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Yongnam: Worried about warrants?

Saturday, July 14, 2012


Yongnam has been doing very well in recent years. Its management also shows a commitment in sharing the fruits of its achievements with shareholders as it paid steadily higher dividends in the last four years.

Yongnam's order book remains robust although its Q1 revenue and profit declined due to delays in starting up of a couple of projects. Is this why its share price has been languishing? Does Mr. Market expect Yongnam to underperform from this year on?

Well, to be fair, the broader market has been languishing too. It remains to be seen whether the 3,000 points pyschological resistance on the STI could be overcome.



With Yongnam, I am not so worried about its fundamentals. In fact, I expect the company to win more contracts as regional governments spend more on infrastructure projects. This will generate steady revenue for the company. With increasing contribution from its specialised civil engineering arm, profits are likely to improve at a steady clip.

What could be holding back its share price is its outstanding warrants. Warrants? Yes, the company had a 3 for 10 warrants issue in 2007. 3 for 10 is quite a big proportion. If all the warrants were exercised, we could see a 23% dilution in EPS. Then, its shares would look more expensive.

So, the question is whether Yongnam is able to make use of the funds productively to improve its EPS proportionally or more to negate any dilution concerns. This is something that no amount of foresight would be able to throw light on. So, a cautious Mr. Market is understandable.


Now, I would like to suggest that it is possible that holders of the warrants might not exercise the warrants. Reason? The exercise price is 25c a piece. With Yongnam's share price at 23.5c at the last closing, these holders could be better off allowing the warrants to expire and buying more shares of the company in the open market if they wanted to add to their long positions.

Also, if I remember correctly, the warrants were not free. They were sold at 3c a piece. So, the full price of a warrant turned share is actually 28c for the original warrant holders.

There are rather bullish 12 months target prices for Yongnam's shares by various research houses from 30c or so upwards. Unless Yongnam's share price is able go past 25c a piece, the exercise price of its warrants, I doubt holders would exercise their warrants and worries of dilution would evaporate, therefore.

The warrants expire 14 Dec 2012. That is only five months away. I guess I can only wait and see.

Related posts:
1. Yongnam: 3 new contracts worth $63.8m
2. Yongnam: FY2011 results.

Yongnam: 3 new contracts worth $63.8m.

Friday, July 13, 2012

Yongnam announced that it won 3 new contracts worth $63.8m. This will add to the company's current order book of $469m, making it $532.8m. These new wins are expected to have a positive effect on the company's numbers for 2012. Yongnam is a leader in its field and expectations are for more contract wins in the coming months.



Yongnam's net profit for 1Q 2012 came in lower compared to 1Q 2011 because of delays in projects starting up in 1Q 2012. 2011 was also a very strong year due to completion of higher margin projects. An improvement in 2H 2012 is expected, however. 

"Nonetheless, we continue to win notable projects both in Singapore and overseas. As at March 31, 2012, our order books stood at a healthy S$469 million. We remain cautiously optimistic that the Group will perform reasonably well in FY2012 in view of a strong pipeline of projects that we are bidding for and the two delayed projects ramping up in the second half of the year." Seow Soon Yong, CEO

Gross profit margin: 29.3%
Net gearing: Lower at 0.28x
NAV/share: 24.13c
EPS: 0.91c

If we were to annualise the weaker quarterly EPS of 0.91c, we will get 3.64c. This would give us a PER of 6.45x with a share price of 23.5c.

Read announcement: here.
See 1Q 2012 results: here.

Tea with AK71: Lipton, Twinings, TWG et al.

I think we would not have missed much if we stayed away from the stock market the last few days. So, we might as well take it easy and have a cup of tea once in a while. My usual is a cup of Lipton tea which is inexpensive and quite good, I feel.

I had Twinings before which is supposedly more atas. Is it really?

Then, when a friend from Hong Kong came to visit, he went into this very atas looking tea drinking place, TWG, in ION Orchard. He was looking to buy some TWG tea because they were not available in Hong Kong. He and his wife bought some in Canada and enjoyed it. I looked at the prices and anyone looking at me then might have wondered whether to call an ambulance. Super expensive!



What inspired this blog post? I recently ordered some supplements and was given a packet of very atas looking tea. It is St. Dalfour Classic Breakfast Tea. It is organic tea from Ceylon and blended in St. Dalfour, France. Wah! If it doesn't sound atas to you, you must be drinking more atas tea than this. Please help to educate me.

Note for non-Singlish speakers: The word "atas" in Singlish means "high class".

Borrow money and be paid to do so!

Monday, July 9, 2012

No, there is no typo in the title of this blog post. Yes, you read it correctly!

