Golden Agriculture: Accumulate on weakness.

I plan to accumulate Golden Agriculture on weakness. This would mean at 67.5c support as provided by the trendline support connecting the lows of 6 and 25 May 2011. I would not, however, throw in the kitchen sink. This is because if 67.5c should break and if price were to close lower, we could see price going to 65c and the long term uptrend would still be intact. Buy more at 65c is what I would do if that should happen.

The ADX suggests a lack of trend for Golden Agriculture's share price. In such a situation, I look to the Stochastics for clues. With it closer to the overbought region and forming a lower high although price touched a higher high at 71.5c, the chance of a further decline in price is high.

However, the decline in price in the last two sessions were on the back of lowering volume. This paints a picture of a low volume pullback. So, although further price decline could take place, it could take place due to a lack of buyers and not an increase in sellers. Indeed, the CMF shows a decline in buying pressure but not an increase in selling pressure.

Related post:
Golden Agriculture: Watch the 100dMA.

Sabana REIT: Resistance at 93c demolished!

After the market closed, sleepy and some might even say unloved Sabana REIT saw 2,514 lots bought up at 94c which led to a wickless white candle being formed on higher volume, breaking resistance provided by the declining 50dMA like a hot knife on butter!

The bullish divergence between MACD and price action has delivered and did so in a smashing manner. A test of the declining 100dMA as resistance is most likely and we could see 95c and 95.5c tested next. Although there is no bearish divergence to speak of, locking in some gains is a tempting proposition. I might just divest partially in the face of a rapid appreciation in price.

Related post: Sabana REIT: Still waiting for a 10% yield?

First REIT: Partial divestments at 77c and 79c.

I mentioned on Sunday that First REIT could see 77c tested soon and it did so with aplomb today. Indeed, it went on to close higher at 79c on the back of much higher volume with a total of 3,413 lots changing hands.

With 1,022 lots bought up at 79c after the market closed, there is a good chance that price could test resistance provided by the declining 200dMA at 80c in the next session. Actually, to be exact, the 200dMA would be at 80.5c in the next session and that is also where we find the 161.8% Fibo line. 80c is where we find the 150% Fibo line.

Today, I sold some units at 77c and at 79c, respectively the immediate resistance and 2 bids lower than the resistance at 80c identified in my previous blog post on the REIT. Selling at resistance is conventional wisdom but in an uptrend we could see resistance become support. The bearish divergence between the CMF and price action has been negated with today's explosive move upwards in price. Buying pressure has intensified suddenly and fiercely. Could 77c become the new support? Would I continue to sell more?

The 200dMA is a long term moving average and I expect it to provide significant resistance. At 80c, we would also see distribution yield of First REIT decline to just 8%. Beyond 80c, its yield falls below 8%. I would queue to sell some at 80c and 80.5c but I would not divest fully on the off chance that price action might overcome resistance provided by the 200dMA and push higher.

Related post:
First REIT: Partial divestment?

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First REIT: Partial divestment?

I like First REIT and it remains one of my largest investments. I like the low gearing and high yield. I like the strength of its sponsor and what it has planned for the future. In a blog post, I said fair value for First REIT is at 80c per unit. I still believe it to be so. In fact, I bought more at 73c and 73.5c in early April 2011.

Today, over lunch with some friends, there was mention of a bearish divergence in First REIT's chart. I decided that this bears looking into since LP, the blogmaster of Bully the Bear, who is definitely more accomplished in TA than I am recently divested some units at 76.5c. Indeed, in my blog post of 11 April 2011, I wondered whether First REIT could retest 77c, the high of January 2011 and if there is a bearish divergence, a partial divestment at 77c might not be a bad idea.

Looking at the daily chart, we see the declining 200dMA approximating 80c, a happy coincidence with my perceived fair value of the REIT per unit. However, the high of 77c in January 2011 is obviously a major resistance to overcome before a test of 80c is possible.

Price action is pushing the upper Bollinger and the momentum oscillators are bordering overbought. It seems that there is positive momentum and support. However, looking at the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), we get a hint of possible weakness to come.

The CMF is an oscillator that measures buying and selling pressure over a period of time. The CMF in this case has been negative and getting more so as price moved higher. This gives rise to a bearish divergence. Buying pressure has reduced. It could be, therefore, prudent to divest partially.

