First REIT: Bought more at 95c.

Last Friday, I mentioned that "I have been waiting the whole day for someone to sell me some First REIT units at 95c but to no avail. Some people are puzzled why am I so interested in getting some at 95c when I am already vested at 40+c and 70+c. Well, with the proposed acquisitions and rights issue, buying more even at 96c could be quite rewarding. With an average price of 70c, post rights, if we were able to buy at 95c now, a yield of 9.1% is not impossible with an estimated full year DPU of 6.4c in 2011. As the XR date is 1 Dec which is almost 3 weeks away, I will continue to wait patiently at 95c. Wish me luck."

To all my readers who wished me luck, thanks! My overnight buy queue at 95c was filled. Now, I will wait to buy at a lower price if there are people who are willing to sell cheaper to me. This is quite possible since the XD date is 1 Dec.  Many things can happen within these two weeks.  When I mentioned this, someone said that he does not think it is probable since the counter is offering deeply discounted rights. I replied that there might be people who cannot afford to pay for the rights and might choose to lock in their capital gains now by selling the units they have. Never say never.

Technically, the doji formed when First REIT's price touched a high of 99c on 9 Nov was a warning of a possible reversal. It also formed lower highs on the MACD, the MFI and the RSI on that day.  This has painted a picture of negative divergence between price and all the momentum oscillators. OBV confirmed the bearish picture as it plunged, suggesting massive distribution.

So, I have suggested that I would be buying more if people are willing to sell to me cheaper. At what price would I buy more of? Using Fibo lines, I see 138.2% at 93.5c and 161.8% at 92.5c.  Assuming that I buy more at 92.5c, I would have an average price of 92.5c x 4 + 50c x 5 /9 =68.9c and a yield of 9.29% with an estimated annualised DPU of 6.4c in 2011.

92.5c, I am waiting.  Once more, wish me luck. ;-)

Related post:
Saizen REIT, First REIT, Golden Agriculture and Genting SP.

Saizen REIT: Insider buying and divestment.

Saizen REIT's co-CEO and director, Mr. Chang Sean Pey, bought 200 lots at 16c per unit on 12 Nov, last Friday. Continual insider buying is what we have come to expect for this deeply undervalued REIT.

Today, Saizen REIT announced the divestment of another property in YK Shintoku's portfolio: Reef Suite. This is for a cash consideration of JPY 123,184,249 (S$1.9 million), a discount of 6.7% to valuation. This property is located in Sapporo, was built in September 2005 and comprises 18 residential units and 15 parking lots. As of 30 June, this property had an occupancy rate of 84% and brought in JPY 13.2m in rental revenue (gross yield of 10.7% at the selling price). After this divestment, the net outstanding loan of YK Shintoku amounts to approximately JPY 4.9 billion (S$76.7 million).

Read announcement here.

The general picture of increased buying interest in Saizen REIT continued today. 16c is still the battle zone between bulls and bears. 16c remains a significant resistance to overcome as that is where we find the flat 200dMA approximating.

With most of the sell queue at 16c bought up, we just need to see a moderately high volume up day to take out the relatively shorter sell queue at 16.5c. I have an immediate target of 19c in case this happens but, before that, expect rather stiff resistance at 18c, the high in January 2010.

Related post:
Saizen REIT: 1Q FY2011 results.

China Hongxing: Testing support.

The last time I blogged about China Hongxing was on 26 Oct. I concluded by saying "The 100dMA has just completed a golden cross with the 200dMA at 16c.  This is likely to be strong support level and would be ideal as an entry to go long on this counter. In the meantime, 17c is immediate support and could be a nice hedge in case price does not test support at 16c." Since then, the rising 100dMA has moved up further and is now providing support at 16.5c which was where price closed today after having touched an intra day low of 16c.

The lowering in price has been accompanied by a lowering in volume. Looking carefully at the MFI and RSI, it seems as if they are forming higher lows of late. A low volume pull back underway? Looking at the OBV, there is no heavy distribution. The overall picture shows that China Hongxing's price might have found a floor. It is hard to say that it has bottomed since the MACD is still declining below the signal line in negative territory.

If 16.5c fails to hold up as immediate support, the next support is at 15.5c as provided by the 200dMA.

Related post:
China Hongxing: Correction.

Courage Marine: 3Q 2010 results.

A good set of  numbers for 3Q 2010:

1. Revenue improved 54% from the same period last year from US$ 5.506m to US$8.474m.

2. For the 9M 2010, the company turned in a total gross profit of US$9.964m compared to a loss of US$3.245m for 9M 2009. If we remember, it was 4Q 2009 which saved the company, allowing it to have a small net profit for the full year.

3. EPS for 9M 2010 is at US0.85c compared to a loss of US0.27c in the same period last year. EPS for the full year would probably be more than US1c.

It would have to take a very bad 4Q 2010 to destroy whatever the company has achieved in positive numbers thus far in 2010.

A reader asked if there would be a sell down tomorrow. Although I do not see any reason why there should be a sell down, the carnage in the SSE last week could affect the STI and Courage Marine's price. After all, a large portion of the company's business is Chinese. The sell down would be due to negative sentiments, however, and not because the company's fundamentals have taken a turn for the worse. In case of a sell down, I would accumulate. Why?

Courage Marine's management has a track record for sharing the the fruits of its labour with shareholders. Last year, despite ending the year with a small net profit of only US$75,000, it declared a dividend of US0.47c per share due to its strong cash position. Net profit for 9M 2010 is already US$ 9.012 m! Even if 4Q 2010 does not turn in any profit which I believe is unlikely, net profit this year is already 120x higher than the whole of 2009!

Dividend payout for 2010 could be quite a bit higher than 2009.

See results here.

Related posts:
Courage Marine: Riding the waves of recovery.
Courage Marine: Steady as she goes.