CapitaMalls Asia: To buy on possible weakness.

There is a rather obvious negative divergence between price and the MACD. Higher price was achieved with a lower high on the MACD recently. So, we should not be surprised if the share price should decline in the near future as positive momentum in the short term weakens.

However, look at the OBV. There is no sign of smart money retreating as price rose. In fact, it is scaling higher. This suggests that smart money could use any price weakness as an opportunity to buy.

Indeed, if we look at the weekly chart, there is no sign of a negative divergence. The MACD is rising higher into positive territory. The longer term technicals definitely have a bullish bias.

However, with the share price nearing the declining 100w MA which is at $1.71 now, the near term weakness is not unreasonable. The 100w MA is expected to provide some strong resistance.

With the OBV rising, any pull back in price to supports is likely to be a buying opportunity. The pull back should be on the back of declining volume to make the case for buying more compelling.

Of course, the counter could decide to do a correction using time instead. That would be most annoying but that is Mr. Market.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Going XD on 23 April.

Affordability of housing in Singapore.

Hot on the heels of my last blog post on property prices in Singapore and whether more cooling measures are on the way, I came across an article in TODAY which reported that HDB slammed PropertyGuru for inaccurately reporting that it is more affordable to buy a private property than a resale HDB flat.

I am not really interested in their squabbles since it has no bearing on my life. 

However, I am interested in the last three paragraphs of the article, especially the last two which should put to rest any doubt about the government's intention of driving down the prices of residential property in Singapore.

"One cannot deny the fact that in the last five years, income has not increased at the same rate as property prices," he (PropNex Realty chief executive Mohamed Ismail) said. "However, all property prices are subject to cycles and a correction is likely when the affordability ratio widens."

The HDB felt the rise in HDB resale and private property prices in recent years "is not sustainable". 

"That is why the Government has been intervening with both supply and demand measures, in order to correct the imbalance," said the HDB. "The market has moderated considerably."

With all newly-wed first-timers "largely assured" of access to a new flat, the HDB said it would focus on helping second-timers this year. "As we assist second-timers in getting a new HDB flat, the impact will be felt in the HDB resale market," added the HDB. 

"Meanwhile, URA (Urban Redevelopment Authority) will continue to push out land supply for new private property development, to match the demand. The affordability of housing in Singapore should further improve in the months ahead."

Source: TODAY, 24 March 2012.
PropertyGuru report misleading: HDB.

Related post:
More cooling measures on the way?

-->

Weekend Comment Mar 23: Flight to REITs as volatility returns
Friday, 23 March 2012

© 2012 - The Edge Singapore

-->

Singapore tightens rules for developers
Wednesday, 18 April 2012

© 2012 - The Edge Singapore

More cooling measures on the way?

A friend told me that the middle class in Singapore is rich and they have plenty of money for investment. That is probably just a guess. So, I would also hazard a guess to say that many are probably leveraged up to invest in properties and that they are not all cash rich per se.

Notice how it is new launches which are doing well? This is evident in January and Februarys' sales figures. The resale market has gone very quiet. Why? Obviously, one reason is the initial financial outlay is smaller for new launches and payments are made progressively. If all of these buyers are really cash rich, they would be more active in the resale market because, frankly, right now, many times, there is better value in the resale market and these investors would also be able to benefit from rental income right away.

I believe that a big wave of more marginal investors will get hit when the oversupply situation becomes increasingly apparent in residential and commercial properties. Yes, commercial properties too. Rentals have been declining and will probably continue to decline for some time as more new space becomes available.

People leveraging up and buying newly launched properties in anticipation of bigger returns 3 or 4 years down the road when the properties get their TOPs are playing a very risky game. It takes time for stock of real estate to build up and just like arsenic which kills the victim slowly over time, oversupply which builds up over months and years might catch some people unaware.