As usual, TA is about probability. If price were to break resistance at 77c and move higher, I expect strong resistance at 80c.  If price were to move lower, I expect strong support in the region of 74c. So, a partial divestment at 77c could mean possibly losing a further 3c gain or being able to buy back at 3c lower.

Related post:
First REIT: XR and fair value.
First REIT: Bought more at 73c.
First REIT: Bought more at 73.5c.

Should guys use hand moisturisers?

When I have a problem, I look for solutions. It does not matter if the solution is frowned upon by people sometimes because I am very practical. For example, for many years now, I have been using hand moisturisers. Are some of you frowning now? A guy using hand moisturiser? Well, if that's your reaction, you are a sexist! Think about it. ;)

Why did I start using hand moisturisers? For one reason, to prevent paper cuts! I work in an office which is air conditioned and has very dry air. As we grow older, our skin also gets drier. Working with documents and pushing paper daily, I was a victim of multiple paper cuts. Just the thought of it makes me cringe! Ouch! Solution? Use hand moisturisers. Keeping our skin moist and supple will reduce paper cut incidents.

Over the years, I have used many different hand moisturisers. I like Nivea and Jergens as they are inexpensive. Actually, from time to time, I would find these on special offer at Guardian Pharmacy. You could get a small tube for $1.95 and they are perfect to go in your briefcase, slingbag or handbag.  Of course, these days, we have manbags (i.e. the male version of handbags). Here is a photo of one I carry in my slingbag all the time:

I go to bed with the air-conditioning on the whole night and that is very drying. So, I use a moisturiser for the hands and feet before I go to sleep. For the feet too?  Yes, for the feet too. After a hard day at work with walking and standing, that's exactly what our feet need. Massage the moisturiser into our feet and we will feel a big difference before going to dreamland. For that, I use an "atas" (Malay for "upmarket") moisturiser from Aesop. Here is a photo of the pump size version which I have on my bedside table:

They also come in tubes which I buy for use when I travel and as gifts for friends. LP, the blogmaster of Bully the Bear, has threatened me with decapitation before because Mrs. LP likes the moisturiser so much that she has bought another two tubes thus far. Sigh, the unexpected perils of a well liked gift!

Another one which I like is from Body Shop. Now, I do not usually like products from Body Shop but I like this hand moisturiser because of the almond scent. I have a weakness for almond. It is less expensive compared to Aesop at less than half the price. I always wait for a sale at Body Shop before buying anything from them. Unlike products from Aesop, I do not think it is worth paying the full price for any Body Shop products.

If you are a guy and if you think that hand moisturisers are only for females, think again. ;-)


Extra Special Discounts Up to 45% Off

Related posts:
Tea with AK71: Hand sanitiser.

Golden Agriculture: Watch the 100dMA.

Golden Agriculture had another high volume white candle day but price could not close above the declining 100dMA and a long upper wick was formed in the process. This is the second time in the last few sessions which saw the 100dMA broken but, ultimately, remains the resistance to watch.

Could we see price moving higher in the next session, overcoming resistance provided by the declining 100dMA? We could. Could we see price being pushed lower in the next session and perhaps retest supports? We could.

Huh? What am I saying? The usual and that is TA is about probabilities and not certainties. At this moment, the odds are 50-50 that it could go either way.

What have I done? Seeing strong resistance at 71c, the last high, I did a partial divestment today at 70.5c. If price were to weaken from here to retest supports, I would buy more. If price were to move higher, I have more to sell.

If price were to move higher, we could see 72c and 73.5c tested as resistance. Ultimately, we could see gap cover at 76c. Sounds good? However, if price were to move lower, expect immediate support to be at 69c, followed by 67.5c.

No matter how bullish analysts are, I would be cautious here as a possible head and shoulders formation is obvious in the chart. Therefore, without a higher high (i.e. higher than 73.5c), we are still on thin ice.

Related posts:
NOL and Golden Agriculture.
Golden Agriculture: Divestment at 70.5c.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REITs: Buy ups!

