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Courage Marine: Bought more at 10c per share.

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

For a while, it looked as if a double top was forming in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI). Well, the potential double top formation has been negated as the BDI broke resistance and looks set to form a higher high.



As most of Courage Marine's business is on a per trip basis and at spot rate, a higher BDI is good news for the company. If the BDI continues to rise into winter, it could turn out to be quite a good quarter for Courage Marine and it looks like it could happen.


Bloomberg reported earlier in the year that freight rates are poised to rise after hitting a two year low as owners of ships carrying coal and iron ore scrapped the most vessels in 28 years. Indeed, Courage Marine recently sold one of its vessels to be scrapped as well. Also, Malaysian Bulker Carrier predicted that the dry bulk market could do well in the medium term due to Japan increasing imports of coal.


Technically, the MACD has been rising since plunging to a low in negative territory in mid August 2011. Although momentum is still negative, the rising MACD suggests that momentum is improving.

If we believe that Courage Marine's share price is currently range bound without any trend, looking at the Stochastics reveals that momentum is closer to the lower end of the range, although not oversold. Any further upward movement in price could find initial resistance at 11c while support is at 9.5c.

Related posts:
1. Courage Marine: Added at 10.5c per share.
2. Double dip recession or just very slow growth?

Tea with AK71: Alkaline water.

Sunday, October 9, 2011

In recent months, I kept being bombarded by news about alkaline water. I hear about it on the radio. I read about it in the magazines and newspapers. I read about it in flyers given out at shopping malls. Is alkaline water really so amazing?


A few days ago, when I was shopping at NTUC Fairprice. I saw alkaline water on sale! These bottles were placed together with bottles of mineral water and distilled water. Price: $2.90 for a 2 litre bottle. Made in Singapore.

Anyway, the idea is that our body is very acidic and the food we eat is mostly acidifying too. So, to maintain a healthier balance, we need to eat alkalising food. For some time now, when I want a snack, I eat an orange, an apple, a handful of raisins, figs or almonds. These are alkalising. So, I guess drinking alkaline water is a natural next step.

I know there are companies which sell machines which would make normal tap water at home into alkaline water either through distillation or ionising processes. I don't think I can convince my mom to have one installed. She is skeptical about the health benefits of alkaline water. Frankly, I don't know for sure if the benefits are proven beyond a doubt as well. At $2.90 a day, I guess, it is worth a try.

Does anyone have any personal experience, good or bad, with alkaline water? Would you like to leave a comment to share your experience?

Er, in case you are wondering, this is not an advertorial. I don't make any money from blogging about this.  ;)

ARA: Partial divestment at $1.155.

Friday, October 7, 2011

When I was looking at ARA's chart last night, I decided that I should do a partial divestment. I would sell those shares I bought on 4 Oct, Tuesday.

Why? Volume was relatively thin. Up days accompanied by such thin volume are suspicious.

I decided that there would be resistance at $1.16 because that was the price at the start of two long black candle days and with high volume to boot.

Shareholders who had wanted to divest then but did not do so at $1.16 would remember that price. They would also remember how a low of $1.015 was hit by the close of the next day. That was a whopping 14.5c loss in just two days!


Mr. Market remembers extremes well and would try to divest if $1.16 should be tested. Today, the counter hit a high of $1.165 before closing at $1.15. The resistance at $1.16 was overcome only briefly. Closing at $1.15 means $1.16 is still the resistance to watch for now.

Using Fibo lines, we see that 61.8% approximates $1.18 and this is also where gap close could take place if the resistance at $1.16 could be taken out convincingly. The next higher resistance is at $1.23 as provided by the 50% Fibo line and the declining 20dMA.

Naturally, my next sell order is at $1.18. I could also place another sell order where the declining 20dMA is approximating. However, unless volume should increase meaningfully, it is hard to envisage ARA's share price moving much higher. Volume is, after all, the fuel that drives rallies.

As the MACD is still in negative territory and with no sign of a positive divergence, the shares bought on Tuesday were really for a quick trade on expectations that a rebound would materialise. So, I put in an overnight sell order at $1.155, just one bid below $1.16 where I expected some resistance. This was filled.

Locking in gains with a partial divestment is, I believe, the right thing to do. The counter is in a downtrend and we want to sell at resistance in a downtrend. I think that is what short sellers are waiting to do as well.