So, where can we go to borrow some money and be paid to do so? Who are the people lending us money and paying us for it? Maxi-Cash?

Nope, not Maxi-Cash. What I am describing is happening in Germany and, unfortunately, the option is not open to us. So, it would remain a dream.

Hey, day dreaming is actually good for health, you know?



BERLIN: Investors paid to lend Germany money for six months at an auction on Monday, the country's central bank said, as they flocked to the safe haven of Europe's top economy.

The yield or rate on the auction of six-month debt was a record low -0.03 percent, the Bundesbank, which organised the auction, said in a statement.


Source: CNA, 9 July 2012.
Read the full story: here.

In ASSI, we talk of growing our wealth and beating inflation. We also say that if we want to protect our wealth, we have to take risk. So, to find investors parking billions of Euros in bonds with a negative yield is simply mind boggling! For these investors, they cannot even talk about how the interest they receive is not keeping up with inflation. Upon maturity, they would get back a smaller amount! (Keeping my money at home would at least ensure that the nominal value stays the same, wouldn't it? I think I am missing something here.)

Some would argue that these investors are paying the borrower to keep their money safe. Now, I am going to say something which you might find enlightening (or not): Keeping our money safe is not the same as keeping our wealth safe.

Related posts:
1. Grow your wealth and beat inflation.

2. To protect our wealth, we have to take risk.

China Minzhong: Crossroads.

Sunday, July 8, 2012

China Minzhong's share price has been forming a base. It is clear that immediate support is now provided by the 20dMA which has stopped declining and is, in fact, gently rising. A rising MFI suggests that there is an underlying and growing demand while the sharply rising OBV suggests that smart money is moving back into the counter as its share price moves sideways with an upward bias.




The MACD, although rising, is still in negative territory. However, this could change soon as it could cross into positive territory next week, everything remaining constant. Could a change in trend take place soon? It looks possible.

The 50dMA is still declining sharply and we should see it crossing the 20dMA in the next week or so. If the share price is able to stay above the 50dMA then, we could see much more room for moving upwards.

A major resistance would be a gap fill at 82c which, incidentally is where the 100dMA and the 261.8% Fibo line are approximating. Before that, however, I expect resistance to manifest at 71c which is where the 161.8% Fibo line approximates.

Immediate support is at 59c thereabouts.

Sound Global: Would I buy now?

Saturday, July 7, 2012


Fundamentally, a top down approach suggests that the industry Sound Global is in will continue to do well as governments invest in solutions to water related problems. My past research and experience with the company when it was known as E-pure also gave me the confidence required to invest in the company again although my initial re-entry price of 59c was less than ideal.

In the subsequent market sell down, I bought more shares at 46.5c on 31 May 2012 which means that my long position is now in the black. I am looking to possibly locking in some gain as the charts seem to suggest that this could be a good idea.



In the last session, a black candle was formed on the back of higher volume, suggesting that the bulls had a hard time pushing the share price higher. Do I see signs of distribution? Well, the OBV is still rising which does not suggest that smart money is leaving as price moves higher. Accumulation is still going on.

However, the lower high on the MFI which measures demand suggests to me that buying momentum is slowing down. Then, looking at the MACD histogram (MACD-H) which is a measurement of the distance between the MACD and the signal line, we see lower highs too. The MACD-H usually precedes the MACD itself. So, a change in trend could be on the horizon.

Could Sound Global's share price move higher from here? It could but the technicals suggest that it could be a slow grind upwards if it should happen. Would I buy more then? Probably not as I feel that, technically, selling could be a more palatable proposition.

Capitaland: Leveling up.

"People’s Bank of China slashed its one-year deposit and lending rates by 25bps and 31bps respectively just a month after it cut interest rates by 25bps. Beijing also announced further easing of interest rates, with banks expected to lower lending rates by as much as 70% against benchmark rates." Further expectations are for the bank RRR (required reserve ratio) to be cut by another 50bps in 3Q 2012.  (Source: The EDGE)

All these measures would serve to improve liquidity, helping businesses and consumers gain easier access to cheaper loans. As Capitaland has a significant presence in China, improving liquidity in the country will only benefit its projects over there.

Capitaland's share price has been climbing steadily higher on the back of higher volumes. This has attracted the attention of bulls and bears alike. Yes, undoubtedly. Although bulls are enjoying the ride, at the first sign of weakness, bears would rush back in.

Volume is the fuel that drives rallies. With the high volume seen, we won't be wrong to expect price to possibly go higher. Now, how high can the share price go? No one can say for sure. Bummer!