Of course, there is the argument that unless there is a big external shock, property prices in Singapore will stay resilient. Do we feel that the eurozone's problems are truly over? Do we feel that China's economy is iron clad? Is there no chance of a big external shock taking place? With prices having doubled or more in the last decade and up by 50% or more in the last three years alone, a big external shock could produce a real shocker of a price fall.

We also have people like CDL's Mr. Kwek and CPL's Mr. Liew who say that they have very strong balance sheets and that they do not have to slash prices to move stock. However, these are public listed companies. They have to account to shareholders. Sit on unproductive stock or rent them out upon completion in an environment of weakening rentals even if they are 99 years leasehold properties? I think not.

Also, do not underestimate the political will of the PAP government to reign in the prices of residential properties to make them more affordable. This is also why there is a requirement for developers to sell out any project within a 5 year period from the time they acquired the land or else be slapped with an additional stamp duty. If the developers play punk, expect additional measures from the government.

There has been complaints aplenty regarding the rising cost of doing business in Singapore and a big complaint is that of rental. Everyone was surprised when the government recently said that they would keep an eye on REITs to make sure that they are not driving up rentals in any anti-competitive manner. Cooling measures for industrial and commercial properties on the way, perhaps?

-----------------

Non-landed home prices in the secondary property market in Singapore continued to soften in the first quarter of 2012, with those in the prime districts 9, 10 and 11 faring worst.

According to a report by DTZ Research, resale prices of luxury condominiums and freehold condominiums in the prime districts fell by 0.8 per cent and 0.7 per cent respectively.

Resale prices of leasehold condominiums in the suburban areas registered a slight quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.3 per cent, a moderation from the 1.0 per cent growth in Q4 2011.

Transaction of non-landed homes also slowed to about 470 units per month over January and February. This was also lower than the monthly average of about 1,400 units in 2011.

Source: CNA, 21 March 2012.

Related posts:
1. Leverage up and buy investment properties now?
2. Selling a private property just got harder.

Office S-REITs VS. Industrial S-REITs (4).

For some time now, I have been saying it is better to be vested in industrial S-REITs rather than office S-REITs. My research supports this idea.

Now, with the government imposing more cooling measures on residential properties, many investors turned their attention to industrial and commercial properties instead. This has hastened the rising prices of such properties.

Indeed, when a relative of mine called to enquire about Low Keng Huat's Paya Lebar Square, she was told that a modest office unit would set her back by $2,000 psf and the project was almost sold out!

Is it a good idea to pay top dollar to invest in commercial properties in Singapore now?

Over 2H11, we saw office rents peak as Grade A rents declined 0.5% QoQ in 4Q11 while Grade B rents fell by 0.4%. We expect further rental dips in FY12 and believe, from our channel checks, that Grade A rents has already fallen 3-5% QoQ in 1Q12. Going forward, we think office capital values could come under pressure with declining rentals (and) we now forecast office rentals to fall 10-15% in FY12.

Industrial REITs are likely to continue to post healthy YoY growth in distributable income and DPUs for the financial quarter ending 31 Mar, driven by completion of acquisitions, sound occupancy rates and possibly positive rental reversions. Four industrial REITs will also be concluding their financial years. We believe the REITs may likely experience revaluation gains in their portfolios.

Source: OCBC Research.

Related post:
Office S-REITs VS. Industrial S-REITs (3).

Yongnam: Immediate support at 25c.

Yongnam's share price has been rather stable. As a counter's share price sees a reduction in volatility, Bollinger Bands would start to narrow and "squeeze".  The beginning of such a squeeze is being observed here.

Daily chart.

A trading strategy using Bollinger Bands is to look out for an oncoming squeeze. This could be the precursor of an impending surge in price.

Couple this observation with how the rising 50dMA seems capable of acting as support in this case, there is a chance of Yongnam's share price going higher in time. The 50dMA also coincides with a trendline support which connects the lows of mid December 2011, February 2012 and March 2012.

Volume has dwindled while the OBV has flatlined. Not much activity either way. Who would blink first? The bulls or the bears?