Related post:
ARA: A trading buy?

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 2Q FY2012.

Thursday, October 6, 2011

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT has suffered from negative sentiments and from some bigotry in the local investment community, no thanks in part to the acrimonious recapitalisation process of the former MI-REIT.

However, investors who were objective enough to recognise the stronger recapitalised REIT would have enjoyed some rather attractive income in the last two years.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT has delivered once again!

1. Distributable income increase 48%, year on year.
2. DPU of 2.5c, payable on 7 Dec 11, has been declared.
3. NAV per unit: $1.365
4. Interest cover ratio: 6.4x.
5. Gearing: 30%.

Although the annualised DPU of 10c (based on this latest set of numbers) will give us a distribution yield of 10.53% at today's closing price of 95c per unit, bear in mind that 20 Gul Way's redevelopment has started in August. This will likely result in lower distributable income in the coming quarters.

For my estimates, please see:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Consolidation and corporate rating.

See 2Q FY2012 results here.



LMIR: Circular to unitholders.

Wednesday, October 5, 2011


Two days ago, LMIR issued to unitholders a circular regarding the EGM to be held on 20 Oct with regards to the proposed acquisitions of Pluit Village and Medan Fair as well as the proposed 1 for 1 rights issue.

The management provided two sets of numbers, one which looks at FY2010 and another looks at 6M 2011. I would like to be a bit creative with the numbers to determine if LMIR is worth buying into at today's closing price of 45c per unit.

FY2010 had a DPU of 4.44c. If the DPU were to be replicated in FY2011, we would have a distribution yield of 9.87% at today's closing price of 45c per unit.

Taking into consideration the proposed acquisitions and rights issue, the management arrived at a pro forma DPU of 3.54c. At 45c, the TERP (theoretical ex-rights price) would be 45c+31c divided by 2 = 38c. This would provide us with a pro forma distribution yield of 9.32%. Distribution yield accretive? I think not.

More relevant perhaps is to use more recent numbers provided for 6M 2011. This gives a half year DPU of 2.26c which translates to a distribution yield of 10.04% based on today's closing price of 45c per unit.

Taking into consideration the proposed acquisitions and rights issue, the management arrived at a pro forma half year DPU of  1.63c. At the TERP of 38c, we would get a pro forma distribution yield of 8.58%. Again, is this distribution yield accretive? Clearly no.

So, will I subscribe to the rights issue? Although it is not distribution yield accretive, I will subscribe to the rights issue for two reasons:

1. The even lower gearing, post rights, of the REIT will allow more acquistions in future to be funded solely by debt. Another rights issue soon after this is unlikely. Therefore, we are likely to see DPU increase and distribution yield improve, everything else remaining equal. Very likely, this exercise will pave the way for future distribution yield accretion.

2. With a TERP of 38c, the pro forma distribution yield is estimated at 8.58% (using 6M 2011's numbers). This is definitely still very attractive considering what our money will make in a one year S$ fixed deposit now.

For anyone who is investing for income and who would be happy with a distribution yield of 8.5%, buying into LMIR at today's closing price of 45c is a viable option.

Read circular here.

Related post:
LMIR: Will I subscribe to the rights issue?

ARA: A trading buy?

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

2,531.02/-90.38/-3.45%
I remember reading an article recently in which Warren Buffet said he has his elephant gun ready and will scoop up undervalued companies if they should present themselves. With so much fear in the air and likely to get worse, we should do the same.

Do not feel fearful when there is so much fear in the air. Instead, get ready to load up on cheap stocks which, by the way, could get cheaper.

One company which I am eyeing is ARA Asset Management. By all accounts, this is a great company to invest in but at the right price, of course.


ARA is in a net cash position and has a net profit margin of 53.6% according to its 1H 2011 numbers! Yes, net margin, not gross! It also has a yearly dividend payout of 4.8c per share which seems sustainable.

NextInsight has two recent articles on ARA Asset Management. So, I shan't say more. Read: ARA Asset Management: resilient earnings, super high profit margins and steady dividends.

We have identified a good company to invest in. The question is what is a good price to buy at or when should we start buying?