However, what I can say is that price has touched a major resistance, a many times tested resistance. People who bought at this level during the period of 11 April 2012 to the first few days of May 2012 could be looking to break even. The desire to break even is why this resistance is likely to be a tougher one.

The bullish momentum has to be strong enough to break through the barrier decisively. Any hesitation by the bulls will bring back the bears. Even as the OBV suggests that accumulation is powering on, there is no sign that the counter is overbought on the MFI.

Managing to break the immediate resistance could possibly see the double top formed in February and March 2012 tested. This is at $3.15. Incidentally, the 150% Fibo line approximates this price level as well which adds to the expectation that this resistance could be a stronger one.

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Friday, July 6, 2012



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Cambridge Industrial Trust: 30 Teban Gardens.

Thursday, July 5, 2012

Cambridge Industrial Trust is looking at buying 30 Teban Gardens for S$41m.

"Cambridge Industrial said 30 Teban Gardens Crescent is a high quality asset, with prominent exposure to the Ayer Rajah Expressway. The acquisition will further reduce the reliance of the trust’s income stream on any single asset or tenant."

Eurosports Auto at 30 Teban Gardens distributes Lamborghinis.

What I am immediately interested in is how are they going to fund the purchase and how will it impact my income received from the REIT.

The REIT has a gearing level of some 35.9% as of March 2012. Not excessive but it is not low either.

The manager has said that the acquisition will be funded through a mixture of equity fund raising and debt. In what proportion and in what form is the equity fund raising going to take? I guess we will have to wait for more details.

If the acquisition goes through, the manager expects the net property income (NPI) of the trust to improve some 4.6%. If the acquisition is fully funded by debt, DPU could be impacted similarly but with equity fund raising involved, depending on how many new units are issued, DPU would probably not increase by as big a percentage. If a rights issue is involved, we would also have to see the asking price before we can calculate the distribution yield.

Cambridge Industrial Trust has improved on its DPU for four consecutive quarters and it seems like a relatively good investment for income. However, I am unable to forget Chris Calvert's spotted track record before this. So, this remains a smallish investment in my portfolio.

I have a nagging feeling that this acquisition is not a good idea. Although the acquisition would only go through on a condition that the vendor (seller) obtains a further 22 years lease from JTC, the initial lease term was for 10 years only (from 1 July 2007). This means that 5 years have lapsed. Even with a further 22 years of lease, it would mean a total of only 27 years is left to the lease and would expire in 2039.

Is the valuation overly optimistic and is the REIT overpaying?

Slides presentation 26 - 28 June 2012: Here.

See announcement on acquisition: Here.

Croesus Retail Trust.

Wednesday, July 4, 2012

"Croesus Retail Trust is planning a Singapore initial public offering of about $800 million (US$634.22 million), backed by mainly Japanese assets, IFR reported on Wednesday."


It is an interesting choice of name. Croesus was the wealthy King of Lydia (part of modern day Turkey) and in Greek culture, the name is synonymous with a wealthy man. Would the REIT live up to its name?

Although I find this REIT interesting, I am not too excited about it at least for now because I remember Starhill Gobal REIT's Japanese retail properties to be a drag on its performance. The lacklustre Japanese economy has caused its retail sector to decline year after year.

Unlike demand for housing which is rather inelastic (which is a reason for liking Saizen REIT), demand for retail spaces is very sensitive to a country's economic performance.

This was what Starhill Global REIT's management said in its 2011 Annual Report:


The Japanese retail environment remains challenging. The Manager is continuously optimising asset performance through active management of the leases.
-->

Let us wait for more details.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Making money.

Tuesday, July 3, 2012

The issue of how REITs must constantly raise funds in order to expand has been beaten to death and I have also blogged about it more than once. The debate can and probably will go on forever but, as far as I am concerned, it has little value and serves to distract us from what really matters.

If REITs are raising funds for activities that are yield accretive, I would readily support the exercise and would, in fact, try to subscribe for more than my entitlement of rights if the offer is very attractive. Bearing this in mind, I have been able to profit from rights issues. To me, as an investor, I want to make money and if I could profit from rights issues, I would.

To this end, one of the rights issues which I have made the most money out of was AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT's. The rights were priced at 15.5c per unit. I applied for many excess rights and received quite a large number of rights units in that exercise. Post consolidation, these rights units cost 77.5c per unit. At today's price of, say, $1.22 per unit, there is a capital gain of about 57.5%. From then till now, I have also enjoyed an annual distribution yield (on cost) of some 13% on these units.

