. Price has been rising and seems to have hit resistance at 94.5c. Does it mean that price would go back down from here? No but if it does, the immediate support is at 93.5c (20dMA). This is followed by 92.5c (50dMA) and 92c (many times tested candlestick support). In the last session, it closed at 93.5c.

On the weekly chart, it is interesting to see that the Bollinger Bands are in the early stages of a squeeze. With unit price rising steadily in the past few weeks and staying above the 20wMA, chances that price could go higher in the coming weeks are fairly good. I have an immediate target of 95.5c, followed by 96.5c in case price moves higher.

A reader asked me for my estimate on the fair value for the REIT, seeing how the fair value I ascribed to First REIT some time back has come to pass. For a smallish REIT such as this, I expect an 8% distribution yield to be fair and that would, in turn, suggest a fair value of $1.10/unit for the REIT. Now, before you get too excited, that's only what I feel the fair value is. It is, by no means, the Gospel truth.

If Sabana REIT were to retest supports at 92.5c and 92c, I would probably be buying more. Good luck to all vested.

Related post:
Sabana REIT: DPU of 3.04c.
First REIT: XR and fair value.

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Noble Group: Caught a falling dagger?

Today, for the first time ever, I became a shareholder of Noble Group. I will confess that I do not understand the business and that going long here is taking on quite a bit of risk. Then, why did I do it? Let me share with you what's on my mind.

The share price of Noble Group is, undoubtedly, in a downtrend. I drew two trendlines, one connecting the lower highs and one connecting the lower lows. A down channel becomes quite clear. I see the channel support at $1.78 and that explains why I put in a buy order at that price, which was filled in the late afternoon today.

That a big black candle formed on the back of heavy volume is very ominous and it would not surprise me if the share price were to sink even lower next week. So, why take the risk of going long now? Why did I not cancel my buy order? After all, it was only filled late in the afternoon.

Well, the fact that the share price tested channel support alone would not have enticed me to enter. The MACD which looks like it has a nice chance of forming a higher low is an important factor too. Therefore, even if the price were to sink lower, as long as the MACD forms a higher low, we would have a positive divergence.

Am I not pre-empting then? Yes, I am and, yes, I agree that disciplined traders should not do that. I have said before that I am not a good trader and this is still true. After all, there is a chance that the MACD could form a lower low which means no positive divergence.

If the share price were to move higher next week, I would use the declining 20dMA as a guide to determine a price for divestment. Price could move higher to test resistance as provided by the trendline as well. I guess it is up to the individual to decide how much risk he is willing to take and how much gain is enough for him.

In the event that the share price were to move lower, I would not rush to average down my price, I would wait and see how things develop. Losing money in a trade is not as bad as losing our cool because of one.

NOL: A white candle.

A white candle formed on NOL's chart today. For most of the day, I saw a black spinning top after its share price gapped down at the start of the day. So, the rather large buy up, after market closed, which pushed up NOL's share price to close 1c higher was somewhat surprising.

However, the white candle was formed on lower volume compared to the previous session's black candle. Share price could possibly have risen due to short covering and not because of an abundance of buyers.

The white candle also did not manage to cover even half the length of the previous day's black candle. So, a white candle is nice but it might not mean that NOL has found its base.

Share price did touch a lower low today at $1.41 while the MACD flattened. This is encouraging. If the MACD should turn up clearly in the next session or two, we would have the positive divergence which I mentioned in my previous blog post on NOL.

Now, the MACD is a lagging indicator which is the case with other momentum oscillators. So, I would use Fibo lines to help suggest where I might find stronger supports for NOL's share price in case of further weakness.

I see the golden ratios at $1.39, $1.375 and $1.36. I could possibly add to my long position at these prices if they were ever tested as the chances of a positive divergence forming are rather good.

CapitaMalls Asia: TA update.

CapitaMalls Asia's share price did not experience the kind of explosive upswing Capitaland's did in the last session. However, it looks promising too in a subdued way as volume was pretty decent as price moved up a bit.

Daily:

 Weekly:

We could see gap closed at $1.55 in time. This would probably also coincide with the declining 50dMA sometime next week. Judging from the highs in the last two rebounds, the declining 100dMA or 20wMA are the ones we should keep an eye on.

In a very strong rebound, we could see price going above the 100dMA and testing the downtrend resistance. Regular readers probably know what I would do in such a case.

NOL: TA update.

NOL has been one big disappointment. So, is this the fault of the counter? Nope. We can only be disappointed if we have expectations and when they are not met. It was a mistake and I will accept it as such.

However, downtrends are rivers of hope. NOL's share price could be overdue for a rebound. This does not mean that I think a rebound is imminent though.

Look at the daily chart and we could see the potential for a double bottom set up or a positive divergence. Wait to see if the recent low of $1.44 would be tested again. If it were to happen on much thinner volume before turning up, it would be good news for bulls. Or if a lower low in price were to be formed with a higher low on the MACD, we would have a positive divergence. In either scenario, we could have the conditions for a rebound which could test resistance provided by the declining 50dMA which coincides with the downtrend resistance.

In a downtrend, sell at resistance.

Capitaland: TA update.

What an amazing run up Capitaland's share price had in the last session. That the run up was accompanied by huge volume is good news for bulls. Short sellers were probably scrambling to cover their positions in the last session, surprised by the buying strength.

Anyone who added to their long positions or initiated one in the last few sessions would be wise to search for exit points, if they have not done so already. Why? Make no mistake, Capitaland's share price is still in a downtrend. Only if it were to break out of resistance provided by the declining 100dMA in a convincing manner could we say that the downtrend is broken.

Resistance provided by the declining 100dMA? Divest at resistance? In a downtrend, that would be conventional wisdom and something I would do.

Golden Agriculture: 68c support.

