Golden Agriculture: 200wMA cleared.

Golden Agriculture closed above the 200wMA in the last session. Cleared of this hurdle, we could see its share price going higher from here.

It is interesting to observe that the 50wMA has been crucial as support, seeing how share price bounced off the line each time it was tested in the past.

It would not be unrealistic to expect any retest of the 50wMA to see strong buying interest.

Related post:
Golden Agriculture: 68c support.

First REIT: 2Q 2011 results.

First REIT's results are more or less in line with forecast with a DPU of 1.58c for 2Q 2011. The REIT will go XD on 28 July and income distribution is payable to unitholders on 29 August.

The REIT's strong numbers have been mentioned before and here's the update:

NAV/unit: 78c
Interest cover ratio: 15x
Gearing: 13.8%

I am pleasantly surprised that its management is planning to have a special non-recurring dividend to be paid from its divestment gain resulting from the sale of its Adam Road property. This could translate into an additional one off DPU of more than 1c in future.

Low gearing, high interest cover ratio and a distribution yield of almost 8% with a special dividend to boot. This REIT is rock solid and remains one of my best investments in years.

One of my best investments it might be but it would not pay to fall in love with it. Even great investments would not see share prices go up in a straight line. They climb a wall of worries. However, today's white candle was formed on the back of very high volume and we could see price pushing even higher in the next session. 85c next? Possibly.

Weekly

Daily

With price pushing beyond the upper Bollinger band, a pull back to supports would be a natural course. When? I would suspect it could happen when the counter goes XD. Immediate support at 80c? Or perhaps 79c? That's where the Fibo lines are on the daily chart.

Good luck to fellow unitholders.

See announcement here.
See presentation slides here.

Related post:
First REIT: Yield accretive purchase in South Korea.

Cambridge Industrial Trust: 2Q 2011 results.

The last time I blogged about this REIT was on 28 April and I was so negative about it that some readers divested their shares in the REIT straightaway. Read blog post here.

Now, I have to say this again that my blog is purely to share my thoughts, a place where I think aloud, so to speak. It is not to exhort anyone to buy or sell anything.

In a reply to a reader, OT, I mentioned that I would wait to see if I could divest my investment at 52c just to close a chapter (again). Even with mediocre investments, there could be a better time to sell.

Fundamentally, with a 2Q DPU of 1.036c, it translates to an annualised distribution yield of just 7.97% at the unit price of 52c.

Gearing at 32.7% and interest cover ratio at 5x are similar to AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT's.

The difference? AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT has an estimated distribution yield of 9.09% at the unit price of 22c. Money should go to where it is treated best.

Technically, the resistance as provided by the 200dMA at 51.5c was taken out convincingly today as price closed at 52c, forming a long white candle in the process.

A breakout? It seems to be the case and we could see price test 53c in the near future. I have entered my sell order.

See presentation slides here.

CapitaMalls Asia: Interim dividend declared.

Today, during lunch hour, when I read that the management is declaring an interim dividend of 1.5c per share (XD on 31 August and payable on 16 September), I immediately put in a buy order. I feel that it is a generous payout for a growth company and testament to the fact that it is doing well.

2Q 2011 EPS: 4.2c
1H 2011 EPS: 5.5c
NTA per share: $1.52

See presentation slides here.

Its share price closed at $1.45 today. This is at support. We shall have to wait and see if it would go higher from here. I see gap resistance at $1.55 and if it were to be overcome, we could see $1.64 next. Will my purchase today be rewarding? I wonder.

CapitaMalls to ‘latch on’ to China to secure growth prospects
Thursday, 21 July 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

CapitaMalls Asia Q2 net profit doubles on revaluation gains
Thursday, 21 July 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

NOL: A quick trade.

On 12 July, NOL formed a white candle and I mentioned that I was wary of its reliability as it was formed on relatively low volume. I also used Fibo lines to determine where stronger supports could be found. Then, I added to my long position at these supports. See blog post here.

On 19 July, NOL formed a white hammer and I wondered if price could rise to test $1.45. See blog post here.

For the last three days, I have been in the queue to sell at $1.45. Today, it was done.

With price closing at $1.42, will it be going lower from here? I am not so sure because I see a higher low on the MACD. A positive divergence has formed, it would seem. If $1.45 were to be taken out convincingly, we could see price going higher to $1.56.

