CapitaMalls Asia: Rebounding.

At this point in time, the recent upmove of CapitaMalls Asia's share price is still a rebound. The MACD made a bullish crossover with the signal line but momentum is still negative. Make no mistake. The downtrend is still intact.

Volume has been declining over the last three sessions. How do we interpret this?

Although the bears were roughed up three sessions ago, bulls seem to lack conviction in following through. We can only wait and see if they do in the next session. For now, bears are staying sidelined, nursing their wounds, while bulls remain somewhat cautious.

Price touched a high of $1.375 in the last session which coincides with the resistance presented by the 50dMA. Overcoming this resistance could see gap fill at $1.395 and that is where I have put in my next sell order.

If we look at the orange line I have drawn, we will see that $1.395 also approximates the immediate downtrend resistance in the next session.

Breaking the immediate downtrend could send share price higher to test resistance provided by the declining 100dMA which is currently at $1.52.

Related post:

CapitaMalls Asia: Gap closed at $1.325.

Tea with AK71: Sambal mooncake.

There was much talk about mooncakes in LP's infamous cbox over at Bully the Bear today.

Fancy having some sambal mooncake at tea time? This must be the most "innovative" mooncake I have ever had.

My parents got this in a box of mooncakes from Star Cruises.

Quite clever the way they separated the spicy centre from the lotus paste, using dried coconut as a wall.

The taste is surprisingly good although for some who do not like spicy food or dried coconut, it might be difficult to accept.

Cache Logistics Trust: Gap closed at 96c.

The unit price of Cache Logistics Trust closed the gap at 96c in the last session.  A white candle with an extremely long upper wick was formed, suggesting strong selling pressure at 96c. 96c is also where we find the flatlined 50dMA which should also act as resistance.

I decided last Friday to put in a sell order over the weekend at 96c for a partial divestment in case gap resistance should be retested today. My sell order at 96c was filled this morning and I made some pocket money.

For people who believe in mini double bottoms, we could see the unit price test $1 if 96c should be taken out convincingly. I would divest more then. Otherwise, we could see unit price retreat to test recent lows once more and that is at 91.5c, my entry price months ago.

I will also be collecting income distribution from the REIT today. So, this is a nice combination of investing for income and capital gains. Regular readers would know that I am not averse to trading my investments in REITs from time to time.

Related posts:
Cache Logistics Trust: Initiated long position at 91.5c.

Tea with AK71: Family, friends, Abercrombie & Fitch and BPA free water bottles.

I had a restive long weekend. Long weekend? Yes, for someone who has to work half days on weekends, this was a nice long weekend for me. Hmmm, well, I did visit a customer for slightly more than an hour on Saturday but that's not really work. Just delivered mooncakes and had a chit chat.

So, what did I do this "long weekend"? I had tim sum with my family, caught up with some friends and did some shopping. Spent some money (quite a lot by my standards) and helped to stimulate the economy, not that the economy needs much stimulating. The restaurants were packed! The shopping malls were packed!

Tim sum was at East Ocean Teochew Restaurant in Shaw Centre. I took some photos of the more creative pieces (only available on weekends and public holidays) with my trusty Samsung phone camera (as usual):

Penguins! These had lotus paste and salted egg fillings. Yummy!

So cheerful, right? Almost couldn't bear to eat it.

The one on the right didn't look as cheerful but it was still cute. :)

Called "Ugly Ducklings", these were a bit like "wu kok".

These were filled with "mei cai", the same vegetable that they would have with stewed pork.

Looks like a duckling, doesn't it?

This is a photo of the gigantic poster at Knightsbridge (the former Crown Prince Hotel) some two or three stories tall where Abercrombie & Fitch  is going to have their second branch in Asia.

Apparently, it caused a Singaporean auntie some distress, enough to write in to the papers, saying that it was indecent and that people turned away when they walked past it. I don't see why is it indecent.

Actually, I saw people (male, female, young and old) taking out their phones and snapping pictures of it while waiting to cross at the traffic lights. So, what do you think of it?

Apart from spending money at restaurants and cafe, the only other place I spent money at was in a Nike shop, where I bought four BPA free plastic water bottles for myself and my family.

Barley drink not included.

I think not enough people realise that harmful chemicals leach from plastic water bottles into the water they hold. We should make sure that the plastic water bottles we use are BPA free.