Of course, there are some who would point out that the units I was holding on to, pre-rights issue, suffered some dilution and loss in value. The suggestion is that Mr. Market would recognise this and that it could be reflected in the unit price. Well, at today's price of $1.22 a unit, it would translate into a pre-consolidation price of 24.4c per unit. I don't remember ever paying as much as 24c a unit, pre-consolidation, for AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT. There is something to be said about a penchance for buying into REITs which are trading at a (large) discount to their NAVs, perhaps.

Why am I quite suddenly talking about AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and rights issues?

OK, before you go clicking on SGX looking for announcements, no, they are not having a rights issue. Then why?

Well, some people say that I am always using First REIT as an example of how investing in REITs can be very rewarding. So, this is another example to the same effect, isn't it?

It is also a more powerful example since there were many who cursed George Wang et al. from the days when it was known as MI-REIT and in need of recapitalisation, declaring that the REIT would never amount to much after the rescue.

(Pause...)

29 Woodlands Industrial Park E1.


OK, if you have guessed that this is not the real reason behind this blog post, hurrah! You guessed correctly.

I try to be forward looking and care more about the future than I do about the past. Caring more about the past could become an obsession as I grow older though. I hope it would not happen although I am sure it is only a matter of time. I see enough examples of how it is happening to older people all the time.

The catalyst for this blog post is the annual report from AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT which I was flipping through over the weekend. Specifically, it has to do with the fact that quite a number of properties in the REIT's portfolio have re-development potential.

As we have seen in the current redevelopment of 20 Gul Way which is to be completed in two phases (phase 1 by November 2012 and phase 2 by December 2013), redevelopment is a very good way of delivering more value to unitholders.

The redevelopment of 20 Gul Way did not require any rights issue although there was a private placement to CWT Limited (and regular readers know that I would very much prefer rights issue but the private placement was rather small and a rights issue would have been rather costly.)

10 Soon Lee Road

Well, there are a few more properties in the REIT's portfolio which could be considered for re-development to take advantage of the maximum plot ratios allowed. Examples are:

10 Changi South Lane (Lease expiry: June 2056)
Current plot ratio: 1.60
Maximum plot ratio: 2.50

541 Yishun Industrial Park A (Lease expiry: June 2054)
Current plot ratio: 1.28
Maximum plot ratio: 2.50

2 Ang Mo Kio Street 65 (Lease expiry: March 2047)
Current plot ratio: 1.31
Maximum plot ratio: 2.50

103 Defu Lane 10 (Lease expiry: June 2043)
Current plot ratio: 1.20
Maximum plot ratio: 2.50

8 Senoko South Road (Lease expiry: October 2054)
Current plot ratio: 1.30
Maximum plot ratio: 2.50

10 Soon Lee Road (Lease expiry: March 2041)
Current plot ratio: 0.88
Maximum plot ratio: 2.50

With gearing level at 30% or so, I would not be surprised if a major rights issue is required if there should be plans to redevelop these sites. In fact, I expect it to take place. When will it take place? Ah, that one, I don't know.

If you think that I am quite excited with the prospect of another rights issue, you are right (pun unintended). I am pretty sure I am not the only one too.

Related posts:
1. REITs and rights issues: Dilutive or not?
2. REITs and rights issues: A Singaporean tale.
3. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Accumulate on weakness.

My very first blog post on AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT in December 2009:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT (MI-REIT).

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Win a Canon IXUS digital camera!

Monday, July 2, 2012


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Sunday, July 1, 2012


In 2002, Eu Yan Sang's first clinic at South Bridge Road opened.

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Find out how Eu Yan Sang has modernised TCM and win Eu Yan Sang goodie bags at: Eu Yan Sang turns 10.

Voices, noises and choices.

Saturday, June 30, 2012



The amount of information out there is enough to make one feel somewhat overwhelmed or even faint. I have not been reading blogs as much in the last one week and kept my reading primarily to Channel NewsAsia, The Business Times and Yahoo!Finance. Even so, it probably is enough to make heads spin.

Some proclaimed that the U.S. housing market has bottomed and is picking up! Conventional wisdom says that the U.S. housing market must pick up before we see a return to sustainable economic growth. On the same day, another article claimed that the U.S. economy is sliding back into recession!

Then, the stock markets around the world rallied because European banks can now be recapitalised directly from bailout funds. There are those who then said this is only a relief rally and it won't last. Their advice? Don't believe the rally! Sell the rally!

S&P500                       +2.49%
DAX                              +4.33%
What about the Singapore stock market? Some say that it is being re-rated upwards because stocks here are up 9.8% in H1. Some say that it is because of window dressing in the first half that has pushed the STI upwards. Huh? Which came first? The chicken or the egg?

Hey, don't believe me, go get a copy of the weekend edition of The Business Times today. (Er, in case some are wondering, no, this is not a paid advertorial by The Business Times although you could be helping me a tiny bit as I am a shareholder of SPH.)