It is widely acknowledged even amongst private investors that Singapore's industrial real estate provides probably the highest yields compared to all other classes of real estate. Personally, I know of some really rich people who own one or a few industrial properties in Singapore. As I am not in the same league, I seek exposure through investments in industrial properties S-REITs.

I would draw your attention to a couple of past blog posts and if you have missed reading these, you might want to check them out:
1. Higher rents to benefit industrial properties S-REITs
(7 April 2011).
2. Industrial rent forecasts strongest for Singapore.
(17 April 2011).

Buying units of REITs which are trading below NAV is still something I do with the exception of Cache Logistics Trust which I bought at a smallish premium to NAV. I usually go for industrial properties S-REITs offering higher distribution yields, preferably closer to 10% per annum (adding to my investment in AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT when its price hit 19.5c and 20c in recent past and buying heavily into Sabana REIT in the last two weeks as its price hit a low of 90c).

Currently, I have investments in the following industrial properties S-REITs:

1. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT
2. Sabana REIT
3. Cache Logistics Trust
4. Cambridge Industrial Trust

Of the four, I am only interested in adding to Sabana REIT for reasons I discussed in an earlier blog post. Please read it here. I also said that I am waiting for an opportunity to partially divest my stake in AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and to move the funds into Sabana REIT. The opportunity should take the form of a rebound and when resistance is tested.

Remember I blogged about my disappointment in Cambridge Industrial Trust in an earlier blog post? It did not mean that I would dump my units at whatever price available at that point in time. I meant that I would divest at a price which is to my advantage. There is a time to buy and a time to sell. We can only hope that we get them right.

I was somewhat saddened when some readers told me that they sold away their units in the Trust after reading my blog post and the counter was still trading CD at the time. Read blog post here.

Now, with AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, we are seeing consistent buying ups for two sessions now. Today, a dragonfly doji was formed with 4,851 lots bought up at 21.5c and only 43 lots sold down at 21c.

Could the reverse head and shoulders I blogged about on 18 May be valid? Read blog post here. If valid, it would provide a chance for me to partially divest my stake in the REIT.

NOL and Golden Agriculture.

Today, my buy order for NOL at $1.80 was filled. NOL is in a persistent downtrend. Why am I buying more shares at $1.80 a piece? Well, it seems to me that a positive divergence is forming. As price broke the previous low formed on 5 May 2011, volume reduced comparatively. Sellers are less enthusiastic this time round.

The MACD histograms seem to be forming a higher low while the MACD has not turned up yet but could form a higher low too. A rebound could see a test of $1.88 as resistance in the near term. If it should happen, I would reduce my long position in the stock.

Today, my buy order for Golden Agriculture at 67c was also filled. This is at 1 bid higher than the support at 66.5c I identified in an earlier blog post. A hedge, nothing more. Why? Remember that I said we could be seeing the early stages of a head and shoulders formation when the price failed to form a higher high (that is higher than 73.5c)? I said that the neckline of that potential formation is at 65c. This case is still a possibility.

Of course, TA is about probability, not certainty, and we should make our moves accordingly. Today's white hammer formation is promising with price closing at 68.5c on relatively high volume. If price were to continue moving higher, immediate resistance is found at 70c. Closing above 70c could see 72c tested next.

Indofood Agri: A crash by any other word.

Indofood Agri's decision to list PT SIMP, its subsidiary, could lead to earnings dilution and we could see EPS reducing by as much as 12%. This is according to Goldman Sachs. Indofood Agri's share price, however, declined some 15.7% today, closing at $1.72 after touching a low of $1.69. Could there be an opportunity to buy some shares on the cheap?

I do not understand what is going on sufficiently and how the valuation is being carried out. Therefore, I will avoid. Good luck to anyone vested.

Indofood Agri falls on unit’s IPO pricing. “The IPO could pose downside risks to our IFAR earnings estimates through potential EPS dilution, as well as possible holding company discount once its main operating asset is listed separately,” said Goldman Sachs in a report.
Monday, 23 May 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

STI, Golden Agriculture, Capitaland and CapitaMalls Asia.

The STI closed 58.06 points lower at 3,110.48. There is probably some pain and some panic in the air and we have the usual doomsayers out in force today. So, going by what I have said, am I a bull more than a bear? I am neither a bull nor a bear. I like to think that I am a pragmatist.