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Noble Group, NOL and CapitaMalls Asia.

Just a quick look at some charts:

Noble Group's share price formed a bullish engulfing candle on high volume. If we turn on the MA envelope, we see how it touched the lower boundary and bounced off. Stochastics is in the oversold region and could turn up. Could share price rise to $1.90?

NOL's share price formed a white hammer on high volume. Similarly, Stochastics is in the oversold region and could turn up. Could it rise to $1.45?

CapitaMalls Asia. Connecting the lower highs since 6 October 2010 makes me wonder if we could see the downtrend resistance tested again. Likely to be a long drawn process. Will probably have to see gap closing at $1.55 first.

Good luck.

Capitamall may explore purchase of Ion mall next year, CEO says
Tuesday, 19 July 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Noble Group, Altius to set up oil seed plant in South Africa: Update
Tuesday, 19 July 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

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Sabana REIT: Safe to buy now?

Someone who managed to get some units of Sabana REIT at IPO asked me if it is safe to buy more units of the REIT now? Before the counter announced its first income distribution of 3.04c, I blogged about how I felt Sabana REIT was a great investment then.

Of course, there were nay sayers and people who told me I was wrong. There were also many who got in at the REIT's IPO and were burnt, refusing to look at the REIT anymore. There was also a friend who refused to be vested in the REIT simply because it is Shariah compliant. Now, that really boggles the mind but I suppose there is no accounting for such things.

Before I drift off too much in my discourse, back to the original question. Answer: I don't know if it is safe to buy more units of the REIT now. How's that for an answer? People keep asking me for absolutes and assurances. Well, they will keep getting disappointed.

Fundamentally, Sabana REIT is likely to continue doing well. Its numbers are strong and future income distributions over the next few quarters are likely to remain in line with forecast, everything else remaining constant. Even at today's high of 94.5c/unit, the REIT would still be trading at a discount to its NAV/unit of 98c. Distribution yield is 9.32% at 94.5c/unit with an annual DPU of 8.81c.

Technically, it is clear that Sabana REIT has seen its bottom. Price has been rising and seems to have hit resistance at 94.5c. Does it mean that price would go back down from here? No but if it does, the immediate support is at 93.5c (20dMA). This is followed by 92.5c (50dMA) and 92c (many times tested candlestick support). In the last session, it closed at 93.5c.

On the weekly chart, it is interesting to see that the Bollinger Bands are in the early stages of a squeeze. With unit price rising steadily in the past few weeks and staying above the 20wMA, chances that price could go higher in the coming weeks are fairly good. I have an immediate target of 95.5c, followed by 96.5c in case price moves higher.

A reader asked me for my estimate on the fair value for the REIT, seeing how the fair value I ascribed to First REIT some time back has come to pass. For a smallish REIT such as this, I expect an 8% distribution yield to be fair and that would, in turn, suggest a fair value of $1.10/unit for the REIT. Now, before you get too excited, that's only what I feel the fair value is. It is, by no means, the Gospel truth.

If Sabana REIT were to retest supports at 92.5c and 92c, I would probably be buying more. Good luck to all vested.

Related post:
Sabana REIT: DPU of 3.04c.
First REIT: XR and fair value.

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Noble Group: Caught a falling dagger?

Today, for the first time ever, I became a shareholder of Noble Group. I will confess that I do not understand the business and that going long here is taking on quite a bit of risk. Then, why did I do it? Let me share with you what's on my mind.

The share price of Noble Group is, undoubtedly, in a downtrend. I drew two trendlines, one connecting the lower highs and one connecting the lower lows. A down channel becomes quite clear. I see the channel support at $1.78 and that explains why I put in a buy order at that price, which was filled in the late afternoon today.

That a big black candle formed on the back of heavy volume is very ominous and it would not surprise me if the share price were to sink even lower next week. So, why take the risk of going long now? Why did I not cancel my buy order? After all, it was only filled late in the afternoon.

Well, the fact that the share price tested channel support alone would not have enticed me to enter. The MACD which looks like it has a nice chance of forming a higher low is an important factor too. Therefore, even if the price were to sink lower, as long as the MACD forms a higher low, we would have a positive divergence.