OK, if you have not fallen off your chair or reached for a bottle of medicated oil by now, good.

So, what are we to do? Do we join the bullish camp or the bearish camp? Regular readers would have guessed my answer. I would say neither. Stay practical. Stay invested but have a war chest ready.

Staying 100% or mostly in cash is not a good idea. It is unproductive as higher than average inflation chips away the value of our cash on hand. In fact, The Business Times has an article today which says that although the Singapore labour market is tight and although people might receive increments to their salaries, they are seeing little gain due to high inflation. Like what we learned in economics, there is nominal wage increase but not much real wage increase.

Actually, businesses are finding rising costs a struggle to deal with. Restaurants have reduced the size of portions being served and have, in some cases, increased prices.

At Ichiban Boshi, my family like to order soft shell crabs because we find that $5.50 for 2 soft shell crabs (cut into halfs) is not too bad. However, when we ordered it again a month or so ago, we only found 3 halfs on the plate. We thought perhaps 1 half fell on the kitchen floor or something. Anyway, when we ordered it again on a more recent visit, there were still 3 halfs only.  Inflation had spirited away half a soft shell crab although price stayed at $5.50 a portion. Sheesh!

There are many costs of doing business and rent is a big one here. Rental rates in Singapore have been going up and up. Thus far, the only sector that has seen a decline in rent is in prime office space due to more than ample supply. There were signs very early on which is why I have been underweighting this sector in my porfolio of S-REITs. However, we can expect this sector to recover rapidly if the global economy picks up again. Just bear in mind that office tenants are a rather footloose bunch.

SPH's Clementi Mall.

Generally, however, it is a very good time to be landlords. For the vast majority of us who are not financially able to participate by owning shops and buildings directly, investing in selected S-REITs and SPH is the next best thing. In fact, some might say it is even better as we do not have to worry about the day to day operations of the properties. Well, there are pros and cons, to be sure.

There are many voices out there and we have many choices. However, we have to always remember not to be intimidated by all the information being stuffed in our faces. What is worse than having no information? It is to be drowning in too much information.

Know what matters. Everything else is just noise, is it not?

Related posts:
1. Office S-REITs VS Industrial S-REITs (4)
2. Staying postive on S-REITs.
3. Bearish or Bullish?
4. SPH: Better investment than retail S-REITs?

Market gyrations, my portfolio and a sabbatical.

Friday, June 22, 2012

My investments in S-REITs are holding up nicely which gives credence to my strategy to overweight S-REITs in my portfolio. Their relative price stability and high distribution yields provide some solace in a volatile market.

A brief look at some of my larger investments in S-REITs:

1. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT closed at $1.20 per unit. My cost per unit ranges from $0.775 to $1.10.

2. Sabana REIT closed at $0.97 a unit. I first initiated a long position at $0.93 in March 2011. I bought more as its unit price sank below $0.90. I am still holding on to those units I bought at $0.865.

3. First REIT closed at $0.90 a unit. This is an investment I have had for many years. My lowest entry price was $0.42 during the global financial crisis. I took part in its rights issue at $0.50 a unit. I bought more nil-paid rights for a total cost of $0.66 a unit. I also bought more units at $0.70+c.

4. LMIR closed at $0.39 a unit. Like First REIT, this is an investment I have had for many years. My lowest entry price was $0.185 during the global financial crisis. I took part in its rights issue at $0.31 a unit. I also bought more nil-paid rights for total cost of $0.331 to $0.365 a unit.

5. Saizen REIT closed at $0.143 a unit. The history I have had with this REIT is somewhat bumpy. I increased my long position once again with a large purchase as its warrants reached their last day of trading not too long ago. Average price of that purchase $0.129.




I have collected many quarters of income distributions from these investments and my war chest is constantly being refilled. So, I constantly have funds to take advantage of any investment opportunities which might come along.

My strategy is to stay partially invested as we must also have cash to continue investing especially if Mr. Market decides to sell good quality stocks and trusts at bargain basement prices.

Recent efforts to invest in some companies instead of S-REITs have produced below average results. In fact, my poorly timed investments in China Minzhong and Wilmar, although relatively small, are a drag on my portfolio's performance. If I had stuck to my strategy of concentrating on S-REITs in recent times, my porfolio would have fared much better.

Of course, there would be people who disagree. Readers who comb the cyberspace for information would have, no doubt, come across some local blogs which vilify REITs. Well, everyone is entitled to his own opinions.

I have gotten somewhat tired of defending my position. Actually, why do I even need to defend my strategy? If people like it, they are welcome to follow. If they don't like it, don't follow. This is a free world. Just don't be rude.