I also paid my bills at an AXS machine, got a friend a belated birthday present, got a pair of socks and had a haircut at QB House in 313 Somerset. I like the haircut too. Definitely a nice weekend!

Tuesday is a holiday again! Selamat Hari Raya! Yeah!

CapitaMalls Asia: Gap closed at $1.325.

The last time I blogged about CapitaMalls Asia was on 15 August. At that time, I detailed the reason for not adding to my long position. That reason was technical in nature and is still valid today.

I did not sell as price went lower, saying I would only sell as price rebounds to test resistance. Downtrends are rivers of hope.

Yesterday, CapitaMalls Asia's share price rose dramatically on extremely heavy volume from an oversold position. Such moves usually have strong momentum which would carry over to the next session. This morning, it did just that and my overnight sell order at $1.325 was filled.

Why $1.325? This is where we find a gap resistance and gaps would usually be filled. Price touched a high of $1.33 and if we look at the chart, this is where we find the immediate downtrend resistance.

If $1.33 should be overcome convincingly, we would almost certainly see the counter's share price going higher. Why? Closing above $1.33 would signal to market participants that the immediate (and steeper) downtrend is broken. Long holders might return and more short sellers would cover their positions. This is a powerful combination that would usually push price higher.

In case the immediate downtrend is broken, we will find the next two gap resistance at $1.395 (approximating the 50dMA) and S$1.55 (approximating the 100dMA). I also expect the next downtrend resistance (which I drew in orange color) to be more formidable.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Pre-emptive strikes failed.

Money continues to flow into Singapore.

Singapore continues to attract inflows of money. I have friends from USA and Europe who are parking their money in savings accounts in Singapore although they get only 0.1% interest. Why? The Singapore Dollar has been appreciating against their home currencies and is likely to get stronger.

Singapore also has a AAA rating when it comes to sovereign bonds. This has been attracting much attention. The latest to announce intention to invest in Singapore bonds is Schroder Investment.

Does it stop at bank deposits and bonds? Emphatically, no. Hot money is hungry for productive assets in Singapore. The rising supply of money has kept interest rates low, creating a credit boom. This is a big reason why prices of condominiums, especially those in the luxury segment, have shot through the roof in recent times.

The last I heard, some people with a lot of money have turned their attention to industrial properties in Singapore as yields on residential properties are relatively low at about 4% now. Will industrial properties see their prices pushed up next?

The rising value of the Singapore Dollar and continuing inflow of money into our country has created problems for our industries as well because our exports become less competitive. As it is, our GDP shrank 7.8% in the last quarter.

I believe that the Monetary Authority of Singapore has to limit hot money inflows or cap gains on the Singapore Dollar and soon.

Singapore bonds attract Schroder with Asia’s sole AAA ratings
Thursday, 25 August 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

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Saizen REIT: Full Year 2011 results.

I have not blogged about Saizen REIT for some time now because there is nothing really significant to analyse after its CMBS for YK Shintoku was successfully paid up a few months ago.

I divested my investment in the REIT partially when its unit price rebounded after hitting a low in the aftermath of the triple disaster of earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis in March this year. This is because of the possibly more difficult economic circumstances which would plague the country as it feels the impact of the immense damage fully over time. Technically, it also looked as if further upside in unit price could be capped. As the situation lacks a level of clarity which I would require to invest with a peace of mind, partial divestment was the way to go.

Yesterday, Moody's cut Japan's government bond rating to Aa3 from Aa2. The new rating is three notches below Moody's top Aaa rating.

While pointing out that more than 90% of Japan's debt is held domestically, I have also acknowledged in the past that debts will have to be repaid in time as its ageing population draws down on its savings increasingly. While the downgrade by Moody's is hardly surprising and does not mean that Japan is collapsing in the immediate future, it does remind us that Japan's slide downwards has not stopped.

Having said this, I still retain a rather significant investment in Saizen REIT in absolute dollar terms as I still like the idea of having exposure to freehold residential property in a country where two thirds of its population rent the homes they stay in.

The REIT's gearing level has also dropped to just 24% and its NAV per unit (adjusted for warrants) is a relatively high 29c. Interest cover ratio is a tad low at 3.1x. DPU of 0.5c has been declared for 2H 2011 (payable on 16 Sep). An annualised DPU of 1c with a unit price of 14.9c would mean a distribution yield of 6.7%. Pretty decent.