On 23 Sep, I initiated a long position at $1.22 per share. Then, I said that although ARA is "a fundamentally sound company, its share price could weaken further from here. It might be a good idea to wait for the dust to settle before adding to my newly created long position." See blog post here.

On 26 Sep, I decided to add to my long position at $1.13 and these shares were divested on 29 Sep at $1.20 for a quick trade. Recognising that price could rebound before weakening again, the long position at $1.13 was more for a trade anyway. I was lucky it turned out nicely. See blog post here.

So, has the dust settled? It doesn't look like it. The MACD has continued its plunge deeper into negative territory as long black candles formed two days in a row on the backs of high volume. However, shares of ARA could be a trading buy. Why?


If we look at the Bollinger Bands and the MA Envelope, we will see that ARA's share price had in the past rebounded if it should break the lower limits. The rebounds tested and broke the 20dMA which acted as a weak resistance. The 50dMA then stopped the share price from moving higher. Could this happen again?

I added to my long position towards the end of the trading session today at $1.04, $1.035 and $1.03. If price should rebound to test resistance, I will offload these shares for a quick trade.  If price should continue to weaken, expect the next supports to be at 98c and 95c.


Looking at the weekly chart, it is clear that stronger support is at 89.5c. This is followed by 61.5c. If these supports should be tested, it will be some way to fall from the current level.

1H 2011 presentation slides here.

LMIR: Will I subscribe to the rights issue?

Sunday, October 2, 2011

It is clear that my complaint about the proposed rights issue is that it is not distribution yield accretive. In fact, it seems to me that the distribution yield could suffer quite significantly, post rights issue.

If I were to subscribe to the rights issue, it would be with the believe that the management will acquire more malls which are NPI yield accretive in the not too distant future using only debt. With its improved debt headroom by then, it should not be a challenge to acquire malls with a total pricetag of around S$450m using only debt.

Assuming that the purchases would have similar or slightly higher NPI yields as the REIT's current portfolio, this could improve distribution yield some 30 to 40% based on current estimates (ok, my estimates). So, subscribing to the rights issue would be akin to a confidence vote for the management.


If we believe that the global economy is going into a recession and that European entities could be recalling funds from Asia to address their financial problems back home, it is reasonable to assume that unit price of LMIR could suffer somewhat.

As there is no compelling reason in the present to subscribe to the rights issue, we could sell the nil-paid rights when they start trading in the hope that we could buy more units in LMIR at a much lower price in the event of a sell down.

Indeed, for some, they could even sell their units in LMIR when the market opens tomorrow if they feel that the proposed rights issue is a bad deal and, hence, will have no part in it.

How will Mr. Market react to the proposed acquisitions and rights issue? It is anyone's guess.

Will I subscribe to the rights issue?

Unlike the earlier rights issues of AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and First REIT, it is not a screaming buy.

Unlike the rights issues of CitySpring Infrastructure Trust, it is not raising funds to strengthen its balance sheet which means it is not a screaming sell.

Anyway, it is early days yet. I will stay rational and wait for more specifics, if any. I will see if there is more information forthcoming in the promised circular and at the EGM.

For readers who have the inclination, reading my past blog posts (and comments) on other rights issues might provide a window into my thought processes:

1. CitySpring Infrastructure Trust: Rights Issue.
2. First REIT: Rights Issue.
3. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Rights Issue.

Related post:
LMIR: Proposed 1 for 1 rights issue.

Office S-REITs VS Industrial S-REITs (2).

I thought I should share some information which I have taken from CBRE's report in Q2 2011 as I have recently received questions from readers on REITs which derive income from office space rentals in Singapore.


For office space, it is expected that "vacancy levels rises (are) inevitable in the next 6 to 12 months. This is the result of increased levels of new supply coming on-stream in addition to second-hand space returning to the market.

"It is apparent the government has been seeking to bolster office supply to facilitate business expansion and to ensure that operating costs remains competitive vis-à-vis other regional cities. Notably, some 1.84 million sf (GFA) of commercial space could materialise from two newly listed parcels – Marina Bay and Paya Lebar. The quality, quantity and competitive cost of Singapore’s office space over other regional cities positions the city state to attract businesses. With global uncertainty lingering, the test is whether this will boost occupier demand and prove to be a winning formula.