Am I not pre-empting then? Yes, I am and, yes, I agree that disciplined traders should not do that. I have said before that I am not a good trader and this is still true. After all, there is a chance that the MACD could form a lower low which means no positive divergence.

If the share price were to move higher next week, I would use the declining 20dMA as a guide to determine a price for divestment. Price could move higher to test resistance as provided by the trendline as well. I guess it is up to the individual to decide how much risk he is willing to take and how much gain is enough for him.

In the event that the share price were to move lower, I would not rush to average down my price, I would wait and see how things develop. Losing money in a trade is not as bad as losing our cool because of one.

NOL: A white candle.

A white candle formed on NOL's chart today. For most of the day, I saw a black spinning top after its share price gapped down at the start of the day. So, the rather large buy up, after market closed, which pushed up NOL's share price to close 1c higher was somewhat surprising.

However, the white candle was formed on lower volume compared to the previous session's black candle. Share price could possibly have risen due to short covering and not because of an abundance of buyers.

The white candle also did not manage to cover even half the length of the previous day's black candle. So, a white candle is nice but it might not mean that NOL has found its base.

Share price did touch a lower low today at $1.41 while the MACD flattened. This is encouraging. If the MACD should turn up clearly in the next session or two, we would have the positive divergence which I mentioned in my previous blog post on NOL.

Now, the MACD is a lagging indicator which is the case with other momentum oscillators. So, I would use Fibo lines to help suggest where I might find stronger supports for NOL's share price in case of further weakness.

I see the golden ratios at $1.39, $1.375 and $1.36. I could possibly add to my long position at these prices if they were ever tested as the chances of a positive divergence forming are rather good.

CapitaMalls Asia: TA update.

CapitaMalls Asia's share price did not experience the kind of explosive upswing Capitaland's did in the last session. However, it looks promising too in a subdued way as volume was pretty decent as price moved up a bit.

Daily:

 Weekly:

We could see gap closed at $1.55 in time. This would probably also coincide with the declining 50dMA sometime next week. Judging from the highs in the last two rebounds, the declining 100dMA or 20wMA are the ones we should keep an eye on.

In a very strong rebound, we could see price going above the 100dMA and testing the downtrend resistance. Regular readers probably know what I would do in such a case.

NOL: TA update.

NOL has been one big disappointment. So, is this the fault of the counter? Nope. We can only be disappointed if we have expectations and when they are not met. It was a mistake and I will accept it as such.

However, downtrends are rivers of hope. NOL's share price could be overdue for a rebound. This does not mean that I think a rebound is imminent though.

Look at the daily chart and we could see the potential for a double bottom set up or a positive divergence. Wait to see if the recent low of $1.44 would be tested again. If it were to happen on much thinner volume before turning up, it would be good news for bulls. Or if a lower low in price were to be formed with a higher low on the MACD, we would have a positive divergence. In either scenario, we could have the conditions for a rebound which could test resistance provided by the declining 50dMA which coincides with the downtrend resistance.

In a downtrend, sell at resistance.

Capitaland: TA update.

What an amazing run up Capitaland's share price had in the last session. That the run up was accompanied by huge volume is good news for bulls. Short sellers were probably scrambling to cover their positions in the last session, surprised by the buying strength.

Anyone who added to their long positions or initiated one in the last few sessions would be wise to search for exit points, if they have not done so already. Why? Make no mistake, Capitaland's share price is still in a downtrend. Only if it were to break out of resistance provided by the declining 100dMA in a convincing manner could we say that the downtrend is broken.

Resistance provided by the declining 100dMA? Divest at resistance? In a downtrend, that would be conventional wisdom and something I would do.

Golden Agriculture: 68c support.

In my last blog post, I said that chances of a breakdown in price are higher. I have been proven wrong by Mr. Market, once again demonstrating the risky business of guessing Mr. Market's future movements.

Golden Agriculture's share price touched a high of 71.5c on very high volume before closing at 70.5c in the last session.

People ask me if the price could go higher? Well, only Mr. Market knows. What we know is that 68c is now support and 71.5c remains a significant resistance. Overcoming 71.5c could see price going higher and we could even see the gap closed at 76c. With such huge volume in the last session, chances are fair that this could happen. A pull back should find support at 68c.

