2016 full year passive income from non-REITs (Part 1).

During an "Evening with AK and friends", someone asked if I was going to sell my stocks as market guru Hu Li Yang was expecting a stock market crash. I said we should stay invested as the market was still awashed in liquidity and money will go to where it is treated best. See: Evening with AK and friends.



So, what did I do in 2H 2016 in the non-REITs space? I made various purchases but, mostly, I was buying DBS shares. Besides DBS, I also bought some shares of OUE Limited, PREH, Wilmar, OCBC, Breadtalk and Starhub.

(I am impressed by DBS' cost management. Their cost to income ratio keeps declining.)

The narrative for investing in OCBC was similar to the one for DBS. Although all three local banks' stocks looked cheap to me, my preference was for DBS because of the perceived cheaper valuation.


The reason for me putting some money in OCBC's stock was mostly because my long position in DBS grew so big (and I do mean BIG) that it was prudent for me to step on the brakes. 




Using a strategy I employ frequently for stocks which I am highly confident in, my relatively large position in DBS included both a core position for income as well as a trading position.

Why not UOB? 


Well, I think UOB has been a bit laid back. I am not saying that it is a bad thing, mind you, but its growth story seems less exciting.

Of course, some might say that DBS and OCBC have been more "adventurous" but I like to think that they are more enterprising.

I feel that growing their wealth management business more aggressively will continue to set them apart from UOB as that business contributes more and more to their earnings.

Next, Wilmar. I continue to like Wilmar's business strategy and their very impressive scale of operations. It is an amazingly complex business and, to be quite honest, I have no way to analyse most of its operations.

However, when Mr. Kuok thinks their shares are cheap and bought more at $3.00 a share, that was a pretty clear signal to me. At that price, we would also be buying at around its NAV which seems conservative.

Source: RHB.

Having accumulated a rather significant long position in Wilmar in recent years, I am quite happy to wait while being paid to do so.

Now, for OUE Limited. I blogged about my rationale for increasing exposure to OUE Limited when I shared my numbers for 1H 2016 (see related post #1). Back then, I added at $1.51 a share. In 2H 2016, I added more at $1.53 a share.

Twin Peaks.

My decision to increase exposure was mostly driven by the even larger discount to NAV from the time I initiated a long position. 

There is much value in OUE Limited but waiting for value to be unlocked requires a lot of patience. Well, remember, a wise man did say before that the big money is in the waiting.

Along similar line of reasoning, I also added to my investment in PREH at 80c a share a few days ago. This is the lowest price I have ever paid for PREH. The last time I bought any PREH shares was more than a year ago. 

It is interesting to me that Mr. Ron Sim, Mr. Pua S.G. and Mr. Kuok K.H. have been increasing their stakes in PREH on price weakness. 

PREH is an asset play but it is also a growth story. It is not for the faint hearted.

PREH

As for Breadtalk, I have a more recent blog post on my decision to initiate a position. I compared it to Old Chang Kee and QAF Limited, both of which I have been a shareholder of for many years. 

If you are interested to know why I had a change of heart and decided to initiate a smallish long position in Breadtalk, go to the related posts at the end of this blog post (see related post #2).

Starhub. In June last year, when I did a technical analysis for Starhub, I said:

"The widening of the Bollinger Bands indicates increased volatility. The OBV shows selling pressure. The MACD is declining and shows no sign of a positive divergence. These are all on the weekly chart which suggests that continuing weakness in the longer term should not surprise us." Read blog post: here.


We saw Starhub's stock price sinking and I nibbled  again in late November. I feel that Mr. Market is right to be concerned but might be overly pessimistic about Starhub's prospects with the introduction of a 4th telco.

There is plenty of speculation now but, to be realistic, it will take time for the new entrant (which is expected to enter the market in 2018) to gain traction and it remains to be seen how successful it will be.




Back in June 2015, I also said that SPH and Starhub were similar:

"They could see earnings come under pressure for different reasons but that makes them similar too as the challenges are very real.... I would like to have some buffer in terms of dividend yield buying into SPH and Starhub because I am investing in them primarily for income and not growth." Read blog post: here.

I believe I am getting a much thicker cushion buying Starhub at under $2.80 a share and that was what I did.

As for SPH, let me share here a recent conversation with a reader:

I have been a SPH shareholder for many years and I am happy enough to be paid while I wait.
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As this turned out to be a very long blog post, I chopped it up into two parts. Read Part 2: HERE.
Related posts:

1. 1H 2016 income from non-REITs.