"Looking at the office supply pipeline, approximately 8.4 million sf of space is to be completed from H2 2011 to 2015. The GLS sites awarded in Q2 2011 contributed about 10.0% (834,000 sf) of the total. Along with the confirmed conversion of the Market Street Carpark, a Q2 2011 number of landlords/developers are in the midst of repositioning older office buildings through redevelopment. We anticipate that more supply will emerge in due course with the focus on Core CBD."


Therefore, it is understandable why I am not very sanguine about the prospects of REITs such as Suntec REIT and CCT which are heavily exposed to office space rentals. I am instead more sanguine about industrial space rentals.



"Driven by the limited upcoming supply of hi-tech space in the next few years, monthly rent for hi-tech space rose to $2.75 psf in Q2 2011, up from $2.65 psf in the previous quarter.

"Despite the slowing economic growth, demand for factory and warehouse space remains healthy....

"Monthly rental for factories and warehouses rose during the quarter on the back of continued demand. In Q2 2011, the average monthly rents for factory units rose by $0.10 psf q-o-q to $1.85 psf and $1.50 psf for ground and upper floor units respectively. Meanwhile, the average monthly rent for warehouses also rose by $0.05 psf q-o-q to $1.70 psf for ground units and $1.40 psf for upper floor units.


"During the quarter, the capital values for 60-year leasehold strata-titled factory space increased by about 8.0% q-o-q to $312 psf for ground floor units and $230 psf for upper floor units. The capital values for freehold strata-titled warehouse space increased by a smaller 5.0% q-o-q to $471 psf and $412 psf for ground and upper floor units respectively.


"There is still demand for industrial space. Some companies are scouting for a larger space to consolidate their operations and at the same time expand. As such, we can expect some rental upside in the next half of the year."


I shan't say which industrial property S-REITs I like. I think it is easy enough to guess, is it not?

Read complete report here.

Related posts:
1. Industrial rent forecast strongest for Singapore.
2. Office S-REITs VS Industrial S-REITs.

LMIR: Proposed 1 for 1 rights issue.

Saturday, October 1, 2011

I read with great interest the 1 for 1 rights issue proposed by LMIR. As regular readers know, I much prefer rights issue to private share placements as the former allows all unitholders to take part in the enlarged capital base of the REIT.


This rights issue is to raise some S$337m to help fund the purchase of two malls in Indonesia: Pluit Village and Medan Fair.  Pluit Village is to be purchased from the REIT's sponsor while Medan Fair is from an independent third party.

Pluit Village
Consideration: S$234m
Occupancy: 78.1%
NPI yield: 10.8%

Medan Fair
Consideration: $154m
Occupancy: 91.2%
NPI yield: 7.4%

Total purchase consideration is S$388m.  The proposed 1 for 1 rights issue at 31c per unit will raise some S$337m. The balance required for the proposed purchases will be funded by internal resources or debt.


LMIR's current NPI yield is 7.5%.  So, its purchase of Pluit Village is NPI yield accretive while that of Medan Fair is not. However, as the former is of a much larger value, it more than compensates for the latter. In aggregate, the purchase of the two properties is NPI yield accretive.

Now, is this rights issue good for unitholders?

The annualised distribution per unit (DPU) is estimated at 4c per annum currently. At the current unit price of 54c, that is a distribution yield of 7.4%. Subscribing to the rights issue at 31c per unit will give us an average unit price of 42.5c per unit. The number of units in issue will double while back of the envelope calculations show distributable income will increase only approximately 40%.

Therefore, DPU is likely to decrease to 2.8c per annum which will give us a pro forma distribution yield of only 6.59% based on the post rights unit price of 42.5c. So, this rights issue is not a good idea for unitholders who are investing for income. In terms of distribution yield, it is regressive.

Even if the management were to improve the occupancy of Pluit Village from the current 78.1% to 90%, it would not really make a difference.

This rights issue could be good in the longer run as it will probably send the REIT's gearing level to under 10% which will give it more debt headroom for future growth. It is perfectly reasonable to then question, with already such low gearing level in the first instance, why the REIT has to resort to such a large rights issue for these proposed purchases?

I have always thought of LMIR as a bullet proof REIT, a stable passive income generator. However, I have also been unhappy with their hedging policy which to me seems to suggest a mediocre management. I hope this rights issue is not going to prove me right (pun unintended).