Most of my portfolio is made up of REITs. Today, we see AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, Sabana REIT, Cache Logistics Trust, First REIT, LMIR, Suntec REIT and even Saizen REIT holding up rather nicely. So, I am not really affected by the sell off.

So, what did I do today?

1. Bought some Golden Agriculture shares at 68.5c a piece. You might remember that I said I sold all my shares in this company by mistake. I really want to keep some of its shares, believing in the longer term future of crude palm oil. The share price closed at 69c today.

I am not firing all my guns yet because we have to be wary of a potential head and shoulders formation. The neckline of this formation approximates 65c. If 65c were to be tested successfully on lower volume, we could add more aggressively to our long positions believing that, probably, the longer term uptrend is still intact. Of course, there is no way of knowing. So, I hedge by buying at supports. 66.5c support, if tested, would see me buying more. After all, buying at supports in an uptrend is conventional wisdom.

2. Although the trading volume of Capitaland increased today compared to the session before, it is still quite low if we compare it to 11 and 12 May which were black candle days too. Today, a black spinning top was formed and this is a reversal signal.  It needs confirmation, of course. Well, will price move lower? It could, of course. Keep an eye on $3.08, the previous low. It has to hold up in order for price to have a better chance of a near term rebound.

I bought more shares at $3.10 a piece today. This is a hedge as a retest of the previous low is a relatively safe entry as I am, after all, buying at supports. However, bearing in mind that supports can easily become resistance in a downtrend, the additional investment is a smallish one.

3. There is some similarity between CapitaMalls Asia's chart and Capitaland's. The volume is relatively lower compared to the volume back when the previous low was formed. I am also on the lookout for a possible positive divergence between the MACD and price.

I bought more shares at $1.60 a piece today as there seems to be a lot of fear in the air.

Allgreen: Privatisation offer at $1.60 per share.

I did a piece on Allgreen Properties on 12 April 2011. It seems that I have missed the boat ... for good. Well, these things happen. Absolutely no way to tell. Congratulations to all vested.

Read the post here.

Malaysian billionaire Kuok offers to buy rest of Allgreen stock. Brookvale Investments, owned by members of the Kuok group of companies, offered $1.60 in cash for each share in Singapore-based Allgreen, according to a filing by the developer to the Singapore exchange today. The stock last traded at $1.15.
Monday, 23 May 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

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CapitaMalls Asia: Mixed signals.

CapitaMalls Asia's chart is technically mixed. What is clear is that it is in a long term downtrend and, going by the momentum oscillators, it is very much oversold. A rebound from oversold conditions could see price retesting the trendline resistance which started on 6 October 2010. $1.82, perhaps.

With price closing at $1.64 on relatively high volume in the last session, below the natural support of $1.68, it remains to be seen if it could retest the low of $1.57 touched on 15 March 2011. Watch out, therefore, for a potential double bottom formation.

We want to see volume drying up if price should go closer towards the low of 15 March 2011 in such an instance. A higher low on the MACD would be promising too. The time to buy more shares of CapitaMalls Asia could be near.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Quiet resilience.

Cabernet Sauvignon (and beer).

This is my favourite wine as it is inexpensive and very drinkable. If I remember correctly, it costs about $14 a bottle at NTUC Fairprice:

I would have some wine once in a while but it would take me three nights to finish a bottle as I am not in the habit of having wine every night. So, often, I would have some leftover which I would have to throw away which is a pity. Here's the first glass I poured tonight:

Red wine is good for the heart and, of course, it warms up the body like all alcoholic beverages. It also promotes better sleep quality and I know I am in need of this recently.

Tonight, I drank more than I would usually. Only half a bottle left. I have stoppered what's left and, hopefully, I would be in the mood to finish it tomorrow night.

Cheers!
--------------------
Update: December 2016.

LMIR: Thoughts on partial divestment.

It has been a long time since I looked at the technicals of LMIR. Someone asked me if I would consider adding to my position in the REIT and I explained that I am still unhappy with how the management is losing millions of dollars quarter after quarter due to their foreign exchange forward contracts. So, not adding. Well, not unless price were to decline to provide a distribution yield closer to 10%. Nonetheless, the discourse got me curious enough to look at LMIR's chart.

