First REIT: FY2010 results.

1. Projected DPU for FY2011 remains at 6.4c.

2. NAV/unit as at 31 Dec 2010 is 77c.

3. Gearing in 2011 at 17.25%.

DPU is lower for 4Q FY2010 at 0.87c "due to the issuance of 345,664,382 Rights Units on 31 December2010 in relation to the acquisition of Mochtar Riady Comprehensive Cancer Centre and Siloam Hospitals LippoCikarang. These new rights units are entitled to participate in the 4Q 2010 distribution. If the new rights units issued on 31 December 2010 are excluded in the computation, the adjusted distribution per unit would have been 1.96 cents."

New properties will start contributing to earnings and distributions in 2011. Expecting the DPU for 1Q FY2011 to be 1.6c, therefore.

4Q FY2010 DPU of 0.87c will be payable on 28 Feb 2011.

See presentation slides here.

See report by OCBC Investment Research here.

We believe that FREIT’s current valuations are still compelling, boosted by its attractive yield (estimated yield of 8.3% in FY11F). Future growth will be supported by its stable master lease terms, which has downside revenue protection and built-in step-up rental features. We continue to like FREIT’s strong sponsor support as well as management’s execution capabilities. Maintain BUY with a revised RNAV-derived fair value estimate of S$0.82 (total returns of 15.5%) as we incorporate the latest figures into our assumptions.

Related post:
First REIT: Simply amazing.

Golden Agriculture and First Resources.

Golden Agriculture is closing in on the 100dMA as it ended the day at 71c today on high volume. We could very well see the support provided by the 100dMA tested at 70c in the next session. If it should break, next support could be found at 66c where the rising 200dEMA would be approximating soon.  The 200dEMA, being a long term MA, should be able to provide a much stronger support in case of further decline in price.

The MACD is falling in negative territory. Both MFI and RSI are also declining in overbought territories. The OBV shows clear distribution ongoing. The time to buy some shares in Golden Agriculture could be near.

First Resources declined with a vengeance yesterday on extremely high volume but volume dried up today as price declined another 4c. Could price decline further next week? It certainly could but with volume drying up, drastic price decline similar to what was witnessed yesterday is less likely to happen again.

For anyone thinking of initiating a long position in the counter, the 100dEMA at $1.38 and the 100dMA at $1.35, if tested, could be nice entry prices.

See analysis by DBS Group Research here.

First Resources drop a buying opportunity. Major shareholder Eight Capital sells 75 million ordinary shares and Citigroup places 15 million treasury shares held by the company at $1.48 each.
Thursday, 20 January 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Related post:
Golden Agriculture: Looking to the 100dMA.

Raffles Education: A new property play?

Raffles Education's recent stellar performance in the stock market is now explained. It "has identified a property developer in Singapore to co-develop the Oriental University City (OUC) land to monetise its SGD394m investment in the university city." Read article in Next Insight here. This development is unexpected and could also explain the constant insider buying of the company's shares in the last few months.

Technically,the OBV indicates that accumulation is ongoing while the MFI and RSI are in overbought territories. Although in extremely bullish situations, they could remain overbought for a long while, it is wise to stay cautious and not chase the price higher.

The 200dMA has flattened at 30.5c and it could be resistance turned support. Of course, it would be nice if this could be confirmed if a correction in price happens.

I have fully divested my smallish investment in Raffles Education and extend my best wishes to all who are still vested.

Raffles Education +4.7%; BNP bullish; keeps Buy rating on the stock with a $0.33 target. $0.350 is likely the near-term cap.
Friday, 21 January 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Related post:
Raffles Education: Broke resistance.

CapitaMalls Asia: Pulling back on low volume.

I bought more shares of CapitaMalls Asia today at $1.91 as its share price retreated to test its support at $1.90. I like the picture which is forming which suggests a low volume pull back taking place.

With a sell signal appearing on the MACD histogram and the MACD still in negative territory, although it has been rising above the signal line, one could not be faulted for staying cautious. Look at the RSI and it is clear that the trendline support is broken. However, look at the MFI which takes in not just price but volume as well, support is just being tested.

Whether the uptrend support at $1.90 holds up is important for the counter in the near future. If it breaks, the nascent uptrend is in jeopardy and I would turn cautious  If it holds up, price could bounce off and move higher. With the rising 20dMA on course to meet the falling 50dMA, expect some volatility but the technicals do have an upward bias for now and a golden cross is in the works.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: A sustainable reversal?