In 1H 2012, six months later, we could see a higher DPU as a full six months income generated by YK Shintoku would be distributable to unit holders. However, bearing in mind that many properties were divested to repay its CMBS, some might question if such contribution would be significant? From memory, YK Shintoku had a very large portfolio of properties and, again based on memory, we could see DPU bumping up some 10% possibly.

The same rating agency that downgraded Japan's debt rating raised Saizen REIT's debt rating from Caa1 to B1. This is good news as it could make financing more readily available and at a lower price for the REIT. The management has mentioned its desire to raise gearing level to 35% and the better rating should help.

Saizen REIT remains a recovery story in the making. We can only wait and see if the expected more difficult economic conditions in Japan will present any challenges for the REIT in time.

Read article here:
Moody's downgrades Japan's debt rating citing large budget deficits and government debt.

See Full Year 2011 presentation slides: here.

Related articles:
Japan's debt issue and Saizen REIT.
Sanity prevails with more good news.

Dr. Marc Faber: How not to lose money?

I have the greatest respect for Dr. Marc Faber and his insights have so far been spot on. In a recent interview, he said "I am ultra-bearish about everything geopolitically. In an environment of money printing, we have to ask ourselves, how do we protect our wealth? ... Where do we allocate the money?"

In summary:

1. Treasuries:

"U.S. government bonds are junk bonds," Faber said. "As long as they can print, they can pay the interest. But another way to default is to pay the interest and principal in depreciating currency." (AK71: Yup, countries inflating their way out of hard times has been done before.)

2.  Cash:

Specifically, the problem in Faber's view is the loss of purchasing power as inflation whittles away the value of money. (AK71: I believe he is referring more to the US$ and also the Euro. The S$ has been strengthening and we are still seeing inflationary pressures but it would be much worse for the US$ and the Euro.)

3. Stocks:

If you print money, stocks will not collapse. (AK71: I am sticking to my plan like glue! Remember my plan?)

4. Emerging markets:

Faber's own stock portfolio is centered on dividend-paying Asian shares, particularly in Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Hong Kong. These include a variety of real estate investment trusts and utilities. (AK71: Honestly, I knew that he was a fellow investor in Hyflux Water Trust but I did not know that he is also into REITs! I like this. Stick to the plan!)

5. Gold:

Faber is convinced that the price of gold will continue rising and that any pullback is a buying opportunity. And as a currency, Faber said gold should be held in its physical form and not in shares of gold miners or even exchange-traded funds. (AK71: I have recently replied to a reader that I feel that I am underinvested in gold and silver. However, being in Singapore and having S$ denominated assets, I feel much safer.)

Read complete article here.

Related post:
1. Sleep well at night with a plan.
2. Hedging and precious metals.
3. Hyflux Water Trust: Privatisation.
4. Staying positive on S-REITs.

Sleep well at night with a plan.

Today's selling in the stock market here has not affected all counters in equal measure. In fact, for the vast majority of my portfolio, the selling has not been a big thing.

When there is strong selling down in the market, I am more interested in buying but not indiscriminately, mind you. I have a plan and I am sticking to it like glue.

Regular readers might remember me saying that I would like to accumulate the following counters if they should hit their next support levels:

1. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT @ 19.5c/unit
2. Sabana REIT @ 83c/unit
3. First REIT @ 71.5c/unit

So, did I buy anything today? Nope.

Some people have advised me, with good intentions I am sure, to wait longer and I could perhaps get these at even lower prices. Indeed, what they think could happen just might. Really.

However, remembering how no one can time the market bottom, I have decided to pace myself as I buy at supports. I am more an investor than a trader, after all. I invest in these REITs for income and with distribution yields of 8+% to 10+%, everything remaining equal, they are pretty good investments.

In the last bear market, many who were expecting the market to bottom at 1200 points were sorely disappointed and quite a few missed the ride up. Those who bought at 1400 points or higher anyway were amply rewarded over the next one year and more.

This time round, I see many people are once again predicting where the bottom might be over the next few months. I won't go there.

So, what is my plan in a nutshell?

I might still indulge in some counter trend trading if the technicals look promising and I will continue to invest for income, adding at critical supports. I will continue to be invested in the stock market but keep a warchest for future acquisitions at bargain prices if they should present themselves.