Read announcement here.

Related post:
LMIR: Thoughts on partial divestment.

CapitaMalls Asia: Dual listing in Hong Kong.

Friday, September 30, 2011

Earlier in March, CapitaMalls Asia announced that it was exploring the option of a secondary listing in Hong Kong.

Today, it received in-principle approval and will list on Hong Kong's mainboard come 18 October.

"CapitaMalls Asia may not be raising new capital from its listing in Hong Kong, but the move will allow the mall developer to widen its investor base here in Hong Kong and by default China.


"This is expected to help improve its market visibility and trading liquidity - which then opens up additional sources of funding for the company."

Read complete article here.

Although I continue to believe in the fundamentals of CapitaMalls Asia as well as its longer term prospects, its share price is something else.


Technically, the counter's share price is very much in a downtrend. Selling into strength is, therefore, a sound strategy.

A movie: Real Steel!

When I was at the movies earlier this week, I saw the trailer for "Real Steel". Wow! I am so going to watch this!


This is a story set in the near-future where the sport of boxing has gone high-tech. It stars Hugh Jackman as Charlie Kenton, a washed-up fighter who lost his chance at a title when 2000-pound, 8-foot-tall steel robots took over the ring.

Now nothing but a small-time promoter, Charlie earns just enough money piecing together low-end bots from scrap metal to get from one underground boxing venue to the next. When Charlie hits rock bottom, he reluctantly teams up with his estranged son Max (Dakota Goyo) to build and train a championship contender.

As the stakes in the brutal, no-holds-barred arena are raised, Charlie and Max, against all odds, get one last shot at a comeback.

I like this kind of inspiring stories and with robots thrown in, the little boy in me cannot resist it!

Play the Real Steel game and win movie premiums.
Check it out:
http://sg.churpchurp.com/AK71SG/share/realsteel

Sabana REIT: Acquiring 21 Joo Koon Crescent.

Thursday, September 29, 2011


Sabana REIT is recently on an acquisition spree. Today, it announced the proposed acquisition of 21 Joo Koon Crescent. With this latest acquisition which will be funded fully by debt, its gearing level will bump up to 35%.

Property: 21 Joo Koon Crescent.
Consideration: S$20.274m.
Remaining lease: About 43 years.

If all its recent proposed debt funded acquisitions should be successfully carried out, it is reasonable to expect rather much higher distributable income starting 2012 which would bump up DPU, of course.

However, with pro forma gearing level at 35%, the REIT could possibly resort to some equity fund raising for future proposed acquisitions.

I am still sanguine about Sabana REIT's numbers and I will accumulate if there should be any weakness in its unit price.

Read announcement here.

ARA: Partial divestment at $1.20

I was hoping that ARA's unit price would retest resistance provided by the declining 20dMA yesterday after the rather nice white candle the day before. So, I was hoping that there would be a chance to sell closer to $1.30.


Unfortunately, yesterday's black candle was formed on the back of much higher volume as price tried unsuccessfully to move higher. The ADX is rising and the DIs are still negatively placed. Selling pressure was strong.

The white candle today had even lower volume than that of two days ago. The bulls seem to lack conviction. So, I decided to lock in some gains by divesting those units obtained at $1.13 recently at $1.20.

If price were to go higher from here to test resistance provided by the declining 20dMA which approximates $1.29, I could divest those units obtained at $1.22 last week. If price were to weaken, I could load up again if the immediate support at $1.11 should hold firm.

Tea with AK71: Ad by Abercrombie & Fitch is indecent!

On 28 August, I made a quick mention of the gigantic poster at Knightsbridge (the former Crown Prince Hotel) put up by Abercrombie & Fitch and how it caused distress to some people with more puritanical persuasion. They said it was lewd. Read blog post here.

This was a photo I took that day:


Indecent?

What if we were to put a 4 storey high statue of David by Michelangelo in the same location?


Totally indecent! Gasp! It does not even have a pair of jeans to hide the privates!

Or what about this famous painting in the Sistine Chapel (yes, in a Chapel) also by Michelangelo?


Anyway, the Advertising Standards Authority of Singapore (ASAS) in its infinite wisdom has decided that the ad is indecent and has called for the ad to be removed.