The first thing that I saw was a negative divergence. As price moved higher, the MACD formed a lower high. In the last lower high on the MACD, price formed a lower high too. This is ominous. We have a potential head and shoulders formation. The neckline of this formation coincides with the rising 200dMA and would approximate 53c in the near future. If price were to break this neckline, we could see price going much lower. How low? 48c is a possibility. That would give me a distribution yield that is attractive enough to increase my investment in the REIT.

Should I sell now? Well, TA is about probability and not certainty. The head and shoulders formation could fail to deliver. However, as the bulk of my investment in LMIR was made in mid 2009 when prices were very depressed, a partial divestment to lock in some gains seems attractive in light of a possible significant decline in price.

Of course, these investments have already benefited from two years of income distributions as well and are likely to continue receiving regular distributions. There is no overarching need for me to partially divest but if I do, what price would be good for a partial divestment?

I would like to sell at resistance and it is obvious to me that immediate resistance is at 55c. However, Lippo is going to buy a big chunk of LMIR units from Mapletree LM Pte. Ltd. at 56c a unit. So, I think price could possibly go to 56c in the open market too. I have put in a sell order at 56c. Read announcement here.

How would things turn out? Only time can tell.

Bridgewater to buy 9% Lippo-Mapletree retail stake for $54.8m
Monday, 23 May 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Related posts:
LMIR: 1Q 2011 results.
To protect our wealth, we have to take risks.

Golden Agriculture: Divestment at 70.5c.

I am feeling the effects of age as it catches up with me or, perhaps, I just have too much on my mind lately.

It was my intention to divest partially at resistance and to keep some in case price should go higher. This has always been my style. Today, I made a mistake and sold all my stake in Golden Agriculture at 70.5c, the immediate resistance.

It makes sense to sell some at 70.5c not only because it is where we find the declining 100dMA, it also makes sense because of the declining volume as price tried to move higher in the last three sessions. A pull back would not be unreasonable.

Indeed, with the ADX suggesting a lack of any strong trend and the Stochastics showing signs of overbuying, we could see a pull back. A pull back would find immediate support at 68.5c. Breaking that could see price going lower to 66.5c. In a pull back, we want to see a higher low formed.

Of course, we could also see price moving higher although the candlesticks formed in the last two sessions, together with declining volumes, are somewhat uninspiring. Next resistance is still at 72c. Good luck to all still vested.

Tea with AK71: Korean noodles for lunch.

I had Korean noodles for lunch. No, I did not go to some fancy Korean restaurant nor did I go to a food court. I cooked the noodles myself in my office. Yes, you guessed it. Instant cup noodles! Well, in this case, it would be more accurate if we call it instant bowl noodles because it came in a big bowl! Oh, fork included too.

I have seen these noodles before and they are usually quite pricey. Yesterday, while shopping at NTUC Fairprice, I saw it under the "Must Buy" section and they were sold at $2.95 for three bowls! That is less than a dollar per bowl! Irresistible and I finally got to find out why so many people I know like it so much.

Chopsticks not included. I always have spare disposable chopsticks at work as I would take an extra pair each time I make purchases at the food centres. They come in useful in times like this, I dare say.

The noodles were cooked in five minutes. The spicy aroma was really mouth watering.

The noodles are thicker than the usual Myojo or Maggi variety. The soup base was full bodied and spicy. Not for anyone who would find hot food a challenge though. One bowl of noodles and I was really full. A tasty and value for money lunch!

Perennial China Retail Trust.

Perennial China Retail Trust (PCRT) is focused specifically on shopping malls but with a China focus. Although I am not usually interested in IPOs, I am curious about this one since I have vested interest in CapitaMalls Asia which has a large exposure in China.

PCRT has two objectives:
1. Provide unitholders with long-term capital growth from a steady growth in net asset value (NAV).
2. Provide unitholders with regular distributions from the income of its completed and stabilised assets.

PCRT will have an initial portfolio which includes:
1. 50% stake in Red Star Macalline Global Home Furniture Lifestyle Mall, Shenyang.
2. 50% stake in Shenyang Longemont Shopping Mall, Shenyang.
3. 100% stake in Foshan Yicui Shijia Shopping Mall, Foshan.
4. 100% stake in Chengdu Qingyang Guanghua Shopping Mall, Chengdu.

