CapitaMalls Asia: Bought more at 161.8% Fibo line.

Just two sessions ago, I bought shares of CapitaMalls Asia at $1.335. Then, I commented on the very high volume behind the long black candle and wondered if price could go lower.

I used Fibo lines to estimate where the stronger supports would be in case of further selling and $1.265 is where the 161.8% Fibo line approximates.

My overnight buy order at $1.265 was filled this morning as price gapped down following the drastic overnight sell off in the US and European stock markets.

$1.265 is beyond the lower boundary of the MA envelope and if volume remains relatively low at the end of the day, things would look more benign.

Panic and sell now? No.

A sea of red! Have a plan and execute it!

US stock market plunged 5% overnight. European markets plunged overnight. The Singapore market opened some 100 points lower. Such ferocity in selling, I have not seen in some time.

Panic is palpable. Fear can be petrifying. However, if we have a plan, fear could be less so.

My plan is to continue investing for income and I like AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and Sabana REIT.

Today, I bought more units of Sabana REIT at 92c. Looking at the chart, 92c should be a natural support level but we have to see how it closes this evening.

If it is unable to close above 92c this evening, we could see price going lower to test 91c and 90c for support. I would buy more then. Good luck.

HPH Trust: 2011 Interim Financial Results.

On and off, I would look at HPH Trust because there seems to be so much interest in this business trust from readers. Anyway, as I invest primarily for income these days, HPH Trust fits into my strategy but is it attractive enough for me?

Before I continue, I will say that  I do not like the fact that it is denominated in a foreign currency and in US$ to boot. On my investment journey, I have only once bought a non S$ denominated stock, TCIL, and that was in HK$. It is a bit messy having to take into consideration exchange rates.

These days, with the S$ strengthening against the US$, chances of exchange rate losses are even higher. So, for me to be strongly interested in HPH Trust, there must be a bigger margin of safety. This, fundamentally, would take the form of a higher distribution yield at the most basic level.

HPH Trust released 2011 Interim Financial Results recently and declared a DPU of HK 14.3cents. It has a NAV/unit of HK$ 7.80.

Closing price on 3 August was US 73.5cents.

Now, isn't this one confusing counter? We have to contend with US$ and HK$. Of course, being in Singapore, we have to convert everything to S$. Wah, I am getting a bit giddy already!

US$1.00 = S$1.174
HK$1.00 = S$ 0.15056
(Source: UOB, 4 August 2011)

Unit price:
US 73.5cents = S$ 0.853

DPU:
HK$ 0.143 = S$ 0.0215

Well, let us see if HPH Trust is able to deliver the full year DPU of US 5.9c as per their forecast. This would be a DPU of S$ 0.0693 or a distribution yield of 8.12% at the unit price of US 73.5c.

If we were to believe that HPH Trust would deliver as per forecast, I would not enter at the current price either. Why? Well, I can get more than 9% distribution yield from Sabana REIT and AIMS AMP Capital Industrial Trust without all the messy foreign exchange calculations now anyway. A 8.12% yield from HPH Trust does not even come close.

Then, fundamentally, would I ever be interested in HPH Trust? If it were to offer a 10% distribution yield, why not? That would give me the larger margin of safety I am looking for. Everything else remaining equal, it would mean a unit price of US 59c before I get my feet wet. Wishful thinking? Well, I shall wait and see.

See financial statement here.
Added (1 Feb 17):

http://www.hphtrust.com/distribution.html