Why bother talking about being more vibrant in the arts when we are not even able to match the openess of the Renaissance period a few centuries ago?

Read article here.

Do you want to be a millionaire?

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Many people would like to be millionaires. There is something magical about having a million dollars in our bank account, it seems.

Of course, when we think about it, a million dollars these days is really not a big deal, especially when a DBSS flat in Tampines could cost almost as much!


I read an article in China Daily recently which is titled "After making a fortune, millionaires find a gaping vacuum in their lives". 

The article makes me wonder how many actually lost themselves in money making frenzies and, in the process, forgot why they want to be rich in the first place.

In China, it is almost as dangerous to be rich as it is to be a police officer as between "2008 and 2010 nearly two in every 10,000 multi-millionaires with a net worth of more than 100 million yuan lost their lives; for police officers, the country's most dangerous occupation, the death rate is three in every 10,000...

"Out of the 72 multi-millionaires and billionaires who have died in the past eight years, 19 died from illness; the rest died of unnatural causes...

"Of the 17 millionaires and billionaires who killed themselves over the past eight years, the average age was 50..."

The article made an interesting statement by saying the 

"poor can always nurse the hope of a better life.." 

while 

"wealthy entrepreneurs.. become confused over their original aim of making money."

Do you still want to be a millionaire? ;p

Related posts:
Passive income: A higher purpose.
No change to my plan as I plan changes to my life.

A wealthy doctor was strangled, shot and stabbed in his Florida mansion.

Win $80,000 cash or a Volkswagen Touran!

Monopoly is back at McDonald’s with over 3 million prizes to be won. Get your game labels with any Extra Value Meal purchase to win.


With over 3 million prizes be won including (1) $80,000 cash from Visa (2) Volkswagen Touran (3) A trip to Atlanta from Coca Cola and (4) A trip to Prague from Dynasty Travel plus many more.

And with over 3 ways to win in 2011 (1) Collect to win (2) Instant Win and (3) Chance Card all prizes must go.

The new Chance card also wins you $100 instantly and a final entry into the draw to win any unclaimed prizes.

Double labels on weekends also means you receive double the labels with any EVM purchased over the weekend period.

All prizes must go!

Start playing McDonald’s Monopoly today:
http://sg.churpchurp.com/AK71SG/share/mcd-monopoly2011

Meanwhile, want to win a $300 H&M voucher?
Play the Biore Marshmallow Whip Game:
http://sg.churpchurp.com/AK71SG/share/biore-marshmallow-whip-game

Good luck!

Have an iPad? Use Flipboard to follow my blogs.

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

I am probably one of the least tech savvy person around. So, for me to blog about technology is a rarity.

Ever since I started using an iPad, high technology is just a touch away. It is really a joy to use.

Recently, I was introduced to an app by a very good friend. The app is called "Flipboard".

The "cover" of Flipboard looks like the cover of magazines. It uses pictures from the publications we are subscribed to for its "cover".

I am able to keep up with my favourite magazines, newspapers and blogs all with this one single app!

Once we "flip" the cover, we search for publications to subscribe to and they will become a part of our Flipboard. It is that easy.

I really like how the introductions to articles in my blog are visually presented. Looks very professional, don't you agree?

If you have an iPad, you know what to do. Just go to the Apple app store and download Flipboard.

It is free and that makes me happy too.

Related posts:
1. Protect your iPad.
2. China prices, global deals.

First REIT, AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, ARA and Sabana REIT.

Monday, September 26, 2011

It is kind of late and I still have a long drive ahead of me. So, this will be a quick update with very simple charts.

My overnight buy order for First REIT at 76c was filled. My other overnight buy order at 74.5c was not filled although the unit price did go that low today.


Overnight buy order for AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT at 19.6c was filled. I thought that many people would want to buy more units of this REIT at 19.5c, the last low. So, I queued 1 bid higher at 19.6c.


Towards the end of the day, I also bought shares in ARA at $1.13 and units in Sabana REIT at 86.5c.

Like I said in my last blog post on ARA, I did not put in an overnight buy order at $1.17 which was the next support I identified if $1.22 should fold. I said I would rather wait and see. Today, ARA's volume was rather low and $1.13 was a good 9c lower than $1.22. Could we see ARA at $1.08 next?


