CapitaMalls Asia: Plague, no more?

CapitaMalls Asia has broken out of its downtrend, closing at $1.92, two bids above resistance at $1.90. Volume increased as price strengthened.

We see a buy signal on the MACD histogram as both the MFI and RSI bounced off 50% support. OBV has turned higher, suggesting increased accumulation. More upside is likely.

The next resistance is a band between $1.95 and $1.98, as defined by the upper Bollinger, the candlestick resistance of end December 2010 and the descending 50dMA. Successfully overcoming this resistance band could see price going higher to where we find the 100d and 200d MAs.  These are now at $2.08 and $2.10 respectively.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Plagued by downtrend.

Saizen REIT: Golden crosses.

In technical analysis, some look out for the true golden cross which is the 100dMA crossing the 200dMA, going upwards. This is said to be more significant than the 20dMA or the 50dMA crossing the 200dMA as it signifies longer term strength in a counter's price moving upwards.

For Saizen REIT, the 100dMA seems on track to forming a golden cross with the 200dMA although it could be another couple of weeks before it is clearer. That there has been gradual accumulation since mid November 2010 is quite clear from the OBV. The MFI and RSI are above 50% but not overbought. Price could move higher in a nascent uptrend but it could be quite gradual as well.

Related post:
Saizen REIT (3 Jan 11)

S-REIT sector not attractive?

I read that JPMorgan says "valuations are no longer compelling as S-REITs are trading at a forward dividend yield of 6.0%, P/B of 1.1X and 7.5% premium to house NPV estimates."


JPMorgan singled out 2 REITs for comment:

Cuts CapitaCommercial Trust to Underweight vs Neutral on lack of growth, deteriorating portfolio quality and rich valuation. 
 

Cuts CapitaMall Trust to Neutral vs Overweight "as we believe that constant cash calls from the sector would put pressure on the stock."

I am vested in neither one. As with stocks, there will be better counters to be vested in and the ones to avoid. Broader strategy towards S-REITs stays the same for me. Stay vested in S-REITs with higher yields, trading at a discount to NAV and with relatively low gearing.

S-REIT valuations no longer compelling - JPMorgan
Wednesday, 12 January 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Hock Lian Seng: Running out of gas?

This counter had been sleeping for some time. Yesterday, it stirred, forming a wickless white candle on the back of higher volume. The bullish candlestick followed through today as price touched a high of 33.5c before closing at 32c, forming a very long upper wick in the process. 32c, thus, remains a formidable resistance with some history backing it.

Although the OBV shows sharp accumulation, both MFI and RSI are in their overbought regions. Price could have moved up too much and too quickly. In case of a pullback, I expect strong support to be found at 30c. Any attempt by the counter to move higher in price could see selling pressure once again as people who bought at 33c might try to break even and get out of what might have been a hasty buy decision.

"If price tests 29c, I would buy more. 29c is also where we find the 138.2% Fibo line. This should lend support in case of retracement." Buying more at 29c almost three months ago has proven to be a good decision.

Related post:
Hock Lian Seng: Buying more?