Yongnam's fundamentals are strong and technically, there is support for its share price at 25c.

The counter should also be trading CD come end of the month. The proposed dividend is 1c per share.

However, if support at 25c should break, Yongnam's share price could fall to 24c, a longer term support.

Weekly chart.

Related post:
Yongnam: FY 2011 results.

Murdoch University Double Major Degree programmes.

Kaplan Higher Education Institute, one of Singapore’s preferred private education institutions is partnering Murdoch University from Australia to bring in the most extensive courses in South East Asia!

This partnership brings to Singapore a wide variety of Double Major Degree programmes including those that have previously never been offered in any local university - Sports, Security, and Environment-related courses.

Murdoch University is committed to innovation and quality higher education that can be applied on a global level. Murdoch University has an outstanding reputation as an institution that provides students with a quality education and recognised academic standing within an engaging and caring environment.

Are you interested in the next step on a path of lifelong learning?

Find out more about Murdoch University: here.

Dettol - Flippy & Hoofy's Clean Quest!

Flippy and Hoofy’s Clean Quest Contest is a Facebook game launched by Dettol in conjunction with the release of the limited edition Dettol No-Touch Hand Wash featuring two cute cartoon character – Flippy the Penguin & Hoofy the Zerba.

Play the game and stand to win an iPad: here.

Capitaland: Technical analysis can be simple.

Some readers asked me if I could teach them technical analysis. I have always declined, saying that it is easy enough to pick up. There are many good books out there and many good websites where one could pick up technical analysis.

Technical analysis can be quite simple. For example, this weekly chart for Capitaland shows the MACD rising in a wavelike pattern into positive territory. This means that longer term momentum has turned positive. It is also quite clear that price action broke out of a base formation and has seen a reversal in trend.

Now, does technical analysis tell us if the price would continue to rise or fall? I would be hesitant to say "yes". Technical analysis shows us resistance and supports. It shows us the probability of something happening but never certainty.

In this instance, technical analysis tells us that there is probably resistance at $3.25 in the event that the share price continues to rise. It also tells us that immediate support is probably at $2.75 in case of a pull back. $2.75 is the top of a double bottom formation and it is also where the 50w MA has flatlined. It is also where the rising 20w MA could form a golden cross with the 50w MA in the coming weeks.

Anyone who is thinking of going long would probably be happy doing so in case of a pull back to $2.75 thereabouts while anyone thinking of selling could do so at $3.25. Simple enough? Just don't think of technical analysis as the Holy Grail.

CapitaMalls Asia: Going XD on 23 April.

CapitaMalls Asia is paying 1.5c dividend per share on 9 May. It will go XD on 23 April.

What is termed as a true golden cross is going to transpire in the daily chart. This is when the 100d MA forms a bullish crossover with the 200d MA. This is usually an indication that the downtrend is well and truly behind us and any pull back to support is an opportunity to add to or initiate long positions.

A pull back could well happen. The rising price in recent session has not been accompanied by higher volumes. Indeed, the MACD might see a lower high forming, signalling a weakening positive momentum. In fact, a negative divergence could form.

We could see price pulling back initially to the support provided by the 20d MA at $1.56 and perhaps even $1.455. However, bear in mind that in rather bullish circumstances, we could see price moving sideways, doing a correction using time. In an uptrend, a sideway movement is more bullish than bearish.

A successful breakout would see the first upside target at $1.83.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Net profit up 42.6%.

Sabana REIT: Resistance to watch.

One month ago, I mentioned that Sabana REIT's unit price saw higher lows formed since August 2011 and that it was repeatedly testing gap resistance at 91c and 91.5c. I wondered then whether its unit price could break resistance to go higher. It did, going on to break resistance at 93.5c, and, in the last few sessions, tested resistance at 95c. It ended the day at 96c a unit with a massive buy up after market closed today.