Good luck to us all.

First REIT: Yield accretive purchase in South Korea.

First REIT has bought a hospital in South Korea. This has a nett property income (NPI) yield of 9% and is a yield accretive purchase. The purchase is most likely going to increase the distribution per unit (DPU) for unitholders since it will be fully funded by debt, increasing its gearing level from 13.8% to 16.4%. Expectations of a higher DPU could account for the recent strength of the REIT's unit price as it closed at 80.5c/unit in the last session.

I generally like the numbers and I also like the fact that the debt is to be a US$ denominated bank loan. Expecting the US$ to continue weakening against Asian currencies in time, I believe this to be a good idea. However, it remains to be seen if the management would be able to manage this single property so far away from S.E. Asia efficiently.

For example, the recent divestment of its single property in Japan by AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT was a prudent move as it could not benefit from any economies of scale having only one property in Japan and it chose to concentrate on its operations in Singapore instead. Could First REIT's latest acquisition be a bad idea in a hasty effort to expand the REIT's portfolio to the targetted $1b value? Time will tell.

Going back to dollars and cents, how much would the DPU be, post acquisition? Based on 9% NPI yield and the purchase price of S$16m, very roughly, I estimate an annual income contribution of $1.4m. The REIT currently has an annual NPI of about $60m. So, by proportion, we could see  >2% increase in DPU. The current DPU of the REIT is about 6.4c per annum. Not much to rave about but nice to have.

My investment in First REIT remains a relatively large one and it is likely to remain that way in the near future.

See presentation slides here.
See announcement here.

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Singapore industrial property market picking up!

People tell me to be careful about investing so much in industrial property S-REITs. They think it is going to experience a contraction in demand. I personally do not think so and shared my research here in my blog.

"According to Colliers International, average monthly gross rents for prime factory and warehouse spaces surged between 6 and 7 per cent on-quarter. This was the fastest quarterly growth in three years.

"But rents for all segments of prime factory and warehouse space are still below peak rates in the second half of 2008...

"Chia Siew Chuin, Director of Research & Advisory of Colliers International, said rents and capital values of industrial properties are expected to grow more moderately, in the range of 10 per cent in second half of this year." Read full article here.

For AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, leases representing 4.3% of its rental income are due to expire in the financial year ending March 2012. We could see some positive rental income growth and, therefore, higher DPU, everything else remaining equal. With its properties likely to enjoy another bout of revaluation upwards, we could see its gearing level dropping as well. Good news are in the pipeline, it would seem.

Good luck to fellow unitholders.

Related posts:
Higher rents to benefit industrial properties S-REITs.
Industrial rent forecasts strongest for Singapore.

Worst ever NDP song!

Legal issues aside, this song is really mindless.

We are celebrating National Day! We are suppose to celebrate Singapore's achievements and vision for the future!

How does this "Fun Pack Song" fit into the picture? It is demeaning! The organising committee should be taken to task! Definitely in bad taste.

Haresh Sharma, this is a joke!

I want Newater and I want a cold drink
You and me, let's share a bit
I want a biscuit and I want a sweet
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Puke nation!

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Hyflux secures funds of S$150m.

The Tuaspring desalination plant is part of a project expected to cost S$890 million, which the firm said it is "on track" to secure funds for this second tranche.

More fund raising exercises on the way, I think.

Related posts:
Hyflux: 6% perpetual Class A preference shares.
Hyflux: $800 million bridge loan.

Male cheerleader brings it on!

Thoroughly entertaining and somewhat disarming!

Golden Agriculture: FA and TA.

I retain a very small long position in Golden Agriculture. The price of crude palm oil (CPO) has made a new low for 2011, closing at RM3,040.

"Inventories are likely to accumulate in the coming months, unless prices fall to around MYR2,700-MYR2,800/ton, levels that might spur strong physical demand for the commodity and prompt traders to buy on dips, said a trading executive in Kuala Lumpur...

"June output is expected to rise 7%-10%, from 1.74 million tons the previous month, and end-June stocks could rise by as much as 24% to 2.38 million tons." Dow Jones Newswires, July 05, 2011 07:17 ET (11:17 GMT).