I was never a savvy person with IT stuff and when I discovered blogging, I was like a child who discovered the sweetness of sugar. I got a sugar high. I have always enjoyed writing. So, I took to blogging like a fish to water. Also, as I age, I have developed an increasingly serious speech impediment. To a rather talkative person, this is an annoyance and makes blogging even more of an outlet of expression.

Making money from blogging was never a first thing on my mind. It came about later on when friends suggested that I could put some ads in my blog. I must say that I have been able to make some pocket money this way. Pocket money? Hey, Nuffnang pays me 20c for every click I get for ads they place on my blog. If my primary motivation for starting this blog is to make money, I must be seriously mental.

If I were to stop blogging tomorrow, what would I lose in monetary rewards?



Well, I have been thinking of taking a break from blogging and I have shared this thought here in my blog as well. There are other aspects of my life I would like to spend more time on. There are also people I would and should spend more time with. It is also quite obvious to regular readers that I have been blogging less frequently too.

We often hear of the saying that "this is the last straw that broke the camel's back". Well, I think I got another catalyst to stop blogging at least for a while earlier this evening.

To my regular readers, you know which blog posts I have here in my blog which would keep you squarely on your goal of financial freedom. Each time you waver, come back to my blog and go down the right sidebar. I would also be doing the same, no doubt. It is not easy to start but start we must. The journey is hard but go on we must. When we see the results of our effort, it would get easier and easier. Remember, if AK71 has done it, you can too.


To new readers, understand that we are all different. Not everyone can be a Warren Buffet or Donald Trump or Robert Kiyosaki. They have all taken their own paths to success. You should find your own. Reading my blog, if you feel that my way is something you would like to emulate, give it a go but know that everyone's circumstances are different. Set for yourself realistic goals. Take baby steps but you have to work towards building up passive income to a level that is equal to or exceeds your earned income. Then, you would have achieved financial freedom and you work because you want to and not because you have to.

In everything we do, there is an element of luck. Even Warren Buffet was wrong before. No one is God and even with Him, there is debate on things He might have done wrong. OK, this is a sign that I should stop. Yes, Father, I have sinned.

----------------
The following was a blog post written on 28 November 2011 after talking to "ao" in LP's infamous cbox (Bully the Bear). It was never published... till now:

A reader asked me recently if I ever get tired of replying to comments in my blog, especially with skeptics aplenty when it comes to my investments in REITs. I told him that I am only human and I do feel tired sometimes.


Recently, I had lunch with the blogmaster of Time to Huat and another long time friend. They asked the same thing, almost. One of them said that some comments were almost repetitive and marvelled at my patience in replying to every comment even so.


To me, I feel that if a job is worth doing, it is worth doing well. How do we measure worth? In the world of blogging, at least to me, it is not measured in dollars and cents. I would be better off giving private tuition with my time, using such a measure.


When I started blogging, I took on certain responsibilities whether I knew it at that point in time or not. I am airing my thoughts in cyberspace. I am sharing ideas. Of course, there will be questions and also disagreements. What is a blogger to do? Face these squarely.


Being a blogger is like being a semi public figure. Semi public? Yes, we can choose to blog without revealing our true identity. I have gotten a taste of what it is like to be a semi public figure and I doubt I would ever want to be a public figure. So, although I have met a handful of readers and fellow bloggers so far, I have decided quite some time back to be more reclusive. I value my privacy too much to ever become a public figure.


Recently, I have been thinking again whether I should stop blogging altogether. My blog posts are usually crafted with care  So, it takes up a lot of time and I only have so much time...

Win a Samsung Galaxy S3!

Wednesday, June 20, 2012

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Samsung GALAXY SIII and Your Song!

Free Vaseline Perfect 10 Sample!

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Find out your Skin Score and get a free Vaseline Perfect 10 sample: here at Vaseline.

Wilmar: Not a time to sell.


On 5 June 12, I did a blog post on whether it was time to go long on Wilmar. Yesterday, someone asked me as well if it is now a good time to go long on Wilmar.

To any seasoned market watcher, Wilmar's share price must look quite tantalising as it hit a low of $3.41 on 14 June 12. That was a good 43% lower than its one year high of $5.99 a share.

Now, if we should think of a reason for the decline in price, it is clearly because of the company's disappointing earnings. The company's crushing business is likely to remain very difficult for some time to come. In fact, the CEO said it could take a few years for excess capacity in China to be absorbed. As this business is about 25% of the company's revenue, a decline in its share price is to be expected but the decline has been disproportional. I have no doubt that short sellers made quite a bit of money here as well.