Sabana REIT is my largest investment for passive income and what I have now is part of my core investment for passive income. So, it is unlikely that I would sell unless its unit price becomes very much over valued. Keeping the status quo, Sabana REIT would generate approximately 38% of my passive income from S-REITs alone this year.

I am expecting a higher DPU in the next quarter as contributions from acquisitions made in recent months as well as savings from lower cost of funding for newer loans kick in.

Technically, if the bullish momentum continues, 99.5c could be the next level to be tested in time.

At 99.5c, its distribution yield is still a very attractive 8.84%. I still feel that a fair value for the REIT's units is closer to $1.10 per unit which would see its distribution yield compressing to 8%.

Related post:
Sabana REIT: 4Q 2011 results.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: How much higher?

People are waking up to the stronger numbers as well as the attractive and potentially growing income streams of AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT.

It is interesting also to note that some analysts are reporting that the REIT has not one but two strong sponsors. In the distant past, few would even talk about the REIT in a positive light, much less the sponsors. This shows how durable the negativities created by the recapitalisation of the former MI-REIT were.

Personally, on hindsight, I am thankful for the negativities which made people avoid the REIT as it allowed me to accumulate more units of the REIT at prices way below its fair value.

The REIT is currently my second largest investment and is an important passive income generator for me. Keeping the status quo, it is expected to generate some 32% of my total passive income from S-REITs alone this year. Will I keep the status quo?

My current investment in the REIT forms part of my core investment for passive income. It is not for trading. Unless its unit price rises significantly, I am likely to keep the status quo.

Although fundamentally attractive, we can only wait and see how much higher Mr. Market is willing to pay for the REIT's units. $1.10 is the resistance to watch. Overcoming this convincingly could see $1.125 and $1.15 tested next.

Related post:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 3Q FY 2012.

First REIT: To sell or not to sell?

I have received questions from readers and friends if they should sell their units in First REIT given its stellar performance of late. I can't really advise if they should sell or hold on to their investments. I am not qualified to give advisories and neither do I have the inclination to do so.

I would say the following:

Fundamentally, First REIT is rock solid. One should, however, remember that its bumper income distributions in the last two quarters were due to contribution from the sale of its Adam Road property. If this contribution were removed, we are more likely to see a DPU of 1.6c per quarter. This means an annualised DPU of 6.4c. At today's high of 87c per unit, that would be a base distribution yield of 7.35%. Its larger peer, Parkway Life REIT, has a distribution yield of about 5.26% at a unit price of $1.825.

Technically, First REIT's unit price is continuing its march higher on strong volumes. There is vigorous accumulation going on if the OBV is anything to go by and although price action looks like it is becoming parabolic, the bullish momentum could push price higher to test 88c or even 89c. However, fatigue would very likely set in and a pull back to support at 82c could take place in time.

My remaining investment in First REIT is part of a core investment for passive income. It is unlikely that I would sell my remaining position. If I were trading First REIT, however, 87c to 89c would seem like very attractive prices for divestment. There, I have said it.

Related post:
First REIT: FY2011 results.

Beauty & the Beast, the 3D experience.

Walt Disney Animation Studios’ magical classic “Beauty and the Beast” returns to the big screen in Disney Digital 3D™, introducing a whole new generation to the Disney classic with stunning new 3D imagery.

The film captures the fantastic journey of Belle (voice of Paige O’Hara), a bright and beautiful young woman who’s taken prisoner by a hideous beast (voice of Robby Benson) in his castle.

Despite her precarious situation, Belle befriends the castle’s enchanted staff—a teapot, a candelabra and a mantel clock, among others—and ultimately learns to see beneath the Beast’s exterior to discover the heart and soul of a prince.

Featuring unforgettable music by Howard Ashman and Alan Menken, and an enormously talented vocal ensemble, “Beauty and the Beast” was the first animated feature to receive a Best Picture nomination from the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences and is also the first animated feature to cross the $100 million plateau in its initial release.

For trailers and more, visit Disney Studios Singapore: here.