This way, if the stock market reversed to move higher, I would not bang my head against the wall. Of course, if the stock market should move lower instead, I would have the resources to add to my long positions.

My plan is good for me but it might not be good for you. In fact, I am very sure that it is not good for everybody. Take stock of your own situation and decide what is best for you.

What is best for anyone, however, I believe, is usually a strategy that will allow the person to sleep well at night. That is priceless.

STI drops 3.2% to 2,733.63 at closing
Friday, 19 August 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Another bloodbath?

At this very moment, stock markets in Europe and the U.S.A. are down between 3+% to 6+%! Will Asian markets be drenched in another bloodbath tomorrow? Buckle up because it seems like it would be a rough ride.

What am I going to do? Stick to my plan. What else?

If some of the counters I am eyeing should fall to my target prices, I will collect more. I am pacing myself as there is no way of knowing how much worse this will get.

Being invested for income, having regular dividends and income distributions will provide me with reliable cashflow during leaner times as I wait for the recovery which is bound to take place one day.

Stay invested in Asia. This is where all the growth is and will continue to be.

Read: DJIA falls below 11,000.

Singapore Presidential Election 2011.

Read online articles on the upcoming Presidential Election during my lunch break.

The candidates and what they say:

Tan Jee Say (symbol: heart):
1. The primary role of the Elected President is to act as a check on a possible rogue government.
2. Under the Constitution, the president has blocking powers in only five specific areas which include the reserves and key appointment holders.
3. On all other matters, the president has to act on the advice of the prime minister and Cabinet.
4. "I’m not anti—establishment. I’m for Singapore and my views are for the good of the country."
5. He added he estimates his campaign budget would run up to about S$200,000, and he would appeal for donations via his website from Wednesday night.

Dr. Tony Tan (symbol: spectacles):
1. Can help strengthen Singapore’s ability to weather the current financial uncertainties and protect its financial reserves.
2. Will raise issues dear to his heart, such as education, through formal and informal channels.
3. Will also champion the Singapore brand overseas, help raise the profile of local charities and encourage greater participation in sporting, cultural and artistic activities.

Tan Kin Lian (symbol: hand):
1. Intends to influence the government within the Constitution.
2. Views himself as being the only neutral and non—partisan candidate.
3. Wants to follow in the footsteps of the late former president Ong Teng Cheong.
4. Mr Tan said he has a shoestring budget of about S$50,000 for his campaign.

Dr. Tan Cheng Bock (symbol: palm tree):
1. Suggested that policies behind community—based groups like Mendaki, Sinda and CDAC be merged.
2. Dr Tan made clear he didn’t want to interfere in politics.
3. More than 1,000 posters and 200 banners have been printed, and volunteers are keen on securing the most visible spots.

I do not like the idea that Tan Jee Say is asking for $200,000 donation from the public to fund his campaign. The amount seems too large and why can't he fund his campaign himself? I remember reading that he is a multi-millionaire private investor.

I like Dr. Tony Tan's credentials and I know GIC did much better compared to Temasek Holdings in the last recession too. He has the brains but he has always kept a rather low profile. However, his links with the PAP might work against him as the party is not at the height of its popularity now.

I also like Tan Kin Lian as, being familiar with his blog on finance and insurance, he seems to give good advice and cares for the common people. I like how he is campaigning on a shoestring budget of $50,000 and made no mention of asking for donations.

I like Dr. Tan Cheng Bock's honesty and integrity. I remember watching Parliamentary debates on TV in my schooldays and I was always impressed with how he would just speak his mind against policies if he felt it was necessary to do so. I also like his down to earth approach in campaigning. I think this is a good person who seems to be a good balance between Dr. Tony Tan and Tan Kin Lian.

The choice is a tough one. Who will you be voting for?

First REIT: Partial divestment at 79c.

I was working late today. Trying to figure out some computer related stuff and trying to get used to a new software. This is likely to remain a challenge for me at least over the next few days. I am definitely one of the least IT savvy people around but this is life, I guess.

Although I would like to crash into bed right now, I thought I should blog about my sell order for First REIT at 79c which was partially filled today. Sold some First REIT at 79c? Why?

Given the volatility in the stock market, I guess it should be a prudent decision to lock in some gains if we could. After all, the REIT is not going to distribute income for at least another three months down the road and there is a chance of further downside with sentiments so weak.

The black candle today was formed on the back of relatively low volume, however. Selling lacks conviction although it does not mean that price cannot drift lower.