Wilmar's share price has seemingly found a floor and has rebounded somewhat. I see immediate resistance at $3.70 or so. If it should break resistance, we would probably see short sellers covering their positions which would send share price higher to test the next resistance.

If the company's share price should test a new low, everything remaining constant, we should see stronger buying interest returning. Technically, the momentum oscillators are rising and, so, support this thesis. Look out for a higher low in the momentum oscillators then. That would be a clear signal to go long as the share price is set up for a reversal.

Is it time to buy Wilmar's shares? I feel, at least, it is not a time to sell.

Related post:
Wilmar and China Minzhong: Time to go long?

SPH: Better investment than retail S-REITs?

Tuesday, June 19, 2012

SPH is still my largest investment in a Singapore blue chip and it is an important part of my high yield portfolio. CIMB now suggests that investing in SPH is better than investing in retail S-REITs. It would be a happy coincidence for me if CIMB should be right as my only exposure to retail S-REITs is a small long position in Suntec REIT, much smaller than my investment in SPH.



Singapore Press Holdings is becoming increasingly like a retail real estate investment trust (REIT), CIMB Research said, noting its growing retail property arm and stable media business, as well as typical payouts of more than 90%...


The broker also said SPH is a cheaper alternative for investors seeking exposure to retail Singapore REITS after the stock’s underperformance, offering yields of 6.4% versus an average of 6.1% for retail Singapore REITs...


CIMB said revenue compound annual growth rate for SPH’s “gem asset”, Paragon shopping mall in Singapore, stood at 8.3% over 2006-2011, outstripping growth for comparable assets under retail Singapore REITs.


Related post:
SPH: Interim dividend of 7c per share.

Singapore property prices to stay resilient?

If the latest report by Maybank is correct, then, the expected 20 to 30% decline in Singapore property prices over the next couple of years might not transpire. The expectation is now for a mere 10% decline in property prices over the next 18 months. This suggests that any dip in prices could see showflats packed with buyers again.


Related post:
Affordability of housing in Singapore.

Marco Polo Marine: Persistent insider buying.



I find Marco Polo Marine, an offshore and marine company, a rather interesting proposition at current prices of 31.5c to 32.5c a share.

1. PER of about 8x
2. Net profit margin just under 20%
3. NAV per share at 37c
4. Interest cover ratio at 8.3x
5. Gearing at 30%

Marco Polo Marine has the intention of listing an Indonesian subsidiary on the Jakarta Stock Exchange. This could unlock value as Kim Eng estimates the listing could value the company's stake in the Indonesian subsidiary at more than 30% of the company's current market cap.

Perhaps, it is the persistent insider buying over the last 12 months that really nailed it for me here:

Announce Date [Date of Effective Change]Buyer/ Seller Name [Type*]S/ W/ U ** Bought/ (Sold) ('000)Price ($)
After: No. of Shares ('000) ***% Held ***
05/06/12
[05/06/12]
LEE WAN TANG [DIR]S1,095 0.325195,31157.02                
 
05/06/12
[05/06/12]
NAUTICAL INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LTD [SSH]S95 0.325191,39956.17
 
01/06/12
[01/06/12]
LEE WAN TANG [DIR]S110 0.335194,21657.00               
01/06/12
[01/06/12]
NAUTICAL INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LTD [SSH]S110 0.335191,30456.14
 
16/05/12
[16/05/12]
LEE WAN TANG [DIR]S114 0.340194,10656.96           
16/05/12
[16/05/12]
NAUTICAL INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD [SSH]S114 0.340191,19456.11
 
10/05/12
[10/05/12]
LEE WAN TANG [DIR]S100 0.340193,73356.85                
 
10/05/12
[10/05/12]
NAUTICAL INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD [SSH]S100 0.340191,08056.08
 
15/12/11
[14/12/11]
LEE WAN TANG [DIR]S159 0.335193,89256.90                
 
14/12/11
[13/12/11]
LEE WAN TANG [DIR]S100 0.335193,73356.85                
05/12/11
[02/12/11]
LEE WAN TANG [DIR]S100 0.341193,63356.83      
05/12/11
[02/12/11]
NAUTICAL INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LTD [SSH]S100 0.341190,98056.05
     
02/12/11
[02/12/11]
LEE WAN TANG [DIR]S70 0.345193,53356.80               
02/12/11
[02/12/11]
NAUTICAL INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LTD [SSH]S70 0.345190,88056.02
     
28/11/11
[28/11/11]
LEE WAN TANG [DIR]S11 0.330193,46356.77              
28/11/11
[28/11/11]
NAUTICAL INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LTD [SSH]S11 0.330190,81056.00
     