Only Red Star Macalline Global Home Furniture Lifestyle Mall, Shenyang, which was completed on 30 Sep 2010 is income contributing at listing date. The rest of the initial portfolio is expected to be completed from 3Q 2010 to 2Q 2014. If we are investing for income, this is not very reassuring.

However, PCRT has zero debt. This is attractive and also important as it would seek NAV growth through acquisitions. It has at least S$3.0 billion of pipeline projects in prime high-speed railway commercial development projects. Zero debt would probably mean that it would not have to be overly reliant on equity fund raising in the form of share placements and rights issues, at least in the early days.


PCRT's IPO has a price range of 70c to 76c and would raise between S$785,187,000 and S$852,580,000.

PCRT's forecast distributions (representing at least 90% of PCRT's distributable income):
2011's DPU 3.71c, representing a yield of 4.88% to 5.3%.
2012's DPU 3.86c, representing a yield of 5.07% to 5.51%.
Distributions are made half yearly.

From 2013, PCRT will distribute at least 50% of its distributable income. This might or might not mean a lower DPU since the rest of its initial portfolio would be contributing to distributable income by then with the exception of one property.

NAV per unit at date of listing is estimated at 67c.

Up till this point, there is little to interest me in the IPO. A distribution yield of 4.88% to 5.51% in the years 2011 to 2012 also does not provide enough compensation for the risks which investors are being asked to bear, in my opinion.

How does PCRT compare to CapitaRetail China Trust (CRCT)? Here are the numbers, as of 31 March 2011:
NAV/unit: $1.10
Gearing: 32.6%
Annualised DPU: 8.6c
Last done price: $1.26 which means a distribution yield of 6.83%.

With zero gearing, could PCRT do better than CRCT in future? Will the management be able to execute its future plans successfully? Forecasts are easy to make but whether the numbers would be realised is something else.

If PCRT's unit price were to fall to a much lower value and, in the process, offer a much higher distribution yield to compensate for the perceived risks, I could be interested then. Not now.

See PCRT's prospectus here.
See CRCT's 1Q 2011 presentation here.

-->

Perennial seeks to raise $843m in Singapore IPO: Update
Thursday, 19 May 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Golden Agriculture, Sabana REIT and AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT.

This is going to be a very quick post. Well, I hope it would be anyway as I am really tired today from work, mostly housework. All the housewives and maids have my deepest respect.

Golden Agriculture

Golden Agriculture provided some excitement today as patience finally paid off. A wickless white candle was formed on the back of much increased volume, breaking resistance provided by the 20d, 50d and 200d MAs in the process.

Immediate resistance is found at 70.5c as provided by the declining 100dMA. The strong buy up momentum today could probably spill over to the next session. We could see 70.5c tested and even broken. If it were to break, we could see the next resistance at 72c tested.

72c was a resistance level tested many times in the first half of April last month and it even broke briefly. Could we see price forming a higher high this time? Well, the upward trending channel suggests that this is a possibility but taking some profit at resistance can't be wrong either.

Sabana REIT

My thesis that Sabana REIT is going through a basing process could be right after all. The Stochastics is turning up from oversold territory while the MACD has turned up to close the distance with the signal line in negative territory.

So, no matter whether we believe Sabana REIT's unit price is range bound or trending down, support is obvious and downside is pretty limited for now.

90c remains the support to watch while continuing upward movement in price could see gap closed at 93c  and that would be the resistance to watch.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT

High volume white candle day. If we believe that price action saw the formation of a reverse head and shoulders pattern earlier in the year from February to April, we could see price going higher as the neckline at 21c has, once again, been overcome.

Could we see price breaking out of the downtrend this time round? Resistance at 21.5c remains rather formidable as it is provided by the 200dEMA and this was what prevented the unit price from moving higher in the second half of April last month. We shall have to wait and see. Good luck to fellow unitholders.

Well, this effort at a quick post took me almost an hour. I failed in my attempt. ;)

Related posts:
Golden Agriculture: Eyeing 96c per share.
Sabana REIT: Still waiting for a 10% yield?
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 4Q FY2011.