As for Sabana REIT, I would like to get this closer to 83.5c, its last low. At 83.5c, it would be giving a distribution yield of 10.5%. 86.5c is a few bids higher.


Looking at the chart now, I think I should have stuck to the original plan and waited for its unit price to get closer to 83.5c. Well, who knows for sure? Could have a bullish harami in the next session. ;)

Good luck to us all.

Making your first million dollars in real estate investment: Dreams and nightmares.

Sunday, September 25, 2011

Often, we hear that investing in real estate is the fastest way to making the first million dollars.

We saw people in queues and offering blank cheques in buying frenzies for projects such as One Devonshire some two years ago. The buyers then would have bagged nice gains and many would have sold their properties by now.

Sometimes, the building specifications of the property do not even matter for buyers. Positive sentiments just drive them to pay whatever asking price is out there.

Building specifications? Yes, for example, when I buy a condominium, I will find out how many lifts serve each block and how many units are there per floor per block. This is very important to me because if there were too few lifts, the waiting time could be unbearably long especially if we were staying on a high floor.

A HDB point block has 2 lifts serving 25 floors and 4 units per floor . This means 1 lift for 48 units (remembering that ground level is the void deck). So, if a property has 36 floors and 3 units per floor, having 3 lifts is about right. We get 1 lift for 35 units.

So, the lift to units ratio is very important, wouldn't you think?

Apparently not. Southbank, a condominium along North Bridge Road, has 197 units in its residential block but only 3 lifts. This means 1 lift for almost 66 units. This ratio is worse than a HDB point block! I wouldn't buy a unit there but it does not mean that people who did would not make money from their purchase. Indeed, in two years, its price has appreciated a hefty 50% on average.

I also consider having ample parking lots essential. All too often, I hear friends living in some condominiums complaining that their visitors cannot find parking lots in their estates and some even got their wheels clamped for parking in lots designated for residents.

We see so many condominiums built with just 1 parking lot per unit these days. If a resident has two cars, he is in trouble. Of course, where are visitors going to park?

We see many condominiums built with enough parking lots for only 80% of the units just because the developments are a short distance from the nearest MRT station. If every resident owned a car, things could turn ugly.

We also see some condominiums these days with mechanical parking lots and I read that it takes 7 minutes for a car to be parked. Imagine if five people should come home at the same time. Could the fifth car's waiting time be 35 minutes?

Increasingly, we see newer condominiums being more and more marginal in that they are compromising on the day to day pragmatics. These are projects I would avoid but it does not mean that one would not make money in these projects, of course. It is just that if it is not a condo I would want to live in, I wouldn't buy it. Quite simple.

Of course, some would say that buying a piece of real estate is about location, location and location. Doesn't matter if it has enough lifts, parking lots or whether it is freehold or leasehold. I imagine this to be true for most but for me, it is more than just location.

Now, certain things I can see and analyse but certain things I can't. It is a bit like buying shares of companies. We can look at a developer's history and the project's specifications and asking price psf just like how we can look at a company's history, its numbers and its share price. However, there will always be things we cannot see.

I read in the news today that a very reputable developer in Singapore, Wheelock Properties, is being sued for S$14m "in compensation for defects that have been plaguing the estate for the last three years". We are talking about The Seaview.



Wheelock Properties is the developer of Ardmore Park, long regarded as the standard in luxury condominiums before SC Global came into the picture with even more grandiose developments. So, it came as a surprise to me that "in late 2009, building surveyors found at least 32 cases of defects in areas such as lift lobbies, the swimming pool, residential units and the basement car park.

"In addition, the MC claimed that the contractors did not carry out waterproofing properly in areas such as the basement car park, causing damage and safety risks.

"Residents said the same problem was occurring on the rooftops, which meant that higher-floor residents had problems of water seepage and water-stained ceilings and walls."

The Seaview was marketed as the Ardmore of the east and was a very pricey project. It still is. A 1,647 square feet four bedroom unit is asking for $2.5m today. With quality issues aplenty, I wonder if buyers would give it a wide berth. If we take a look at Property Guru's website, we see many trying to sell their units in The Seaview.


So, is buying condominiums developed by a reputable company always a good idea? Is buying new always better than buying old because the perception is that the property's condition would be relatively newer and that less repairs are required?