China Minzhong: Initiated long position.

Anyone who is a follower of Jim Rogers would know that he is always asking people to become farmers and he is quite serious. Jim is of the opinion that farm incomes will increase exponentially in the next few decades. This stems partially from his belief that we should be invested in real assets like agricultural commodities which would retain their value in the face of heightened inflation around the world.

Recently, I have been looking at China Minzhong, a company which the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) has a 17% stake in. Prudential reduced its stake to less than 5% while Templeton increased its stake to above 5%.

There is an abundance of research which has been done on China Minzhong and it is mostly good. Here are links to some analyses:

1. CIMB (14 Feb 2012)
2. Kim Eng (14 Feb 2012)

China Minzhong has made some large capital expenditure last year and it would take some time to show positive results. The longer term picture looks promising and buying on weakness could be rewarding for anyone who takes a longer term perspective here.

See slides presentation dated 13 Feb 2012: here.

1. Net income margin is consistently above 25%.
2. NAV per share: RMB 5.70 (approximately S$ 1.14)
3. Net gearing ratio: 0.11x
4. Current ratio: 2.7x
5. Half year EPS: RMB 0.48 (approximately S$0.096)

Expectations are for second half of its financial year to show higher EPS.

Technically, China Minzhong's share price emerged from a terribly persistent downtrend at the start of the new year. It then took a while to overcome resistance provided by the 100dMA before hitting a road block set by the 200dMA. It is now supported by the 50dMA and if that goes, we could see a retreat to the 100dMA which is currently at 93c.

Notice that volume has been higher on white candle days and lower on black candle days in recent sessions. Volume seems to be reducing as price pulled back. Consolidation could continue for a while more as weaker holders are shaken out.

I have initiated a long position today at 98.5c. If its share price were to weaken to 93c, I would probably add to my position. 93c is, in my opinion, a very important support if it should be tested. If it should break, we could see price retreating to test the lows of 2011 with 84c as an immediate target.

Perpetual bonds: Good or bad? (Read comments too.)

With interest rates so low these days, one would not be wrong to wonder why are companies and even a REIT issuing perpetual bonds to raise funds with coupons of up to 7%. To a layman like me with very rudimentary understanding of economics, it could be one of two reasons:

1. The business or REIT concerned is not able to get loans because its business is too risky.

2. The amount of liquidity available in the banking system is drying up.

I do not have the necessary knowledge to do an in depth analysis on the reasons why. Indeed, I do not have the inclination as well. I am more interested in how these bonds might benefit me as an investor.

Generally, investors want to be correctly compensated for the risks they are asked to undertake. So, the riskier the investment, the higher the expected compensation. Otherwise, it is a no go.

However, with imperfect knowledge, investors sometimes get the shorter end of the stick. There are examples aplenty of investments gone sour. With the benefit of hindsight, investors learn to avoid similar experience in future or we hope to anyway.

When something new comes along, relying on past experience becomes impossible. Indeed, investors are sometimes misled through creative labelling. Remember the "mini bonds"? The resulting losses were in no way mini.

Now we have "perpetual bonds". What are these?

Perpetual bonds are bonds with no maturity date and investors are not allowed redemption. A glaring disadvantage of such an instrument is the lack of liquidity. Therefore, people with very deep pockets who would never be in an urgent need of cash are more suitable investors.

No matter the depth of one's pockets, however, there is a universal problem of inflation. With inflation in Singapore at more than 5%, if one should park one's money in a perpetual bond that yields 5% or less, it does not make much sense. Add this to the lack of liquidity of such an instrument, more or less, it amounts to an almost complete loss of control over one's dwindling wealth. Ouch.

Perpetual bonds are a no go for me. However, if the companies and REITs I am vested in should issue perpetual bonds to fund activities which would grow EPS or DPU, I would raise both hands in support.

Like anything in life, whether something is good or bad depends on where one stands.