In my last blog post, I said that chances of a breakdown in price are higher. I have been proven wrong by Mr. Market, once again demonstrating the risky business of guessing Mr. Market's future movements.

Golden Agriculture's share price touched a high of 71.5c on very high volume before closing at 70.5c in the last session.

People ask me if the price could go higher? Well, only Mr. Market knows. What we know is that 68c is now support and 71.5c remains a significant resistance. Overcoming 71.5c could see price going higher and we could even see the gap closed at 76c. With such huge volume in the last session, chances are fair that this could happen. A pull back should find support at 68c.

Good luck to us all.

First REIT: Yield accretive purchase in South Korea.

First REIT has bought a hospital in South Korea. This has a nett property income (NPI) yield of 9% and is a yield accretive purchase. The purchase is most likely going to increase the distribution per unit (DPU) for unitholders since it will be fully funded by debt, increasing its gearing level from 13.8% to 16.4%. Expectations of a higher DPU could account for the recent strength of the REIT's unit price as it closed at 80.5c/unit in the last session.

I generally like the numbers and I also like the fact that the debt is to be a US$ denominated bank loan. Expecting the US$ to continue weakening against Asian currencies in time, I believe this to be a good idea. However, it remains to be seen if the management would be able to manage this single property so far away from S.E. Asia efficiently.

For example, the recent divestment of its single property in Japan by AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT was a prudent move as it could not benefit from any economies of scale having only one property in Japan and it chose to concentrate on its operations in Singapore instead. Could First REIT's latest acquisition be a bad idea in a hasty effort to expand the REIT's portfolio to the targetted $1b value? Time will tell.

Going back to dollars and cents, how much would the DPU be, post acquisition? Based on 9% NPI yield and the purchase price of S$16m, very roughly, I estimate an annual income contribution of $1.4m. The REIT currently has an annual NPI of about $60m. So, by proportion, we could see  >2% increase in DPU. The current DPU of the REIT is about 6.4c per annum. Not much to rave about but nice to have.

My investment in First REIT remains a relatively large one and it is likely to remain that way in the near future.

See presentation slides here.
See announcement here.

This kid can dance!

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Singapore industrial property market picking up!

People tell me to be careful about investing so much in industrial property S-REITs. They think it is going to experience a contraction in demand. I personally do not think so and shared my research here in my blog.

"According to Colliers International, average monthly gross rents for prime factory and warehouse spaces surged between 6 and 7 per cent on-quarter. This was the fastest quarterly growth in three years.

"But rents for all segments of prime factory and warehouse space are still below peak rates in the second half of 2008...

"Chia Siew Chuin, Director of Research & Advisory of Colliers International, said rents and capital values of industrial properties are expected to grow more moderately, in the range of 10 per cent in second half of this year." Read full article here.

For AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, leases representing 4.3% of its rental income are due to expire in the financial year ending March 2012. We could see some positive rental income growth and, therefore, higher DPU, everything else remaining equal. With its properties likely to enjoy another bout of revaluation upwards, we could see its gearing level dropping as well. Good news are in the pipeline, it would seem.

Good luck to fellow unitholders.

Related posts:
Higher rents to benefit industrial properties S-REITs.
Industrial rent forecasts strongest for Singapore.

Worst ever NDP song!

Legal issues aside, this song is really mindless.

We are celebrating National Day! We are suppose to celebrate Singapore's achievements and vision for the future!

How does this "Fun Pack Song" fit into the picture? It is demeaning! The organising committee should be taken to task! Definitely in bad taste.

Haresh Sharma, this is a joke!

I want Newater and I want a cold drink
You and me, let's share a bit
I want a biscuit and I want a sweet
You and me, let's share this treat

Puke nation!

See the video here:
http://youtu.be/aoExTn7PC2E

Hyflux secures funds of S$150m.

The Tuaspring desalination plant is part of a project expected to cost S$890 million, which the firm said it is "on track" to secure funds for this second tranche.

More fund raising exercises on the way, I think.

Related posts:
Hyflux: 6% perpetual Class A preference shares.
Hyflux: $800 million bridge loan.

Male cheerleader brings it on!

Thoroughly entertaining and somewhat disarming!

Golden Agriculture: FA and TA.

I retain a very small long position in Golden Agriculture. The price of crude palm oil (CPO) has made a new low for 2011, closing at RM3,040.

"Inventories are likely to accumulate in the coming months, unless prices fall to around MYR2,700-MYR2,800/ton, levels that might spur strong physical demand for the commodity and prompt traders to buy on dips, said a trading executive in Kuala Lumpur...

"June output is expected to rise 7%-10%, from 1.74 million tons the previous month, and end-June stocks could rise by as much as 24% to 2.38 million tons." Dow Jones Newswires, July 05, 2011 07:17 ET (11:17 GMT).

The longer term fundamentals, given the strong and growing demand for the vegetable oil, are still intact. However, short term weakness could present rather strong downward pressure on prices. Therefore, I am exercising caution and not adding to my long position in Golden Agriculture. This decision is also informed by technical analysis.

If we look at Golden Agriculture's daily chart, the symmetrical triangle is quite obvious. Two thirds to its apex, we could see a movement breaking the triangle in the near future. Up or down? With price finding it hard to recapture support provided by the 200dMA, the bias is towards the downside. With the ADX indicating a lack of trend, look to the Stochastics for clues. It is turning down from the border of the overbought region. Some softness in the counter's share price would not be surprising.

A look at the weekly chart shows that the Stochastics has broken support. A weakened momentum is obvious. If price were to break the symmetrical triangle to the downside, we could see a test of support provided by the 100wMA. 61c? Could happen.

Long holders could be walking on thin ice here. Good luck.


Related post:
Golden Agriculture: Strong resistance.