2. Breadtalk, OCK and QAF.

3. Made $1m investing for income.
4. 2016 FY income from S-REITs.

$500,000 stuck in a bad commercial space investment! (UPDATED)

UPDATED:
It is an increasingly common sight these days in the heartlands: 

Spanking new mixed-use developments with rows and rows of empty shop spaces plastered with posters and banners screaming “For Rent” or “For Sale”. 

From Kensington Square along Upper Paya Lebar Road and Novena Regency to The Midtown @ Hougang and MacPherson Mall, to name a few...
Source: TODAY




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READER:

Hello AK, 

I have a question regarding real estate that I would like to ask you. 

I am a responsible investor and does my own homework before making any investment, so I will not make you responsible for any decisions I make. 

I have it down here in writing so you can have a peace of mind when you reply to my email. 

I am a stock investor which means I am not familiar with real estate in Singapore. 

I know that you have invested in real estate before, therefore, I would like to seek you help for an issue. 

My father made some money speculating on real estates in the past. 

So as most speculators who have made money speculating on real estate, my father made the mistake of not doing enough homework, not filtering out market noise (mostly the real estate agents), thinking that property prices will go up forever and not position sizing. 

My father laid out about (half a million dollars) on a shop unit, confident that the price of the shop will appreciate greatly in the future. 

He bought it in 2010 or 2011, before the building was constructed. 

Ever since, he has not been able to rent his shop out for rental. 70% to 80% of the shops in the building is vacant since day 1. 

My father has been paying the monthly management fee (about $700/month), annual property tax (no idea how much) and not to mentioned the initial stamp duties and other fees associated with purchasing a property in Singapore. 

Obviously, my father has not been able to find a buyer, not even if he sells it at a loss. 

The size of the shop is about 3m in length and 5m deep. 

My father laid out about half of his cash in this property and another half in another property (this has rental income, so it's fine. 

However, if you add the fees and taxes of both properties, my father hardly makes any money.). 

So my father has been very cash strapped (Situation getting more dire with every month, to be honest). 

Unfortunately, my father made the purchases before I knew anything about investments (not like he will listen to me though).

- Nobody wants to buy/rent the shop

- Monthly management fee ($700+/ month) (Management 很好赚，no AEI or anything, but collects $700+ a month)

- Annual property taxes

- High entry price (my father estimated the market prices of his shop has decreased about 20%)

So my question is, do you have any recommendations as on what can be our next step? 

Any ways to get rid of the property or anything that we can do cut/reduce the losses?

It is quite a sticky situation but thanks in advance. 

Taken from a website 
promoting the mall to investors.

AK says:
Remember what you say here hor. 

Indemnity form signed. ;)

OK, fact is nobody knows for sure what the future might bring. 

What we know for sure is the now and the present. 

The only people who seem to know (the future) for sure are the property agents especially when they want to sell us something. ;p






If we had bought into a piece of property thinking or hoping that the price will go up in future, we are more speculators than investors. 

Remember my blog post on the two questions we should ask if we are speculating in properties?

It is not only whether the property offers value for money. 

We should also ask if we have deep pockets. (See related post #2.)





It seems to me that your dad does not have deep pockets and he is suffering from a double whammy because the property wasn't value for money.

I have a friend in a similar situation and it is causing a serious strain on his family's finances. 

I found out recently when I (being kaypoh) asked him why he seemed so cash strapped when his job pays reasonably well. 






He bought a property and it is not generating cash flow. 

Instead of an asset, he got a liability.

I told him he would be better off disposing it.

"What if the price goes up in future?"

Alamak. 

I told him I don't know what is going to happen in future but I see what the situation is doing to him now. 





Fortunately, his wife agreed that it would be best to dispose of the "asset" even at a loss.

Don't bite off more than we can chew. 

If we bit off more than we can chew, we would do well to spit it out or else we might choke. 

Of course, some handle choking better than others. 

Quite a few could choke to death.

Best wishes,
AK





P.S. The property which the reader's dad bought is not in Alexandra Mall. 

It is in another part of Singapore. 

Not revealing the location of the property in question, I am just using Alexandra Mall as an example. 

Yes, there are quite a few of these "promising" malls which were marketed to retail investors in Singapore in recent years.





Related posts:
1. Nobody cares more about our money...
2. Two questions we should ask...
3. Disastrous investments in property...