UPDATES:

The absence of a maturity date means perpetuals usually offer higher yields than bonds with one. Companies are taking advantage of Singapore accounting rules that count the notes as equity and a tax law that exempts interest payments.

The lack of a perpetual's maturity date, in spite of the incentive to redeem at the first call, allows issuers to treat that debt as equity in their books. That reduces the companies' leverage even as interest payments increase.

"The impact on the market is hard to judge" if any issuers choose not to repay, said Dilip Parameswaran, the Hong Kong-based head of Asia Investment Advisors Ltd. "The Singapore dollar market is small and dominated by domestic institutional and retail investors. They may have invested based on an expectation of call, and may be disappointed if the bonds are not called."

As companies consider the cost of refinancing, he said, "if the secondary yields are higher than the step-up coupon, then it makes no sense for the company to call the perpetual."

Source: http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/banking-finance/singapore-perpetual-bond-investors-hope-never-means-three-years


AK says:

What we want to be wary of is also what rising interest rates would do to bond prices. As interest rates rise, bond prices fall. That is the relationship.

For bonds with maturity dates, we just have to hold to maturity and hope that the issuer does not default. We would get back our capital at maturity. With perpetual bonds, there is no maturity date.


Related posts:
1.  Dr Marc Faber: How not to lose money?
2.  To protect our wealth, we have to take risk.

Ben & Jerry's Free Cone Day!

To thank Singaporeans for making the world a fairer place and for their support of Ben & Jerry’s, we’re giving away free ice-cream on Free Cone Day!

Small, unnoticed, random acts of fairness make this world a better place.

We have captured some Singaporeans at their best, doing their small deeds to make the world a better place for that single person.

See who these people are and vote for the one that you think has done his or her Random Act of Fairness.

Get free ice-cream on Free Cone Day: here.

Leverage up and buy investment properties now?

UPDATE (December 2016):
I sounded the alarm 4 years ago.

"Many who bought their properties three to four years ago are settling for rents that don't cover their mortgage payment..."
Mortgagee listings this year expected to reach or surpass the 237 recorded in 2015, which exceeded the 236 in 2008 during the global financial crisis. A mortgagee's sale occurs when an owner defaults on the mortgage.
Source:
http://www.straitstimes.com/business/property/more-properties-could-be-up-for-auction-if-interest-rates-bite (8 Dec 16)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

8 March 2012
Today, I stumbled upon an interesting if disturbing bit of information. "Online loan" is the hottest in a list of keywords being searched for in Yahoo Singapore! For whatever reasons, Singaporeans are leveraging up or looking to it, it seems.

With the economy almost at full employment, it is harder to imagine people borrowing because they are in dire straits. Then why? They could be borrowing to fund purchases of consumption goods or to put into investments.

I also continue to read articles and see advertisements telling people how they could own real estate with little or no cash. How is this possible?

The low interest rate environment is here to stay for the next couple of years, with what is happening in the USA, Eurozone and Japan. As Dr. Marc Faber said, a low interest rate environment encourages people to take risks. Is this a bad thing?

I have been told by many that a judicious amount of leveraging could magnify the returns from my investments.

So, with zero gearing in my personal balance sheet now, am I a stick in the mud when it comes to leveraging?

I do understand the benefits of leveraging and, indeed, without it, I would not have been able to make money from real estate investments. However, I would leverage sparingly and would try not to take the biggest possible loan or the longest repayment period, given a choice.

On the other hand, savvy investors who know how to exploit low interest rates would probably benefit a lot more. The fear is always in overdoing it. Overdoing it?

Yes, too much of a good thing is probably bad. I am talking about overleveraging, of course.

A simple understanding of overleveraging is a situation when people are borrowing money, hoping to make money but do not have enough capital assets to cover any likely future losses.

The Singapore government is prudent in capping the loan to value limit at 60% for a second mortgage. In the event of a crash in the property market, it is unlikely that property values would decline by more than 40%.