28/11/11
[25/11/11]
LEE WAN TANG [DIR]S500 0.330193,45256.77                
28/11/11
[25/11/11]
NAUTICAL INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LTD [SSH]S500 0.330190,79955.99
      
07/09/11
[06/09/11]
LAI QIN ZHI [DIR]S71 0.337192,95256.63
    
07/09/11
[06/09/11]
LAI QIN ZHI [DIR]S100 0.343192,88156.60
     
07/09/11
[06/09/11]
LEE WAN TANG [DIR]S71 0.337192,95256.62               
07/09/11
[06/09/11]
LEE WAN TANG [DIR]S100 0.343192,88156.60
     
07/09/11
[06/09/11]
NAUTICAL INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LTD [SSH]S100 0.343190,29955.85
     
05/09/11
[02/09/11]
LAI QIN ZHI [DIR]S117 0.350192,78156.58
     
05/09/11
[02/09/11]
LEE WAN TANG [DIR]S117 0.350192,78156.58               
31/08/11
[29/08/11]
LEE WAN TANG [DIR]S100 0.350192,66456.54        
31/08/11
[29/08/11]
NAUTICAL INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LTD [SSH]S100 -190,19955.82        

 
29/08/11
[26/08/11]
LEE WAN TANG [DIR]S64 0.345192,56456.51               
25/08/11
[25/08/11]
LEE WAN TANG [DIR]S299 0.338192,50056.49        
25/08/11
[25/08/11]
NAUTICAL INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LTD [SSH]S299 -190,09955.79        

 
24/08/11
[23/08/11]
LEE WAN TANG [DIR]S50 0.340192,20156.41        
23/08/11
[22/08/11]
LEE WAN TANG [DIR]S251 0.332192,15156.39        
22/08/11
[19/08/11]
LEE WAN TANG [DIR]S170 0.333191,90056.32        
19/08/11
[18/08/11]
LEE WAN TANG [DIR]S300 0.347191,73056.27        
21/06/11
[20/06/11]
LEE WAN TANG [DIR]S100 0.374191,43056.18       
20/06/11
[17/06/11]
LEE WAN TANG [DIR]S150 0.373191,33056.15    
16/06/11
[15/06/11]
LEE WAN TANG [DIR]S120 0.376191,18056.10       
14/06/11
[13/06/11]
LEE WAN TANG [DIR]S150 0.377191,06056.07        
10/06/11
[09/06/11]
LEE WAN TANG [DIR]S100 0.386190,91056.02        
07/06/11
[06/06/11]
LEE WAN TANG [DIR]S200 0.385190,81056.00

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and Sabana REIT: Performance fees.

Sunday, June 17, 2012

This issue of The EDGE has a very interesting article by Goola Warden on S-REITs. In a nutshell, it looks at potential conflicts of interest between their external managers and unitholders. To this end, it looks at the layers of fees charged by the managers.

As investors, we want to make sure that the REIT managers are fairly rewarded since no one would work for free. However, we have to safeguard our interests too especially when there is a lack of uniformity in the way the fees are calculated.

On the issue of performance fee, CLSA says that AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and Sabana REIT are amongst S-REITs with the most equitable performance fee structures. The managers are only paid performance fees upon satisfying certain conditions.


The manager of AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT gets paid 0.1% of the deposited property value if distribution per unit (DPU) growth exceeds 2.5% per annum. The manager gets paid 0.2% of the deposited property value if DPU growth exceeds 5% per annum.

The manager of Sabana REIT gets paid 0.5% of the net property income (NPI) if the REIT achieves DPU growth of 10% per annum for unitholders.

So, if unitholders get a meaningfully higher DPU, the managers are rewarded with a performance fee. I doubt if anyone would quarrel with this. It appeals to my sense of fair play.

Between the two REITs, however, I believe that Sabana REIT's performance fee structure is fairer. Rewarding the manager with a percentage of the NPI makes sense because a higher DPU is probably due to a higher NPI. 

So, having the REIT manager rewarded a percentage of the NPI makes more sense to me than rewarding them with a percentage of the deposited property value.

Nonetheless, AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT's conditional performance fee is still better than those of REITs like Suntec REIT which pays 4.5% of the REIT's NPI as performance fee to its manager regardless of performance. 

Er... Am I missing something here?

Seems like there is more reason to like Sabana REIT now apart from its very high distribution yield. ;)

Reference:
"Growth versus value.", Goola Warden, The EDGE, pages 22 to 24, 18 June 2012.

Related posts:
1. Sabana REIT: 1Q 2012 DPU 2.26c.
2. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 4Q FY2011.


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