The article on The Seaview is quite detailed and I have only reproduced a small section of it. To read the whole article, click here.

I have very few blog posts on real estate investment, I realise, and I hope you have enjoyed this one, especially if you are thinking of taking that next step to invest in a condominium in the next few years.
 
Related posts:
1. Real estate as a hedge against inflation.
2. Money continues to flow into Singapore.

Double dip recession or just very slow growth?

Saturday, September 24, 2011

Stock markets around the world had a very bad week. Everyone it seems is expecting a global recession and the accompanying deflation.

In a truly deflationary environment, all assets will suffer and see their prices fall. Equities and precious metals were all sold down across the board, therefore.

However, reading an article in Bloomberg, it is interesting to note that in the USA, "railroads shipments are the highest in almost three years." This defies concerns of an impending double dip recession.


Art Hatfield, a transportation analyst in Memphis, Tennessee, at Morgan Keegan & Co: “We’re not seeing declines in rail volumes that are synonymous with a recession... We remain in a slow growth environment.”
Read article: here.

If we were to look at the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), we see it rising in recent weeks and I wrote a piece on whether it could be time to load up on shares of Courage Marine again not too long ago.


The suggestion is that there is an increase in demand for shipping capacity and because "dry bulk primarily consists of materials that function as raw material inputs to the production of intermediate or finished goods, ... the index is also seen as an efficient economic indicator of future economic growth and production. The BDI is termed a leading economic indicator because it predicts future economic activity." Source: Wikipedia.

So, is there going to be a double dip recession after all? There are analysts who believe that a recession is a given and some who believe that Europe will get its act together and a recession will be averted. With such conflicting signs, at this point in time, however, it is just a sea of opinions.

Personally, I do not believe in being overly bullish or overly bearish. I believe in being pragmatic. Putting all our chips on a single bet either way could be quite disastrous if we should be proven wrong.

What is being pragmatic? Knowing what the current conditions are, what kind of investments are likely to do better and act accordingly. It is about wealth preservation, if not growth.

Related posts:
1. Courage Marine: Added at 10.5c a share.
2. Should we be staying invested or in cash?
3. Sleep well at night with a plan.
4. Why do I not panic?

What the very rich are doing with their wealth?

I read an article provided by Bloomberg News that Singapore will become the world's top wealth management centre by 2013, surpassing Switzerland and London.


It looks like our tiny island nation is attracting a lot of wealth from around the world and we are not just talking about HNW individuals. We are talking about super HNW individuals and families!

These families are setting up family offices to manage their millions instead of entrusting their wealth to private bankers. They view private bankers as salesmen instead of custodians of their wealth.

Clinton Ang, 38, prefers to manage his family's wealth of about $100 million himself.  About 90% of his family's investable assets are in cash after he sold from October to March its investments in stocks, bonds and most property assets.


Some family offices cater to more than one family to gain economies of scale. It is said that it costs at least $1.5m a year to run a family office that includes an investment team. So, a family will need a minimum of $100 million to justify the expenses.

Personally, I know some very rich people but they never talk about their wealth. So, it is not easy to get a peek into the way they manage their money. Usually, those boasting about their wealth are the newly rich and who might have just attained their HNW status.

There is wealth and there is WEALTH.

ARA: Initiated long position at $1.22.

Friday, September 23, 2011

I initiated a long position in ARA today at $1.22 a share. This decision is based on my TA last evening. Fundamentally, at $1.22, the estimated dividend yield is about 4% but investing in ARA is primarily for growth.


The counter's share price touched a low of $1.20 before closing at $1.205 on the back of very high volume. Such high volume sell down usually has some momentum to follow through. So, we could see ARA's share price head lower next week.

Based on the TA I did last evening, the next supports are at $1.17 and $1.08.  However, seeing how strong the selling was today, there is a good chance that $1.17 will fold if it should be tested.

I am not putting in any overnight buy order, prefering to wait and see how things will unfold next week, given the strength of the selling.

What about the potential positive divergence? It is looking extremely dicey as the MACD took a nosedive today.

Although a fundamentally sound company, its share price could weaken further from here. It might be a good idea to wait for the dust to settle before adding to my newly created long position.

Related post:
ARA: Breaking support. Going lower?


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