However, some people have purportedly found ways of going around this ruling. Indeed, from their claims, they have probably found ways around any ruling. If we were to do a search online, we would find websites and blogs with such claims. To find out more, however, we would have to pay to attend related seminars.

I would caution that there are reasons for why the cooling measures are here. Whether the reasons are good or not would depend on where we stand.

However, it is obvious to me that the government is sending a clear message that they want property prices in Singapore to lower in the next couple of years, not that they need to do much more to achieve this.

Given the rising vacancy and lowering rentals in the last few months, how would things look when record numbers of condominums are completed over the next few years?

Over the next 2-3 years, supply of completed new units is set to surge as the government’s current efforts to address the undersupplied HDB and DBSS markets bear fruit and as the bumper supply of land parcels for private housing in the government land sale programme is developed. We estimate that an average of 33,434 units of housing could enter into the market annually between 2012-2015 or 3.5x the average over 2004-2010. This compares with an average household formation of 18,000-26,000 over the past few years.

The current low interest rate environment and low vacancy levels are supportive of rents and the positive rental carry makes property investments attractive. However, with the large incoming supply over the next 2-3 years, vacancy rates are expected to trend up and this would exert pressure on rents and yields, resulting in a drag on prices.

Source: DBS Vickers.

Betting against the government and basic principles of economics, buying more investment properties now, does not seem like a savvy thing to do. Overleveraging would make this worse.

Related posts:
1. Should we be staying invested or in cash?
2. Selling a private property just got harder.
3. Buying a private property as a owner-occupier. Think like an investor.
4. New or resale property?
5. Be a real estate owner the easy way.

Be a plumber or be unemployed?

I read an article in The Straits Times today on how a 50 year old Chinese plumber makes RMB10,000 a month clearing drains in Wuhan, Hubei, China. This is about S$2,000 and about 5 times more than what a fresh graduate in China is able to command as an office executive.

The plumber has saved enough money to buy a car and pay off his mortgage, feats which Chinese office executives are envious of. So, could we expect more graduates to become plumbers in China? Most unlikely.

"Over a quarter of new college graduates are avoiding more physical work as electricians, plumbers, and drivers in favor of office jobs, according to the Labor Ministry, despite average starting salaries less than half of what’s on offer elsewhere."

It was reported that fresh graduates in China would rather remain unemployed than to take up a job that involves menial labour. A fresh graduate, after six months of being jobless, admitted that he could get a job as a blue-collar worker which would pay well but he would rather not do it. Why? It would not sound good when he tells people what he does.

Now, I wonder if we gave the plumber a fancy title, would that help? Sanitation Specialist? Does it sound better?

Anyway, this case is not exceptional as a survey found that 6 in 10 graduates in China would prefer to be a white collar executive making RMB 3,000 a month instead of a blue color worker making RMB 5,000 a month.

I don't think this situation is unique to China either. It is probably the same anywhere.

Is a society more advanced when its people are more concerned about class than financial well being? Class could take many forms, of course, and not just in the form of job titles.

What about the place of work and the dress code? Is working in the CBD and wearing a tie and jacket at work more prestigious than working in a warehousing district and wearing jeans and t-shirt at work? What if the latter were to pay twice as much as the former?

Should we care about how people look at us or how our bank account looks?

Related post:
A movie: The Iron Lady.

SGX: Heavy selling.

SGX Centre Two

SGX's share price could go as low as $6.30 in time. This is the neckline of a reverse head and shoulders pattern which formed from November 2011 to January 2012.

However, both the rising 50d and 100d MAs should provide some support in case of further price weakness. Would they be strong enough to prevent a more drastic decline in price? Your guess is as good as mine.

If I were interested in getting in on the long side, I would pay attention to the 100d MA. See how a trendline connecting the lows of December 2011 and January 2012 seems to approximate its position? Should be a stronger support than the 50d MA and if it should go, $6.30 is the next support.