The longer term fundamentals, given the strong and growing demand for the vegetable oil, are still intact. However, short term weakness could present rather strong downward pressure on prices. Therefore, I am exercising caution and not adding to my long position in Golden Agriculture. This decision is also informed by technical analysis.

If we look at Golden Agriculture's daily chart, the symmetrical triangle is quite obvious. Two thirds to its apex, we could see a movement breaking the triangle in the near future. Up or down? With price finding it hard to recapture support provided by the 200dMA, the bias is towards the downside. With the ADX indicating a lack of trend, look to the Stochastics for clues. It is turning down from the border of the overbought region. Some softness in the counter's share price would not be surprising.

A look at the weekly chart shows that the Stochastics has broken support. A weakened momentum is obvious. If price were to break the symmetrical triangle to the downside, we could see a test of support provided by the 100wMA. 61c? Could happen.

Long holders could be walking on thin ice here. Good luck.


Related post:
Golden Agriculture: Strong resistance.

Capitaland: Weekly chart.

Capitaland seems to be enjoying a respite.

A quick look at the weekly chart suggests that a retest of the declining 20wMA as resistance is likely. It could happen this week or the next couple of weeks.

If I were to hazard a guess, it could be at $3.14 if it should happen as that is also where we see some resistance provided by the candlesticks. However, volume declined in the last couple of weeks. So, this brings into question whether recent strength is sustainable.

Wait and see.

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Silver: Price formed another lower high.

Staying cautious on silver has been the right thing to do. The declining 50dMA seems on track to forming a dead cross with the 100dMA in the near future with silver's price forming another lower high this week, closing the week at US$ 33.70 an ounce.

All eyes are on the 200dMA and whether silver's price could stay above this long term moving average. If the support holds up, we could see bulls coming back with a vengeance. If the support breaks, the bears could have a field day. The 200dMA is currently at US$ 31.71 an ounce.

A quick look at the weekly chart shows that the uptrend is still intact although the momentum has clearly weakened. RSI has gone under 50% which was acting as support. A lower low on the MACD is a forgone conclusion although it is currently still in positive territory.

I am maintaining the status quo. This is a time of waiting and could be a most unbearable period. A time to add to long positions would come and that is probably when the supports provided by the longer term MAs hold up. Till then, I just have to sit tight.

Related post:
Silver: Trying to find a base.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 2nd AGM.

Northtech

Some readers are concerned that I am divesting my investment in AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT. Is there a change in its fundamentals? Is it going down from here?

 I did blog about my reasons for partially divesting my investment in AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT. In a nutshell, I am just re-balancing my portfolio to reduce over-exposure to this REIT. It is a risk management exercise, nothing more.

 If my total portfolio size were twice or thrice as large as it is now, I would probably not reduce my investment in the REIT. I could, in fact, increase my long position in the REIT. Now, how's that for re-assurance?

 The presentation at the second AGM shows a robust set of numbers:

Earnings per unit: 2.75c
Gearing: 31.9%
Interest cover ratio: 4.9x
No debt due until October 2013.

27 Penjuru Lane



What I would like to see is the REIT increasing the share of high tech space and better quality logistics buildings in its portfolio. Currently, high tech space account for only 17.7% of its portfolio.

Although its acquisition of 27 Penjuru Lane and 29 Woodlands Industrial Park E1 (Northtech) are steps in the right direction, it has to do more and stay vigilant, looking out for more yield accretive purchases.

The management also plans to carry out asset enhancements for selected properties in the year 2012. I like this since many of the REIT's properties have yet to take advantage of their plot ratios to the maximum. So, even without further acquisitions, we could see the REIT's distributable income increasing with asset enhancements.

After two years, this REIT seems well managed by the team from AIMS and AMP Capital and my leap of faith has paid off nicely so far. I look forward to more good news in future.

Substantial shareholders:
AMP Capital Investors (Luxembourg No. 4) S.A.R.L. 15.35%
Dragon Pacific Assets Limited 11.98%
APG Algemene Pensioen Groep N.V. 9.42%
Universities Superannuation Scheme Limited 8.19%
George Wang 7.19%

See presentation slides here.

My very first blog post on the REIT in December 2009:
AIMS-AMP Capital Industrial REIT (MI-REIT).

Related posts:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and Sabana REIT.
Balancing AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and Sabana REIT.
Mr. Market is always right.

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