77c, the low of the day, is where we find the 100dMA. 77.5c, the closing price, is where we find the 200dMA. These prices are immediate supports. If these were to go, I would expect price to go lower.

79c is a natural candlestick support turned resistance. If it should break on the back of higher volume, we could see gap covering at 81c. Before that, 80c should provide some formidable resistance for various reasons, technical and fundamental.

Good luck to fellow unitholders.

CapitaMalls Asia: Pre-emptive strikes failed.

Quite a few regular readers and friends are perplexed why I was buying shares in CapitaMalls Asia when it is clearly in a persistent downtrend. I replied that I was pre-empting a possible reversal as it looked like a positive divergence could emerge. Today, that possibility went out the window as the MACD formed a lower low as price weakened.

So, the technical reason I had for buying more shares in CapitaMalls Asia is no longer valid and I will not add to my long position anymore until the picture changes. Will I cut loss? I will only do so in a rebound. I will not do so as price goes lower. That has been my practice.

Prices rarely go up or down in a straight line. They climb a wall of worries and go down a river of hope. With CapitaMalls Asia, a rebound in share price could see gap filling at $1.325 per share. Whether this will happen or not, nobody knows for sure. If it happens, I will reduce my exposure.

Fundamentally, I still like the company's exposure to the growing middle class in China. These people have greater discretionary spending power and shopping malls in China will see strengthening demand over time. This will translate to higher asking rents and higher valuations for malls.

I also like how the RMB is likely to strengthen in time and this would mean that the NAV of the company will only go higher in S$ terms. How long will this take? Your guess is as good as mine.

Only one person knows for sure and he is Mr. Market. He will decide when the share price of the company will trade higher. Having failed to pre-empt Mr. Market's movements successfully, it is now back to basics while I wait for clearer signs.

Related post:
An elaboration on my methods.

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Should we be staying invested or in cash?

All of us know how pathetic interest rates on savings are for quite some time now and with the U.S. Fed pledging to keep interest rates low for another two years or so, it does seem as if low interest rates are here to stay, even in Singapore.

We also know that the ultra low interest rate environment is pushing up prices of almost everything. Inflation? You bet. Is this going to persist? It certainly could. If it does, then, my decision to sell my properties in recent months might not be that brilliant after all.

However, if we remember basic economics, we will recall that prices are a function of supply and demand. With many more new homes to be completed from 2012 to 2015, we could very well face a supply glut in future. This is probably quite well documented by now but I will run through the numbers once more:

Year 2012: 
15,457 new homes to be completed.
Year 2013: 
17,111 new homes to be completed.
Year 2014: 
21,680 new homes to be completed.
Year 2015: 
22,520 new homes to be completed.
We should also bear in mind that, currently, there are still more than 30,000 completed homes unsold.
(Sources: URA, DTZ and Nomura.)

As long as demand remains strong, the supply could be well-absorbed. This would depend on the state of the economy and the level of confidence amongst buyers, of course.

To add to the supply glut concern, the very well publicised recent decision by the government to build more HDB flats and to build them faster is likely to weigh in on the matter. Read HDB has promised 25,000 more new flats next year, based on what it said the construction industry can handle.

So, when people ask me for my opinion on whether it is a good time to buy that investment residential property in Singapore, I usually would reply in the negative. However, when people ask me if it is a good time to buy their first home, that is a bit trickier. It really depends on how urgently they need that first home. Sometimes, if we have to pay a premium, we just have to do it. Who knows? Price could keep going higher although I do not think it likely through 2015.

What about me? I get the sense that many readers are wondering what I am going to do with the cash that will be coming in from the divestment of my properties. To be quite honest, I am not going to keep too much cash in my savings account for too long as inflation would rapidly erode its value. To that, some might say that because they are in cash, their cash is now able to purchase many more shares than it could a month ago. This is certainly a valid point as well.

So, what to do? I must have said this a few times before but there is no other option for me than to stay invested but have a war chest ready. We want our money to work hard for us. At the same time we want our money to be able to purchase more shares at lower prices. Why? So, that our money could work even harder for us. Therefore, in the final analysis, whether we stay invested or in cash, the objective is the same: to make our money work for us.

While I was holidaying this weekend, I noticed that I have a lot more white hair. Family and close friends know that I think a lot. I think I think too much. ;)