March 6: Noble Group, Singapore Exchange, Swiber, Hi-P International
Tuesday, 06 March 2012

© 2012 - The Edge Singapore

Sembcorp and SembMarine.

SembCorp's share price broke through the 20dMA as if it didn't exist. Could we see the rising 50dMA tested for support eventually? It is now at $4.70.

SembMarine's share price gapped down dramatically on the back of extremely high volume. It would not surprise me if the 50dMA should be tested for support in the next few sessions. It is now at $4.74. If the selling pressure is strong enough, we could see that giving way too. $4.36 in time? Possibly.

Temasek raises $328m from SembMarine stake sale
Tuesday, 06 March 2012

© 2012 - The Edge Singapore

Sembcorp Marine shares fall after news of Temasek stake sale
Tuesday, 06 March 2012

© 2012 - The Edge Singapore

Tea with AK71: My briefcase.

When I first started work as an adult, I spent almost $200 buying a leather briefcase. I saw it in a mail order pamphlet, thought it looked nice and the price rather reasonable. It lasted some two years before giving way. So, did I buy a new briefcase? No.


One of my vendors gave me a briefcase made of fabric. It was much lighter than the leather briefcase I had and it was free! I was very pleased with that briefcase and used it with pride until it too gave way a few years later.


My third briefcase was also made of fabric. Again, it was free! Wow! That was a free bag from a periodical I subscribed to. I believe it was Asiaweek. I don't see this periodical anymore. Could be defunct now.

Since the demise of the leather briefcase I first bought as a working adult, I have never bought another briefcase. Every single one was free since.


Over the years, I would collect free briefcases. Collect? Yes, they were free from merchants, banks or malls when certain conditions were met. In recent years, I also received two briefcases as presents from friends, a leather one and a fabric one.

My current briefcase is my favourite, a very lightweight fabric bag that has lasted me four years but it has finally given way. It has torn but I want to continue using it for a while more.

Free bag from United Colors of Benetton.

After years of faithful service, it is fraying.

This was a free bag from United Colors of Benetton. Yes, it is branded!


The bag was given free to my sister for purchasing a certain minimum amount from them. She didn't want it. So, I took it!


This was probably 8 years or so ago. I can't be sure but it was a long time ago. I think the shop was in Centrepoint.


Well, nothing lasts forever really, not even a diamond, scientifically speaking. I would have to retire this bag one day and choose a replacement from my ready stock of free briefcases at home. ;p

Related post:
Money management: Needs and wants.

A movie: The Iron Lady.

I just watched "The Iron Lady" in which Meryl Streep plays Baroness Margaret Thatcher, the powerful former leader of Great Britain. Meryl Streep's performance was entrancing and she got the accent down pat!

It was a sad movie in the end but it was a sadness with an air of dignity.

Many things that Baroness Margaret Thatcher stood for in the movie resonated with me and I feel that Singaporeans or anyone, for that matter, would benefit from her wisdom.

This left the deepest impression on me:

“What I do think is a man should be encouraged to stand on his own two feet. Yes, we help people. Of course we help people, but for those who can do, they must just get up and do. And if something’s wrong, they shouldn’t just whine about it. They should get in there and do something about it. Change things.”

I have, whenever and wherever appropriate, made comments to the same effect.

When people tell me that they are just average people and that they cannot achieve financial freedom, I tell them to stop being average. Be more than average. Often, we are our worst enemies.




Related posts:
1. Do you want to be richer?
2. Envious? Find our own way.

Losing your hair?

Some of us might be suffering from pre-mature hair fall. I know many friends who are pulling out their hair because of this problem. Er... ok, bad joke.

Anyway, if you suffer from pre-mature hair fall, why not give natural remedies a try?

TK TrichoKare is a holistic hair and scalp care centre that provides European Herbal remedies (consisting natural botanicals such as Jojoba, Rosemary, Nettles, Burdock, Aloe Vera and Lavender) for all hair conditions.

Fill out your details and enjoy a special introductory price at TK TrichoKare: here.